Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

Now it get's interesting imo. This is current outlook superimposing macro levels (Weekly) onto short-term time frame (15M). Currently in between the 50 & 200 Week MAs, attempting to turn the former into support.



50 Week MA @ $24.739 and declining (bearish). 200 Week MA @ $25,012 and rising (bullish). Volume zone highlighted for context. Turning the 50 WMA into support is the key here.

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[gembitz]

/\25OOO floor spin here we go ~ left foot right foot \_-_-_/ boom

____RARE PEPE NFTS ON BTC CHAIN ORDINALS GOGOGOGO___

[Crypto Library]

This week or next week ??

[vroom]

This week or next week ??

today or tomorrow?

[jojo69]

"Well, I call it crypto shit. It's worthless, it's no good, it's crazy, it'll do nothing but harm, it’s antisocial to allow it,"

[JayJuanGee]

So My coin purchases have been 32x of fiat since nov 2022

As JJG suggested I am keeping these numbers separate from my mining earnings and gear purchases.

My goal will be a minimum of 200x units of purchased btc so I have 168x to go or 84 weeks of dca.

Yeah, but you have been pretty silent in regards to whether you were able to buy back the BTC that you sold at around sub $20k prices.  How did that work out?

All fine and dandy if you had $100k worth of BTC that you sold at or below $20k, and then you were able to buy $40k back below your sales price and you are scrambling to get back the other 60% at prices that are higher than your sales price.. even though you feel good about it.. you still end up losing and would have had been better off if you had not sold on the way down in the first place.

Another thing that you can proclaim is that your finances "are complicated" because your selling of BTC below $20k allowed you to be able to "invest in mining equipment" that had been way lower prices and opportunities that became available than such mining equipment had been higher prices prior to BTC's price dropping below $20k. .. so perhaps you will have had made up for your sub $20k sales of BTC in the long run so long as your mining ends up sufficiently paying off.. but perhaps, it is too complicated, and in reality, selling BTC below $20k was not such a great idea.. whether you used such proceeds to invest in mining equipment or not.

This week or next week ??

Nice little "gradual" and ongoing UPpity (maybe our starting base might be in the ballpark of $16,666-ish) since the beginning of the year... that is seemingly "scary" (for some peeps), no?

"Well, I call it crypto shit. It's worthless, it's no good, it's crazy, it'll do nothing but harm, it’s antisocial to allow it,"

Exactly!!!!

I don't like that word: "crypto" either.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

1.5x per year?

[Volgastallion]

GM........

......To drive some "unscalable blockchain" narrative, like "bitcoin may bloat up in size and slow down to halt s00n"-like stuff?
Just wondering.

Tick tock, next block.

Bitcoin gives no shits.

A new block every 10 minutes, give or take 5 minutes.


& GM to uie-pooie too.

...Well, I found out why the blockchain is clogged up with so many UTXOs that otherwise seem to have no function...  Ordinals/inscriptions.  Examples (these two aren't bad, but a lot of stupid stuff being posted):
https://ordinals.com/inscription/625d1f451777031065aaf1530ec7aecf5e4885f3b0c06b9fc5dbbc6aaf439d0di0  <== Bill Gates soon?
https://ordinals.com/inscription/fdad3bc7513e5522e3fbf69f5c03085df489fc7e27881c7ba64f7cadc5c6dccci0  <== a newspaper headline
https://ordinals.com/inscriptions  <== inscriptions explorer
I would (likely) be against ordinal inscriptions, as they do seem to slow things down, and Bitcoin's blockchain's best and highest value is for moving money.  IMO.
Edited for errors, geez that took a while...

I had to deposit some corn into Kraken yesterday. Was scared from what I saw on https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/.
At the end I paid a fee of ~$0.35 (@ 7sat/vb) to move ~0.2 BTC within 15minutes.
IMO this whole ordinal crap just lifted the base fee from 1sat/vb to 5-10sat/vb which is still incredibly cheap for what it is.
Me thinks it looks like the whole fee-market-mechanic built into Bitcoin is working as intended.

Even if mempool is having a huge queue right now, it is almost exclusively 1sat/vb transactions, pay a little more and things are as fine as they were before ordinals came along.
<thisisfine.jpg>

Exactamente...   A big nothing burger... those getting worked up about it are attacking bitcoin from my point of view... .. when believing there is some kind of "urgent" need to fix something (or to even think about fixing something) that is not a problem.. not broken.

Please return the account to the real JayJuanGee, its so easy to know he wasnt him, less than 458124211241215 words in a post on WO? No way. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

1.5x per year?

Why switch?

Weren't you a 2x per year kind of a guy?

[philipma1957]

1.2 a year is more than good enough.

2003 gold was 400 it is now 1800.  if it had done 1.2 a year we would be at 15,335


at 1.2 a year BTC  in 20 years.


16.70                         jan 2023
20.04                         jan 2024
24.048                        jan 2025
28.8576                      jan 2026
34.62912                    jan 2027
41.554944                  jan 2028
49.8659328                 jan 2029
59.83911936.             jan 2030
71.806943232>>>     jan 2031
86.1683318784>>>   Jan 2032
103.40199825408>>  jan 2033. ten years time

640k in 20 years time if it does 1.2%

[Phil_S]

Why switch?

Weren't you a 2x per year kind of a guy?

I'm pro-reality kind of guy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

Resistance is breaking down… We saw a brief burst through $25K but the market hasn’t been able to hold that level yet. As I stated before, I suspect if we do see a prolonged move above $25K and accumulation happening, we’re going to jump straight to $30K faster than anyone expects. Hopefully people were able to grab the FTX dip around $16K. I’ll admit I wish I bought more, but I’m happy to stick with the plan and watch it unfold.

[Gachapin]

1.2 a year is more than good enough.

2003 gold was 400 it is now 1800.  if it had done 1.2 a year we would be at 15,335


at 1.2 a year BTC  in 20 years.


16.70                         jan 2023
20.04                         jan 2024
24.048                        jan 2025
28.8576                      jan 2026
34.62912                    jan 2027
41.554944                  jan 2028
49.8659328                 jan 2029
59.83911936.             jan 2030
71.806943232>>>     jan 2031
86.1683318784>>>   Jan 2032
103.40199825408>>  jan 2033. ten years time

640k in 20 years time if it does 1.2%

gaaawd... philipma1957 get a grip... you are taking it way too far with you bearishness...

with this growth rate we won't even get another ATH in 10 years, when adjusted for inflation.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BreachOfEuphoria]

I wonder what the chances of Bitcoin falling to 23K again are

[OutOfMemory]

Where's proudhon?
Time to predict $1k... 
#HODL

[Biodom]

1.5x per year?

Interesting...it was 2X beforehand...now, maybe 1.5X per your suggestion, later could be 1.25-1.35X (maybe after the this cycle peak?).
Amazon did 35% average during 25 years, bitcoin could do better.

If after matching the last ATH it would be 35% yearly average, I would be happy.
If it has to be from now on, OK for the next 3 years, then great.

1.2 a year is more than good enough.

2003 gold was 400 it is now 1800.  if it had done 1.2 a year we would be at 15,335


at 1.2 a year BTC  in 20 years.


16.70                         jan 2023
20.04                         jan 2024
24.048                        jan 2025
28.8576                      jan 2026
34.62912                    jan 2027
41.554944                  jan 2028
49.8659328                 jan 2029
59.83911936.             jan 2030
71.806943232>>>     jan 2031
86.1683318784>>>   Jan 2032
103.40199825408>>  jan 2033. ten years time

640k in 20 years time if it does 1.2%

a small correction...50%/year until maybe 2027(?), then 35%

16.70K                        Jan 23
25.05                         Jan 24 (feels bearish, but OK)
37.575                       Jan 25
56.3625                     Jan 26 (feels low, but it is about 1 tril market cap)
84.54375                   Jan 27 (start of x1.35 appreciation)
114.1340625              Jan 28
154.081                     Jan 29
208.01                       Jan 30
280.81260                  Jan 31
379.097                      Jan 32
511.781K                    Jan 33 (ten years, 10 tril market cap, close to current gold's mcap)

To me, this is quite possible, but it is also possible that as the rest of the "crypto" collapses, we rip up.