Bitcoin Forum
May 25, 2024, 05:38:32 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

Pages: « 1 ... 31826 31827 31828 31829 31830 31831 31832 31833 31834 31835 31836 31837 31838 31839 31840 31841 31842 31843 31844 31845 31846 31847 31848 31849 31850 31851 31852 31853 31854 31855 31856 31857 31858 31859 31860 31861 31862 31863 31864 31865 31866 31867 31868 31869 31870 31871 31872 31873 31874 31875 [31876] 31877 31878 31879 31880 31881 31882 31883 31884 31885 31886 31887 31888 31889 31890 31891 31892 31893 31894 31895 31896 31897 31898 31899 31900 31901 31902 31903 31904 31905 31906 31907 31908 31909 31910 31911 31912 31913 31914 31915 31916 31917 31918 31919 31920 31921 31922 31923 31924 31925 31926 ... 33381 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26390175 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
OgNasty
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4746
Merit: 4286


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile WWW
March 11, 2023, 06:39:48 PM

I’ve started getting calls from friends, asking me how worried they should be about the current situation in crypto. I don’t know if that is a good thing as people are scared, and that signals the bottom, or if it is a horrible thing that we’re about to witness a global 2008 style collapse in all assets. My hope is that this is the time to buy when there’s blood in the streets but we will see.
Paashaas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3434
Merit: 4368



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 06:43:00 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), Torque (1)

Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3766
Merit: 3919



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 06:59:33 PM

I’ve started getting calls from friends, asking me how worried they should be about the current situation in crypto. I don’t know if that is a good thing as people are scared, and that signals the bottom, or if it is a horrible thing that we’re about to witness a global 2008 style collapse in all assets. My hope is that this is the time to buy when there’s blood in the streets but we will see.

Apart from the Circle, the area most affected is the venture capital, which is mostly nothing to do with "crypto".
So, you can tell them that reckless FED just shut down the world's engine of innovation, but yes, pizza and Coca-Cola are unaffected.
IMHO, collapse in all assets is more likely than not (or at least 50:50 chance), unless they manage to sell SVB to someone this weekend.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2184
Merit: 1778


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:01:16 PM


Explanation
Gachapin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1881


bitcoin retard


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:03:15 PM

I’ve started getting calls from friends, asking me how worried they should be about the current situation in crypto. I don’t know if that is a good thing as people are scared, and that signals the bottom, or if it is a horrible thing that we’re about to witness a global 2008 style collapse in all assets. My hope is that this is the time to buy when there’s blood in the streets but we will see.

same here. met a family member today (newcoiner).  recognized that confidence in Bitcoin is very low. I was asked if it would ever go up again...   Roll Eyes
Usually most people don't see global collapses coming, so I guess we're somewhere near the bottom... at least for BTC ... I hope
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3724
Merit: 10318


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:07:35 PM
Last edit: March 11, 2023, 07:25:48 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by Hueristic (1), Paashaas (1)

Please don't be mad at me guys Roll Eyes
I feel like BTC should go down further



and give me a chance to buy at more dip.

You surely deserve a batslappening for expressing that kind of a wish.



I don't feel bad when BTC goes down. I am holding a small portion now and trying to accumulate more Sats at a low price.

Yes.. no coiners and low coiners tend to feel like that.. but your feewings doesn't necessarily mean that all of us HODLers should have to suffer merely because you did not have enough time to pick up an additional 0.00062139 BTC in the past 8 months.

According to Bitcoin experts Bitcoin will go between 35k to 40k very soon.

Name those "experts"

Are those purported "bitcoin experts" in the room with us now?


What is "crypto?"  how would I know if I have put my money in "crypto" if I don't know what it be is?

I’ve started getting calls from friends, asking me how worried they should be about the current situation in crypto. I don’t know if that is a good thing as people are scared, and that signals the bottom, or if it is a horrible thing that we’re about to witness a global 2008 style collapse in all assets. My hope is that this is the time to buy when there’s blood in the streets but we will see.

Were you able to 'splainie 'splainie to those supposed "friends" what the fuck is "crypto?"

Is "crypto" in the room with us now?
Gachapin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1881


bitcoin retard


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:13:44 PM


fallout in the banking sector continues with SVB being shut down by the fed

ties to the USDC and Circle sent the stablecoin plummeting yesterday, de-pegging to $0.91 at one point and setting up a short squeeze on the btc pair,  which spiked over $26k on Kraken in late session trading.



https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-spikes-to-26k-in-usdc-terms-how-high-can-the-btc-short-squeeze-go


I never understood why people say that the collapse of stable coins would hurt Bitcoin in the short term.

For me it seems just logical that Bitcoin would go up in price.  I mean where else should the money from a collapsing stablecoin market go?
A part into fiat but the rest would go into the next stable and most secure coin, which is Bitcoin.
vapourminer
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4340
Merit: 3570


what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:14:05 PM

According to Bitcoin experts

"experts"





The only "Bitcoin expert" is (or was) Satoshi.

i thought he was referring to proudhon
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3766
Merit: 3919



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:34:11 PM


fallout in the banking sector continues with SVB being shut down by the fed

ties to the USDC and Circle sent the stablecoin plummeting yesterday, de-pegging to $0.91 at one point and setting up a short squeeze on the btc pair,  which spiked over $26k on Kraken in late session trading.



https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-spikes-to-26k-in-usdc-terms-how-high-can-the-btc-short-squeeze-go


I never understood why people say that the collapse of stable coins would hurt Bitcoin in the short term.

For me it seems just logical that Bitcoin would go up in price.  I mean where else should the money from a collapsing stablecoin market go?
A part into fiat but the rest would go into the next stable and most secure coin, which is Bitcoin.

right now, it mostly went to tether, which is erroneus, IMHO.
Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3570
Merit: 5043



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:48:17 PM

Lol. Of course they did.  Roll Eyes


https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1634281801739915282
Torque
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3570
Merit: 5043



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:51:13 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)



Oh the money printer is still open for business, it's just that no one wants to borrow at 5+% rates.

A return on nothing is still nothing.
dragonvslinux
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1666
Merit: 2204


Crypto Swap Exchange


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:53:13 PM
Last edit: September 10, 2023, 12:46:21 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Gachapin (1)


fallout in the banking sector continues with SVB being shut down by the fed

ties to the USDC and Circle sent the stablecoin plummeting yesterday, de-pegging to $0.91 at one point and setting up a short squeeze on the btc pair,  which spiked over $26k on Kraken in late session trading.



https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-spikes-to-26k-in-usdc-terms-how-high-can-the-btc-short-squeeze-go


I never understood why people say that the collapse of stable coins would hurt Bitcoin in the short term.

Because quite frankly people after daft. And they have short-term memory. That of UST de-pegging in 2022, not of USDT de-pegging in 2018 for example, and the clear difference of consequence.

For me it seems just logical that Bitcoin would go up in price.  I mean where else should the money from a collapsing stablecoin market go?

At the moment it's flowing more into USDT (ironic I know) than Bitcoin, or even USD, although there was an initial spike in price due to USDC dumping for Bitcoin with high volume. Stop buys I imagine.

A part into fiat but the rest would go into the next stable and most secure coin, which is Bitcoin.

Not convinced it's as simple as that. When UST de-pegged, there was significant reserves in Bitcoin at the time - 40K if not mistaken. So when the reserves were liquidated, it did cause price to dump, as there was selling pressure (direct affect). Whereas when USDT de-pegged in October 2018, price spiked to the upside by 15% - it was a positive for Bitcoin - mainly as at the time there wasn't an alternative stablecoin.

So really I'd say it depends on the situation, mainly based on the collateral of stablecoin reserves and whether it's in Bitcoin or fiat. In this case, it's fiat reserves. So in summary, despite the short-term spike to the upside today, price is so far up +1%. What does this mean? Nothing happened basically, just another day of consolidation around $20K. Bitcoin remains unaffected.

To say this is positive for Bitcoin because price is up +1% is nonsense, likewise if price was down -1%. It's just completely irrelevant imo, at least at present with current situation. The irony being that USDC is short 8% on reserves due to SVB, and USDC price was down around 8% (now 5% I see) before buyers stepped in (some big funds notably), so pretty much the "reserve loss" was priced in quite quickly.

Monday will end up being a dumb day if USDC price is <$1. Coinbase are planning to resume redemption 1:1 of USDC for USD, once banks are open again, so arbitrage will play out of buying USDC under $1 and selling 1:1 for dollar until the price returns to parity. Despite all the doom and gloomers out there expecting USDC to go to zero, the likelihood hood (right now) of that happening is very low.

TL:DR: USDC de-pegging in this scenario isn't good or bad for Bitcoin, it's simply irrelevant.

But sure, we can always claim that the SVB is bearish for Bitcoin when price is so far completely unaffected by news. Then if price drops in the coming days, we can blame it on SVB  Tongue
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3766
Merit: 3919



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 07:54:23 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)



Oh the money printer is still open for business, it's just that no one wants to borrow at 5+% rates.

A return on nothing is still nothing.

I describe it like this: "F-k around....and find out".
Toxic2040
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1792
Merit: 4141



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 08:00:19 PM



TL:DR: USDC de-pegging in this scenario isn't good or bad for Bitcoin, it's simply irrelevant.




+1 WOsMerit

nothing wrong with bitcoin thats for sure....just fucktards circling around rehypothecation

carry on
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2184
Merit: 1778


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 08:01:16 PM


Explanation
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3766
Merit: 3919



View Profile
March 11, 2023, 08:05:00 PM

Coinbase are planning to resume redemption 1:1 of USDC for USD, once banks are open again, so arbitrage will play out of buying USDC under $1 and selling 1:1 for dollar until the price returns to parity. Despite all the doom and gloomers out there expecting USDC to go to zero, the likelihood hood (right now) of that happening is very low.

TL:DR: USDC de-pegging in this scenario isn't good or bad for Bitcoin, it's simply irrelevant.


Coinbase is just being optimistic. i would be surprised if they do so, although some people have said that even in the WORST case scenario (no buyer for SVB), FEDs would immediately issue a 62% 'dividend' with eventual recovery up to 94%.
So, it that case Circle gets 0.62X3.3=2.05 bil, with the shortfall "just" 1.254bil, which is about 3%, which later (1-2 years) becomes only about $200mil (6% of 3.3 bil).
Since Circle is earning about 1.56 bil/year on it's Treasuries, it is a situation that theoretically should resolve positively.

TL;DR If numbers are similar to what I posted, USDC might recover to about 0.97 by Monday.
dragonvslinux
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1666
Merit: 2204


Crypto Swap Exchange


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 08:16:29 PM
Last edit: March 12, 2023, 03:02:21 AM by dragonvslinux
Merited by vapourminer (1), Gachapin (1)

Coinbase are planning to resume redemption 1:1 of USDC for USD, once banks are open again, so arbitrage will play out of buying USDC under $1 and selling 1:1 for dollar until the price returns to parity. Despite all the doom and gloomers out there expecting USDC to go to zero, the likelihood hood (right now) of that happening is very low.

TL:DR: USDC de-pegging in this scenario isn't good or bad for Bitcoin, it's simply irrelevant.


Coinbase is just being optimistic. i would be surprised if they do so, although some people have said that even in the WORST case scenario (no buyer for SVB), FEDs would immediately issue a 62% 'dividend' with eventual recovery up to 94%.

Coinbase doesn't care about SVB. They'll take the L imo and deal with it overtime. They have 5 other banks and fortunately only had 8% exposure ($3.3b) out of $40b in SVB.
You could say they got lucky... I would. Could have been more like 13% if it was split equally between the 6 banks they use. Or 50% if only two banks!
Then they would have been completely f**ked...

So, it that case Circle gets 0.62X3.3=2.05 bil, with the shortfall "just" 1.254bil, which is about 3%, which later (1-2 years) becomes about $200mil (6% of 3.3 bil).
Since Circle is earning about 1.56 bil/year on it's Treasuries, it is a situation sthat theoretically should resolve positively.

In this case, at worst, they lost 2 year of income then? I think they'll deal with it. Take the L and move on, maybe hope for the 62% compensation. After all Circle = Coinbase, so still lots of income.

The only real imminent concern would be USDC circulating supply dropping below $3.3 billion (-92%), as presumably that's what they can''t cover (at least not yet without a loan). That's why there will be selling from customers, but it'd take 90%+ redeeming for dollar for there to be a significant liquidity issue it seems. Meanwhile, I personally think they'd manage to secure a loan if that was happening.

Also, there are big VCs who stepped in to buy at $0.92 - almost as short-term loan - looking to redeem their USDC 1:1 for dollars on Monday. Ie they don't need USDC to go back to $1, they will just redeem 1:1. Then buy again presumably if USDC is still below $1, and recycle arbitrage... Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I don't see this as an FTX-style enormous hole in bank balances. We're talking about a 8% liquidity loss.



TL;DR If numbers are similar to what I posted, USDC might recover to about 0.97 by Monday.

I know you said Monday, but the past hour it's already back to $0.98 !
Sure it could be below $0.97 by Monday, but even so...
Discount evaporating fast.
FUD is passing.
Gachapin
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1881


bitcoin retard


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 08:40:41 PM

...

Oh yes... thanks.  You are absolutely right,  Bitcoin would very well be negatively effected by a stablecoin crash, if it was held as collateral by the stablecoin company.  
How did I miss that thought, when we just had the Luna debacle...

Would be interesting to know how many Bitcoins are used as collateral for the different stablecoins.  Just to get a feeling for the direct risk involved for the Bitcoin market.

Intersting thing is, a certain part of that stablecoin collateral BTC would be bought up by the very customers fleeing the collapsing stablecoin...  
So if that buying outweighed the selling of the BTC collateral, price would technically not be negatively affected from that side ...maybe

ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2184
Merit: 1778


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 09:01:21 PM


Explanation
dragonvslinux
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1666
Merit: 2204


Crypto Swap Exchange


View Profile
March 11, 2023, 09:03:31 PM

...

Oh yes... thanks.  You are absolutely right,  Bitcoin would very well be negatively effected by a stablecoin crash, if it was held as collateral by the stablecoin company.  
How did I miss that thought, when we just had the Luna debacle...

Probably because it was very much a black swan event worth forgetting  Tongue
Kind of reminds me of BitConnect in 2018, getting into the Top 10 on CMC and being 100% ponzi as well.
Then blowing up spectacularly...

Would be interesting to know how many Bitcoins are used as collateral for the different stablecoins.

As far as I know, and I'm far from expert here, there is very little exposure to Bitcoin from stablecoins.
DAI has a very small amount in Wrapped BTC, USDD is backed by Tron I believe.
The rest are either fiat-backed or too insignificant if they do back with BTC.

Just to get a feeling for the direct risk involved for the Bitcoin market.

Basically very little, apart from Wrapped BTC which is $3b / 150K BTC locked up, though is redeemable 1:1 and has proof of reserves. So I won't worry about it.
WBTC would be the only risk I guess, but is different as not affected by Bitcoin's price, as it's a "stablecoin" pegged to BTC not dollar.
Pages: « 1 ... 31826 31827 31828 31829 31830 31831 31832 31833 31834 31835 31836 31837 31838 31839 31840 31841 31842 31843 31844 31845 31846 31847 31848 31849 31850 31851 31852 31853 31854 31855 31856 31857 31858 31859 31860 31861 31862 31863 31864 31865 31866 31867 31868 31869 31870 31871 31872 31873 31874 31875 [31876] 31877 31878 31879 31880 31881 31882 31883 31884 31885 31886 31887 31888 31889 31890 31891 31892 31893 31894 31895 31896 31897 31898 31899 31900 31901 31902 31903 31904 31905 31906 31907 31908 31909 31910 31911 31912 31913 31914 31915 31916 31917 31918 31919 31920 31921 31922 31923 31924 31925 31926 ... 33381 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!