Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[EuroTrash]

Did you check the "about us"? Their biographies are exactly the same WORD BY WORD. It's like they are one person with two bodies, no unique experiences or motivations or whatever.

CAMERON WINKLEVOSS
Chief Executive Officer
@WINKLEVOSS

Cameron Winklevoss is a long-term investor in Bitcoin and other emerging technologies. In 2004, he graduated from Harvard University with an A.B. in Economics. In 2010, Mr. Winklevoss received a Masters of Business Administration from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford. Mr. Winklevoss represented the United States at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.
TYLER WINKLEVOSS
President
@TYLERWINKLEVOSS

Tyler Winklevoss is a long-term investor in Bitcoin and other emerging technologies. In 2004, he graduated from Harvard University with an A.B. in Economics. In 2010, Mr. Winklevoss received a Masters of Business Administration from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford. Mr. Winklevoss represented the United States at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.

How fucking creepy is that?

They are just trying to be funny. After all they built their public personas that way.

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[Rampion]

EuroTrash: it looks extremely creepy to me, not funny at all. It looks very deranged to me...

But I guess it's just a matter of tastes

[dreamspark]

Price is climbing on bitcoinbuilder

[Vycid]

The more I look at the MTGox situation the more I am convinced they are in serious financial trouble. It has all the indicators of a company delaying the inevitable. By the way I find that the market valuation of MTGoxBTC in terms of BTC currently at 0.648 at https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ very high.

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

One of two things is going on here: a wealthy insider knows Gox is totally empty and is selling at any price, or people are being irrational and stupid as usual. I'm going with the latter.

I picked up 39 goxcoin at 0.54 yesterday. No concerns.

[Davyd05]

So how long has CaVirtex been offering LTC?

a few hours

It was nice to hear that opposed to Cad regulations coming down on us.

[MAbtc]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

[Vycid]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

It's a fair point. I was assuming, considering that Gox has been printing an obscene amount of money for many months in a row now without any visible growth in their business, that they do not hold external debt.

If that's not true, I'm still pretty sure account holders are a senior debt class. So the investors get their money after we get our money. I'm almost positive that's how it works for banks, at least, and I'm guessing it works similarly for exchanges.

The part where it gets unclear is whether Bitcoin debt will get treated as legal tender. If Gox does have debt, and the court rules that Bitcoin isn't legal tender, then the investors will get their money after the cash depositors but before the bitcoin depositors.

Kind of a fascinating scenario, really.

In any event, I expect to eventually get most of my bitcoins back, in the worst case, and that's not really so bad since I just doubled my coins by buying into Gox. And I wouldn't consider it a particularly bad thing that I won't have the option to panic sell those coins for a couple years. Takes some stress off.

Oh, yeah, and I doubled my coins without triggering a taxable event.

[ArticMine]

The more I look at the MTGox situation the more I am convinced they are in serious financial trouble. It has all the indicators of a company delaying the inevitable. By the way I find that the market valuation of MTGoxBTC in terms of BTC currently at 0.648 at https://bitcoinbuilder.com/ very high.

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

One of two things is going on here: a wealthy insider knows Gox is totally empty and is selling at any price, or people are being irrational and stupid as usual. I'm going with the latter.

I picked up 39 goxcoin at 0.54 yesterday. No concerns.

Yes. One reason is that MTGox has added payment providers recently but only for deposits and not for withdrawals. https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20131219.html, https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20131205.html

When you have problems with withdrawals supposedly because of procedures at the bank, why not not add MoneyPolo for withdrawals first? As for the BTC and now even JPY withdrawals issues. The indicators are getting clearer by the day.

[ArticMine]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

[Vycid]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.

[ArticMine]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.

No. it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy and then the BTC/JPY rate sky rockets. How this is handled during a bankruptcy can create a real legal mess between the creditors holding BTC claims and the creditors holding fiat claims.

[Vycid]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.

it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy

Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?

I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.

It really seems like people are leaning toward expecting the absolute worst from MTGox, which is funny because Bitcoin itself could crater at any time. Holding bitcoin (of any type) takes a certain amount of faith.

(Speaking of which, Gox's issues could just as easily be solved by a drop in BTC/JPY.)

[MAbtc]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.

it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy

Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?

I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.

That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.

So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.

What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex? 

[ArticMine]

That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.

So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.

Precisely, which is why a BTC obligation holder could end up getting only a few milliBTC or even only a few satoshi on the BTC.

[empowering]

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-atm-gets-surprise-launch-biggest-boston-train-station/

[Vycid]

So your thesis is that MtGox is not only insolvent, they have less than 64.8% of their deposits?

In the case of shutdown by regulators and bankruptcy, where are trading account holders in the line of creditors? Legit question -- I do not know. This is assuming that customer funds are not held in trust -- obviously if Gox is insolvent, this is the case.

If Gox did have 64.8% of deposits in such a situation, do you think trading account holders would receive 64.8% of their money? I don't.

And how many years later would they receive compensation? This is not a matter of straight probability.

One more issue here for those holding MTGox obligations denominated in BTC is that BTC could easily sky-rocket with respect to JPY while MTGox is in bankruptcy. So the BTC MTGox obligation holder may just get a few millibits on the BTC.

That implies MTGox doesn't have any BTC holdings, which I don't think anyone believes. Their assets are frozen when they enter bankruptcy proceedings.

it means the receiver liquidates the BTC for JPY during the bankruptcy

Why is this any more likely to happen than the receiver immediately acting to mitigate risk of BTC/JPY rate fluctuations for all BTC obligations (via options etc)?

I'm not a bankruptcy expert but that seems like something a receiver would do immediately upon assuming control of a multinational with obligations in multiple currencies.

That would seem unorthodox. Logically, all assets would be liquidated to JPY in bankruptcy. I see no reason why this would differ for BTC assets.

So my thinking is that Goxcoin holders in this situation risk being compensated years later for their Goxcoin holdings, denominated in JPY at the original liquidation price.

What will regulators do -- pour all the BTC into Mpex?  

I'm sure there's large holders that would be willing to write up some off-exchange contracts. And as for reasoning: the obvious volatility of BTC assets. I am totally unsure of precedent though, especially in Japan (I just found a PDF of a Brazilian bankruptcy proceeding where the debtors were required to be paid in the original denomination unless they indicated otherwise, but I doubt that's helpful).

In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jojo69]

Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?

vanishingly unlikely

[delphic]

How fucking creepy is that?

What I wonder about is whether they both turn up for publicity photoshoots and meetings.

I mean, if you are multimillionaires, your time is valuable, right? And if you are a clone of your bro, you are unlikely to be able to add anything to what you bro says in news conferences, right?

So if I were a Winkle, I would take it in turns in the business meetings, publicity stunts, etc., and just take a large mirror along and stick it next to me in place of my twin. The other half of the time I would sit on a beach drinking martinis while my bro did his shift.

If this pic isn't just one photoshopped Winkle, these guys need to learn about time management....



And maybe wear different ties.

[Adrian-x]

In any event, this ignores the bigger logical leap I'm not following: how did MTGox end up insolvent? They certainly appear profitable. Is the theory that they were totally wiped out by tx mutability?

doubt it, but they could have funds locked by law enforcement for other reasons.