Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Coinshot]

Good for him, or the same could have happened with BTC  

I have missed the Newton's laws on Bubble Evolution in school. Or maybe he was too busy trying to earn a living after that to publish the results.

[oda.krell]

Just wait until monday and you will see what is going to happen after this yet another wash volume chinese fake "pump".

Where do you actually see so-called "Volume" you are talking about?
Both the sides don't actually have any volume these days as compared to the previous ones whilst the auction was not even announced. The crash is actually "DONE" and I think it's time for the whales to wake up and pump, you know, "weak hands got out". And yes, I don't think there might come something major on Monday.

Not the volume you had in mind I guess, but this made go back to look at long term volume... Short version: doing pretty well currently, both in terms of BTC volume and USD volume, though the latter is still far behind the peak in late 2013/early 2014.

The following is Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E, BTC and USD. BTC volume is now the highest it has been in about a year (and even in USD terms beats the mid-2014 period). Compared to the late stages of the 2013 bubble however, it's still behind (and that's excluding mtgox volume that was a major factor in late 2013).

[Omikifuse]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

[Coinshot]

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

Its not going to 160. However, I feel it may easily go to low 200s. There is still a lot of time left before we permanently leave this territory.

[JorgeStolfi]

Newton was, in modern terminology, a 'kissless virgin' from what we know about his personal life. You certain that's something to aspire for? I mean, sure, amazing achievements by a single human mind, but...

On that score he wins, alas. 

[Hfertig]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Just wait until monday and you will see what is going to happen after this yet another wash volume chinese fake "pump".

Where do you actually see so-called "Volume" you are talking about?
Both the sides don't actually have any volume these days as compared to the previous ones whilst the auction was not even announced. The crash is actually "DONE" and I think it's time for the whales to wake up and pump, you know, "weak hands got out". And yes, I don't think there might come something major on Monday.

Not the volume you had in mind I guess, but this made go back to look at long term volume... Short version: doing pretty well currently, both in terms of BTC volume and USD volume, though the latter is still far behind the peak in late 2013/early 2014.

The following is Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E, BTC and USD. BTC volume is now the highest it has been in about a year (and even in USD terms beats the mid-2014 period). Compared to the late stages of the 2013 bubble however, it's still behind (and that's excluding mtgox volume that was a major factor in late 2013).

Mmh, in fiat terms the volume just seems still kinda low to me. On chinese exchanges (why didn't you put them in there? if there is fake volume in there or not we are talking about increases/decreases in volume, so we shouldn't care) there was a lot of interest in the $300-$400 area before the last crash (especially on OKCoin). Now there seems to be less interest to play the current price range.

^The bottom volume in USD is the same as the $475 megabulltrap.



Same for other exchanges.

[kurious]

...  I would dare say that my "bubble model" is at least Copernican ... Maybe even a bit Newtonian... 

Bless him, but he is no Isaac Newton.

Well, for one thing, I looked into alchemy too.  I even have my own theory about the Emerald Tablet. 

But I am afraid wikipedia does not describe you as one of the 'most influential scientists of all time'.  Keep at it though, Jorge. One day you might apply your undoubted intellect to something useful, perhaps more valuable to mankind than your statistical analysis of when China's Bitcoin exchanges are asleep..? 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[oda.krell]

Just wait until monday and you will see what is going to happen after this yet another wash volume chinese fake "pump".

Where do you actually see so-called "Volume" you are talking about?
Both the sides don't actually have any volume these days as compared to the previous ones whilst the auction was not even announced. The crash is actually "DONE" and I think it's time for the whales to wake up and pump, you know, "weak hands got out". And yes, I don't think there might come something major on Monday.

Not the volume you had in mind I guess, but this made go back to look at long term volume... Short version: doing pretty well currently, both in terms of BTC volume and USD volume, though the latter is still far behind the peak in late 2013/early 2014.

The following is Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E, BTC and USD. BTC volume is now the highest it has been in about a year (and even in USD terms beats the mid-2014 period). Compared to the late stages of the 2013 bubble however, it's still behind (and that's excluding mtgox volume that was a major factor in late 2013).

Mmh, in fiat terms the volume just seems still kinda low to me. On chinese exchanges (why didn't you put them in there? if there is fake volume in there or not we are talking about increases/decreases in volume, so we shouldn't care) there was a lot of interest in the $300-$400 area before the last crash (especially on OKCoin). Now there seems to be less interest to play the current price range.

^The bottom volume in USD is the same as the $475 megabulltrap.



Same for other exchanges.

>On chinese exchanges (why didn't you put them in there?

I'm skeptical about comparing zero fee volume to non-zero fee volume.

To be clear: for short to mid term trading purposes, I absolutely don't doubt the relevance of CNY volume.

But for the longer term view of market volume, in my opinion, the "costly" volume of the three big USD exchanges is a good measure of how much money is "flowing into the market". (Sidenote: I really need to include Coinbase from now on)

That said, I know just discarding CNY (or permanently zero-fee USD) volume is not ideal. I have been trying to come up with ways to 'discount' the Chinese volume by some factor to make it comparable, but nothing ever really came out of it that looked satisfying to me.


Anyway, I didn't put the monthly average in the above graph (which shows it more clearly), but the point I was getting at: in terms of both BTC and USD volume, we're doing better now than during the previous period that can be considered to be the closest attempt of the market to leave the bear market behind, the May/June breakout - the last time we closed above weekly SMA20, for example.

I take that as a cautiously bullish sign, as in: I don't take it for granted that we're leaving the bear market this time, but I do think chances are higher for it to succeed now than they were in June 2014.

[Omikifuse]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

[Hfertig]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

[dreamspark]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

Thats if there's any left at all. I'd hate to thing how much money has been spent on legal fees et al.

[Hfertig]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

Thats if there's any left at all. I'd hate to thing how much money has been spent on legal fees et al.

There is certainly 200.000 coins left and I guess cash as well. This was not stolen... but even if they would need to cover for fees with the bitcoins left, they will need to sell them.

[Omikifuse]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

Thats if there's any left at all. I'd hate to thing how much money has been spent on legal fees et al.

I doubt very much will be left after legal fees and employer payments.

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm skeptical about comparing zero fee volume to non-zero fee volume.

To be clear: for short to mid term trading purposes, I absolutely don't doubt the relevance of CNY volume.

But for the longer term view of market volume, in my opinion, the "costly" volume of the three big USD exchanges is a good measure of how much money is "flowing into the market". (Sidenote: I really need to include Coinbase from now on)

That said, I know just discarding CNY (or permanently zero-fee USD) volume is not ideal. I have been trying to come up with ways to 'discount' the Chinese volume by some factor to make it comparable, but nothing ever really came out of it that looked satisfying to me.

Is there a relation between exchange volume and the amount of money coming into the system (or being drained from it)?  Volume is generally up when the price is changing, up or down; and that may be cause and effect at the same time.  But figuring ot the net input money flow seems to be a complicated computation at least...

I would think that, in China, money is steadily leaving the system: Chinese traders seem to be gradually selling and taking their cash out of the exchanges.  This feeling is not based on the exchange volumes, but simply becuse of the decay of the China bubble (which seems to be too fast to be due to miner dumping alone).   The rest of the world should still be a net buyer, but there is no data, really, and apparently it can barely absorb what the Chinese and the miners are selling.

 

[Hfertig]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

Thats if there's any left at all. I'd hate to thing how much money has been spent on legal fees et al.

I doubt very much will be left after legal fees and employer payments.

There is actually 698.246.328 JPY (5,795 mln USD) and 202.106 Bitcoin left. Plus anything that they will get back from tibanne, if any. Hence I do expect some kind of distribuition to creditors. Distributing the cash will surely be more difficult.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

[Hfertig]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

[inca]

Just wait until monday and you will see what is going to happen after this yet another wash volume chinese fake "pump".

Where do you actually see so-called "Volume" you are talking about?
Both the sides don't actually have any volume these days as compared to the previous ones whilst the auction was not even announced. The crash is actually "DONE" and I think it's time for the whales to wake up and pump, you know, "weak hands got out". And yes, I don't think there might come something major on Monday.

Not the volume you had in mind I guess, but this made go back to look at long term volume... Short version: doing pretty well currently, both in terms of BTC volume and USD volume, though the latter is still far behind the peak in late 2013/early 2014.

The following is Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E, BTC and USD. BTC volume is now the highest it has been in about a year (and even in USD terms beats the mid-2014 period). Compared to the late stages of the 2013 bubble however, it's still behind (and that's excluding mtgox volume that was a major factor in late 2013).

Mmh, in fiat terms the volume just seems still kinda low to me. On chinese exchanges (why didn't you put them in there? if there is fake volume in there or not we are talking about increases/decreases in volume, so we shouldn't care) there was a lot of interest in the $300-$400 area before the last crash (especially on OKCoin). Now there seems to be less interest to play the current price range.

^The bottom volume in USD is the same as the $475 megabulltrap.



Same for other exchanges.

Wanderer thinks we are going down because the volume on stamp (dying post hack) is lower than during a blow off bubble top. He ignores the fact that on finex (the main bitcoin exchange) volume is up hugely in the last few months. He will be surprised when the price glides past 300 and continues upwards..