Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm skeptical about comparing zero fee volume to non-zero fee volume.

To be clear: for short to mid term trading purposes, I absolutely don't doubt the relevance of CNY volume.

But for the longer term view of market volume, in my opinion, the "costly" volume of the three big USD exchanges is a good measure of how much money is "flowing into the market". (Sidenote: I really need to include Coinbase from now on)

That said, I know just discarding CNY (or permanently zero-fee USD) volume is not ideal. I have been trying to come up with ways to 'discount' the Chinese volume by some factor to make it comparable, but nothing ever really came out of it that looked satisfying to me.

Is there a relation between exchange volume and the amount of money coming into the system (or being drained from it)?  Volume is generally up when the price is changing, up or down; and that may be cause and effect at the same time.  But figuring ot the net input money flow seems to be a complicated computation at least...

I would think that, in China, money is steadily leaving the system: Chinese traders seem to be gradually selling and taking their cash out of the exchanges.  This feeling is not based on the exchange volumes, but simply becuse of the decay of the China bubble (which seems to be too fast to be due to miner dumping alone).   The rest of the world should still be a net buyer, but there is no data, really, and apparently it can barely absorb what the Chinese and the miners are selling.

 

[Hfertig]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

Thats if there's any left at all. I'd hate to thing how much money has been spent on legal fees et al.

I doubt very much will be left after legal fees and employer payments.

There is actually 698.246.328 JPY (5,795 mln USD) and 202.106 Bitcoin left. Plus anything that they will get back from tibanne, if any. Hence I do expect some kind of distribuition to creditors. Distributing the cash will surely be more difficult.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

[Hfertig]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

[inca]

Just wait until monday and you will see what is going to happen after this yet another wash volume chinese fake "pump".

Where do you actually see so-called "Volume" you are talking about?
Both the sides don't actually have any volume these days as compared to the previous ones whilst the auction was not even announced. The crash is actually "DONE" and I think it's time for the whales to wake up and pump, you know, "weak hands got out". And yes, I don't think there might come something major on Monday.

Not the volume you had in mind I guess, but this made go back to look at long term volume... Short version: doing pretty well currently, both in terms of BTC volume and USD volume, though the latter is still far behind the peak in late 2013/early 2014.

The following is Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E, BTC and USD. BTC volume is now the highest it has been in about a year (and even in USD terms beats the mid-2014 period). Compared to the late stages of the 2013 bubble however, it's still behind (and that's excluding mtgox volume that was a major factor in late 2013).

Mmh, in fiat terms the volume just seems still kinda low to me. On chinese exchanges (why didn't you put them in there? if there is fake volume in there or not we are talking about increases/decreases in volume, so we shouldn't care) there was a lot of interest in the $300-$400 area before the last crash (especially on OKCoin). Now there seems to be less interest to play the current price range.

^The bottom volume in USD is the same as the $475 megabulltrap.



Same for other exchanges.

Wanderer thinks we are going down because the volume on stamp (dying post hack) is lower than during a blow off bubble top. He ignores the fact that on finex (the main bitcoin exchange) volume is up hugely in the last few months. He will be surprised when the price glides past 300 and continues upwards..

[billyjoeallen]

There are about 4M$ new longs since the start of this rally (~240$ some 10 days ago), this means about 15k BTC will have to be sold if the rally ends, just to cover those longs.

And 50000 coins from the auction which will only settle on monday. I guess they were bought at a discount to the current price. Lets see how long this will be a discount

so the short term outcome most likely is a dump?

Anyway I doubt BTC will visit the lower levels from the start of the year.

tbh... I don't know, but I would not be surprised of it. I am repeating myself, but there is another auction and the Gox liquidation which currently appear to happen this year.

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.

Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

you are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

I'm afraid you're likely to get very little if anything back.The lawyers will get paid first and if they get paid in bitcoin, they will sell immediately.  Karpeles fucked everybody and I hope he dies painfully.

[inca]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Wanderer thinks we are going down because the volume on stamp (dying post hack) is lower than during a blow off bubble top. He ignores the fact that on finex (the main bitcoin exchange) volume is up hugely in the last few months. He will be surprised when the price glides past 300 and continues upwards..

Did I say anything about what the price will do next?

We were talking about all exchanges combined, The bitfinex volume in USD is not that different compared to the one during the $300-$400 range, only slightly, and it could be due to the fact that more people are using the exchange (compared to bitstamp for example). If you combine all volumes measured in fiat on all exchanges (and I added chinese ones even if oda doesn't think that's a good idea), there is less volume overall now than in the $300-$400 range before the last crash.
That's all I said.

What do you mean with "main bitcoin exchange"? what criterion are you using? Certainly not volume. You telling me that the volume on Huobi and OKCoin is in part "fake" doesn't tell me if the volume on bitfinex is bigger than the "legit" part of the volume on chinese exchanges...

There is no such thing as a "main bitcoin exchange" right now by the way.

[Hfertig]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.

Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.

[Tzupy]

Dump is getting late to the party, makes me wonder if it will happen at all, and I'll go to sleep soon anyway.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Dump is getting late to the party, makes me wonder if it will happen at all, and I'll go to sleep soon anyway.

Wake Up! Wake Up! Its starting!!!  No, wait. Sorry. Its a push, not a dump. My bad. Go back to sleep....

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.  Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

You are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

The trustee will get a fat paycheck and will spend a few million on consultants and other services, but most of the 200'000 BTC and cash will be distributed.

Indeed it is not known yet how the claims will be computed, nor who will be allowed to claim.  It is very likely that claimants will have to fully identify themselves; if nothing else, to exclude the former management and relatives, and perhaps users connected to fraudulent trading, if any are identified.  

It is also not known yet whether the BTC can be returned as BTC, or whether they will have to be auctioned and all payments will have to be in JPY.  The trustee seems willing to return the BTC, and, if that is possible, Kraken will probably handle the distribution; but the Court will have to approve the refund plan, and the law may not allow BTC payments.  In any case, the trustee has until September 2015 to validate all the claims, so the distribution cannot begin until then.  If the Court and trustee opt for an auction, it could occur before that date, though.

[Hfertig]

The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money.  Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year

You are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.

The trustee will get a fat paycheck and will spend a few million on consultants and other services, but most of the 200'000 BTC and cash will be distributed.

Indeed it is not known yet how the claims will be computed, nor who will be allowed to claim.  It is very likely that claimants will have to fully identify themselves; if nothing else, to exclude the former management and relatives, and perhaps users connected to fraudulent trading, if any are identified.  

It is also not known yet whether the BTC can be returned as BTC, or whether they will have to be auctioned and all payments will have to be in JPY.  The trustee seems willing to return the BTC, and, if that is possible, Kraken will probably handle the distribution; but the Court will have to approve the refund plan, and the law may not allow BTC payments.  In any case, the trustee has until September 2015 to validate all the claims, so the distribution cannot begin until then.  If the Court and trustee opt for an auction, it could occur before that date, though.

thanks for that. That was new to me !

[Sitarow]

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

thanks for that. That was new to me !

I am aware of this thread about the state of the MtGOX bankruptcy, there may be other threads here or in other forums.  However, there is not much more information in that thread than what is available at the former MtGOX site, now controlled by the trustee.

Most documents in that site are in Japanese, but they generally include a good (non-official) English translation.  Just keep scrolling the PDF file.

[maku]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.

Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.

Something new, people are predicting dump. They always are. But as we all can see price stabilization is a fact. People waited for price to his $250+ mark since the beginning of 2015 now when price is finally there we have only one obstacle to beat $300. Dump will not happen instead I expect slight increase of value.

[aztecminer]

People predicting a dump?

I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.

how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?

14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.

Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.

Something new, people are predicting dump. They always are. But as we all can see price stabilization is a fact. People waited for price to his $250+ mark since the beginning of 2015 now when price is finally there we have only one obstacle to beat $300. Dump will not happen instead I expect slight increase of value.

i do not believe we are ready to buy our boats yet .. instead i think we will see lows again before the next auction. today is the 'MIT pump' and that is why we stay high but as soon as no one is looking down we will go again ... this intelligence comes from rock solid observations ... and gimpple is staying low below .03 because they are gimped atm...the obamaturd making them wait a long long time. stellar is broken and cannot be useful because their ceo is goxxed .... u might can maybe find some usefulness from LTC on tuesdays and every other thursdays ..