Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Morecoin Freeman]

Fucking Fed.

[hdbuck]

[Patel]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

[billyjoeallen]

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/17/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

lol, how surprising.
i thought the US revived its "growth" and that its economy was "healthy" as ever?

Rates are going to go negative before they go up (which is prolly never).  The banks have effectively zero reserves if you account for underperforming loans, so the only capital they have to lend out is money they borrow from the Fed at lower interest rates than they charge.  There is no way out of this trap. If they book the loan losses, they become (or more accurately are revealed to be) insolvent.  

It's not a fractional reserve system anymore. It's a zero reserve system kept on life support by a zero interest rate policy.  There is no real capital formation, only loans available with the source ultimately everybody who holds any amount of cash.  Money conjured from thin air is value stolen from existing currency holders.

No wonder we saw this BTC spike today. Fiat is radioactive and you need to get rid of it as fast as possible and park wealth in anything that will hold it's value.  I got a call today from out of the blue from a finance company offering to lend me money with no credit check.  I wasn't following the news. Now I know why they are getting that desperate.  There are no credit-worthy borrowers left who want to borrow, so they are pushing out to subprime again.  Just like in 2007.  Madness.  

[SmoothCurves]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

The crashes happen on or very near election years. See: 1987, 2000, 2008, 2016 (probably)

[adamstgBit]

lol nice one

[Fatman3001]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

The crashes happen on or very near election years. See: 1987, 2000, 2008, 2016 (probably)

It will be between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. What could go wrong?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[PoolMinor]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

The crashes happen on or very near election years. See: 1987, 2000, 2008, 2016 (probably)

Don't forget the SHEMITAH.

[xyzzy099]

The banks have effectively zero reserves

Uhm, the last time I looked, they had about $2.5 trillion in excess reserves (that is, above and beyond what they are legally required to hold).

[macsga]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

Often claimed the very same about DOW. There's absolutely no difference if the top is 5K 15K or 50K as several people have predicted in the past. It's nothing but a number. What is truly at stake is WHERE the excess money is at? And most importantly, what the one(s) who has the pile is gonna do with it?

Doom? Nah. Just ordinary manipulation of the whole planet.

[tommorisonwebdesign]

Everyone yells doom for the past so many years, and it just doesn't happen.

I am convinced the dollar collapse, market crash, and all the other doom bullshit is not gonna happen anytime in the near future.

They are gonna milk this bubble as long as they can.

Often claimed the very same about DOW. There's absolutely no difference if the top is 5K 15K or 50K as several people have predicted in the past. It's nothing but a number. What is truly at stake is WHERE the excess money is at? And most importantly, what the one(s) who has the pile is gonna do with it?

Doom? Nah. Just ordinary manipulation of the whole planet.

The dollar is probably not going to collapse for quite a while. China's stock market may crash, the global wealth gets shuffled, and the price of Bitcoin goes up. Best times to sell as far as I'm concerned.

[billyjoeallen]

The banks have effectively zero reserves

Uhm, the last time I looked, they had about $2.5 trillion in excess reserves (that is, above and beyond what they are legally required to hold).

Congratulations on taking a snip of a sentence without quoting the whole thing, Genius. I said the banks have effectively zero reserves "If you account for underperforming loans" 
This includes bonds from Greece, Puerto Rico, junk bonds, mortgages on homes with negative equity, etc.

What an asshole.

[xyzzy099]

The banks have effectively zero reserves

Uhm, the last time I looked, they had about $2.5 trillion in excess reserves (that is, above and beyond what they are legally required to hold).

Congratulations on taking a snip of a sentence without quoting the whole thing, Genius. I said the banks have effectively zero reserves "If you account for underperforming loans" 
This includes bonds from Greece, Puerto Rico, junk bonds, mortgages on homes with negative equity, etc.

What an asshole.

Dude, for someone I once mistook as intelligent, you sure post a lot of crap nowadays.  Are you just staying drunk 24/7 nowadays?

You really believe the banks have $2.5T plus required reserves in 'underperforming loans'?  That number is at least as big as the total current M1.

That graph is actually a lot more interesting than you seem to realize, in multiple ways.

[Cconvert2G36]

So uh...

Bitfinex having to unwind everything would be kinda ugly right?

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7231-15

[LMGTFY]

So uh...

Bitfinex having to unwind everything would be kinda ugly right?

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7231-15

Coinflip is incorporated in the US; Bitfinex in Hong Kong.  I'm not sure we need to worry too much just yet, unless the HK government (or Beijing, applying pressure on HK SAR) adopt the same line as the CFTC.

[Cconvert2G36]

So uh...

Bitfinex having to unwind everything would be kinda ugly right?

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7231-15

Coinflip is incorporated in the US; Bitfinex in Hong Kong.  I'm not sure we need to worry too much just yet, unless the HK government (or Beijing, applying pressure on HK SAR) adopt the same line as the CFTC.

I guess it comes down to what % of the swaps market is made up of customers in the US.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

The banks have effectively zero reserves

Uhm, the last time I looked, they had about $2.5 trillion in excess reserves (that is, above and beyond what they are legally required to hold).

Congratulations on taking a snip of a sentence without quoting the whole thing, Genius. I said the banks have effectively zero reserves "If you account for underperforming loans" 
This includes bonds from Greece, Puerto Rico, junk bonds, mortgages on homes with negative equity, etc.

What an asshole.

Dude, for someone I once mistook as intelligent, you sure post a lot of crap nowadays.  Are you just staying drunk 24/7 nowadays?

You really believe the banks have $2.5T plus required reserves in 'underperforming loans'?  That number is at least as big as the total current M1.

That graph is actually a lot more interesting than you seem to realize, in multiple ways.

Banks have more liabilities than just M1 (checking deposits etc). What about M2? CDs? 

DEFINITION of 'M2'
A measure of money supply that includes cash and checking deposits (M1) as well as near money. “Near money" in M2 includes savings deposits, money market mutual funds and other time deposits, which are less liquid and not as suitable as exchange mediums but can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.

Yes, money market funds. Ask the people with money market funds at Lehman Bros what happens when they break the buck. 

Also, why do you think they suspended mark-to-market accounting?  I think you know damn well almost every investment bank has a prop trading desk where they gamble in the markets.  And it's the bonds that may prove most problematic. Puerto Rico may end up being worse that Greece.