Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[greenlion]

Usage only matters if people are holding. Take this, for example:

We have 100 BTC. There are 100 people interested. All 100 are buying and instantly selling their BTC.
1000 more people get interested. The market is constantly buying and selling, so they jump in as well.

This has no effect. If people HODL, this will change things. But that's just as easy to do with 1k people as it is with 1m.

The intermediary doing the conversions is a HODL'er.

They have to hold reserves in the asset pair in order to operate.

[billyjoeallen]

price goes up when demand exceeds supply, so in order for price to go up, demand for NEW coins must exceed 3600 coins per day.  Just holding won't cut it.  Ultimately speculation of a future increase will not do it either. Their needs to be an increase in UTILITY of bitcoins. 

We think that could best be achieved by raising the transaction limit. By raising the block size.First mover advantage isn't a lock. Look at MySpace. Network effect doesn't mean much when the network isn't scalable. 

[criptix]

Ok guyz!

What should be my target for the oct-jan bull run?

$1800 or $2500?

Just remove a zero from each number and you won't be disappointed.

I think everyone needs to think very carefully before making assumptions about continued lacklustre price movement. When bitcoin went from ~$25 to more than ~250 within a couple of months leading up to April 2013 many would have thought they would never see anything like that again. Those who sold out and didn't buy back in again when it went back below $100 would have been kicking themselves when the big boom happened that following November. Well we're in the same situation right now. If things start seriously unravelling with fiat (and indications are that this is going to happen; it's only a matter of when) there will be a race into PMs and crypto. It's entirely likely we could see another run up that will make the ~$1200 from Nov 2013 look like the $250 from April 2013 (i.e if it follows a typical logarithmic trajectory, a $10,000 ATH is not out of the question).

Bottom line: I would be very careful jumping in and out of BTC at the moment as it could suddenly take off and will catch many out.

I have very close to my ATH of holdings of crypto currencies and trying to buy back what I was recently forced to sell. 

I believe at some point the usage and price will go up.

I just have no expectation when that will happen.  I don't even listen to the weather forecast.

The issue here is that usage doesn't relate to price at all. Most services that come out are all about going from cash -> BTC -> cash quickly, which negates the usage factor altogether. We need more to adopt BTC as a method of transacting, without continuing the dilution via liquidation.

this is wrong.

if usage goes up demand for btc will go up.
supply will not inrease therefore price has to inrease.

if price is stable it just means demand and supply are in a equilibrium.

Usage only matters if people are holding. Take this, for example:

We have 100 BTC. There are 100 people interested. All 100 are buying and instantly selling their BTC.
1000 more people get interested. The market is constantly buying and selling, so they jump in as well.

This has no effect. If people HODL, this will change things. But that's just as easy to do with 1k people as it is with 1m.

in your example the price will increase because the 900 other people demand bitcoin that they dont get at price x.

although the 100 are buying and selling instantly the system can only serve 100 out of 1000 ppl.
demand is not a single event.

[greenlion]

does this look like a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern to anyone here?

it looks like a self-similar fractal repetition of the Spring 2013 through past-summer of 2014, compressed over shorter timescale and over shorter amplitude. Exception being at the end it dropped relatively lower, but all the major features are there.

[criptix]

does this look like a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern to anyone here?

it looks like a self-similar fractal repetition of the Spring 2013 through past-summer of 2014, compressed over shorter timescale and over shorter amplitude. Exception being at the end it dropped relatively lower, but all the major features are there.

why are you guys talking about dark here?

[Cconvert2G36]

Still 200+ dollar (actual money) magic beans.

Glad to see you've recovered from the loss of image privileges.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Fatman3001]

Still 200+ dollar (actual money) magic beans.

Glad to see you've recovered from the loss of image privileges.

"Where are we going? Why is everyone screaming? What's happening here?"

[noobtrader]

does this look like a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern to anyone here?

it looks like a self-similar fractal repetition of the Spring 2013 through past-summer of 2014, compressed over shorter timescale and over shorter amplitude. Exception being at the end it dropped relatively lower, but all the major features are there.

looks like cup and handle to me...  


i wonder if btc price can imitate this next year  

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[mavericklm]

at east the motherfucker is stable!
generalizing, we can say it's the same price from january till now

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[xxxxxzzzzz]

mmmmmm yummy $5 dip ... feed the sarlac ...

[Fiat_Hodler]

Bitfinex swap prices are at an all time low. It costs roughly the same amount to borrow dollars as it does bitcoins.

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/totals

[coinpr0n]

mmmmmm yummy $5 dip ... feed the sarlac ...

"Satoshi" dumped some 2009 coins? (What A Time To Be Alive!)

[xxxxxzzzzz]

like shaking hands with madoff or getting a hot tip on enron stock ... but i kid of course ... if satoshi were actually whomping the exchanges we'd see a helluva lot more than $5 drop for a few minutes ... neat that it's someone who *apparently* was a lucky first-adopter or whatever instead of a commie airplane hanger operation ...

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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[illodin]

What's goin on

[TReano]

What's goin on

the usual Bitcoin dumping..