Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitUsher]

So now there's Gavin and Jeff behind it, plus the current #1 and #5 of the mining pools. Will be interesting to see how F2Pool, Bitfury and BTCC Pool react in the coming days.

Certainly interesting ... whatever "it" is ... who knows?...Somewhat irresponsible for them to back something that isn't even formulated yet.

How does that differ from the SegWit-based 'roadmap'?

Segwitt details are well understood, well documented , and with corresponding code and now is in the main testnet instead of just sidechain. Bitcoin Classic has none of that and has contradictory proposals right now as they attempt to formulate what it is.

I.E... https://bitcoinclassic.com/ it is represented as a BIP 102
within this merged pull request -it is a 2MB 4 MB proposal - https://bitcoinclassic.consider.it/merge-3-v0112-2mb-4mb?results=true
They are still voting and deciding upon whether to include Segwit or not and a whole other set of features like reversing RBF or not here -
https://bitcoinclassic.consider.it/

Basically, one is clear and the other is still being formulated so we should with-hold judgment.

  

[oda.krell]

Segwitt details are well understood, well documented , and with corresponding code and now is in the main testnet instead of just sidechain. Bitcoin Classic has none of that and has contradictory proposals right now as they attempt to formulate what it is.

[...]

Basically, one is clear and the other is still being formulated so we should with-hold judgment.

Sure. It seems to be more of a colour the mid-Blockians are supposed to rally behind for now, rather than a fleshed out proposal.

That said, there's quite some difference in complexity between Segwit and "change the maxblocksize int", right?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JITENDERPAR2]

The current rise in bitcoin’s price is more stable than
its previous price changes, according to Martin Tillier,
a financial advisor writing in Nasdaq , a provider of
exchange technology, trading, information and public
company services across six continents. Tillier says
bitcoin’s previous price hikes were mysterious, but the
current one is due to the devaluation of China’s
currency.
Because this is a logical reason for the price surge, the
market is acting with a forward discounting mechanism
and some degree of appreciation is now built into the
price. In addition, the interest from traders combined
with the ability to short the currency allows the market
to check upward spikes naturally, simply by attracting
sellers.

[BitUsher]

That said, there's quite some difference in complexity between Segwit and "change the maxblocksize int", right?

Many people seem to allude that 2MB capacity increase would require simply changing maxBlockSize variable when this simply isn't true as other lines of code would need to be changed to prevent new attack vectors(I.E.. CVE-2013-2292. ). Some proposed code to mitigate these new attacks- https://github.com/bitcoinxt/bitcoinxt/commit/cc1a7b53629b265e1be6e212d64524f709d27022

This being said... yes, segwit is more complicated ... but it is all worth it as the capacity increases within it are the least intresting aspects of what it provides us. Right now we don't know if Bitcoin Classic will implement Segwit or not, but if they do not and you truley understand the benefits of segwit than this should be an immediate dis qualifier.

[jbreher]

Segwitt details are well understood, well documented , and with corresponding code and now is in the main testnet instead of just sidechain. 

I guess I misunderstood. I recently read that Core devs will still hashing out some aspects of how the code will be implemented. No?

[BitUsher]

Segwitt details are well understood, well documented , and with corresponding code and now is in the main testnet instead of just sidechain.  

I guess I misunderstood. I recently read that Core devs will still hashing out some aspects of how the code will be implemented. No?

The code is done and is in the main bitcoin testnet being tested. Might it be modified if a bug is found?... sure... but it has already been completed and tested for many months last year in sidechains and now it is being tested in the main testnet.

http://www.bitcoin.kn/2016/01/ciphrex-ceo-eric-lombrozo-discusses-the-live-segregated-witness-test-net/?utm_campaign=ciphrex-ceo-eric-lombrozo-discusses-the-live-segregated-witness-test-net&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/lets-talk-bitcoin-277-separating-signatures-with-segregated-witness

[jbreher]

Segwitt details are well understood, well documented , and with corresponding code and now is in the main testnet instead of just sidechain. 

I guess I misunderstood. I recently read that Core devs will still hashing out some aspects of how the code will be implemented. No?

The code is in the testnet being tested. Might it be modified if a bug is found... sure... but it has already been completed and tested for many months last year in sidechains and now it is being tested in the main testnet.

Hmm. Really? As in release candidate? I guess I need to source the impression I was given. I do recall that it was a convo on the dev reflector, though I cannot remember details other than that.

[BitUsher]

Hmm. Really? As in release candidate? I guess I need to source the impression I was given. I do recall that it was a convo on the dev reflector, though I cannot remember details other than that.

There is no way to know if changes will be made after testing and when RC is ready... that is somewhat of the point of the testnet. Bitcoin classic on the other hand doesn't even have a clear understanding of what the overall framework is , let alone the code, let alone testing.

[Fatman3001]

That said, there's quite some difference in complexity between Segwit and "change the maxblocksize int", right?

Many people seem to allude that 2MB capacity increase would require simply changing maxBlockSize variable when this simply isn't true as other lines of code would need to be changed to prevent new attack vectors(I.E.. CVE-2013-2292. ). Some proposed code to mitigate these new attacks- https://github.com/bitcoinxt/bitcoinxt/commit/cc1a7b53629b265e1be6e212d64524f709d27022

This being said... yes, segwit is more complicated ... but it is all worth it as the capacity increases within it are the least intresting aspects of what it provides us. Right now we don't know if Bitcoin Classic will implement Segwit or not, but if they do not and you truley understand the benefits of segwit than this should be an immediate dis qualifier.

Whatever implementation increases the block size will not suddenly become the undisputed King of Bitcoin. I wouldn't be surprised if people go back to a future 2MB+ Core client when the block size cafuffle is over.

[BitUsher]

Call me old school, but I prefer this order of development
1) Proposals
2) BIP or Whitepaper created
3) Initial draft coding and preliminary testing
4) Peer review , more testing , more debugging
5) Testnet , with more changes if needed and coordination with other wallet developers
6) RC release  


Bitcoin Classic is at step 1, Segwit is at step 5.

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2016-January/012195.html

For source code, please look at sipa's github repo:
https://github.com/sipa/bitcoin/tree/segwit

And some example signing code at my repo:
https://github.com/CodeShark/BitcoinScriptExperiments/blob/master/src/signwitnesstx.cpp


This doesn't make Bitcoin Classic bad or one we should criticize... it merely is one that is immature and needs to go through those steps.
This being said, it can go through some of these steps fairly quickly as some of these concepts aren't new and have been tested on other BIPs.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

The only trendline investors look at (as opposed to traders) is the five year exponential trendline, which has leveled off. 

1.There is no possibility of a new ATH without an increase in max block size.

2. There is no possibility of an increase in max blocksize with bigblockers split between Classic (BIP102), XT (BIP101), and Bitcoin Unlimited.

3. There is enough Fear Uncertainty and Doubt to prevent ANY scaling solution, including SegWit, before the Network hit the Transaction capacity limit.

THEREFOR: We will hit the limit and have a network congestion failure. The price will crash. It is almost inevitable now.  The only question is when. My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked. 

[BitUsher]

Classic (BIP102),

Classic is not BIP102. When they finally figure things out my guess is 2-4 with segwit.

My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked.  

You should be fine, because you will be taking all those shorts. I encourage it.

The rest of us should be comfortable regardless what implementation gets adopted because we understand that bigger blocks don't spell sudden death and a fee market event doesn't either. There are trade offs with each but, at least in the short term, no big differences between the outcome for bitcoin this year.

[ImI]

Classic (BIP102),

Classic is not BIP102. When they finally figure things out my guess is 2-4 with segwit.

My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked.  

You should be fine, because you will be taking all those shorts. I encourage it.

The rest of us should be comfortable regardless what implementation gets adopted because we understand that bigger blocks don't spell sudden death and a fee market event doesn't either. There are trade offs with each but, at least in the short term, no big differences between the outcome for bitcoin this year.

Unless we get two competing forks...

[JayJuanGee]

The only trendline investors look at (as opposed to traders) is the five year exponential trendline, which has leveled off.  

1.There is no possibility of a new ATH without an increase in max block size.

2. There is no possibility of an increase in max blocksize with bigblockers split between Classic (BIP102), XT (BIP101), and Bitcoin Unlimited.

3. There is enough Fear Uncertainty and Doubt to prevent ANY scaling solution, including SegWit, before the Network hit the Transaction capacity limit.

THEREFOR: We will hit the limit and have a network congestion failure. The price will crash. It is almost inevitable now.  The only question is when. My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked.  

(I added the above bold emphasis to BJA's earlier post)



You definitely are an EXAGGERATOR, and therefore you are unlikely to be correct...


Maybe we could estimate less than a 5% chance of your being correct in your various above predictions.


A sign of your exaggerations is that you communicate in absolutes... which are bound to be wrong because you provide NO wiggle room, which results in your own lil fantasy.            

[medialab101]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

[BitUsher]

Unless we get two competing forks...

If one of the other implementations gets 750/1000 blocks than there is still a 4 week grace period. People tend to act more rational when it involves their life savings and business investments. If those numbers grow within those 4 weeks a fork will ensue, otherwise others will run back to core even if they hate it out of fear of becoming a worthless alt.

[JayJuanGee]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

Another exaggerator.


Maybe exaggeration is contagious?  


Out of the top 20 alts, only one is up more than 25%, and out of the top 100 alts, fewer than 15 are up more than 25%.  


Are any of the rest of the alts meaningful, or should we look through the whole list of 681 alt/shit coins on coinmarket cap?    Do you have another source?


Even though there may be something going on regarding the pumping of various alts, what is going on hardly seems to qualify as "most are up... blah, blah, blah"    

[ImI]

Unless we get two competing forks...

If one of the other implementations gets 750/1000 blocks than there is still a 4 week grace period. People tend to act more rational when it involves their life savings and business investments. If those numbers grow within those 4 weeks a fork will ensue, otherwise others will run back to core even if they hate it out of fear of becoming a worthless alt.

Agree. That 75% rule is important. As long as they respect that its OK.