Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The only trendline investors look at (as opposed to traders) is the five year exponential trendline, which has leveled off.  

1.There is no possibility of a new ATH without an increase in max block size.

2. There is no possibility of an increase in max blocksize with bigblockers split between Classic (BIP102), XT (BIP101), and Bitcoin Unlimited.

3. There is enough Fear Uncertainty and Doubt to prevent ANY scaling solution, including SegWit, before the Network hit the Transaction capacity limit.

THEREFOR: We will hit the limit and have a network congestion failure. The price will crash. It is almost inevitable now.  The only question is when. My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked.  

(I added the above bold emphasis to BJA's earlier post)



You definitely are an EXAGGERATOR, and therefore you are unlikely to be correct...


Maybe we could estimate less than a 5% chance of your being correct in your various above predictions.


A sign of your exaggerations is that you communicate in absolutes... which are bound to be wrong because you provide NO wiggle room, which results in your own lil fantasy.            

[medialab101]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

[BitUsher]

Unless we get two competing forks...

If one of the other implementations gets 750/1000 blocks than there is still a 4 week grace period. People tend to act more rational when it involves their life savings and business investments. If those numbers grow within those 4 weeks a fork will ensue, otherwise others will run back to core even if they hate it out of fear of becoming a worthless alt.

[JayJuanGee]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

Another exaggerator.


Maybe exaggeration is contagious?  


Out of the top 20 alts, only one is up more than 25%, and out of the top 100 alts, fewer than 15 are up more than 25%.  


Are any of the rest of the alts meaningful, or should we look through the whole list of 681 alt/shit coins on coinmarket cap?    Do you have another source?


Even though there may be something going on regarding the pumping of various alts, what is going on hardly seems to qualify as "most are up... blah, blah, blah"    

[ImI]

Unless we get two competing forks...

If one of the other implementations gets 750/1000 blocks than there is still a 4 week grace period. People tend to act more rational when it involves their life savings and business investments. If those numbers grow within those 4 weeks a fork will ensue, otherwise others will run back to core even if they hate it out of fear of becoming a worthless alt.

Agree. That 75% rule is important. As long as they respect that its OK.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[medialab101]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

Another exaggerator.


Maybe exaggeration is contagious?  


Out of the top 20 alts, only one is up more than 25%, and out of the top 100 alts, fewer than 15 are up more than 25%.  


Are any of the rest of the alts meaningful, or should we look through the whole list of 681 alt/shit coins on coinmarket cap?    Do you have another source?


Even though there may be something going on regarding the pumping of various alts, what is going on hardly seems to qualify as "most are up... blah, blah, blah"    

Sort results by volume.

Also, you are looking at the gains for only the past 24hrs.

[tabnloz]

The only trendline investors look at (as opposed to traders) is the five year exponential trendline, which has leveled off. 

1.There is no possibility of a new ATH without an increase in max block size.

2. There is no possibility of an increase in max blocksize with bigblockers split between Classic (BIP102), XT (BIP101), and Bitcoin Unlimited.

3. There is enough Fear Uncertainty and Doubt to prevent ANY scaling solution, including SegWit, before the Network hit the Transaction capacity limit.

THEREFOR: We will hit the limit and have a network congestion failure. The price will crash. It is almost inevitable now.  The only question is when. My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked. 

Hopefully not totally f*cked. Maybe it will be the right amount of eustress needed to kick change / compromise into gear (ie when EVERYBODY'S investment is threatened). And if you think bitcoin is still small enough to survive that scenario then it may be an opportunity to pick up a decent amount of coin while there is the blood of the protocol in the streets. Fingers crossed.

[JayJuanGee]

Since the big dump yesterday all the alts have been getting pumped silly. Most are up by +25% or more.

Another exaggerator.


Maybe exaggeration is contagious?  


Out of the top 20 alts, only one is up more than 25%, and out of the top 100 alts, fewer than 15 are up more than 25%.  


Are any of the rest of the alts meaningful, or should we look through the whole list of 681 alt/shit coins on coinmarket cap?    Do you have another source?


Even though there may be something going on regarding the pumping of various alts, what is going on hardly seems to qualify as "most are up... blah, blah, blah"    

Sort results by volume.

Also, you are looking at the gains for only the past 24hrs.

O.k.   Fair enough regarding looking at the 7 day performance by volume of the top players by volume... but still your comment seems a bit of an exaggeration, but at least I am a bit more clear regarding to what you are referring.... and others can give your assertion as much weight as they believe it deserves... so thanks for that clarification.

[Alley]

Money is pouring out of stock markets.  I think it's a bit too early to call bitcoin a safe haven.  Wouldn't be surprised at another dump.  Would only be temporary though.

[Cconvert2G36]

-snip-
THEREFOR: We will hit the limit and have a network congestion failure. The price will crash. It is almost inevitable now.  The only question is when. My best guess is two months.

THEREFOR we are fucked. 

Hitting the cap and negating use cases for the network isn't a fireworks explosion, we've been over this. It's a slow bleed away of utility. Some "store of value because reasons™ people", some illicit commerce, some off chain speculation, will all still be around to a degree...

It may take years to fully squander the first mover advantage to other alternatives. Blockstream may hope that alternative is them, and they need Bitcoin to still function as a settlement layer...

See, it's not as bad as it could be.

If you still have any concerns, please consult the roadmap.

Moderators are standing by to assist you.

   

[BitUsher]

Blockstream may hope that alternative is them, and they need Bitcoin to still function as a settlement layer...    

I keep hearing these insinuations that Blockstream is going to control the payment channel layer (LN) . Do you guys really think that LN isn't going to be open source and available for any node to compete with Blockstream settlement nodes with? Do you really believe that any of us will bother touching any payment channel that isn't open source?

[Richy_T]

Why blocks are full today which is not normal !
Is there some kind of small transaction attack and someone wants to prove that block size is small now !!

#of transactions is increasing and random chance has led to fewer blocks being found recently (even with hashrate increasing) in some hours. The 100% hour only had 4 blocks and some hours have seen only two blocks. This is another reason to raise the block size limit. It's not just headspace, it's space against random bad luck as well.

[ImI]

Blockstream may hope that alternative is them, and they need Bitcoin to still function as a settlement layer...    

I keep hearing these insinuations that Blockstream is going to control the payment channel layer (LN) . Do you guys really think that LN isn't going to be open source and available for any node to to compete with Blockstream settlement nodes with? Do you really believe that any of us will bother touching any payment channel that isn't open source?

good point

[marcus_of_augustus]

Why blocks are full today which is not normal !
Is there some kind of small transaction attack and someone wants to prove that block size is small now !!

#of transactions is increasing and random chance has led to fewer blocks being found recently (even with hashrate increasing) in some hours. The 100% hour only had 4 blocks and some hours have seen only two blocks. This is another reason to raise the block size limit. It's not just headspace, it's space against random bad luck as well.

big blockers seem too well acquainted with random bad luck ... or maybe they are just losers who don't know squat?

[Cconvert2G36]

Blockstream may hope that alternative is them, and they need Bitcoin to still function as a settlement layer...    

I keep hearing these insinuations that Blockstream is going to control the payment channel layer (LN) . Do you guys really think that LN isn't going to be open source and available for any node to to compete with Blockstream settlement nodes with? Do you really believe that any of us will bother touching any payment channel that isn't open source?

Did I say LN? I can think of 21 million reasons that there will be more solutions than just open source pre-paid payment channels.

[Richy_T]

I admire the flexibility of the scripts-in-a-transaction scheme, but my evil little mind immediately starts to think of ways I might abuse it.  I could encode all sorts of interesting information in the TxOut script, and if non-hacked clients validated-and-then-ignored those transactions it would be a useful covert broadcast communication channel.

Sounds like a soft fork to me. Which I am assured by core is 100% safe, no worries.

[BitUsher]

Did I say LN? I can think of 21 million reasons that there will be more solutions than just open source pre-paid payment channels.

Sure, Like their product "Liquid"? Why Shouldn't hard work and innovation be rewarded whether its with Blockstream product liquid, Coinbases products like shift , or any other company. We all benefit from these competing products.

Your fears are completely misguided as you assume some sort of control or lock-in with developers or code when the reality is that we can go completely down the rabbit hole of core with LN framework and easily revert back to an XT model. The greater concern should be on the centralization of ASIC manufacturing, node count and Pool mining.

[aminorex]

If BTC appreciation were actually due to Chinese currency controls, we ought to be taking off right now, as you just can't buy physical USD in China this week.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation