Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TReano]

next leg down possible here. we didn't even attempt to break 2560 CNY yet. which is bad.

[cbeast]

Post Davos learning curve bump in 3...2...1... 

[Cconvert2G36]

don't forget everyone! BITCOIN CANNOT SCALE! until it does then it still doesn't ... its only been EIGHT MONTHS of arguing over it. #GimpedCoin

Technological progress actually ...ensures that bitcoin not only can scale, but will indeed scale. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

1995 = Pentium 75-100MHz / 8-16MB ram / 1-2GB disks / 14.4kbps - 128kbps connections.
2015 = 4-8core CPUs at 4 GHz / 4-16GB ram / 1-4 TB disks / home connections in the mbps to gbps (for fiber).

Everything has gone upwards like 1000x in 20 years. Processing power, memory, storage, network connections etc. And I'm not counting processing breakthroughs in GPU power or storage speedup like SSDs.

If the trend continues, by 2035 the technology will allow >5000tx/sec, without even improving the software. If the software gets improved (and it constantly is getting scaling improvements), we are talking multiple that - so we'll be seeing VISA-like capabilities way before the 2030's.

Bitcoin is ...doomed to scale, except if some catastrophic failure of our civilization destroys the IT industry. And we won't have to wait for 2035 for scaling, that's just a number. There are incremental steps in hardware and network capabilities all the time. We just want too much, too fast. And that's good because scaling solutions will have to be devised faster. Although one thing will never be overcome: The necessity for fees. It is impossible to have near-zero cost txs AND protect the network for abuse at the same time.

Free txs = attack vector possible for free.
Near free txs = attack vector possible for peanuts.

Cool, so it's time to bump the DoS limit from 2010.

I see Blockstream tripling its War Chest has investors all hot and bothered up in here.

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Lutzow]

next leg down possible here. we didn't even attempt to break 2560 CNY yet. which is bad.

Yes, it seems to be a slow free fall at the moment. Not much interest in BTC anymore now that altcoins like ETH are also getting some media attention. But I guess the tide will still be in BTC favor after few more weeks.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not participating in this thread to compete with anyone regarding purported intelligence or any other characteristic or to pump anything. 

And sure, I have no problem that many of the posters may be more intelligent than me in a variety of ways.  In fact, I expect every poster to have some kind of knowledge that is greater than mine concerning that person's own experiences.

It seems like within the past couple of days, I responded to another post of yours that had a similar level of accusations towards me.

I found it...... for ease of reference, here it is:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13758940#msg13758940 

Accordingly, I responded to your post, but you "conveniently" failed to acknowledge or respond to any of my points within that post.

In essence, I don't necessarily want to be repetitive in making points that I have already made in my earlier post, so if there is anything, you can respond to that.   Accordingly, if we are here genuinely attempting to stay on topic and to provide our experiences in respect to bitcoin, then, some of us are going to have different views regarding the future of bitcoin (if any).

yeah i do repeat myself a lot... purposely .. because if i dont people will forget.

You repeat yourself and you fail / refuse to respond to substance because you do not have any real and meaningful substantive analysis to provide beyond your various narrow talking points that are largely detached from facts.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[valta4065]

don't forget everyone! BITCOIN CANNOT SCALE! until it does then it still doesn't ... its only been EIGHT MONTHS of arguing over it. #GimpedCoin

Technological progress actually ...ensures that bitcoin not only can scale, but will indeed scale. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

1995 = Pentium 75-100MHz / 8-16MB ram / 1-2GB disks / 14.4kbps - 128kbps connections.
2015 = 4-8core CPUs at 4 GHz / 4-16GB ram / 1-4 TB disks / home connections in the mbps to gbps (for fiber).

Everything has gone upwards like 1000x in 20 years. Processing power, memory, storage, network connections etc. And I'm not counting processing breakthroughs in GPU power or storage speedup like SSDs.

If the trend continues, by 2035 the technology will allow >5000tx/sec, without even improving the software. If the software gets improved (and it constantly is getting scaling improvements), we are talking multiple that - so we'll be seeing VISA-like capabilities way before the 2030's.

Bitcoin is ...doomed to scale, except if some catastrophic failure of our civilization destroys the IT industry. And we won't have to wait for 2035 for scaling, that's just a number. There are incremental steps in hardware and network capabilities all the time. We just want too much, too fast. And that's good because scaling solutions will have to be devised faster. Although one thing will never be overcome: The necessity for fees. It is impossible to have near-zero cost txs AND protect the network for abuse at the same time.

Free txs = attack vector possible for free.
Near free txs = attack vector possible for peanuts.

Hmm...
You know it's really putting your faith in technology evolution and respect of the Moore law...

But experience is showing that Moore law is reaching a limit. The base of Moore principle is that the more time passes, the smaller electronic elements become. But we're reaching a point where you cant get any smaller! It becomes harder and harder and we'll eventually reach a physical limit: you can't go small enough to reach the nanometer. At this scale physics as we know no longer exists...

[LMGTFY]

don't forget everyone! BITCOIN CANNOT SCALE! until it does then it still doesn't ... its only been EIGHT MONTHS of arguing over it. #GimpedCoin

Technological progress actually ...ensures that bitcoin not only can scale, but will indeed scale. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

1995 = Pentium 75-100MHz / 8-16MB ram / 1-2GB disks / 14.4kbps - 128kbps connections.
2015 = 4-8core CPUs at 4 GHz / 4-16GB ram / 1-4 TB disks / home connections in the mbps to gbps (for fiber).

Everything has gone upwards like 1000x in 20 years. Processing power, memory, storage, network connections etc. And I'm not counting processing breakthroughs in GPU power or storage speedup like SSDs.

If the trend continues, by 2035 the technology will allow >5000tx/sec, without even improving the software. If the software gets improved (and it constantly is getting scaling improvements), we are talking multiple that - so we'll be seeing VISA-like capabilities way before the 2030's.

Bitcoin is ...doomed to scale, except if some catastrophic failure of our civilization destroys the IT industry. And we won't have to wait for 2035 for scaling, that's just a number. There are incremental steps in hardware and network capabilities all the time. We just want too much, too fast. And that's good because scaling solutions will have to be devised faster. Although one thing will never be overcome: The necessity for fees. It is impossible to have near-zero cost txs AND protect the network for abuse at the same time.

Free txs = attack vector possible for free.
Near free txs = attack vector possible for peanuts.

Hmm...
You know it's really putting your faith in technology evolution and respect of the Moore law...

But experience is showing that Moore law is reaching a limit. The base of Moore principle is that the more time passes, the smaller electronic elements become. But we're reaching a point where you cant get any smaller! It becomes harder and harder and we'll eventually reach a physical limit: you can't go small enough to reach the nanometer. At this scale physics as we know no longer exists...

Moore's Law is a straw man - the previous poster was talking about general technological progress, not the much more narrow Moore's Law. A limit to component density didn't prevent technological development in the centuries before Gordon Moore, and there's no reason to suspect it'll stop simply when integrated circuitry reaches a physical limit.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Bitcoin is ...doomed to scale, except if some catastrophic failure of our civilization destroys the IT industry.

Some day, an engineer is going to wake up and realise. "Oh shit, we forgot to carry the 1.."

[valta4065]

don't forget everyone! BITCOIN CANNOT SCALE! until it does then it still doesn't ... its only been EIGHT MONTHS of arguing over it. #GimpedCoin

Technological progress actually ...ensures that bitcoin not only can scale, but will indeed scale. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

1995 = Pentium 75-100MHz / 8-16MB ram / 1-2GB disks / 14.4kbps - 128kbps connections.
2015 = 4-8core CPUs at 4 GHz / 4-16GB ram / 1-4 TB disks / home connections in the mbps to gbps (for fiber).

Everything has gone upwards like 1000x in 20 years. Processing power, memory, storage, network connections etc. And I'm not counting processing breakthroughs in GPU power or storage speedup like SSDs.

If the trend continues, by 2035 the technology will allow >5000tx/sec, without even improving the software. If the software gets improved (and it constantly is getting scaling improvements), we are talking multiple that - so we'll be seeing VISA-like capabilities way before the 2030's.

Bitcoin is ...doomed to scale, except if some catastrophic failure of our civilization destroys the IT industry. And we won't have to wait for 2035 for scaling, that's just a number. There are incremental steps in hardware and network capabilities all the time. We just want too much, too fast. And that's good because scaling solutions will have to be devised faster. Although one thing will never be overcome: The necessity for fees. It is impossible to have near-zero cost txs AND protect the network for abuse at the same time.

Free txs = attack vector possible for free.
Near free txs = attack vector possible for peanuts.

Hmm...
You know it's really putting your faith in technology evolution and respect of the Moore law...

But experience is showing that Moore law is reaching a limit. The base of Moore principle is that the more time passes, the smaller electronic elements become. But we're reaching a point where you cant get any smaller! It becomes harder and harder and we'll eventually reach a physical limit: you can't go small enough to reach the nanometer. At this scale physics as we know no longer exists...

Moore's Law is a straw man - the previous poster was talking about general technological progress, not the much more narrow Moore's Law. A limit to component density didn't prevent technological development in the centuries before Gordon Moore, and there's no reason to suspect it'll stop simply when integrated circuitry reaches a physical limit.

Well I understand your point but I'd say it's totally flawed.
It's not because it had happened that it will actually happen 

I wouldn't be incredibly shocked if in 10 years scientists would explain that we reached a point in IT where development can't really go any further. You're still limited to physic, and if you can't make smaller elements... What can you do?

Oh maybe in only 3 days someone is going to come with a revolution in science and explain something that will allow us to use a 1000times better internet/PC. But it's not because it has, and it can, that it will 

[coins101]

Price when approaching Bitcoin halving in July:

A. Big drop?

B. Big pump?

[Loimu]

Price when approaching Bitcoin halving in July:

A. Big drop?

B. Big pump?

I personally think we will see raise in the price already before the halving. Maybe somewhere May-June.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Price when approaching Bitcoin halving in July:

A. Big drop?

B. Big pump?

Definitely gonna pump the living daylights out of it. If you time it well, there's money to be made. But I suspect that it will happen about a month before the first 12.5btc block.

[Wekkel]

These long periods of 'stable' prices tend to lead to price explosions in the long run. I'll continue with HODL.

[LMGTFY]

Hmm...
You know it's really putting your faith in technology evolution and respect of the Moore law...

But experience is showing that Moore law is reaching a limit. The base of Moore principle is that the more time passes, the smaller electronic elements become. But we're reaching a point where you cant get any smaller! It becomes harder and harder and we'll eventually reach a physical limit: you can't go small enough to reach the nanometer. At this scale physics as we know no longer exists...

Moore's Law is a straw man - the previous poster was talking about general technological progress, not the much more narrow Moore's Law. A limit to component density didn't prevent technological development in the centuries before Gordon Moore, and there's no reason to suspect it'll stop simply when integrated circuitry reaches a physical limit.

Well I understand your point but I'd say it's totally flawed.
It's not because it had happened that it will actually happen 

I wouldn't be incredibly shocked if in 10 years scientists would explain that we reached a point in IT where development can't really go any further. You're still limited to physic, and if you can't make smaller elements... What can you do?

Oh maybe in only 3 days someone is going to come with a revolution in science and explain something that will allow us to use a 1000times better internet/PC. But it's not because it has, and it can, that it will 

If you can't make smaller elements... What can you do?

Well... you can:

• Connect multiple elements together.
  
• Continue to improve elements in ways that don't rely on component density, or even reduce the number of components.
  
• Develop better ways to connect elements.
  

A revolution in 3 days isn't necessary. Technological developments that speed our processing power and increase our bandwidth happen all the time, and are not tightly coupled to component density. They tend not to yield 1000x improvements, but they compound together over time to achieve something pretty spectacular. The shift from CISC to RISC CPUs, for example, reduced the complexity of CPUs (and hence the number of components they required), allowing more powerful computers - it wasn't necessary for component density to increase, because the number of components was *decreasing*. The shift from HDDs to SSDs has increased bandwidth. Wi-fi gets faster with every generation, and that's (broadly) using tech that's familiar to radio engineers from back in the day.

I'm not saying that Moore's Law didn't happen, that it was a bad thing, or anything like that. What I'm saying is that reaching a limit to the number of components we can put on a piece of silicon is not going to bring an end to technological development in general, or to IT in particular. Bitcoin is safe.