Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

... Hopefully we don't dip below ...

~85% chance within hour.
~90% chance within day.

Want to bet on that?  I ll give you 80 % chance and say within day it doesn't dip below 400 (finex).
If I win I get 200 USD worth of bitcoin, if you win you get 50 USD worth of bitcoin.

No. I don't bet/do business on Bitcointalk. Basically for the same reason I don't bet on street-corner Three Card Monte/shell games: too much scamming
P.S. Nothing against you personally tho, I'm sure you're legit.

You could create a bet that is 10% of the original amount - I mean, why do you need to bet so much?

could be $2 on one side and $.50 on the other or even smaller amounts than that in order to keep people less greedy.

I am not afraid of making bets; however, I actually would not make any large bet in the forum either but instead make my bets through trading, exchanges and decisions regarding how much BTC to HODL.  But if a bet through the forum is for a few dollars or less, then you can still put your money where your mouth is based on lower stakes.

[adamstgBit]

i'll bet 1$ on >410 in <1hour

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

i'll bet 1$ on >410 in <1hour

You're on. No need for escrow. I trust you.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

Hello (Gentlemand), you've reached Blockstream technical support. If this is about the pool, we apologize for any inconvenience or embarrassment the incident may have caused you and your family. If you value your privacy like we do, we encourage you to try a side-chain.

[adamstgBit]

i'll bet 1$ on >410 in <1hour

You're on. No need for escrow. I trust you.

woot!

ok,  if price hits >410 within 50mins you pay me 1$ if not i pay you 1$, bitstamps price.

[aztecminer]

i got some new research fodder related to bitcoin today!

[billyjoeallen]

i'll bet 1$ on >410 in <1hour

You're on. No need for escrow. I trust you.

woot!

ok,  if price hits >410 within 50mins you pay me 1$ if not i pay you 1$, bitstamps price.

I was gonna say BFX, but Stamp works for me. Tic, tic, tic...

[JayJuanGee]

Ultimately I agree with your conclusion that Gavin his not coming off as trustworthy

I think you should quit the ad hominem attack. You are hurting Gavin and Bitcoin in general, this adds absolutely nothing to the debate.

If I said, "you stupid fuck, you probably have no morals... blah, blah, blah" without any further explanation, then that would probably be a personal attack, because the argument is aimed at the person and has no backing.


On the other hand, in my post (that you fail to provide the context), I describe how I came to such a conclusion, and that is based on Gavin's demeanor within a referred to "let's talk bitcoin" episode.  Below, for ease of reference, I provide more of the context in which I made my assertion.

You, bitebits, may want to consider the effect of your own chiming in, in which you fail/refuse to include the relevant context, and accordingly, you are likely way more engaged in an ad hominem attack (towards me) as compared with any semblance of an ad hominem attack that I arguably may have made towards Gavin and the supposed denigration of bitcoin.


Further, whether individuals contribute or take away from the current controversy or the image of bitcoin is quite a mind-fuck of variation and even confusion, and I would argue that even though some of my posts may come off as confrontational, poor logic or even misinformed, they are a hell-of-a lot higher caliber than a number of other posts in this space because a large majority of the time (likely more than 95% of the time), I attempting to make my points from my own genuine perspective and not engaging in trolling or shilling activities, which has become quite wide-spread in bitcoin talk forums in recent times.

I listened to the whole show, including the first couple of minutes as you described.

I also made a posting about Gavin.

Here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg13896428#msg13896428


Ultimately I agree with your conclusion that Gavin his not coming off as trustworthy; however, those first couple minutes are not a true indication of anything except that the question was a kind of attempt at a joke in which the moderators were mocking various claims made within the bitcoin community.  Maybe Gavin did not know that the question was coming, but it was clear that everyone knew it as a softball set of question.. to start out in kind of fun and to show Gavin that largely the moderators did not believe the outrageous claims against Gavin.

Anyone in the public eye in bitcoin realize that many unfair claims are thrown at persons in the public light, and so with those starting off questions they were largely empathizing with him.

I hear you about Gavin's kind of nervous laugh in the beginning and around those two questions, but since Gavin was not really being challenged, without knowing more, it would not be fitting to read too much into the initial nervous laughing in that short context.

[Adrian-x]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."

So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction? 

Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?

... at which point a HF does become necessary and a new POW algorithm will be adopted, something more centralising-resistant.

>"more centralising-resistant."
you know why mining is consolidating? (hint its not centralizing)  It's because efficiencies in algorithm processing are being horded by the ASIC fabricators. As this technology democratizes (natural market competition) mining consolidation will biggin to diversify. It's a lack of understanding that leads to the mental shortcut that mining consolidation can be projected in a linear fashion until there is one cartel.  

Making the treat to choose a new PoW algorithm is an attack on the very incentive needed to motivate investment to grow and secure the network.  

[BitUsher]

Samson Mow offering to pay Armstrong 5k to commit to Classic and switch all coinbase nodes to Classic. 

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/699509360678957056

Lets see if coinbase makes a commitment to circle.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Samson Mow offering to pay Armstrong 5k to commit to Classic and switch all coinbase nodes to Classic. 

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/699509360678957056

Lets see if coinbase makes a commitment to circle.

[adamstgBit]

[billyjoeallen]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."

So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction?  

Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?

... at which point a HF does become necessary and a new POW algorithm will be adopted, something more centralising-resistant.

>"more centralising-resistant."
you know why mining is consolidating? (hint its not centralizing)  It's because efficiencies in algorithm processing are being horded by the ASIC fabricators. As this technology democratizes (natural market competition) mining consolidation will biggin to diversify. It's a lack of understanding that leads to the mental shortcut that mining consolidation can be projected in a linear fashion until there is one cartel.  

Making the treat to choose a new PoW algorithm is an attack on the very incentive needed to motivate investment to grow and secure the network.  

I completely agree with this. What is needed is not less mines in China, But more mines outside of China.  It should worry all of us that this isn't happening to any meaningful degree.  Electrical power is 2 cents/kilowatthour in Eastern Washington, right outside of Microsoft's back door, so why are we letting the Chinese dominate mining?

I'll tell you why: The few American chip makers in the space like 21 are indeed hoarding the chips. This is a huge mistake, because they are onboarding all the risk. Sell miners and make money or keep them and mine. And then double down again by keeping the coins instead of selling them.

You may be good at speculating/trading
You may be good at making ASICS
You may be good at mining

But the chances are infinitesimal that you can be good at all three very difficult, competitive and specialized skills.  

Bitmain is the only company selling retail mining equipment and their miners are shitty, overpriced and inefficient. 21 could compete with them profitably without much effort, but they are too greedy, wanting to keep the miners for their own micropayments channel. Bitfury is doing the same thing overseas. They are not investing in a distributed network. They are investing in making it less distributed. 

[adamstgBit]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."

So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction? 

Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?

... at which point a HF does become necessary and a new POW algorithm will be adopted, something more centralising-resistant.

>"more centralising-resistant."
you know why mining is consolidating? (hint its not centralizing)  It's because efficiencies in algorithm processing are being horded by the ASIC fabricators. As this technology democratizes (natural market competition) mining consolidation will biggin to diversify. It's a lack of understanding that leads to the mental shortcut that mining consolidation can be projected in a linear fashion until there is one cartel.  

Making the treat to choose a new PoW algorithm is an attack on the very incentive needed to motivate investment to grow and secure the network.  

I completely agree with this. What is needed is not less mines in China, But more mines outside of China.  It should worry all of us that this isn't happening to any meaningful degree.  Electrical power is 2 cents/kilowatthour in Eastern Washington, right outside of Microsoft's back door, so why are we letting the Chinese dominate mining?

I'll tell you why: The few American chip makers in the space like 21 are indeed hoarding the chips. This is a huge mistake, because they are onboarding all the risk. Sell miners and make money or keep them and mine. And then double down again by keeping the coins instead of selling them.

You may be good at speculating/trading
You may be good at making ASICS
You may be good at mining

But the chances are infinitesimal that you can be good at all three very difficult, competitive and specialized skills. 

i hate to break it to you, but fear of the chinese government confiscating all the mining farm in order to attempt a 51% attack is an irrational  fear.

short of this highly fantastic sanario, i see no problem having majority of hashing power where the majority of poeple on earth live.

[adamstgBit]

i'll bet 1$ on >410 in <1hour

You're on. No need for escrow. I trust you.

woot!

ok,  if price hits >410 within 50mins you pay me 1$ if not i pay you 1$, bitstamps price.

I was gonna say BFX, but Stamp works for me. Tic, tic, tic...

~20 mins left and i still need to see 1/2 1/4 million dollars get dumped on stamps.

[tex99]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."

So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction? 

Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?

... at which point a HF does become necessary and a new POW algorithm will be adopted, something more centralising-resistant.

>"more centralising-resistant."
you know why mining is consolidating? (hint its not centralizing)  It's because efficiencies in algorithm processing are being horded by the ASIC fabricators. As this technology democratizes (natural market competition) mining consolidation will biggin to diversify. It's a lack of understanding that leads to the mental shortcut that mining consolidation can be projected in a linear fashion until there is one cartel.  

Making the treat to choose a new PoW algorithm is an attack on the very incentive needed to motivate investment to grow and secure the network.  

I completely agree with this. What is needed is not less mines in China, But more mines outside of China.  It should worry all of us that this isn't happening to any meaningful degree.  Electrical power is 2 cents/kilowatthour in Eastern Washington, right outside of Microsoft's back door, so why are we letting the Chinese dominate mining?

I'll tell you why: The few American chip makers in the space like 21 are indeed hoarding the chips. This is a huge mistake, because they are onboarding all the risk. Sell miners and make money or keep them and mine. And then double down again by keeping the coins instead of selling them.

You may be good at speculating/trading
You may be good at making ASICS
You may be good at mining

But the chances are infinitesimal that you can be good at all three very difficult, competitive and specialized skills. 

i hate to break it to you, but fear of the chinese government confiscating all the mining farm in order to attempt a 51% attack is an irrational  fear.

short of this highly fantastic sanario, i see no problem having majority of hashing power where the majority of poeple on earth live.

The Chinese government won't confiscate all the mining farms to do a 51% attack. It would give people a bad impression of them. If they were to take any action against bitcoin or the farms it would be to make mining illegal in China and outlawing the possession of bitcoins. They already banned/unbanned bitcoin multiple times and I don't rule out them banning/unbanning it again, but I don't think it's likely.

[billyjoeallen]

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600781/technical-roadblock-might-shatter-bitcoin-dreams/

OMIGOD. Why wasn't I informed of this? I want Blockstream on the line right now for me refund.

"There is general agreement in the Bitcoin community that the system must remain decentralized to prevent the possibility of any company or government controlling the currency."

So we decentralize by putting three quarters of our mines in one government's jurisdiction? 

Why am I the only one apparently concerned by this? Everybody cool with Chinese government's hand on the kill switch?

... at which point a HF does become necessary and a new POW algorithm will be adopted, something more centralising-resistant.

>"more centralising-resistant."
you know why mining is consolidating? (hint its not centralizing)  It's because efficiencies in algorithm processing are being horded by the ASIC fabricators. As this technology democratizes (natural market competition) mining consolidation will biggin to diversify. It's a lack of understanding that leads to the mental shortcut that mining consolidation can be projected in a linear fashion until there is one cartel.  

Making the treat to choose a new PoW algorithm is an attack on the very incentive needed to motivate investment to grow and secure the network.  

I completely agree with this. What is needed is not less mines in China, But more mines outside of China.  It should worry all of us that this isn't happening to any meaningful degree.  Electrical power is 2 cents/kilowatthour in Eastern Washington, right outside of Microsoft's back door, so why are we letting the Chinese dominate mining?

I'll tell you why: The few American chip makers in the space like 21 are indeed hoarding the chips. This is a huge mistake, because they are onboarding all the risk. Sell miners and make money or keep them and mine. And then double down again by keeping the coins instead of selling them.

You may be good at speculating/trading
You may be good at making ASICS
You may be good at mining

But the chances are infinitesimal that you can be good at all three very difficult, competitive and specialized skills. 

i hate to break it to you, but fear of the chinese government confiscating all the mining farm in order to attempt a 51% attack is an irrational  fear.

short of this highly fantastic sanario, i see no problem having majority of hashing power where the majority of poeple on earth live.

I have no problem with the Chinese. If mining was distributed between Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Mainland China, this wouldn't be an issue at all, but the mines are all within a single political jurisdiction.  That's a major problem.  Censorship resistance isn't the ability to say whatever you want because the guy in charge lets you. It's saying whatever the hell you want because nobody can stop you. 

Worse case scenario is not that China cracks down, but that Bitcoin is such an ineffective tool to achieve freedom that they never need to crack down. That should worry us a lot more.

If Bitcoin ever becomes what you and I hope it becomes, then it will be a real threat to TPTB in China and they will have the means, motive and opportunity to stop it if more than half of all the mines are within their borders. There is absolutely no fucking way that Bitcoin can achieve major currency status without either being fought or co-opted by the State.  That is inevitable and right now we have no plans to deal with it.

[arklan]

just to poke my head in real quick:

i've been absent from here for months. bitcoin xt? classic? gavin jumped ship? wtf is going on?!

and yet the price hasn't gone tits up... confused.

[Dotto]