Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitUsher]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

Theymos did suggest this...

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4isxjr/petition_to_protect_satoshis_coins/d30we6f

"Edit: To be absolutely clear: I am not proposing (and would never propose) a policy that would have the goal of depriving anyone of his bitcoins. Satoshi's bitcoins (which number far below 1M, I think) rightfully belong to him, and he can do whatever he wants with them. Even if I wanted to destroy Satoshi's bitcoins in particular, it's not possible to identify which bitcoins are Satoshi's. I am talking about destroying presumably-lost coins that are going to be stolen, ideally just moments before the theft would occur. "

This being said , I don't think what he is actually suggesting is a good idea either.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

[whored]

Amir Taco belongs in a high school garage band somewhere instead of Bitcoin:

https://forum.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-discussion/amir-taaki-and-the-segway-in-austria-t7749.html

Now if it was on a Segway *and* firing a couple of AR-15s with 3D-printed lowers *at the same time,* in *Australia*...

http://s32.postimg.org/fgh3o75np/Capture.png

[JayJuanGee]

You know what my dear friend, sorry for getting off-topic a bit, but when I read your replies, you remind me of one of my best friends ever IRL, I miss him so much, may Allah (God) bless both of you

Back to topic, there is a guy named something Vinny I guess, wrote a blog post named, Bitcoin 2016 The Awekaning, and it was featured on Zero Hedge.

The guy who copied it to ZH stated that he is type of a guy who knows his shit so well, where if he talks, we shall listen as he predicited a lot of price scanerios in the past and he was correct.

He stated that we MAY visit $1K this year and $3K in the coming year.

I somehow gave him some credibality for what he said, so I asked you to re-adjust your predications depending on this new specualtion.

Did I convince you ?

On May 7, I posted about that article in another location, and my post was like this:


>>>>>>>>>I don't know what to make of the below linked article, exactly, but the author is fairly bullish about bitcoin, and claims that he had predicted Bitcoin's 2013 rise to above $1,000 and it's subsequent fall in price. 

I do take any self-proclaimed soothsayers with a grain of salt; however, currently, the author is predicting $1,000+ in 2016 and $3,000+ in 2017.

I will proclaim that the author's predicted numbers are somewhat similar to mine; however, mine differ a bit in that I'm thinking that once BTC prices go passed $800-ish, then they will likely shoot well passed $1,000 into the $3k to $5k territory and then settle back into the $1,000s..  and then possibly have another run at a later date to go passed $5k into the $10k-ish territory.

I'm quite a bit less certain in my head regarding my own predictions, especially regarding when my prediction  will happen because Possibly I have become jaded by ideas of conspiracy and I do believe that status quo financial and government forces do have some abilities to bring forces to bear to continue to engage in downward manipulation attempts

But, yeah, when my actual prediction occurs (if it does) is difficult to predict with any precision or to know because first of all we gotta get out of the $400s first, if we can?.. which getting out of the $400s will likely take us into the $600s.. and then maybe a correction back to the $500s or even $400s, and thereafter, it could take a while to get out of the $500 to $800 price range.

Anyhow, the below linked article is a decent read:


http://www.coindesk.com/2016%E2%80%8A-brought-bitcoin-awakening/   <<<<<<<

In the past 12 hours, I've been rethinking my own consideration of this topic, and I am kind of thinking that among the better case scenarios for bitcoin would be:

Stage 1:  2016 could bring us highs between $600 and $800 (maybe up to a 50% chance)

and

Stage 2 2017 could bring us between $3000 and $5000 (so long as stage 1 occurs, maybe up to a 25% chance)

I am a bit too afraid to be more optimistic than that, even though I understand very decent forces that could propel bitcoin prices into the stratosphere... nonetheless, if upward BTC price explosions occur any more rapidly than what I am suggesting above and with any more intensity than that, then I have no problem being wrong.   

[UngratefulTony]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

Theymos did suggest this...

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4isxjr/petition_to_protect_satoshis_coins/d30we6f

"Edit: To be absolutely clear: I am not proposing (and would never propose) a policy that would have the goal of depriving anyone of his bitcoins. Satoshi's bitcoins (which number far below 1M, I think) rightfully belong to him, and he can do whatever he wants with them. Even if I wanted to destroy Satoshi's bitcoins in particular, it's not possible to identify which bitcoins are Satoshi's. I am talking about destroying presumably-lost coins that are going to be stolen, ideally just moments before the theft would occur. "

This being said , I don't think what he is actually suggesting is a good idea either.

* Only as a soft fork tho, so... uncontentious!

[JayJuanGee]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

At this time, we have no fucking idea whether anyone has access to those coins, yet the longer that time passes, possibly the more confidence people have that the keys may no longer be available.  But, as you suggest lot's of uncertainty.

Nonetheless, we cannot assume, as you indicate that he wants the dough, but we can assume it is one possible scenario.

Anyhow, ultimately, it is a so fucking what.  The coins exist, and if someone has the keys, then that is great.  It seems a very bad precedent to override ownership (whether they were stolen or misappropriated or whatever) to destroy them. 

I think bitcoin's fungibility is ensured by causing NO EXCEPTIONS, and bitcoins should NEVER be labeled as good, bad or destroyed, unless the person with the private keys actually takes that action himself (or herself).

[AlexGR]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

I don't think that's what the discussion is about.

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable. At that point, millions of BTC can be looted for the lolz by those having the tech to do it. The question is what can you do about it so that they can be moved to safety, locked, etc. Otherwise you'll have millions of BTC looted AND a PR fiasco like "ohhh Bitcoin got HACKED AND PEOPLE LOST THEIR MONEY!!! ITS UNSAFE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES". So you have hackers dumping, people panicking, etc etc. It's a complex issue.

[whored]

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable.

Whelp, that certainly puts my mind at rest Seriously tho, isn't our money protected by maths and stuff? Wasn't that factually and scientifically proven and rhythmically guaranteed?

But if you say bitscoin doesn't scale and is easily h4xx0rable, I guess I'm all in (but u gotta promise not to hax9r me, K?)

[AlexGR]

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable.

Whelp, that certainly puts my mind at rest Seriously tho, isn't our money protected by maths and stuff? Wasn't that factually and scientifically proven and rhythmically guaranteed?

It is a safe assumption that cryptography can be broken (at some future X point) so you just have an arms race where you upgrade your cryptography and move your coins to better cryptographic schemes when vulnerabilities appear - or ever earlier. In any case, preferably, before you get cracked

It's no different for governments or banks really. You just have to be ahead of the game.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

I don't think that's what the discussion is about.

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable. At that point, millions of BTC can be looted for the lolz by those having the tech to do it. The question is what can you do about it so that they can be moved to safety, locked, etc. Otherwise you'll have millions of BTC looted AND a PR fiasco like "ohhh Bitcoin got HACKED AND PEOPLE LOST THEIR MONEY!!! ITS UNSAFE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES". So you have hackers dumping, people panicking, etc etc. It's a complex issue.

I know there's a difference between hackers dumping stolen coins and Satoshi legitimately cashing out. But the difference will be cold comfort if you happen to be hodling at the time.

[JayJuanGee]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

I don't think that's what the discussion is about.

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable. At that point, millions of BTC can be looted for the lolz by those having the tech to do it. The question is what can you do about it so that they can be moved to safety, locked, etc. Otherwise you'll have millions of BTC looted AND a PR fiasco like "ohhh Bitcoin got HACKED AND PEOPLE LOST THEIR MONEY!!! ITS UNSAFE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES". So you have hackers dumping, people panicking, etc etc. It's a complex issue.

I know there's a difference between hackers dumping stolen coins and Satoshi legitimately cashing out. But the difference will be cold comfort if you happen to be hodling at the time.

There seems to be something wrong with the distinction you are attempting to make here, as if the impact is the same.

If we only consider the matter regarding the impact of dumping coins, then there is little to no difference; however, if we are talking about coin security that is a bit of a different scenario.. with potentially more justification.

Personally, it seems like a bad precedent to attempt to back protect security, and possibly, the only exception could be Satoshi's coins, since there is such a large quantity of coins that were mined in a relatively short (early) period of time... however, in the end, it seems to me to be the better practice to not attempt to acquire or freeze those coins, even if there is some kind of future security risk that may come to fruition. 

I will concede that when we discuss in terms of hackability, rather than dump effect, this is a much better and important discussion point in which reasonable people will likely differ.... and consensus based decisions here would be important, rather than any small group deciding how to proceed. 


TLDR:  In my opinion, mere dump effect of Satoshi's coins is not a sufficient reason to take action in freezing or protecting those coins; however, future hackability is potentially a sufficient reason - though I am still personally inclined to error on the side of leaving the coins as potentially fungible.... bitcoin is consensus based, so ultimately, changes to the status (or fungibility of those coins would be based on achieving consensus).

[DaRude]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

I don't think that's what the discussion is about.

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable. At that point, millions of BTC can be looted for the lolz by those having the tech to do it. The question is what can you do about it so that they can be moved to safety, locked, etc. Otherwise you'll have millions of BTC looted AND a PR fiasco like "ohhh Bitcoin got HACKED AND PEOPLE LOST THEIR MONEY!!! ITS UNSAFE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES". So you have hackers dumping, people panicking, etc etc. It's a complex issue.

That call should be in the hands of the individual priv key owner and not some entity deciding that your coins are not safe enough so we'll just destroy them for you.

[UngratefulTony]

Have we destroyed the Satoshi coins yet? Just checking...

I've seen some recent discussion of such.. ..

Whoever came up with that....

   Dumb idea...

If he really wanted there to have been confidence in the economics of a deflationary currency he ought to have done it himself. The fact he didn’t leads one to believe he wants the dough. And I suppose he’s entitled to it. Either way it’s an ungodly hoard of coins that’s impossible to ignore.

I don't think that's what the discussion is about.

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable. At that point, millions of BTC can be looted for the lolz by those having the tech to do it. The question is what can you do about it so that they can be moved to safety, locked, etc. Otherwise you'll have millions of BTC looted AND a PR fiasco like "ohhh Bitcoin got HACKED AND PEOPLE LOST THEIR MONEY!!! ITS UNSAFE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES". So you have hackers dumping, people panicking, etc etc. It's a complex issue.

That call should be in the hands of the individual priv key owner and not some entity deciding that your coins are not safe enough so we'll just destroy them for you.

Bbbbbut, it would only be trading one person's liberty for the security of a great many people... seems worth it.

Besides, it could be done with a soft fork.

[Gyrsur]

the world of Amir Taaki --> https://youtu.be/B9j9AXSwfjg

better times --> https://youtu.be/I-DVOYyx_6U

[Blacula X]

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable.

Whelp, that certainly puts my mind at rest Seriously tho, isn't our money protected by maths and stuff? Wasn't that factually and scientifically proven and rhythmically guaranteed?

It is a safe assumption that cryptography can be broken (at some future X point) so you just have an arms race where you upgrade your cryptography and move your coins to better cryptographic schemes when vulnerabilities appear - or ever earlier. In any case, preferably, before you get cracked

It's no different for governments or banks really. You just have to be ahead of the game.

Oy! For this I left legacy finance?

[bitebits]

If you truly believe that, and I believe you do + I am not saying you are wrong, why are you then still publicly trading for a few bucks profit per bitcoin? Is it the rush you are getting when the price runs away from you in either direction? Are you hedging against your own bullish judgement? This seems like a dangerous strategy believing what you are saying is sincere.

Yes, I attempted to make my above highlighted statement to be within what I really believe, and I framed my statement general enough that it is reflective of what I believe at the moment to be within reasonable possibilities.  

Contrary to what you seem to be asserting (or implying) bitebits, I don't see my BTC trading strategy to be contrary to my view that BTC prices have decent probabilities of reaching $25k to $250k within 5-10 years.  Decent probabilities can mean a lot of things including beliefs of anything between a 10% chance and a 90% chance [...]

Somehow to me, bitebits, I get the impression from your above comment that you believe that in order for me to be consistent with my views, I should be buying more and more BTC and even leveraging more in order to buy BTC because the present value of such a view (if I really believe it) would seem to dictate that I invest more financial resources into BTC.  

Really, I don't think so.

[...]  

I hope that makes sense to clear up what seems to be a kind of inconsistency in my position from your point of view.

By the way, in a nut shell, what are you doing in terms of attempting to prepare your BTC holdings in a way that you believe is consistent with your view of BTC's future and in light of your own financial circumstances?

Thanks for trying to explain JJG, appreciated. Not sure if I fully understand or agree though.

According to you own logic, even with your lowest estimate of a 10% chance on your lowest estimate of $25k per bitcoin, you should not be selling any bitcoin under 2500$. But I am not judging or telling you what to do, just noticed the inconstancy. Psychological it might be hard to not trade when you watch the price closely and have bitcoins / fiat on an exchange. Like Warren Buffett recently said during the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting: "A full wallet is like a full bladder — you may have the urge to pee it away very quickly".

My 'strategy' is simple since I have a certain percentage of my wealth invested in Bitcoin where I feel comfortable with. Don't care whether it's short term manipulated dollar value abruptly decreases or increases. Do care when I would lose bits in the trading process. When/if the dollar value of a single bitcoin gets >$2k I am probably forced to rebalance my portfolio, even though I share your believe that the future dollar value of a bitcoin is likely way higher.

[var53]

At some point old pubkey coins might be easily hackable.

Whelp, that certainly puts my mind at rest Seriously tho, isn't our money protected by maths and stuff? Wasn't that factually and scientifically proven and rhythmically guaranteed?

It is a safe assumption that cryptography can be broken (at some future X point) so you just have an arms race where you upgrade your cryptography and move your coins to better cryptographic schemes when vulnerabilities appear - or ever earlier. In any case, preferably, before you get cracked

It's no different for governments or banks really. You just have to be ahead of the game.

The speed of quantum computer development took the NSA and everyone else by surprise. Nobody thought Bitcoin's cryptography could be broken when Bitcoin was invented. The whole internet depends on that same type of cryptography, and quantum computers could break it.

There's a scramble to develop new quantum computer resistant cryptography now. Bitcoin will have to swap to it sooner or later, at which point a decision will need making about Satoshi's coins if he doesn't claim them by then.

[Syke]

Where does this 1 million coin figure come from? I've no doubt he has a ton but there are probably a few other people who aren't too far behind.

Sergio's analysis. There're several posts on his blog to read through.

[whored]

There's a scramble to develop new quantum computer resistant cryptography now. Bitcoin will have to swap to it sooner or later, at which point a decision will need making about Satoshi's coins if he doesn't claim them by then.

>develop new quantum computer resistant cryptography
Huh, think we'll come to an agreement re. blocksize by then? Will the new algo work with Blockstream Lightning Network?

>a decision will need making about Satoshi's coins if he doesn't claim them by then.
I bet a decision is being made right now about your coins. Hurry up and find a new store of value before Thermos pockets protects it for you

[Ted E. Bare]

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