Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

sitting and thinking what is the point in the huobi buy and sell those 423 btc...in 1 minute there was 2 time sell that amount of btc and couple seconds later the same amount was buy(maybe for himself )....is the chinese just in my opinion- stupid simple make up the volume? or is there some other reason? Because if there we excludes those 400+ btc trades then chinese exchange is like bitfinex in volume...lol

Huobi volume is fake, it has been for years.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Wonder if the price has dropped/stalled because of bitcoin Black Friday? I suppose a lot of people will be selling to pay for the festive period too.

Maybe we won't move up significantly until the New Year when all the bull celebrations & spending is over.

[hv_]

Have a look on this log log plot and channel.

The price is log as you normally compare gains in percentage.

The time, from about Aug 2010 to now, is in log scale as well i.o. to account for the exponential growth.

Data are from blockchain.info




In the lower right corner you see same log log for gold. from 1969 to about 1990 you might just compare the price incease, which was mostly same shape as for bitcoin but way lower exponent.

I believe in that chart, and here comes some questions and a small favor

1. The favor : Could you please edit the chart with time scale to see when we can hit $10K and $1MM ?

2. I believe in "History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes", what makes you sure that we will hit $10K and $1MM ?

I tried to add the time scale but im not in front of a PC. My tablet is not runing proper Excel to do that.

But you can use the artificial points to orient:

80k at end 2018 ( Top green marker)

10k support lower channel end of 2022 ( Bottom red square)

1Mio at end 2024 (Top green marker)

Depending on when the next hyperbolic run will start the 10k might be seen first by end 2017 ?

[julian071]

I set a buy order @ €602. Now we wait....

[harrymmmm]

[[...]]

I might agree with you that the answer is not exactly clear; however, you seem to be framing the issue as if the onblock and offblock solutions are equal and competing proposals, which is truly not the case.

The case with seg wit is that it has gone through the early stages of consensus, development and testing, and therefore it is a yes or no vote about whether you agree to going forward with this version.  There is no other version that is competing for attention or approval.. so if you go for the other version, then that version needs to be vetted and to go through testing.. and any code that is currently out there as a supposed competing version is either sloppy, non supported or both.

or Or OR
get this,

it has been tested on a test net, its being used on the main net, and its now being used to mine with >6% of total hash rate.
and you never bothered to look?
granted these are relatively new developments...

Agreed....

But you did forget to mention that the code that's working on main net is only the 0.12 code copied from the core client. None of the new code is being exercised there.
I suspect the testing of that stuff was minimal since they knew they didn't actually need to make it work for a long time.

just because YOU think BU is a hack job of 0.12.0 core code, doesn't make it true.
BU isn't some fly by night let's try to incress the block size group of lazy hackers...
Core isn't the only show in town, get use to it.

I'll ignore the adrenalin and strawmen...

I believe this is the currently active BU branch on github: https://github.com/BitcoinUnlimited/BitcoinUnlimited/tree/0.12.1bu

You can see the new commits (mostly BU-only block size and relay stuff) and the commits behind bitcoin master (mostly segwit commits not added, but also many others related to 0.13.0 and 0.13.1).
You can see it's forked from bitcoin (if you were in doubt!) and labelled as branch 0.12.1bu.

[Karartma1]

sitting and thinking what is the point in the huobi buy and sell those 423 btc...in 1 minute there was 2 time sell that amount of btc and couple seconds later the same amount was buy(maybe for himself )....is the chinese just in my opinion- stupid simple make up the volume? or is there some other reason? Because if there we excludes those 400+ btc trades then chinese exchange is like bitfinex in volume...lol

Huobi volume is fake, it has been for years.

Fractional reseve at its glorious high! According to bitcoinwisdom.com all the three major Chinese Bitcoin exchanges (Huobi, OKcoin and BTCChina) saw a volume of crazy magnitude in the last 30 days:
185 Million BTC 
One can't really believe those numbers are real

[Chef Ramsay]

Look at the market maker BTC-e, you go girl!

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

It will go 10$ per week on average from now on... If it goes 5x / 10x more than that in a short period of time... make sure to gamble! ... Correction in 1-2 week from 765$ to 745$ ...

Seriously?  You sound very certain, please do tell on what basis you are so sure?

You cannot be serious to considering that Savetherainforest could actually have any meaningful clue regarding his prediction for supposedly moderate and consistent rise in BTC, incrementalism or whatever you want to call it.  For about 6 months, he has been saying that we are going to the moon, all the way through the May/June correction, and  then continuing to say that he is all in while the lows got lower and even during the August Bitfinex correction.  I think that he moderated his prediction comments a little bit after the Bitfinex correction, so in the end,  Savetherainforest is largely in a fantasy world but sure he could be correct, even from his fantasy perspective.   

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

I set a buy order @ €602. Now we wait....

From what I can tell, that is a bit more than a 10% correction - could happen, but you may be a bit safer with some kind of incrementalism rather than expecting more than a 10% correction from our current price point.

Consider spreading the quantity of your total bet into 25%-ish increments (in 4 parts) moderately at around 3%, 6%, 9% and 12%

[julian071]

I set a buy order @ €602. Now we wait....

From what I can tell, that is a bit more than a 10% correction - could happen, but you may be a bit safer with some kind of incrementalism rather than expecting more than a 10% correction from our current price point.

Consider spreading the quantity of your total bet into 25%-ish increments (in 4 parts) moderately at around 3%, 6%, 9% and 12%

Will do, thx.

[uki]

Do you think we will break 750 in the next week?

Last chance to sell about 730$...its going down...

I pretty much think the same. Double top on the charts. That is pretty bearish. Correction would something to expect. Now the question is where it stops. Halving pump corrected all the way to $5xx handle, which would mean about 20-25% if we go down to the same levels. Why not?

[starmman]

I set a buy order @ €602. Now we wait....

From what I can tell, that is a bit more than a 10% correction - could happen, but you may be a bit safer with some kind of incrementalism rather than expecting more than a 10% correction from our current price point.

Consider spreading the quantity of your total bet into 25%-ish increments (in 4 parts) moderately at around 3%, 6%, 9% and 12%

Will do, thx.

I'm hoping that there is a bit of a price correction - the Donald Trump thing caught me off guard and I had my bets hedged the other way so would be good to get a good position on some markets again whilst making some alt sales.

[julian071]

I set a buy order @ €602. Now we wait....

From what I can tell, that is a bit more than a 10% correction - could happen, but you may be a bit safer with some kind of incrementalism rather than expecting more than a 10% correction from our current price point.

Consider spreading the quantity of your total bet into 25%-ish increments (in 4 parts) moderately at around 3%, 6%, 9% and 12%

Will do, thx.

I'm hoping that there is a bit of a price correction - the Donald Trump thing caught me off guard and I had my bets hedged the other way so would be good to get a good position on some markets again whilst making some alt sales.

I'm in the very same situation....

[marcus_of_augustus]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?

None. There is no way we don't come out the other side of this without segwit and a stronger network ... maybe even we get less 'centralised' chinese domination of mining (up to now they have never exercised or exhibited any coordinated 'centralised' behaviour)

However, it will likely be a good opportunity to add in any downdrafts created by the FUD brigade.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?

None. There is no way we don't come out the other side of this without segwit and a stronger network ... maybe even we get less 'centralised' chinese domination of mining (up to now they have never exercised or exhibited any coordinated 'centralised' behaviour)

However, it will likely be a good opportunity to add in any downdrafts created by the FUD brigade.

O.k.  Fair enough, but it seems like it could take a few months to sort this kind of thing out.. especially if there are seeming to be some attempts at coordinating and even some confusion from miners about whether or not to support seg wit.

I am with you concerning your conclusion that ultimately seg wit is going to be implemented... but yeah, it could take a bit of time to get there.

[bitebits]

^ Is that guy still using CD's for his music instead of more efficient and compact mp3's?

[Fatman3001]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?

None. There is no way we don't come out the other side of this without segwit and a stronger network ... maybe even we get less 'centralised' chinese domination of mining (up to now they have never exercised or exhibited any coordinated 'centralised' behaviour)

However, it will likely be a good opportunity to add in any downdrafts created by the FUD brigade.

Don't be so negative, Marky Mark. It might still work out.

[uki]

Watch out for some serious turbulence and cross-currents with the segwit mining signaling phase if the chinese miners are going to try and over-play their hand, as it appears to be shaping up at this stage.

It could be a prime opportunity for a re-decentralisation of mining away from the big 2-3 chinese mining 'pools'. Since the big chinese pools are centralised and their blocks are easily identified they are vulnerable to an orphaning attack as soon as segwit gets over 51% https://blockchain.info/pools ... and which smaller miner wouldn't want to grab some market share of the juicy rewards from these behemoths and take them down a peg or two? If the big 2 or 3 miners (who now have less than 51%) get orphaned off the network the new mining reward split will be much, much more decentralised (and secure) and shift away from its current a chinese-centric vulnerablity. Getting from here to there could be quite turbulent price-wise but ultimately leave behind a much safer, secure (valuable) network.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?

None. There is no way we don't come out the other side of this without segwit and a stronger network ... maybe even we get less 'centralised' chinese domination of mining (up to now they have never exercised or exhibited any coordinated 'centralised' behaviour)

However, it will likely be a good opportunity to add in any downdrafts created by the FUD brigade.

I doubt the Chinese whales will give up their market share without a proper fight.
That is too lucrative for them to give it up easily. Therefore, I expect the story to play a bit longer than initially planned.