Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[osmotic]

id like to add that i have witnessed dozens of dormant wallet since 2011 and 2010 just suddently decides to empty their balance.

Where did you witness that?

Blockchain.info used to have a bitcoin days destroyed chart, but it's disappeared.

Is there any reputable site still providing a bitcoin days destroyed chart?

[kurious]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

This is as good any any TA I have seen here of late, and reassuringly sensible.

None of the risible 'ATH in 30 days shit' just a reasonable term (with backup TA) to suppose the bull run continues over the medium term.

Respect.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?

[600watt]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior top. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME


edit: meant to write "top"
this is not trying to spread fud. keep calm....  oh.wait...   

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

Our only workable use-case has shown itself to be sort of unworkable. China can clamp down on capital outflow through bitcoin at the drop of a chopstick. 

[eddie13]

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

THIS!!

And it has something to do with china..

[toknormal]

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster....someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

I previously thought that too but I've slightly changed my mind about this.

The 2013 bubble was a single huge run-up where the bubble burst and turned immediately into a long term bear market.

That's not happening this time.

For a start, the current "run-up" has lasted 18 months so far and has been much more sedate. It started mid-2015 off $200. There have been periodic bubbles which burst (see chart above) but unlike the 2013 spike, none of them have reversed the trend so far and having made that observation above I now have no reason to believe that this one will either. It seems to have bottom-spiked just at the right place to be consistent with previous "overheat conditions".

If it really starts to dig in past the previous spike (i.e., say in the 4000 CNY range) then I'll have to change my view obviously.

So I think the reason that it's only taken 1 week to fall below the previous spike is simply because it has far less distance to go since the growth is more natural and sustainable this time.

P.S. You can see the Huobi traders - they've taken it very quickly and confidently down to 5200 CNY but they appear scared to short it beyond that point because that would be defying the underlying trend and expose themselves to serious risk of having their shorts fried for breakfast. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days if it springs back up to the propeller "nose" or not with covering.

[becoin]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

We all know from the very beginning this will happen on regular basis. After China many other countries will follow. But that won't stop bitcoin. It didn't stop it in the past. It will not stop it in the future. Just another buying opportunity!

[JayJuanGee]

If the price keeps going down, I'll keep reallocating funds to buy more.

For how long? To what end?

If those are not trolling questions, then what is?    Should be pretty clear what Jimbo is attempting to accomplish, even though it may be fair to ask whether some one would buy all the way down to zero, if there was such a move towards zero..

[JayJuanGee]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

You are just making up shit.. for what purpose?  

We had a 3 month price run up from lower $600s to mid $1,100s, which is about a 90% price appreciation.

So far this has been about a 34% correction from the top.. and has not crossed below previous ATH of $266 nor has it even crossed it's starting point from only three months ago...

It's gotta get a lot worse than this before it rises to the level of some kind of disaster, as you seem to be implying..


Edit:  maybe you are referring to the price falling below $780?  still, that is a kind of artificial creation that you seem to be making in order to spread a kind of FUD... ... 

[toknormal]

Here's a close-up of that "propellor" correction pattern I was referring to earlier.

2 of them compared. Now go back and see them in context of that other big chart and a somewhat informative picture starts to emerge.

[MinermanNC]

Now that's pretty cool lol interesting too 

[Killerpotleaf]

breaking 780 would be terrible

if we ALL buy now we might delay the inevitable  

and there is gose    

[sugarbaby]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

Dis look gud... Better wait to choina and see how they will react in the 2nd day

[MinermanNC]

Watching this for almost 4 years now, I think its coming back soon... fan correction in play   probably a good time to pick up a coin or 2.

[Killerpotleaf]

Boeing 777
Wide-body jet airliner
The Boeing 777 is a family of long-range wide-body twin-engine jet airliners developed and manufactured by Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Wikipedia
Top speed: 950 km/h
Wingspan: 61 m
Cruise speed: 905 km/h
Introduced: June 7, 1995
Unit cost: 258,800,000–315,000,000 USD
Engine type: Turbofan

ALL ABOARD

[600watt]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior ath. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME

You are just making up shit.. for what purpose?  

We had a 3 month price run up from lower $600s to mid $1,100s, which is about a 90% price appreciation.

So far this has been about a 34% correction from the top.. and has not crossed below previous ATH of $266 nor has it even crossed it's starting point from only three months ago...

It's gotta get a lot worse than this before it rises to the level of some kind of disaster, as you seem to be implying..


Edit:  maybe you are referring to the price falling below $780?  still, that is a kind of artificial creation that you seem to be making in order to spread a kind of FUD... ...  

yes, referring to that.
disappointment maybe. what i wrote is not made up but fact. i added fun fact to not make it sound to serious. because on the other hand we are still 2%1% up from last 30 days. oh, and i meant previous top not previous ath. thanks for pointing that out, with "previous ath" it really sounds like fud. sry.
i did not imply to spread fud.

[BayAreaCoins]

fun fact:

after the last big run-up&crash in nov. 2013 it took 14 months to fall even below prior top. and that was including the mtgox desaster.

this time around it took not 620 weeks but only 1 week. (without any goxlike desater)

someone is trying to ruin trust in bitcoin BIGTIME


edit: meant to write "top"
this is not trying to spread fud. keep calm....  oh.wait...  

Tis interesting and I kind of agree.

Hopefully it has the reverse reflect, but time will tell. 

This market move moment shook a LOT of folks playing either way with leverage trading.

[uhoh]

Here comes the new daily low

[DaRude]

Is BTC dead? again