Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

you gotta sell and find a new floor after a reasonable time.

Suit yourself. In a chaotic inscrutable market, the only consistent indicator being an 8-year bull run amounting to something like a 100,000-bagger, the only rational trade is to buy and hodl.

Did you hold through all the bubbles you have witnessed?

No. In the period before the late 2013 skyrocket, I engaged in some laddered day trading. It taught me a hard lesson. I made a moderate gain in both BTC and fiat while volatility was moderate. However, when the skyrocket came, I was left holding a bag of stinky fiat, with no hope of buying back in at anywhere near the price at which I sold.

How do you cope with that?

I don't understand the question.

Is the fear of it going to Neptune without you higher than it going back to earth?

'zackly.

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[jbreher]

You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes).

There's also money to be lost when the market moves faster than that for which you have prepared.

But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.

In BTC, I found it pretty easy. Until the moves got unpredictably violent. This is not the sedate stock market. This is Bitcoin. It do dat.

[JayJuanGee]

y'all niggas don't even trade?

Mostly not.

what do y'all do when it drops?

I have generally found that selling at the bottom to be a poor trading strategy. But what the hell do I know? I mostly don't trade.

you gotta sell and find a new floor after a reasonable time.

Suit yourself. In a chaotic inscrutable market, the only consistent indicator being an 8-year bull run amounting to something like a 100,000-bagger, the only rational trade is to buy and hodl.

You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes). But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.

I agree with you about attempting to protect yourself from some of the price volatility, but I don't agree with the strategy that you seem to be suggesting, which is to sell when you see (or believe) that the price is going to go down - you are going to get screwed too many times if you attempt to time that and to figure that out.

The safer strategy is to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and part of the trick is figuring out increments and amounts in order that you neither run out of BTC to sell or money to buy with if the price tanks.

I have been employing such a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and it seems to work pretty well.

A couple more things:  1) I don't think that it is a good idea to employ the selling part of the formula until you have figured out your accumulation targets and attempt to sufficiently accumulate before selling any BTC and 2) it is also a good idea to attempt to figure out various BTC/fiat ratios that you want to attempt to maintain and follow at certain price points.  Of course, you can have some flexibility, but you should also try to have a plan or an outline, too so that you can attempt to stay within certain predetermined parameters - which is especially important during very high volatility periods, when you don't wanna get nervous and deviate too much from your predetermined plan.

You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes).

There's also money to be lost when the market moves faster than that for which you have prepared.

But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.

In BTC, I found it pretty easy. Until the moves got unpredictably violent. This is not the sedate stock market. This is Bitcoin. It do dat.

These are all important points also, and I agree completely with these points, and I have been tweaking my system more and more in order to hope to account for the potential of this outrageous growth situations - including selling only about 1% of my BTC holdings for any 10% rise in prices (something like that), and even though I do seem to be stacking a lot of fiat upon the rises, I have found that i am able to put that fiat to decent use, as well, and I think that such will also work even if the price goes up 5x within a month or so (even though there might be a bit of regret that I could have made more, but I still think that is a trade off that I am willing to accept based on my total investment). 

[molecular]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

[JayJuanGee]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

NO!!!

People like to make those kinds of organic growth assertions, and that makes little logical sense.

You don't get those kinds of spikes from mere transactions (and organic growth).  There is some kind of attack on the network - that is the most plausible explanation for such sudden and dramatic spikes (like 100x and sometimes more).

[600watt]

support is strong as fuck.

i agree. if you connect the local lows, there you have a nice ascending line. looking good. 

[DaRude]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

[yrtrnc]

Up or down

[600watt]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

molecular is no troll, that is for sure.

[PoolMinor]

Up or down

Maybe

[600watt]

Up or down

Maybe

confirmed!

[gembitz]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

^na it's real i have one i've been waiting on over 6hours ...zzz 

[molecular]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

[PoolMinor]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

[Ted E. Bare]

$900 = buy with all your fiat?

[Tzupy]

$900 = buy with all your fiat?

940$ would be cheap, 900$ might turn out quite expensive.

[GBattaglia]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

[simmo77]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

[GBattaglia]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

What I'm saying is it could be more than a little dip if something spooks people enough for it to go down to $880. Making profit off of
$10 dips with fees is hardly worthwhile unless you have at least 10BTC or so laying around

[AlexGR]

I feel $890 will be the resistance point for this drop, but I question whether we will be able to hit it.
I think if we drop to $880 then a large sell off will occur. Funny thing is the drop isn't coming from china, but they are following.

I'm not ballsy (read: stupid) enough to have fiat sitting around on exchanges to take advantage of little dips like this.

I know there are ways of insta-buying BTC, but none of them are available to me, so I'll be watching from the sidelines again...

And that's precisely the reason for higher volatility. As people become wiser and not letting their funds on exchanges, the order books become thinner.

Fat order books = High risk for exchange "hacking" / lower volatility due to inertia (=fat order book)
Thin order books = Better prepared for exchange "hacking" / bigger volatility