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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 30 (19.1%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.8%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.6%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.7%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.5%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 157

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21293651 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
the artful bodger
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January 15, 2017, 08:40:34 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?
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K~Ehleyr
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January 15, 2017, 08:48:37 PM

I figured May too, but then I'm very much a newbie to looking at these charts.  I'd say this May earliest, but it could be as late as then end of 2018.  I'll be disappointed if the handle has to extend into 2019 before we get our almighty surge to the cosmos...
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January 15, 2017, 09:03:09 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017
the artful bodger
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January 15, 2017, 09:13:43 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.
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January 15, 2017, 09:23:50 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

Recent price action was perfectly aligned with the Fibo Time Zone. From my point of view November 2017 is the next possible climax http://zentrade.online/bitcoin-price-action-update-20170113/
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January 15, 2017, 09:29:08 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

i always thought it could be until may. now i think august or september.

Do you mean august/september 2018, or august/september 2019?

2017

I studied the times between the previous two highs, and speculate we get another spectacular in about 5.5 to 7.5 months.

Recent price action was perfectly aligned with the Fibo Time Zone. From my point of view November 2017 is the next possible climax http://zentrade.online/bitcoin-price-action-update-20170113/

Nice!  I wonder to what extent analysis like that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as traders work towards the expectation of that climax at that time....
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January 15, 2017, 09:30:02 PM

you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...
savetherainforest
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January 15, 2017, 09:39:21 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?




So... from my calculations... its supposed to go somewhere at a bottom of 666. But...







I don't think that will happen.


if it is another handle... lower than 750$ would be a ridiculous low number. And a better, more realistic expectation would be a bull trend for now with +10-15$ per week from now on.  Grin
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January 15, 2017, 09:42:44 PM

break above $850 we could see something ...  Cool
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January 15, 2017, 11:37:15 PM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800


I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.




QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==
Killerpotleaf
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January 16, 2017, 12:23:24 AM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.

QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==

is it too much to ask for one last sub 800 buy opportunity before the bear trap closes?
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January 16, 2017, 12:34:30 AM

you guys are so bearish.

In the situation I describe below where there's a continuously decreasing amount of goods and services (perma-deleveraging), I think metals are the biggest winner since they have the least amount of counterparty risk.  But, bitcorn would probably see some benefit too even though Bitcoin has FAR HIGHER counterparty risk than people claim:


When complex systems collapse, they devolve into simpler ones.  They never jump into a higher tier of complexity.  Complex systems also tend to require exponential resource (energy) curves.  Peak conventional crude oil already happened in 2004.  Peak working age demographic already occurred in every nation that matters.

Wealth comes from people doing work in the real world, not shuffling around papers.  That work is either done from things like burning fuel to do the work for you, or humans physically doing it themselves.  With both working age demographic and energy output declining, people will be spending more time and effort doing work for the basic necessities and nobody is going to be overpaying people for shuffling numbers on a computer unless it involves something to do with solving the energy problem.

"Excess" energy is why a day's wage in Rome was a small amount of silver and why it's a larger amount of silver now.  Instead of humans having to dig it up, the work was being done for free by machines, thus devaluing it's worth.  But, the time of arbitraging "free" energy into depleting all resources like metals as fast as possible is over now (that and the fact peak metals is occurring regardless the state of energy).  Unless fusion power solves all these problems (not likely because fusion is actually low EROI), then we already hit peak energy, peak cheap metals, peak cheap food, and this energy arbitrage scheme is ending, possibly in a Seneca cliff.



Here's one example of such a chart.  Remember that all wealth is based on energy output since abundance is really just machines burning fossil fuels to do work for you instead of you doing it.  In the gas sector, the high energy yielding conventional stuff is all cratering, so all they did was grab more of the lower return on investment stuff to try and compensate (same thing in the oil market).  So, as this cycle continues, your civilization's wealth continues to decrease until you get to the point of borderline thermodynamic collapse if it uses as much energy to drive the shale oil to market as it does to extract it (and shale is low return on investment).

So, I hate to rain on your parade, but there is no so called knowledge age unless there's some type of enormous energy breakthrough.  Russian govt energy analysts see things getting really bad by around 2020 and say there is no technological solution in sight.  There is no coming out on the other side of the monetary reset with some type of "utopia".  In fact, one of the reasons it's currently crashing is because it relies on infinite growth and the energy situation prevents that.
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January 16, 2017, 12:35:10 AM
Last edit: January 16, 2017, 12:56:37 AM by PoolMinor

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.

QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==

is it too much to ask for one last sub 800 buy opportunity before the bear trap closes?

Yes, look back to the last 18 months as plenty of time to buy sub $800.

Edit:
Since the price is going 10X higher a few bucks should not be a worry to such a Hodler as yourself.
Killerpotleaf
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January 16, 2017, 12:55:53 AM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.

QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==

is it too much to ask for one last sub 800 buy opportunity before the bear trap closes?

Yes, look back to the last 18 months as plenty of time to buy sub $800

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January 16, 2017, 01:43:39 AM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.

QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==

is it too much to ask for one last sub 800 buy opportunity before the bear trap closes?

Yes, look back to the last 18 months as plenty of time to buy sub $800



Just dont buy now...wait! Be patient
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January 16, 2017, 04:00:11 AM



tabnloz
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January 16, 2017, 06:18:26 AM

Or else this enormous cup requires a proportionally large handle, in which case this clambering up and dripping down could continue for months?

Bingo!


you guys are so bearish.

this is a bear trap and it will close...eventually but not 6 months from now...

I look forward to showing my support again sub 800

I am still amazed that you seem to flip flop more than a game of pong.

QnVsbCB0cmFwIGNvbWluZywgbmV4dCBydW4gdG8gfiQ5OTAuIElLUg==

is it too much to ask for one last sub 800 buy opportunity before the bear trap closes?

Yes, look back to the last 18 months as plenty of time to buy sub $800.

Edit:
Since the price is going 10X higher a few bucks should not be a worry to such a Hodler as yourself.

Man, if we go 10x from here..... there are going to be some happy & retired relaxed people
r0ach
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January 16, 2017, 07:32:11 AM

Man, if we go 10x from here..... there are going to be some happy & retired relaxed people

How is it gonna go up 10x while we're all sitting here with our dicks in our hands waiting for daily China bans?  I don't really expect any big moves in a climate like this.  I'm not "bearish", I'm just not expecting some renegade Chinaman to go pump up a $200 spread right now.
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January 16, 2017, 09:35:46 AM

Let's see where the support is now. Wink

the next 24 dumps are critical.

The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.

The small pump happened, so far seems to favor the bullish scenario. But remember, the PBoC can trash the bullish TA anytime. Grin
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January 16, 2017, 09:57:37 AM
Last edit: January 16, 2017, 03:26:22 PM by 600watt

Let's see where the support is now. Wink

the next 24 dumps are critical.

The next several hours (from now) are critical. If we'll have more dumps and test (might even break) support at 5200 CNY, even if it will bounce, a very bearish scenario would become possible.
If however there will be a small pump (that would hold for a while), then further support testing is unlikely to break and should result in a large triangle that should break upwards, with target around 8000 CNY.

The small pump happened, so far seems to favor the bullish scenario. But remember, the PBoC can trash the bullish TA anytime. Grin


my speculation about the what happened:

1)when chinese exchanges hit new ath a cascade of naked shorts and fucked up max leverage setup caused the first dive. okcoin and others couldn´t handle the traffic anymore, traders couldn´t log in, fortunes lost.

2)some of those traders are high ranking members of the communist party (or their kids). they called papa or mama and cried because the got goxed by okcoin.

3)high ranking party leaders grabbed the phone and called PBOC to do something.

4)PBOC stepped in not to ban bitcoin, but to safe bitcoin (well, safe the crypto kids from getting goxed again - no more naked shorts, no more 100x leverage)

5)media learns about PBOC visiting all chines exchanges; bitcoin community gets the buzz words PBOC, chinese exchanges panicking nightmare of 2013 OMG SELL ALL THE COINS causing the:

6)second dive.

7)everyone freaks out because of 2nd dive. fears of 14month uptrend reversed in a few days. btc FUD spin doctors step in OMG sell all teh coins:

8)third dive

9)slowly the community begins to realize that china did not ban bitcoin.


edit:  Wink
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