Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kehtolo]

here we go 100 more
https://blockchain.info/address/3BApYqAagJyDkusVNh4g37yQJrjimK6A5g

O.k. I will bite.   


What is that supposed to mean?

2nd bite,., Do you know why there are two 100BTC transactions going to this wallet? Why is it significant? Old coins moving?
A campaign of some sort? A dev fund?

What is it, man? Tell us!!!!

[JayJuanGee]

People must stay calm and monitor events.

+1000

It seems to be so difficult to stay calm in times like these because there is obviously a bit of a price battle going on at the moment and such battle seems to be eating away at the price, at least for the moment.

In that regard, it still seems quite difficult to have any confidence regarding what is going to happen in the short term, and it still seems to be quite too early to know.

Accordingly, there seem to be a lot of resources put into this particular price battle, and it seems to have just begun. Recall pretty much that BTC prices rose from $600 to mid $1100s in three months without a lot of trade volume.

Trade volume only began to kind of pick up in the final two weeks of that particular rise, and then went a bit astronomical on the dump in the past week.

To me it seems that our last high trade volume price battle took place in late 2015 for about 20 weeks between mid $200s to $500 and then to settle in the $350 to $450 price territory at the end of that particular battle... The price performance of BTC after late 2015 had not been including any kind of prolonged and intensive increase in trade volume that lasted more than a week or two, at most - even the rise from mid $400s to upper $700s in May/June did not include any kind of significant or prolonged price battle for more than a few weeks.

This time seems to have come from a relatively slow upwards price slope over three months that increased in the slope in last three weeks of the rise and then intensified into this particular price battle with very decent volume that so far has only been building up to intensify in these past two weeks (maybe arguably 4 weeks total, if you include the price increase slope), and it could take up to 20 weeks to resolve the price, possibly...

Currently, the bears do seem to be throwing quite a bit of ammunition and resources at keeping the price down, and I am not sure if it is possible for the bears to run out of coins or if they are willing to conduct this battle at a loss or they have some other techniques up their sleeves to be able to continue to push downwards on the price and maybe also to get others to decide to sell their coins (in order to help them out).

So, yeah, it is possible that prices, during this period could go lower and even below $600, but I don't see any kind of certainty in making those kinds of predictions, because it is also possible that we could reverse at any time too, or just settle down in some range (is it somewhere between $600 and $1,100 that is being contested at the moment?...   

My ongoing uncertainty is why I continue to buy coins on the way down, because I cannot be sure at what point we are at the bottom of this particular price correction.. .and if there is more dump, then try to pick up a few more coins with whatever fiat I am holding in reserves.

[Tzupy]

It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.

It looks like there is a sea behind that mountain or there isn't. Great prediction, tzupy. As always.

The correction started earlier than I expected, because of bad news from China, but so far was only 21% to 24%, instead of my expected 30%.
However this looks bottomish, so this may have been all. BTW, you posted that you went leveraged long a lot higher than the current bottom, how did that go?

[jbreher]

It seems to be so difficult to stay calm in times like these ...

Nonsense. In the big picture, the people of the world need a form of money untainted by grubby partial reserve central banking whimsy. Right now, there is nothing known that can take that mantle from Bitcoin. This is a minor temporary setback.

No sense panicking - that is what loses fortunes. In this moment, I am serene. I shall hodl.

[Ted E. Bare]

Tzupy was right. I couldn't imagine this low. So bottom reached or more down?

[DieJohnny]

This pump and dump is an exact pattern from the last two years, every six months like clockwork bitcoin spikes and then tanks. Forget the Gox-inflated, fake bubble. Bitcoin is probably the most remarkably consistent and predictable investment you can make.

Price will find a floor, price will be volatile, then go sideways, then spike. You have a window of opportunity now to prepare for the next run. If you got burned this time, take a deep breath and realize that your mistake was that you forgot you were going to just buy and HODL

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

[Tzupy]

Tzupy was right. I couldn't imagine this low. So bottom reached or more down?

Can't be sure. But even if this was the bottom, for about a week we could go sideways, building a triangle that would break, probably up, so no need to rush buying.

[Tzupy]

This pump and dump is an exact pattern from the last two years, every six months like clockwork bitcoin spikes and then tanks. Forget the Gox-inflated, fake bubble. Bitcoin is probably the most remarkably consistent and predictable investment you can make.

Price will find a floor, price will be volatile, then go sideways, then spike. You have a window of opportunity now to prepare for the next run. If you got burned this time, take a deep breath and realize that your mistake was that you forgot you were going to just buy and HODL to take your profits

FTFY.

[slap]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/11/panic-sellers-are-wrong-about-bitcoin-commentary.html

Capital flight is overestimated. Once PoCB will say this out loud, rockets may fuel again imho.
Till then meh.

[offliberty]

Lost about 2 BTC in the battle because of a stoploss that failed to execute. Not sure if buying or buying more.

[JayJuanGee]

It seems to be so difficult to stay calm in times like these ...

Nonsense. In the big picture, the people of the world need a form of money untainted by grubby partial reserve central banking whimsy. Right now, there is nothing known that can take that mantle from Bitcoin. This is a minor temporary setback.

No sense panicking - that is what loses fortunes. In this moment, I am serene. I shall hodl.

O.k. Maybe I deserved that.

In the whole scheme of things you are right about the current value of BTC being in a good place for a multitude of reasons that are beyond price.

I was not personally referring to selling any BTC (because my practice is to sell relatively small portions of my BTC holdings as the price is going up - currently like 1% to 2% or so for every $100 price rise), I am merely referring to knowing when to buy and how much to buy in order to not run out of fiat if the price keeps going lower.  I have quite a few staggered orders already set, but I also hold some fiat on the side to attempt to strategically buy at certain price points, and I suppose I am just wanting to attempt to maximize those buying points, if possible, too. 

[becoin]

It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.

It looks like there is a sea behind that mountain or there isn't. Great prediction, tzupy. As always.

The correction started earlier than I expected, because of bad news from China, but so far was only 21% to 24%, instead of my expected 30%.
However this looks bottomish, so this may have been all. BTW, you posted that you went leveraged long a lot higher than the current bottom, how did that go?

Average price now is 768 euro. I have no problem with it. Planning to increase exposure even more today.

[molecular]

Hey, I've just noticed a pattern that this crash fits into, but it's only visible at very long range. (You need a big screen preferably to see this - pull the browser page out wide if you can to grow the image to full size. Sorry I couldn't get the pattern very visible at small scale).

This correction may not be as bearish as we think and seems to fall into a "family" of profit taking moves associated with the rise that started back around July 2015.

It appears that every 7-8 months (every 4-5 months earlier in the rise) there's a big profit take like this which always happens at the top of a spike when the market gets ahead of itself. (I call them "propellor corrections" because they look like an aircraft propellor from side on since the price corrects to about the same distance below the trend line as the 'overheat' got above it). All the same there's a longer, underlying trend where the upwards revaluation grows steadily steeper, even despite these crashes along the way.

When the pressure-relief gasket blows on these bubbles it always corrects to just below the top of the previous propellor pattern. Same every time but increasing in size. Then there's a period of consolidation, followed by a slow rise, then steep rise and another gasket-blow.

Each time the correction gets bigger, but it still seems to stick to the rule of dropping to just below the last spike so that the growth trend isn't broken. I now think I'm not the only one to have noticed this and that big players are actively trading this pattern, watching for the overheat-spike and knowing exactly when to profit take, driving that bubble into full temporary reverse with shorts for maximum profit. But they also must know how far to take it because the last spike gives the reference level.

This one was perfectly timed - 7 months exactly.

Judging by its size and perfectly placed timing, we could be in for a very big rise over the next 8 months if the long term trend continues because the vertical distance between each "overheat" phase increases each time by about 60% to 70%.

Just sayin. Context is everything

over 9000 ?!?

[Pruden]

The first time we broke 1000$, in 2013, we were under 600 a few days later, yet you couldn't imagine us going down to 750 now?

This thread is very instructional, on how NOT to trade. You are all emotionally invested in Bitcoins, like I was then.

It's only a trade, folks. If your happiness depends on the next leveraged long being profitable, you will not reach old age.

[Searing]

The first time we broke 1000$, in 2013, we were under 600 a few days later, yet you couldn't imagine us going down to 750 now?

This thread is very instructional, on how NOT to trade. You are all emotionally invested in Bitcoins, like I was then.

It's only a trade, folks. If your happiness depends on the next leveraged long being profitable, you will not reach old age.

yep still too fragile ..too many things to bring up in FUD to drop price in such a btc universe....

seems Bitcoin has only 2 states (binary)

1) To the Moon!

2) Cheap Coins!

Luckily, I've marked both 'Tin Foil Hats' appropriately..... (frack....where is my cheap coins hat.... its been awhile)


Satoshi on Bitcoin:

"in twenty years, it will either be worth quite a lot or nothing' Satoshi Nakamoto

[Tzupy]

OKCoin is the most bullish on this pump, so I'll watch them.

[toknormal]

Chutes deployed ?

[savetherainforest]

Tzupy was right. I couldn't imagine this low. So bottom reached or more down?

Can't be sure. But even if this was the bottom, for about a week we could go sideways, building a triangle that would break, probably up, so no need to rush buying.

It was a good run! Wasn't it??


Those suck whale traders that kept buying...      ... Increased my BTCiTcoins by 30% Trololol.. ... "hai multzani!"




But I'm just gonna hold from now on... no matter what happens. Draw u'r stuff from exchanges and we will see each other again in June - July on the next rally!

[Ibian]

Know what's better than making money trading? Making money trading with no risk. Just got a call from a guy who's offering to pay my rent this month