Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Meuh6879]

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[JayJuanGee]

You're mostly right. Except there's money to be made during mad dips with the obligatory bounce back (or at the least increasing BTC count even if dollar value diminishes). But yes, day trading (without borrowing aka margin) and with .25% fees .... it's hard to consistently increase money value and BTC count.

I agree with you about attempting to protect yourself from some of the price volatility, but I don't agree with the strategy that you seem to be suggesting, which is to sell when you see (or believe) that the price is going to go down - you are going to get screwed too many times if you attempt to time that and to figure that out.

The safer strategy is to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and part of the trick is figuring out increments and amounts in order that you neither run out of BTC to sell or money to buy with if the price tanks.

I have been employing such a strategy of buying on the way down and selling on the way up, and it seems to work pretty well.

A couple more things:  1) I don't think that it is a good idea to employ the selling part of the formula until you have figured out your accumulation targets and attempt to sufficiently accumulate before selling any BTC and 2) it is also a good idea to attempt to figure out various BTC/fiat ratios that you want to attempt to maintain and follow at certain price points.  Of course, you can have some flexibility, but you should also try to have a plan or an outline, too so that you can attempt to stay within certain predetermined parameters - which is especially important during very high volatility periods, when you don't wanna get nervous and deviate too much from your predetermined plan.

I will try this. Gracias

Good luck, and it will be nice to hear back from you concerning how it is going. 

I personally think that it takes quite a bit of practice to hone these kinds of strategies to your own personal style, etc... , and it is good to start out with small amounts and work your way up.. and even now, I have a pretty decent stash of BTC, yet for the most part, I only trade less than 10% of my stash, but it still seems to be profitable to do so (yet I am not opposed to trading larger amounts in the future, if I believe it is prudent to do so).

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is on a verge http://zentrade.online/bitcoinusd-price-action-analysis-bitmex-perpetual-swap-xbtusd-update-20170124/

There is hardly any support for the argument in the linked article... maybe it is true that prices are going to drop and mid- $800s support is going to drop to bring prices down to the $600s, but it seems quite a bit too premature to make that determination.... because we gotta drop below upper $800s first, before mid $800s even becomes a question, no? 

[European Central Bank]

So was the start of year pump some Chinese insiders having one last hurrah? That might explain the insane price difference.

[JayJuanGee]

hey all... i'm seeing btc between $1000 and $2400 first half of the year due to china unable to short or stop btc from rising when they yell stop pumping btc.... china is barely able to keep btc under $1000...the chinese mega whale almost got called at $1150.... the breakout will happen . .. china is panicking over price of bitcoin.

Are you saying that BTC prices will be bouncing around within that price range for the next six months or so?

You must have finally decided to go long in bitcoin,..... hahahahahha...   

By the way, your current price range prediction is seeming quite broad...   Are you merely trying to hedge in order to be right no matter what or do you just not have any more specifics in your current thinking?  Don't get me wrong, it is not a bad prediction (even though it does seem a bit more optimistic than even me), if it were to be true... $1,000 as the new floor and $2400 as the ceiling (at least in the next 5-6 months).. whowza!!!

i always was long ...

Maybe you were?  I have no real way of knowing for sure about your holdings, but I do recall that when we were in the lower $400s, you spent a considerable amount of time pumping PMs, and you also spent quite a bit of time suggesting that the ONLY way for bitcoin was down.. and spreading quit a bit of other related an non-substantiated FUD-like content.. .. you and your butt buddy, the BJ-meister.

I have no problem with predictions and contributions that are largely opinion based, but sometimes there still remains some needs to back some of the opinions up and to attempt to have some realistic probabilities in whatever it is that you are predicting, no?  And, now, for the moment, you seem to be converting into a non-substantive bull, no?

[JayJuanGee]

BTC is under attack! ===> http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

 

by a difficulty increase and people making transactions?

Wait this looks normal to you? Going from 10k unconfirmed transactions to 65k in under 12hrs? Or you just trolling?
https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-count?timespan=24h

No, I'm not trolling. Some simple math:

Say the network capacity is 15000 transactions per hour before the difficulty increase.  Now the difficulty jump reduces capacity by 17%. So now capacity is 2550 transactions per hour less. Now assuming transaction demand remains the same, in 12 hours you'll amass 30k transactions above capacity which go into the mempool.

So that alone explains more than half of the effect. No need to postulate a "spam attack". Any slight (10%) increase in demand at the same time would account for another 18k transactions making that 48k transactions, almost your measure 55k.

Wait even with you math, a sudden consistent spike of 10% in volume across the board right at the time of difficulty adjustment looks normal to you?
Now just a hypothetical, if you had limited resources and were to trying to spam the blockchain how exactly would you approach or perhaps time your attack?  we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/...

I'm not ruling out a spam attack, what you say is correct.

I just don't like the going from "woah, there's 50k tx in the mempool" to "it must be a spam attack" when any 10% fluctuation in demand would explain it because this "jumping to conclusions" is really diverting the view from the actual problem we have here: namely that we might be sending real users away to altcoins/paypal/....

I don't want that happening, but I'm pretty sure it is.

Postulating a spam attack (because it doesn't look "normal") everytime we hit the usage ceiling negates the existence of this problem and effectively diverts energy from solving it. I offered a different view that explains what's happening as quite "normal" so we can focus on the problem at hand: not enough capacity.

Seems like you are trying to ignore the evidence that seems quite apparently a spam attack, and to the extent that there is any kind of capacity issue, seg wit seems to be a pretty good ready-to-go solution - hopefully, we can get that going soon and maybe that even could address some of the capacity issues and maybe even ameliorate some of the kinds of apparent attacks that are taking place...   I will concede that seg wit does seem to be so close, yet so far because it seems to be taking miners quite a bit of time to update their software, since signaling still seems to be under 30%...

That's funny cause actions like these cause the exact opposite reaction in me. Like every time there's blatant spam attack some BU supporter hilariously attempts to claim that it's normal organic growth. To a point where they lose all credibility and i find myself automatically starting to assume that it's shilling. Not that it can't be organic growth just because there's so much attempt at disinformation as if someone is trying too hard

The sad state of the bitcoin community.

2 camps and no meaningful discussion can take place because both sides assume the other side to be somehow evil.

Probably "assumptions of evil" begin to percolate when some folks attempt to describe something that is clearly spam as "organic growth" and then attempt to spin that there is some capacity issue.  Hm?  I wonder what would be a quick emergency solution to address these "organic growth" issues?  Maybe it is a more subtle attempt to try to get some kind of immediate hard limit increase in the blocksizes, while refusing to acknowledge that seg wit is already there as a great next step forward?

[r0ach]

^of course ~ Mark Kerpeles is free!!!  

MtGox never actually went anywhere...Bitfinex became MtGox:

I told everyone I know to remove funds from there after Brexit because it appeared someone (probably Finex owners) were naked shorting with infinite money as I talked about here:

https://steemit.com/news/@r0achtheunsavory/bitfinex-is-lying-about-the-hack-and-i-can-tell-you-exactly-what-likely-happened

I even have screenshots still of right when Bitfinex came back online post-goxing.  See anything fishy in this picture?  An insolvent exchange in which nobody is actually going to put money on has all these big staggered walls on the sell side clearly all belonging to one entity (the house).  Bitfinex is an actual bucketshop 100%.



The fact that not Bitstamp or any other exchange passed Finex in volume post-finex collapse and Finex is still leading in volume even with no margin enabled shows how big of a scam the current bitcoin market is.  It's as if whenever a Karpeles Willy bot dies, a new one just pops up on a different exchange to trade with customer funds.  What happened on Finex appears to be no difference whatsoever with what happened on MtGox, yet Finex was somehow not forced out of business while Gox was.

[Torque]

i'm quite bearish

Relax, and.... MTFU   

[JayJuanGee]

I doubt that difficulty has anything directly to do with fewer transactions going through.  The more important metrics seem to be how many blocks are being processed per hour and whether those blocks are full or not.  I still stick by my assertion that such a sudden spike seems most logically to be a spam attack.

th dif went up 15% in <1 nano second, you need to understand that.

this was a huge dif incress increase, this indeed did significantly slow down the rate at which blocks are produced.

I concur

For some reason, when you frame the issue like that, Adam, what you are saying does make sense, and logically, could even cause a greater than 15% increase in block finding time... and thus a backlog of some of the transactions... so at this point, I will tentatively pull back on some of the vigor of my previous assertions....

I won't completely concede.. but at least pull back a bit for the moment... hahahahahaha
 

[Wolf Rainer]

What is happening in Huobi? I cant see the last days activity. In bitcoinwisdom the chart seems flat and transactions are frozen.

[jaberwock]

What is happening in Huobi? I cant see the last days activity. In bitcoinwisdom the chart seems flat and transactions are frozen.

I guess the problem is with bitcoinwisdom

maybe huobi updated their API, or something

if something happened that really stopped the trades in the Huobi exchange, people would be screaming about it everywhere and the market would be crazy

[Wolf Rainer]

What is happening in Huobi? I cant see the last days activity. In bitcoinwisdom the chart seems flat and transactions are frozen.

I guess the problem is with bitcoinwisdom

maybe huobi updated their API, or something

if something happened that really stopped the trades in the Huobi exchange, people would be screaming about it everywhere and the market would be crazy

You are right about that. But if that was the reason, it would not be the first time. I dont know then why people are so trolling about China quiting the market.

[Killerpotleaf]

come on 860 thats all i ask

Loaded, time to Unload dont you think!?

[Riddikulo]

What is happening in Huobi? I cant see the last days activity. In bitcoinwisdom the chart seems flat and transactions are frozen.

You must be on drugs, lol.

[Killerpotleaf]

[sgk]

come on 860 thats all i ask

Loaded, time to Unload dont you think!?

There's a 1000 BTC buy wall at $870 on Bitstamp. Some good buy support there.

[Killerpotleaf]

come on 860 thats all i ask

Loaded, time to Unload dont you think!?

There's a 1000 BTC buy wall at $870 on Bitstamp. Some good buy support there.

buy support feels pretty darn good lately, goes down hard and snaps back pretty quick.

still waiting for my target tho

[Killerpotleaf]

[Karpeles]

All this doom and gloom because a $9 fall in the price? Yes, I think now we are officially sideways.

And I already sodl, waiting for the chinese new year dump to buy back and get more bitcoins

[bitebits]

So what's the sentiment at the moment?  I am a bit confused what's been going on.

Are we all ok?

Mostly sideways for a while? I'm not feeling bullish or bearish.

You should be feeling very cautious given the extreme drop-off of volume coupled with a week long holiday from the country that was buying and selling the most BTC for the last 8 years.

FTFY: a net result of exactly 0. rjclarke is spot on.

I doubt that difficulty has anything directly to do with fewer transactions going through.  The more important metrics seem to be how many blocks are being processed per hour and whether those blocks are full or not.  I still stick by my assertion that such a sudden spike seems most logically to be a spam attack.

th dif went up 15% in <1 nano second, you need to understand that.

this was a huge dif incress, this indeed did significantly slow down the rate at which blocks are produced.

You can doubt and dodge all you want JJG. Luckily Bitcoin is just build on math and does not need to be convinced to produce a repeatable outcome:
Users are negatively affected which is our concern.