Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

As expected, it seems we move carefully through the 3k range and likely more carefully through 4k. Great news is that there's at least some groundwork support through the 3k range we previously didn't get much of and prices have held very well all the way through so far despite some attempts to dump. I'm expecting strong confirmations before entering 4k based on recent sentiment of the market.

[jojo69]

Yeah, as much as I would like to see a retest of the log support uptrend there is just no denying that bitcoin holding for all intents and purposes >$3k through all this FUD (and pretty much holding 3x gold...think about that) is just monumentally bullish.

[STT]

Im not sure any link to gold price matters exactly.  The market cap of gold is far greater, its just an arbitrary ounce comparison that has shown bitcoin has greater growth but thats as it should be.   Gold is not supposed to give any investment growth, its whole value system is based on no change in price over thousands of years.   The reason to buy gold is fear of extreme price changes which in a dollar system with this much debt is quite likely and even if not we'll see gold appear higher in price.   Its parallel to bitcoin in that both should have growth exceeding new units available where as dollar is held in reserve and is over produced relative to its trade growth.


The price of bitcoin I think is more positive now.   We are above the old trend line that could have been a cap to prices, that line is about 3900 so on the line but its respecting that and lower support must be taken as positive relatively.   Long term its best to have steady confirmation so it would be best to not rise from here too soon I guess.  Bitcoin does seem to have regular use and demand thanks to extreme FIAT moves in Japan or Venezuela, I presume it does have greater usage underway.
  Japan holds 1 trillion of US debt, the possibility for frightening acceleration is present every day I think, complacency is apparent which is probably a vital ingredient also.

[jojo69]

I agree that the OzAu comparison is arbitrary, but psychologically it is pretty compelling.  I remember the oldbugs repeating ad nauseam that BTC would NEVER = gold, and here we are, with China banning, again, in the midst of a correction, holding 3X.

feels good man

[ragnar0k]

Another great thing - although it is too early to say still - is that Goldman predicted bitcoin would be @2.2k
We just briefly touched 3k, but all in all we had a retrace of 30% (now just 20%), against the predicted 60%. Let's hope it holds!

[jbreher]

What about adopting a parrot? We are all pirates, after all. This way we can save our fingers some effort.

Way back machine engaged.

https://i.imgur.com/lKKfpQV.png
This post was brought to you courtesy of the way back machine.

The way back machine. It takes you way back.

I'll admit. I got greedy. I lost over 1300 Bitcoins in that fiasco. In principal - several times that if we include my (so-called) gains.

Not much for nostalgia on that one.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

What about adopting a parrot? We are all pirates, after all. This way we can save our fingers some effort.

Way back machine engaged.

https://i.imgur.com/lKKfpQV.png
This post was brought to you courtesy of the way back machine.

The way back machine. It takes you way back.

I'll admit. I got greedy. I lost over 1300 Bitcoins in that fiasco. In principal - several times that if we include my (so-called) gains.

Not much for nostalgia on that one.

Being a latecomer isn't all that bad. I missed a lot of nutty shit that could have got me in trouble.

[jojo69]

Zhou TONG!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdvTkddp1F0

[El duderino_]

END list, good luck!

19/9 rayx12 
24/9 kidbitter*
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02/10 bitchick *
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[savetherainforest]

Ignition!

Its getting close!   

[RoomBot]

This is a contest that all HODLERS win.

 

[LewisPirenne]

Ugh.. Trendon Shavers, I remember many people pointed out that this has got to be some kind of ponzi scam.  Yet there were flame wars going between supporters of the scheme and more skeptical people.  Not the best time in the Bitcointalk community.  Yes, I do have an account from late 2012, but I am not login that in until Theymos implements some kind of 2FA or Google login. Too many people lost their accounts to hacks recently.  

There's no shame in Bitcoinland.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1847311.msg18382142#msg18382142

Wow, I didn't know that even Finney's account was hacked.  Now I have to be more careful about various old accounts starting to posting again after all these years, lest they be some doppelgangers.

As for gold price, the "flow" matters more than "stock", since gold has a massive 190K ton stock, that's like 6 billion ounces, almost enough for 1 gold coin per population on this planet.  So you look at how much Indian demand are for this year and how many mines are going shut down or come online based on spot price and how much they hedged, etc.  Investment demand didn't have that much of an impact until like 12 years ago (unless you want to go back to 70's).  

The main problem with gold price (besides manipulation through derivatives) is the "scrap" or recycled supply whenever price spike.  Since gold has HUGE stock in the wild, when price spike, some people are going to haul in their hoard (jewelry and heirloom) and exchange them for cash.  Like this Japanese man who recently got robbed in the middle of Ginza, which is like the most upscale and prosperous area in Tokyo,   https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20170731/p2a/00m/0na/011000c
Or this one in Ginza again, http://www.tokyoreporter.com/2017/07/03/tokyo-cops-hunting-for-man-who-walked-off-with-3-kg-of-gold-in-ginza/
Or another one in different place http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/14/fake-police-walk-4m-gold-japan/
You can find similar report in Hong Kong too but often more bloody and sanguine.  

So it's reasonable to expect the BTC/Gold ratio to get bigger and bigger overtime since BTC does have less of an overhang in supply (e.g. whales waiting to dump).

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

A goldbug I used to work with tried to give me one of these from his roll during the collapse. To rub my nose in it...as it were.



I could never get him to understand. And now it's too late.

[triads]

Classic price movement: mania up to $4800, panic-sell drop to $3000, then price
settling in around $3900.  The go-no-where price of the last week is actually
really good for the coin... boring trade that's in equilibrium may not be good for
speculators or traders, but it's good for BTC.

[jojo69]

Classic price movement: mania up to $4800, panic-sell drop to $3000, then price
settling in around $3900.  The go-no-where price of the last week is actually
really good for the coin... boring trade that's in equilibrium may not be good for
speculators or traders, but it's good for BTC.

couldn't agree more

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Classic price movement: mania up to $4800, panic-sell drop to $3000, then price
settling in around $3900.  The go-no-where price of the last week is actually
really good for the coin... boring trade that's in equilibrium may not be good for
speculators or traders, but it's good for BTC.

I have no idea, what your´re talking about, but i´m hodling 

[SimonJones]

If it stays here for the rest of the year, it will be good for Bitcoin price. Then we will see a massive explosion next year.

[JayJuanGee]

If it stays here for the rest of the year, it will be good for Bitcoin price. Then we will see a massive explosion next year.

In recent days, I have come to the tentative conclusion that BTC prices are currently bouncing around in a kind of consolidation range of approximately $3400 to $4300 - so yeah, it is a BIG range and we are currently a bit into the upper half of such range; however, I don't really see any reason to get too excited if the price bounces around in such range - until it appears poised to break such range or if it does in fact break the range.... furthermore, since we seem to continue to be in a bull market, I place slightly higher chances that prices are going to break to the upside of the range, rather than to the downside of the range. 

[WhatsBitcoin]

12 months of sideways never hurt nobody

[Elwar]

Classic price movement: mania up to $4800, panic-sell drop to $3000, then price
settling in around $3900.  The go-no-where price of the last week is actually
really good for the coin... boring trade that's in equilibrium may not be good for
speculators or traders, but it's good for BTC.

Stability has always fueled the Bitcoin rocket.