Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Peter R]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

[1714709795]

1714709795

[1714709795]

1714709795

[1714709795]

1714709795

[1714709795]

1714709795

[1714709795]

1714709795

[jbreher]

Jbreher recently mentioned the tx capacity of an average computer. I quote:

The only serious investigation into the matter has proven that your average 'home' computer today can handle a simple block size increase that will net us about 100 tx/s. And with a fix to core's crappy multithreading design, can handle block size increase up to about 500 tx/s. And that is without looking for other sw architecture improvements.

Jbreher is usually accurate in his factual statements, and his math is usually flawless. However, he does have his bigblocker agenda in his mind when he posts. He failed to mention bandwidth and latency, which are the real bottlenecks - more so than storage or computing power.

It is true that I am a bigblocker. However, facts have no agenda.

Bandwidth at 100 tx/s: 3Mb/s. That's b as in bits, not B as in bytes.

What latency do you think is relevant? The only reason for the chain to be of blocks instead of transactions is to remove latency as an issue in arriving at consensus.

[jbreher]

Bitcoin Segwit2x hard fork Scheduled for December ‎‎28 2017 after calling off a month ago.

Source: http://b2x-segwit.io

Not really. The tech aspects of this new fork are divergent from those of the failed S2X fork.

[Neo_Coin]

[sirazimuth]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

[donmiguello]

I've been feeling that the price jump has been built on FOMO speculation for a while now. I think that the real, solid base is around $6k (roughly following the longer-term linear trend), but I expect speculators to stabilize it if it reaches $10k, at the very least, and then those prices might or might not stabilize.

So IMO $6k and below is "solid", $6k-$10k is semi-solid, and everything above $10k is a house of cards. No idea what'll actually happen in the next few days, though; it's pure speculative madness. In the next hour, I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $10k or an increase to $16k.

when all investors back from their vacations on january i think bitcoin will hit $22.000

[jbreher]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

idonotthinkthatmememeanswhatyouthinkitmeans.png

Sorry, couldnt resist....

[bones261]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

And what is to prevent the mining nodes, which are also the SPV servicing nodes, from simply ignoring the new upstart's node or charge them a fee? After all, the  tx must be relayed to a mining node, to be included in a block. You can start up your own mining operation, but it will face stiff competition from a certain company that already controls 70% of the ASIC manufacturing. You could then decide that you need to make your own Asic chip. Now, for your start up that can reasonably compete, you are talking quite the pretty penny just to setup. You really think they are going to be charging pennies?  

[sirazimuth]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

idonotthinkthatmememeanswhatyouthinkitmeans.png

Sorry, couldnt resist....

Youre right ,I dont have a frikkin clue what it means beyond the obvious. Feel free to enlighten my ignorance....

[btcbeliever]

Yeah, every trade is a taxable event to US persons. Whether that is buying coffee or litecoin. It is property according to the IRS.

Even if you thought you could get away with the like kind exchange rule, you still have to report every trade individually on the exemption form.

If it were classified as a stock, you could just report net gains and losses but not so with property.

They have made compliance nearly impossible so unless someone passes a law to exempt transactions prior to a certain date, a lot of people are going to owe back taxes and penalties if not jail time.

A great book everyone should read: http://www.paynoincometax.com/federalmafia.htm

[jbreher]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

idonotthinkthatmememeanswhatyouthinkitmeans.png

Sorry, couldnt resist....

Youre right ,I dont have a frikkin clue what it means beyond the obvious. Feel free to enlighten my ignorance....

Gee, and I thought you were just being facetious. So you really think Peter R's explanation of how competition works to drive down prices is incorrect, and deserves ridiculed dismissal?

[bones261]

Gee, and I thought you were just being facetious. So you really think Peter R's explanation of how competition works to drive down prices is incorrect, and deserves ridiculed dismissal?

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing (albeit grudgingly) to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

[nikauforest]

So much of what I hear is Bitcoin is being attacked. So I look to SunTzu the Art of War.
Full disclosure I own equal amounts of BTC and BCH. Mostly in cold wallets from 2014.

I could see where the following quotes could be applied to both BTC and BCH.

“the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: defeat, enemy, opportunity, strategy, war

“You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: business, strategy, war

“You can be sure of succeeding in your attacks if you only attack places which are undefended.You can ensure the safety of your defense if you only hold positions that cannot be attacked.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: attack, defence, safety, strategy, success, war

[sirazimuth]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

idonotthinkthatmememeanswhatyouthinkitmeans.png

Sorry, couldnt resist....

Youre right ,I dont have a frikkin clue what it means beyond the obvious. Feel free to enlighten my ignorance....

Gee, and I thought you were just being facetious. So you really think Peter R's explanation of how competition works to drive down prices is incorrect, and deserves ridiculed dismissal?

Oh shit did i do that? Too much eggnog... My humble apologies .

[Peter R]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space

HA!

Merry Christmas, you lunatic

[Imbatman]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

TX fees are high because your bullshit BCASH proponents spamming the network with 1 satoshi transactions.  Fuck you Peter. Just go away

[Peter R]

BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space

HA!

Merry Christmas, you lunatic

Merry Christmas to you too Mayor Bitcorn.  



Many prominent BS/Core developers have spoken (in public) to the need to maintain transaction fees at a high level (e.g., in order to subsidize 2nd layer systems such as Lightning Network, and in order to pay for security when the subsidy ends).

BS/Core also restricts competition by censoring developers from the mailing list, conferences and hiring a PR team to promote and control the narrative on social media.  Adam Back admitted to hiring a large PR team to "correct misinformation" on Twitter recently.

So, yeah, BS/Core meets the definition of a cartel.  

[bones261]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

[nikauforest]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

Does it matter the reason who or why transaction fees are high? To me the high fees are a weakness which is being attacked. It is completely predictable.
Bitcoin Cash sees an opportunity and it is attacking Bitcoin . (a predictable result)
“the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” ( Core's high fees)
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: defeat, enemy, opportunity, strategy, war