Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sirazimuth]

I thought this was supposed to be P2P trustless electronic cash. Not connect to some hub and pay additional fees. However, Mr Wright seems to think that if I run a node, and not mining, that I'm just a fat wallet wasting network resources. Such plebs as us should just connect via SPV and pay fees. Wow, Mr Wright, that's really going to help the unbanked of Africa.  

I'd expect there will always be some form or "free service" available (both for Merkle-branch proofs and for transaction confirmations).  But I suspect timely-confirmations will cost around a penny and that timely SPV proofs will cost several-orders of magnitudes less.

You have too much faith in many of these pool operators, who would be running the mining and the nodes. You really think they are going to charge pennies when they can command dollars?

If they were making absurd profits by overcharging their customers, then new businesses would start up additional SPV-servicing nodes and charge slightly-lower prices to win over customers and claim some of that juicy profit.  Eventually, a market forms where the marginal return on investment for new SPV-servicing nodes is close to the risk-free interest rate in the economy.

This is microeconomics 101.  

Sorry, couldnt resist....

idonotthinkthatmememeanswhatyouthinkitmeans.png

Sorry, couldnt resist....

Youre right ,I dont have a frikkin clue what it means beyond the obvious. Feel free to enlighten my ignorance....

Gee, and I thought you were just being facetious. So you really think Peter R's explanation of how competition works to drive down prices is incorrect, and deserves ridiculed dismissal?

Oh shit did i do that? Too much eggnog... My humble apologies .

[Peter R]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space

HA!

Merry Christmas, you lunatic

[Imbatman]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

TX fees are high because your bullshit BCASH proponents spamming the network with 1 satoshi transactions.  Fuck you Peter. Just go away

[Peter R]

BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space

HA!

Merry Christmas, you lunatic

Merry Christmas to you too Mayor Bitcorn.  



Many prominent BS/Core developers have spoken (in public) to the need to maintain transaction fees at a high level (e.g., in order to subsidize 2nd layer systems such as Lightning Network, and in order to pay for security when the subsidy ends).

BS/Core also restricts competition by censoring developers from the mailing list, conferences and hiring a PR team to promote and control the narrative on social media.  Adam Back admitted to hiring a large PR team to "correct misinformation" on Twitter recently.

So, yeah, BS/Core meets the definition of a cartel.  

[bones261]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

[nikauforest]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

Does it matter the reason who or why transaction fees are high? To me the high fees are a weakness which is being attacked. It is completely predictable.
Bitcoin Cash sees an opportunity and it is attacking Bitcoin . (a predictable result)
“the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” ( Core's high fees)
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: defeat, enemy, opportunity, strategy, war

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

The price of Bitcoin, it's too low. I liked it when it was higher. The world liked it when it was higher. This shouldn't even be an argument.

[jbreher]

Gee, and I thought you were just being facetious. So you really think Peter R's explanation of how competition works to drive down prices is incorrect, and deserves ridiculed dismissal?

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear.

Of course. Until some new entrant decides to compete, charging some lesser profit over cost of production, thereby amassing near-instant market share. The only way to prevent this is through imposition of some external force.

For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing (albeit grudgingly) to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

What you are witnessing in terms of the transaction cost is the effect of an artificial production quota - an instance of the canonical external force.

[roach_lost]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

Does it matter the reason who or why transaction fees are high? To me the high fees are a weakness which is being attacked. It is completely predictable.
Bitcoin Cash sees an opportunity and it is attacking Bitcoin . (a predictable result)
“the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” ( Core's high fees)
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: defeat, enemy, opportunity, strategy, war

All of this makes sense. The correct conduct is to just abstain from indulging in the grand promises from Satoshi's Bitcoin. This game was rigged, is rigged and will be rigged. The temporary individual gains will eventually be cancelled by an exponential expansion of 1984.

[bones261]

First of all, there is no perfect competition. Some businesses will always gain an edge. As happens over and over again, an oligarchy is eventually formed. If left unchecked, a cartel is then formed. Then the cartel can charge whatever price the market will bear. For some products and services, this price is quite high indeed. As can be seen from the current tx market with Bitcoin, the cost people are willing to expend on a transaction is quite high. Pennies is not going to be that price. It will be magnitudes of orders higher.

This is actually a good point.  TX fees are extremely high right now because BS/Core has formed a cartel in order to limit the production of block space.  What is confusing (and ironic) is that the miners (those who one would naively suspect to attempt to form a cartel) want the production quota lifted!  So, yes, experience is showing that Bitcoin is somewhat susceptible to cartel formation (it's just surprising that it's cartels of developers rather than cartels of miners).    

 Oh yes, this recent growth in the mempool is totally organic.   Or do you think Bitcoin Core may be deliberately spamming the network even though AFAIK, it would have no benefit to them? Seems like a pretty pricey demonstration for them to demonstrate why LN is needed. Of course, Saint Jihan Wu and friends would never consider stuffing the mempool with lower fee transactions so they can collect the higher transactions piling on top of that. We all know Saint Jihan Wu is much too altruistic to even consider doing something like that.  

Does it matter the reason who or why transaction fees are high? To me the high fees are a weakness which is being attacked. It is completely predictable.
Bitcoin Cash sees an opportunity and it is attacking Bitcoin . (a predictable result)
“the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.” ( Core's high fees)
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
tags: defeat, enemy, opportunity, strategy, war

Even if Bitcoin Cash was never launched, this would have been exploited for profit. However, Blockstream is developing an alternate method, which would give an alternative to this cash cow. No longer would you ultimately need a mining node to cash in. Also, the cost of entry for someone to set up a lightning network hub to profit will be lower than the set up cost for a mining/SPV node to handle unlimited block size, which is the ultimate goal of Bitcoin Cash. Always remember, a miner has the power to include or exclude any transaction from the block they are trying to mine. Even with unlimited blocksize, a mining node can elect to exclude any transaction using any criteria. The criteria most likely to be used is a certain "small fee." Add on top of this the "small monthly SPV service fee." I hear the cash registers ringing for Jihan Wu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpbbuaIA3Ds

[roach_lost]

The price of Bitcoin, it's too low. I liked it when it was higher. The world liked it when it was higher. This shouldn't even be an argument.

The world wants it to be higher. It will be much, MUCH higher. Consider it the cost of a PR giveaway vs. other forms of PR. It will be worth it to the ones giving it away. This is similar to free email or free social networking, a bargain to you and a bargain to them. Fortunately they want you in the blockchain about 1000 times as much as they want you on Facebook so here comes the money.
It's a sell your soul kind of deal but it seems like they have all been for most of us during the past seventy years or so. The question is, do we actually have a choice?

[rolling]

FACT CHECK

Ok, as of right now, the price to send a transaction in the next block is about 140 satoshis per byte and a typical 1 input/2 output transaction is about 225 bytes. At $14k per bitcoin, a satoshi is worth $0.00014. So, 140 X 225 X $0.00014 = $4.41 per transaction.

Value of a Satoshi = Bitcoin price divided by 100,000,000
Typical Transaction Size = 225 bytes
Current fee in Satoshis per byte for next block = 140

Satoshi Value x Typical Transaction Size x Satoshi fee per byte = Transaction Cost.

Currently:
$0.00014 X 225 X 140 = $4.41

At the peak:
$0.00020 x 225 x 1000 = $45.00

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

The price of Bitcoin, it's too low. I liked it when it was higher. The world liked it when it was higher. This shouldn't even be an argument.

The world wants it to be higher. It will be much, MUCH higher. Consider it the cost of a PR giveaway vs. other forms of PR. It will be worth it to the ones giving it away. This is similar to free email or free social networking, a bargain to you and a bargain to them. Fortunately they want you in the blockchain about 1000 times as much as they want you on Facebook so here comes the money.
It's a sell your soul kind of deal but it seems like they have all been for most of us during the past seventy years or so. The question is, do we actually have a choice?

At this time of year, for some reason, I like to think of those ancient mariners that survived the ice age floods, spreading across the globe, obsessed with loss.

[civilufo]

FACT CHECK

Ok, as of right now, the price to send a transaction in the next block is about 140 satoshis per byte and a typical 1 input/2 output transaction is about 225 bytes. At $14k per bitcoin, a satoshi is worth $0.00014. So, 140 X 225 X $0.00014 = $4.41 per transaction.

Value of a Satoshi = Bitcoin price divided by 100,000,000
Typical Transaction Size = 225 bytes
Current fee in Satoshis per byte for next block = 140

Satoshi Value x Typical Transaction Size x Satoshi fee per byte = Transaction Cost.

Currently:
$0.00014 X 225 X 140 = $4.41

At the peak:
$0.00020 x 225 x 1000 = $45.00

Nice calculation sharing. I remember I have been charged for $30+ on my last transaction this month. Sooner or later the transaction fee will be sky high once bitcoin climbs to a new height.

[podyx]

Are we going down? Kinda looks like we headed for lower lows

[triads]

Are we going down? Kinda looks like we headed for lower lows

Orderly correction in progress... volume does not indicate panic. So far, I'd say it's just taking some of the froth out of the price.

[triads]

CME is colossal, more and more fuel is added to the rocket.

Um... it's not guaranteed "rocket fuel". CME futures actually allow traders to short BTC.  In other words, it's equally likely that traders can push the price down, as well as up.

[realr0ach]

Is there still a chance bitcoin breaks ath before the new year?

Get me some of whatever this guy is smoking.

[bones261]

Is there still a chance bitcoin breaks ath before the new year?

Get me some of whatever this guy is smoking.

You never know. DCG may decide they need to offload some $20K+ BTC to some noobs on Coinbase to ring in the New Year.

PS: I live in Colorado, so you already know what I have been smoking.