Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wobber]

One could really play the market last few days just on trading hours. It's almost a rule that price goes up when China wakes up and dips when they're ready to hit the bed. Same pattern for days.

But maybe today's different and China won't go to bed, helping us to go to the moon.!

[seleme]

And then people say Gox price doesn't matter.

[seleme]

One could really play the market last few days just on trading hours. It's almost a rule that price goes up when China wakes up and dips when they're ready to hit the bed. Same pattern for days.

But maybe today's different and China won't go to bed, helping us to go to the moon.!

I'm not sure you're talking that to the guy who actually wants that, hehe... I wouldn't mind BTC going to $5000 but 600-700 would be bad thing for my positions right now.

[hlynur]

Sure, but still at some point it must become profitable for someone..  If btcchina was at $1m/bitcoin and Btc-e was at $100/bitcoin, someone wouldn't take advantage?

Cmon homeboy

But I don't understand why CHINESE people don't do this. You don't need an American partner or a trip to America to open a USD-denominated bank account.

Pretty much every Chinese Bitcoiner should be cashing in on their 50k right now...

i'm sure someone is taking advantage of it,
but it's still china, could become a lot of hassle if you don't have the right connections.

[seleme]

Not many of them are doing it otherwise there would be no big difference.

Hence it's not easy thing to do otherwise there would be many of them doing it and there would be no big difference, lol.

[jojo69]

the difference in price IS the cost of working the arb at this time, or very close to it, has to be

[BitThink]

*checking chinese subforum*
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=329534.0

Remember how BTC-E has always had low prices? There's a reason for that: hard to get money in.

And you know how now BTCCHINA has really high prices? There's a reason for that, too: hard to get money out.

If it was easy to do, people would already be doing it and we wouldn't see as large a gap as we do. China is a Communist country, and they have a strong hold on their currency. Just doing some quick Googling, Chinese residents can only send $50,000 per year overseas.

So, let's say you put up $45,000 to buy 150 coins. Send them to China, sell for $340 each, split the $6,000 profit with your Chinese partner, and have them wire back $48,000 (while also possibly paying taxes and bank fees, etc).

Oh, and don't forget to add in your trip to China  

So you might make $3,000 for the year. You could exceed the limit by having your Chinese contact's friends and relatives send you transfers in their names, but it seems like that would require even more trust.  And if the price of bitcoins goes way up and the price difference stays the same, you'll hit your limit earlier and make less profit.

It's a nice idea in theory, but I don't think it will pan out as well as it looks. Please let us know if you do try it, though!  

But I don't understand why CHINESE people don't do this. You don't need an American partner or a trip to America to open a USD-denominated bank account.

Pretty much every Chinese Bitcoiner should be cashing in on their 50k right now...

The price difference is around 10%, and the internet wire fee and exchange rate loss (RMB -> USD -> RMB) can be more than 5%. Then after all the trouble, you can only get $2500 for a year. Those guys who will spend $50k on bitcoin can easy make that amount in couple of days by just staying in BTCChina (considering the 0 trading fee and high volatility).

[Voodah]

the difference in price IS the cost of working the arb at this time, or very close to it, has to be

This.

Arbitrage is being done across ALL exchanges. The differences in prices are accounted for by the differences in deposit, withdrawal and trading fees, plus all fiat moving fees involved.

[bnjmnkent]

In the meanwhile..

Btcchina at almost $400, compared to Stamp at $365.  And still apparently no one has figured out the arbitrage.

you need a chinese bank account to withdraw your fiat, but you need to visit china to get a bank account

thats the problem  

I'm not implying most people could do it.  But surely someone could do it, and would be doing it, you'd think.

lol

*checking chinese subforum*
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=329534.0

Remember how BTC-E has always had low prices? There's a reason for that: hard to get money in.

And you know how now BTCCHINA has really high prices? There's a reason for that, too: hard to get money out.

If it was easy to do, people would already be doing it and we wouldn't see as large a gap as we do. China is a Communist country, and they have a strong hold on their currency. Just doing some quick Googling, Chinese residents can only send $50,000 per year overseas.

So, let's say you put up $45,000 to buy 150 coins. Send them to China, sell for $340 each, split the $6,000 profit with your Chinese partner, and have them wire back $48,000 (while also possibly paying taxes and bank fees, etc).

Oh, and don't forget to add in your trip to China  

So you might make $3,000 for the year. You could exceed the limit by having your Chinese contact's friends and relatives send you transfers in their names, but it seems like that would require even more trust.  And if the price of bitcoins goes way up and the price difference stays the same, you'll hit your limit earlier and make less profit.

It's a nice idea in theory, but I don't think it will pan out as well as it looks. Please let us know if you do try it, though!  

Sure, but still at some point it must become profitable for someone..  If btcchina was at $1m/bitcoin and Btc-e was at $100/bitcoin, someone wouldn't take advantage?

Cmon homeboy

Maybe traders assume there is soon a chinese SR-like takedown to come? This risk is therefore reflected in the price difference.
Is this called efficient market hypothesis - dunno?

[SheHadMANHands]

the difference in price IS the cost of working the arb at this time, or very close to it, has to be

This.

Arbitrage is being done across ALL exchanges. The differences in prices are accounted for by the differences in deposit, withdrawal and trading fees, plus all fiat moving fees involved.

Then they aren't very efficient.

[ChartBuddy]

[mb300sd]

I read somewhere gox just opened a new bank account in japan. Shouldn't it be alot easier for the japanese to get cny or the chinese to get jpy? Just hop a plane back and forth, can't be too expensive.

[Voodah]

the difference in price IS the cost of working the arb at this time, or very close to it, has to be

This.

Arbitrage is being done across ALL exchanges. The differences in prices are accounted for by the differences in deposit, withdrawal and trading fees, plus all fiat moving fees involved.

Then they aren't very efficient.

I think you are grossly underestimating the big players involved by now in BTC, and how easy it is for anyone with big money to have multi-national presence.

FFS I live in a 3rd world country and I can honestly tell you the amount of small and medium businesses here that operate with all three of a national, a US and a EU or Chinese bank account is huge. And they are simple businesses, not big money whales. It is true though, that arbitraging is the name of the game over here, with our devaluating currencies and black markets. But truth be told, it is nowhere near impossible.

 

[TERA]

That was very frustrating. I read the chart on gox perfectly and shorted right before a $25 drop on gox. Bit stamp moves $3 and I barely make anything on the trade before having to panic buy back. I should have traded on btce.

[Mashrock]

I read somewhere gox just opened a new bank account in japan. Shouldn't it be alot easier for the japanese to get cny or the chinese to get jpy? Just hop a plane back and forth, can't be too expensive.

China and Japan are playing war games

[ChartBuddy]

[strawbs]

[I just posted this in the Bitcoin Discussion Forum but I usually hangout here, so forgive me for posting it again here]

After seeing the tragedy unfolding in the Philippines over the last couple of days, I felt the need to donate to a disaster relief charity here in UK (http://www.dec.org.uk/appeals/philippines-typhoon-appeal).

I was pleasantly surprised that the charity accepts donations via PayPal, which led me to send an email to them to ask whether they had considered accepting BTC too.  It then struck me that if a charity were to receive lots of similar requests, they could begin to consider it as a means of receiving donations.  After all, charities are pretty hard up these days and are always looking for innovative ways of raising money.  BTC seems absolutely perfect for charitable giving/receiving, especially across international borders: no transaction fees = more money straight to the charity.

Then, with my speculative hat on  I figured that if a big name charity were to begin to accept BTC it could generate lots of positive publicity ("Oxfam accepts Bitcoin", etc).

Let us all bombard household name charities with requests for them to accept BTC (obviously, you must be willing to donate something too!).

[NamelessOne]

We appear to be forming a good old Bitcoin triangle, could take another day to start really seeing it. Could bounce off the bottom line again anywhere from 335 to 350 depending on when it hits that zone. Then perhaps... to the moon. 

[ChartBuddy]

[molecular]

We appear to be forming a good old Bitcoin triangle, could take another day to start really seeing it. Could bounce off the bottom line again anywhere from 335 to 350 depending on when it hits that zone. Then perhaps... to the moon.  

I don't see it (EDIT: the triangle).