Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rosewater Foundation]

why the fuck are you here?

We're just trying to do our time. We don't want any trouble, man.

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[marcus_of_augustus]

[El duderino_]

And the new POLL Will look like ? 

[bitserve]

I try to not invest in anything that requires government intervention. This includes stocks, real estate, anything bank related...

well, actually it only leaves crypto.

I would love to own real estate but I have to trust that the government that sanctions such property will not need to extract value from that property when their bills start to add up. Same with anything of value that the government could possibly manipulate. That's why I pulled out everything from my Roth IRA. The idea being that I can invest now and the government won't take taxes on it when I retire...ya, I'll believe that one when the US federal government is $21 trillion in debt.

You could invest in all those things if you counter balance it a bit with a gold holding.   Also avoid leverage is usually best as thats how banks often profit the most, from the people in the most difficult situations.
In 2008 one of the largest banks who received a bailout setup a special division to hunt down business that was relying on them, foreclose and seize the assets for a quick turnover.  They needed the cash quick to appear solvent and taking it from those who cant argue because they took a loan is the easiest way.   Bank overdraft almost always contains the warning we can withdraw and demand repayment immediately and quite a few businesses use those I think.

Otherwise I dont think they can remove your property rights so easily.  You are part of a larger group there.   The guy who called the MBS melt down now owns some bank stocks apparently M.Burry

Price has a stair case higher, looks quite steady progress overall.  9600 area would be over 61% recovery of the double peak decline for this year

I would invest in gold if I weren't so mobile globally.

As for real estate...ya, that might be the last thing they take or it will be the first thing they take if it's convenient for them.

If I don't have enough fellow patriots to come help me with a standoff I'm screwed for that investment.

Of course there is absolutely no investment that is 100% risk free, but real estate is "safe enough". As other posters said it is incredibly unlikely they would just take it from everybody without causing a civil war. Even raising the property taxes significantly is unlikely.

But, above all, that's exactly the point of diversifying and hedging. Don't put all your eggs in the same basket (ie only in real estate). Having a one or two real estate properties when that is just a small percentage of your total net worth wouldn't hurt even if the worst case happens. More so when you just said you would love to own... if not for the fear of being taken from you.

Oh, and that partially solves the mobility problem about gold... you know, a deep hole in a unknown place inside your property...

If you can do it with a small part of your current net worth... I would go for it... but that's just me of course.

[bitebits]

SEC Chairman - Bitcoin is not a security but almost all tokens are.  Silent on ETH.

https://coincenter.org/link/sec-chairman-clayton-bitcoin-is-not-a-security

Very underrated post, quoting for visibility.

[Last of the V8s]

SEC Chairman - Bitcoin is not a security but almost all tokens are.  Silent on ETH.

https://coincenter.org/link/sec-chairman-clayton-bitcoin-is-not-a-security

Very underrated post, quoting for visibility.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Overinvested people are the weak hands that dump the price when the water starts drowning them. We don't need any more of those. Going all in is great... until it isn't.

Seems that no matter what, there are going to be both gamblers and over-investors and panic sellers.  We are not going to get rid of that dynamic in bitcoin, especially when there are other folks who purposefully spread information to attempt to get some folks to sell and the information is not going to be equally shared.  The hODLers and accumulators (the strategic ones) are going to continue to advantage by the information disparities... and those who think that they can beat the market by selling or shorting bitcoin or they are lacking confidence in the upside potential of bitcoin, when they either sell or fail to buy.

Yeah, that's the better strategy, buy an amount you are confortable with no matter what and just HODL.

I agree that buying and holding is good, but also, we have to think in terms of cashflow too.   Sometimes people can take 5% or 10% of their cashflow and invest into bitcoin, and really not be hurt, but end up profiting handsomely from a kind of dollar cost average investing that works... to continue to accumulate.

I do think that holding is good, but I also think that selling small amounts on the way up can be good too.. or having a plan to sell 5% or 10% or some other reasonable amount everytime bitcoin goes up 10x... or some other kinds of incrementalist selling on the way up.. and even perhaps using some of that generated capital to continue to dollar cost average buy back in with it.

That being said... I probably have more than 25% (don't want to calculate nor say it) of my total net worth on crypto... and... sometimes I have felt the pressure of the water even if I have enough FIAT reserves for "modestly living/surviving" for more than a decade even with no additional income and crypto being zeroed out.

We do not necessarily need to share all of our particulars, but I will say that initially, in 2013, I had planned to invest about 10% of my total investments into bitcoin, so it took me nearly a year to reach my goal (by the end of 2014).. But then bitcoin's price appreciation from 2015 to 2017 (and still maintaining in 2018) has allowed the proportion of my investment in bitcoin to go way up.. which is a nice problem to have and a problem that many bitcoin hodlers likely have, especially if they had already accumulated their position prior to 2017-ish - or even if they established their position before mid-August 2017 and were not scared out of their position from a lot of the scary stuff (FUD information being spread about during that time).  As you may recall, things wen fairly rapidly after that.. and many peeps may not have been able to get back into bitcoin  because of sales of their bitcoin that they made before mid-August 2017 (that's the below $2,500 price range) because bitcoin may have gone on a kind of punitive stage - even though you never know if we may have a possible (hope for the roaches) return to sub $3k price territories, perhaps?

Wouldn't like to be the guy with 100% BET on ANYTHING... no.

In this regard, you and I are on the same page, and 100% thinking may sound all fine and dandy to inspire confidence, but it just is not prudent, and involves too much gambling and blindness to how the world (and future prediction) actually does work, in reality.

[JayJuanGee]

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

Agreed, partially. Even if you did put just 5% initially or even 1%, when crypto grows to over 90% of your total net worth and you know it is enough to "retire" and you see it dumping to one third.... that hurts.... let's just call it "sudden overinvested situation". That's also a thing.

Diversifying some is not stupid at all. And it makes you stronger hand for the remaining stash.

I think that the scenario that you are describing, bitserve, is a perception problem and even perhaps a problem of someone who should have taken more out of their bitcoin investment while the prices were on their way up, rather than experiencing a kind of panic feeling of overinvested when the prices are coming back down - even though you are correct to presume that perhaps any of us could fall into one of these kinds of perceptions of mistake where we see the value of our BTC holdings falling rapidly and therefore, conclude that our best strategy would be (for our own psychology, planning and regrouping) to dump a bit of the bitcoin in order to feel better and to lock in some of our gains before the value goes a lot lower.

Some diversification can be a good thing - however, sometimes we have to be careful about what we are diversifying into.. sometimes people try to sell you crap, with the concept of "diversification," and also I believe like Hairy mentioned, the need for diversifying might be less if you are feeling "overinvested" due to price appreciation of the asset, rather than due to having had put that much into the asset- and sometimes there is a considerable justification to maintain some overinvestment into an asset that is performing well rather than putting money into poorly performing assets merely for the sake of "diversification"... so one way to "get rich" might be to allow some of your profits ride for a long time within a strongly performing asset, such as bitcoin... because there is really no fundamental reason (including at this time) to expect that bitcoin's future performance is peaked out or anything like that.  Not yet anyhow.

[Rosewater Foundation]

[JayJuanGee]

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

After every major rally or "bubble" I cash out 50-70% of whatever total profit I made from holding and trading so I can leave the market and take a break before the next one. I have been around for 3 of these events. Since I do lots of trading (mostly altcoins) during the rally, this amount actually ends up just being trading profit and not my principal (in btcs).  The time I perform the cashout is when the rally is clearly over and most of the volatility from the resultant crash has gone away so that sticking around to daytrade becomes a waste of time. Usually btc is hovering around its median value or in some kind of dead cat bounce at that point. I know I took a lot out in 2014 as you said but I have never been all the way out. There has always been at least 25% remaining. In 2017 during the rally I broke my rules and kept cashing out early before the rally was over. I dont have an explanation for this that fits in my model. However I made all of this back times 3 trading altcoins (some with leverage) and then did the cashout again in Feb-Mar... At this point the rally was clearly over, I was trusting exchanges with way too much money, and cashing out was mandatory for tax purposes.

Thanks for that explanation.  Sometimes you seem to talk in such absolutes that it could be misleading to figure out what you are doing, and surely, I understand that sometimes the market will cause some of us to deviate from our own guidelines. 

The bitcoin (and even crypto) market can be a very passionate inspiring thing, which causes mistakes and perhaps adjustments and perhaps some lucking out that profits in one area will offset losses in another area.  Furthermore sometimes, locking in profits remains a good thing - even if it causes some loss of opportunities to profit more, and we cannot always punish ourselves for that kind of selling too early behavior.   

I personally believe that peeps can still profit from less volatile times, but to each their own, and surely I have some difficulties predicting the end of volatility in bitcoin, including in 2015 - it was difficult to know that we were going to have such a flat year, but in any event, I am in a better position to profit from even that low level of volatility now, as compared to my then trading set up.. which back in 2015, I was only buying, I only started selling in late 2015.. so my system has evolved... . 

You may or may not be correct in an attempt to predict bitcoin or crypto to be currently entering into less volatile era - and I get the sense that our current BTC price battle is not over.. and there are decent odds that considerable volatility is going to continue for bitcoin in the coming year and we may not get any volatility lapse until after the halvening, but what do I know?

 And, really, I don't care that much if upcoming volatility goes down somewhat because I am going to continue to pay attention to bitcoin whether it is volatile or not.. and I believe that the system that I have in place is going to be able to bring adequate profits to me whether bitcoin is volatile or not (or a volatility difference between trading several times a day which is very volatile or perhaps not having any  buy/sell orders fill for weeks at a time which would be low volatility).  I recall that I have asserted several times that one of the most counted-on things in bitcoin is that it is going to be volatile.. so I remain of that opinion that the odds for continued volatility in bitcoin remain greater than going into some low volatility status.

[Rosewater Foundation]

[Torque]

Of course there is absolutely no investment that is 100% risk free, but real estate is "safe enough".

Real estate as an investment is ok if:

1. You own it outright, or are actively working to own it outright

2. It pays you back (e.g., renter or leaser income)

3. It has some appreciation

Otherwise, it definitely isn't an "asset" unless it meets those criteria. It is a liability. I cringe when I hear people talk about their home as an "asset", especially when it's not paid off and they have zero intention of ever selling it.

[Last of the V8s]

Of course there is absolutely no investment that is 100% risk free, but real estate is "safe enough".

Real estate as an investment is ok if:

1. You own it outright, or are actively working to own it outright

2. It pays you back (e.g., renter or leaser income)

3. It has some appreciation

Otherwise, it definitely isn't an "asset" unless it meets those criteria. It is a liability. I cringe when I hear people talk about their home as an "asset", especially when it's not paid off and they have zero intention of ever selling it.

4. You're well stocked up on bullets to defend it when the time comes.

[Fatman3001]

Happy May Day!!!



Workers Of The World Unite!

[Last of the V8s]

4. You're well stocked up on bullets to defend it when the time comes.

The utter state of the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/25/non-english-speaking-victims-crime-given-priority-police-chief/

It's fine though

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/royal-wedding-prince-harry-meghan-markle-getting-married-latest/

Anyway

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/12022041/How-political-correctness-rules-in-Americas-student-safe-spaces.html

We follow where you lead.

[Torque]

Anyway

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/12022041/How-political-correctness-rules-in-Americas-student-safe-spaces.html

We follow where you lead.

Ah but you see, after a generation or two that problem will solve itself.

Snowflakes don't know how to be successful and make money. They only know how to run up debt (including student loan debt). So eventually their progeny won't even be able to afford those high brow schools anymore, lol.

[Elwar]

Of course there is absolutely no investment that is 100% risk free, but real estate is "safe enough".

Real estate as an investment is ok if:

1. You own it outright, or are actively working to own it outright

2. It pays you back (e.g., renter or leaser income)

3. It has some appreciation

Otherwise, it definitely isn't an "asset" unless it meets those criteria. It is a liability. I cringe when I hear people talk about their home as an "asset", especially when it's not paid off and they have zero intention of ever selling it.

When you have to pay property taxes can you ever really say "You own it outright"?

[Elwar]

Happy May Day!!!



Workers Of The World Unite!

Happy May Day.

Today I lit a candle in front of my Karl Marx statue and repeated the planks of the Communist Manifesto...again.

So many socialist holidays...so few candles...

[Torque]

When you have to pay property taxes can you ever really say "You own it outright"?

No not really. But depending on where you live there are ways to reduce it to an acceptable level.

[bitserve]

Of course there is absolutely no investment that is 100% risk free, but real estate is "safe enough".

Real estate as an investment is ok if:

1. You own it outright, or are actively working to own it outright

2. It pays you back (e.g., renter or leaser income)

3. It has some appreciation

Otherwise, it definitely isn't an "asset" unless it meets those criteria. It is a liability. I cringe when I hear people talk about their home as an "asset", especially when it's not paid off and they have zero intention of ever selling it.

Mostly agree. But:

1- If you can get some tax deductions for deferring payments that compensates the interest it is ok too. Other than that, yep, just pay it fully outright if you can.

2- If you can earn some reasonable ROI from it it can be considered an investment, appreciation/deprecciation of the underlining asset should be taken into consideration too for the calculation of the ROI.

3- See point 2.

A home is an asset because it has the ROI of not having to spend in renting. I don't know about other countries, but here you can basically pay your home for what would otherwise be 20-25 years of renting. You would spend the same... but you would end up fully owning it instead of having nothing. I know in some countries (like US) job mobility is so extreme that you can't attach to fixed location for more than a few years.... YMMV

Also, real estate is some market where your research / bargain hunting skills can get your pretty good deals where you just hit a great ROI at the exact moment of purchase. It is not unheard being able to buy at half market price if you are good at it and spend enough time/research until the opportunity crosses your path -and have the funds available to take the opportunity right away-.

Oh, and you can always do a "reverse mortgage" when you are in your late years to fully milk the "home" asset.