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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21178984 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (24 posts by 13 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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April 30, 2018, 07:33:27 AM

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.
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bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 07:38:21 AM

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  Cool

Of course, you can get richer going all in on a (retrospectively) HUGELY appreciating asset. But you never know for sure what will happen in the future... and you can get rich with a 25% if that 25% is enough and you can get poor if you are all in and the winds change.

He said that 25% is from his total net worth including real estate, fiat, stocks, everything. And, above all, that he tries to maintain his number of Bitcoins from the beginning extracting only some profits here and there and diversifying it.

It looks reasonable to me.
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April 30, 2018, 07:43:07 AM

He is serious. You won’t get rich restricting your best asset to 25% of the value of your portfolio.

Diversification is very effective at killing moonshot gains.  You need to allow it headroom to grow.  

Give me two more years like 2017.  Is that too much to ask?  Cool

Yea, give me two more years like 2017 Smiley

What you say is perhaps true, however you are not factoring in other data.

1) For instance, if you already have wealth , do you then have 90% of your wealth in one asset?
2) You can still have amazing growth in other assets. For example marijuana stocks, gold stocks, A2 Milk for example on the NZX. 600% is not that bad for a stock.
3) I guess when you have wealth , you also need to look for ways to protect it.
4) Age makes a difference.

I do get your point. I guess it is a matter of personal strategy and where you are at in life.
HairyMaclairy
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April 30, 2018, 07:43:50 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?
bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 07:51:24 AM
Last edit: April 30, 2018, 08:15:28 AM by bitserve

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.

My General strategy.

1) I try to keep my bitcoin and crypto to no more than 20-25% of my net worth.
Some may think this is low, others too high. This what I am comfortable with. This includes realestate etc.
2) With price appreciation in the crypto portfolio , I generally recycle out profits to three areas, stocks, Gold, and US dollars ( short term).
A) Stocks I use for income and capital appreciation.
B) Gold for long term stable holdings ( relatively speaking)
C) US dollars for buying more Bitcoin or to withstand bear markets.
3) Generally I am recycling some alt coin profits into BTC and Gold right now.
4) I got involved in Bitcoin in 2013 and have maintained my position. ( total number of coins ) While harvesting profits and recycling them into other assets.

Goals:
1) I want to maintain my total number of BTC
2) Recycle out some profits from trades for other assets or increased life style.

I am definitely not as big a holder in BTC as some of you, but is has been a great ride so far.


You can't get rich like that. You need to pour everything you got into bitcoin and hold for a 10x return and then go get a lambo.

That's how it works. If you go with this way, Diversification and shit, like me used to do, you'll stay poor forever.

Irony or really serious? I really can't tell....

You are correct, bitserve, some peeps really believe that kind of shit, that you have to go all in and gamble... and the truth of the matter with bitcoin has been that the returns have been so great that even modest investment strategies result in peeps becoming rich, as long as they largely HODL.

Overinvested people are the weak hands that dump the price when the water starts drowning them. We don't need any more of those. Going all in is great... until it isn't. Yeah, that's the better strategy, buy an amount you are confortable with no matter what and just HODL.

That being said... I probably have more than 25% (don't want to calculate nor say it) of my total net worth on crypto... and... sometimes I have felt the pressure of the water even if I have enough FIAT reserves for "modestly living/surviving" for more than a decade even with no additional income and crypto being zeroed out.

Wouldn't like to be the guy with 100% BET on ANYTHING... no.
HairyMaclairy
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April 30, 2018, 07:57:52 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  
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April 30, 2018, 07:58:29 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?
HairyMaclairy
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April 30, 2018, 08:01:05 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?

Let’s not kid ourselves.  His non-Bitcoin diversified portfolio of gold and real property  did not 10x this year.
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April 30, 2018, 08:07:07 AM

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

Agreed, partially. Even if you did put just 5% initially or even 1%, when crypto grows to over 90% of your total net worth and you know it is enough to "retire" and you see it dumping to one third.... that hurts.... let's just call it "sudden overinvested situation". That's also a thing.

Diversifying some is not stupid at all. And it makes you stronger hand for the remaining stash.
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April 30, 2018, 08:08:17 AM

To the moon kids!
bitserve
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April 30, 2018, 08:09:55 AM

I fail to see how you can maintain the same number of Bitcoin AND hold your Bitcoin value to 25% of your portfolio

How exactly does one achieve this?

That's a good question. I would bet that 25% is a point he recently reached and he is now trying to maintain. Also, who said his diversified portfolio+income doesn't grow too?

Let’s not kid ourselves.  His non-Bitcoin diversified portfolio of gold and real property  did not 10x this year.

Probably true. Unless he only have a few Bitcoins, is a very good trader, have a great salary and not many expenses.
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April 30, 2018, 08:15:43 AM

There is a huge difference based on your start point.

Someone who puts in 50% of their wealth is weak hands.

Someone who puts in 5% of their wealth and allows it to grow to 90% should be strong hands, especially if they have already taken out twice their original investment in profits.  

It is like Hairy reads my mind. Last year around today, I had %3 of my net worth in crypto. Then I started to buy and hold, Now it is %30. Mostly thanks to the major pump. At some point in December it was close to %50. Did i get rich? No.

I lost thousands of USD just because I didn't get out in time but you know what? I don't care. I can sleep at nights pretty well because I know It is not going to zero. I'll keep investing more and this time I won't be a pussy. This time we do it right. This time I am going Sparta %100.

For Pandariaaa



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April 30, 2018, 08:33:33 AM
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Anyone who bought Bitcoin before 2017 could probably have sold 10% recently to reduce their net exposure to zero.

After this the % of portfolio it represents is a little less of a problem, stress-wise - and it's merely a defensive move to diversify and /or lock in profits made.
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April 30, 2018, 08:33:52 AM

https://twitter.com/whitequark/status/980522328151834624 thread
https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/how-to-kill-a-supercomputer-dirty-power-cosmic-rays-and-bad-solder
Quote
An even more dramatic example of cosmic-radiation interference happened at Virginia Tech’s Advanced Computing facility in Blacksburg. In the summer of 2003, Virginia Tech researchers built a large supercomputer out of 1,100 Apple Power Mac G5 computers. They called it Big Mac. To their dismay, they found that the failure rate was so high it was nearly impossible even to boot the whole system before it would crash.

The problem was that the Power Mac G5 did not have error-correcting code (ECC) memory, and cosmic ray–induced particles were changing so many values in memory that out of the 1,100 Mac G5 computers, one was always crashing. Unusable, Big Mac was broken apart into individual G5s, which were sold one by one online. Virginia Tech replaced it with a supercomputer called System X, which had ECC memory and ran fine.
Reminder - Universe wants to flip your bits yo. Use that ECC memory.
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April 30, 2018, 08:45:23 AM

Anyone who bought Bitcoin before 2017 could probably have sold 10% recently to reduce their net exposure to zero.

After this the % of portfolio it represents is a little less of a problem, stress-wise - and it's merely a defensive move to diversify and /or lock in profits made.
Yup, besides that a lot of fellas here made even more Bitcoin by trading alts, so we are all good.
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April 30, 2018, 08:50:16 AM

I cash out at least 50% every rally which ensures both that I am able to enjoy life and that I have something to show if/when bitcoin finally crashes for good. It makes me much more confident about hodling the remaining portion.

how do you figure out when to cash out your 50%, exactly?  or how much to HODL in preparation for any rally?

For example, it seems that you had removed yourself from bitcoin during the crash from $1100 to $200, and you were reluctant to get back in.  Also, you were talking bear talk all the way up in this past price run, all the way up past $1,, you were talking bear talk, and then further you became even more bearish above $8k, so perhaps you did not have any bitcoins remaining that you could cash out, even above $1k or even above $7k...

Are you sharing a formula that others could actually use, or are you just making up some random non-specific and bearsicle practice that attempts to get HODLers to sell more?  

I had actually theorized that I would sell up to 50% of my HODLings at one time or another when the price was going up, especially if I were to sense that BTC prices were reaching a blow-off top.... however, I am glad that I did not follow such a practice, and really, I remain unclear about when to determine a blow off top, and in that regard, selling less than 20% of my stash incrementally on the way up has given me a whole hell of a lot of fiat to play with, so I cannot imagine selling more, or figuring out what else to invest in (besides bitcoin), if I were to invest.
After every major rally or "bubble" I cash out 50-70% of whatever total profit I made from holding and trading so I can leave the market and take a break before the next one. I have been around for 3 of these events. Since I do lots of trading (mostly altcoins) during the rally, this amount actually ends up just being trading profit and not my principal (in btcs).  The time I perform the cashout is when the rally is clearly over and most of the volatility from the resultant crash has gone away so that sticking around to daytrade becomes a waste of time. Usually btc is hovering around its median value or in some kind of dead cat bounce at that point. I know I took a lot out in 2014 as you said but I have never been all the way out. There has always been at least 25% remaining. In 2017 during the rally I broke my rules and kept cashing out early before the rally was over. I dont have an explanation for this that fits in my model. However I made all of this back times 3 trading altcoins (some with leverage) and then did the cashout again in Feb-Mar... At this point the rally was clearly over, I was trusting exchanges with way too much money, and cashing out was mandatory for tax purposes.
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April 30, 2018, 10:21:45 AM

Tera what would you use as an indicator to renter the market?  Or do you stay cashed out and rely on trading the remainder?
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April 30, 2018, 10:33:51 AM

Tera what would you use as an indicator to renter the market?  Or do you stay cashed out and rely on trading the remainder?
If I was to re-enter, I would re-enter when I see the train is clearly leaving the station (I dont need to pick the very bottom). In 2013 I reentered at $140 after the Silk Road bounce. In 2016 I didnt reenter because I had spent all the money I had cashed out in 2014 already. 0 Will I reenter anything I cashed out now? I'm not sure. Im already pretty satisfied with what I've left in already. I no longer need to be all in, plus there will probably be trades to make.

Altcoin trading and wierd miraculous 2 hour blocks of daytrading has saved my ass and kept me in the game all this time. I'm not sure how well my strategies will work for a conservative btc/usd investor without an x factor. But occasionally taking some money off the table is always a good idea.
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April 30, 2018, 10:41:36 AM

Anyone who bought Bitcoin before 2017 could probably have sold 10% recently to reduce their net exposure to zero.

After this the % of portfolio it represents is a little less of a problem, stress-wise - and it's merely a defensive move to diversify and /or lock in profits made.
Yup, besides that a lot of fellas here made even more Bitcoin by trading alts, so we are all good.

Indeed, I am guilty of alt trading, too.  I guess I was lucky in those I picked, but it made far more for me than Bitcoin itself did trading alts, although the profit was cashed out into BTC as well as fiat.  I still have far more in USD value terms in alts than in actual BTC in my crypto assets, but it's purely because alts are more volatile and ultimately simple to convert into the one coin that rules them all.
HairyMaclairy
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April 30, 2018, 10:44:21 AM

TIL that HTML + CSS is Turing complete

https://lemire.me/blog/2011/03/08/breaking-news-htmlcss-is-turing-complete/

Who wants to build an ETH killer in HTML / CSS with me?
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