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Question: Next Bubble Top (resulting in a new ATH):
Will never reach a new ATH - 7 (7.4%)
$20,000-$49,999 - 20 (21.3%)
$50,000-$99,999 - 23 (24.5%)
$100,000-$149,999 - 20 (21.3%)
$150,000-$199,999 - 7 (7.4%)
$200,000-$249,999 - 5 (5.3%)
$250,000-$299,999 - 1 (1.1%)
$300,000-$350,000 - 1 (1.1%)
>$350,000 - 10 (10.6%)
Total Voters: 94

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21501735 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (138 posts by 32 users deleted.)
MrFreeRoMan
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May 12, 2019, 05:53:36 PM

Quote

Back to the drawing board. Needs moar random circles and lines.

Who’s Behind The Mysterious Beef Crop Circle?  Grin
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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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May 12, 2019, 06:02:10 PM

On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k Cheesy

25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.  

There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price.  Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.

I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.

Whoaza, Majormax.

Turning into a BIGGER bull than me.   hahahahaha
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May 12, 2019, 06:03:04 PM

Quote

Quote
I believe manipulation is in full effect currently as these exchanges are trying to cover their butts to liquidate leveraged shorts that have been stacking. As a result this will extend the length of our current bear market, cause a much faster and harder drop and possibly take us to lows lower than previously expected by even the most bearish of bears. Sleep tight! Smiley


Looking at a low later this year of sub 2k ?

Low probability IMV .
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When over $9000?


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May 12, 2019, 06:05:17 PM

Low probability IMV .

"Probability"? Thanks for reminding:

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:



Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG? Grin

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well, let's just hope that it does come true! Smiley

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?
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May 12, 2019, 06:10:27 PM
Last edit: May 12, 2019, 08:00:46 PM by Majormax

On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k Cheesy

25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.  

There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price.  Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.

I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.

Whoaza, Majormax.

Turning into a BIGGER bull than me.   hahahahaha

I am not turning into anything.  Have always been exactly the same in my views. There is still a possibilty of a sub 2k low this year (see above), but I would put it at maybe 10% now.


I  believed the bull was over, and we had entered a bear market when I posted in Jan 2018 , and I now believe that the balance of probabilities is that bear market is ending.

As I said back in Feb 2018, a Bear low of 2k to 3k would seem about right.

edit : but I trust you will put me right if you believe I'm changing !
Gyrsur
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May 12, 2019, 06:19:08 PM
Last edit: May 12, 2019, 06:31:24 PM by Gyrsur

I also stopped by the Magical Crypto Conference on 18th st. between 6th and 7th avenue.
Same thing, you either had a badge or not.
Apparently, it was lunch time for most of them as they were waiting in line in front of a food truck vendor.
I'm not familiar with any of them so if you recognize any of these guys, please share.
I know some big names were present :
https://www.magicalcryptoconference.com/

now live Luke (SmallBlocker) Dashjr! Grin

https://www.magicalcryptoconference.com/livestream
JayJuanGee
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May 12, 2019, 06:29:19 PM
Merited by Raja_MBZ (1), MrFreeRoMan (1)

Low probability IMV .

"Probability"? Thanks for reminding:

A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.

Yes.  The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.

So far so good:



Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable.  You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess.  Do you find that valuable in how you live your life?  I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.

What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG? Grin

NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Well, let's just hope that it does come true! Smiley

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?

Hahahahaha!!!!

You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....   Wink

Hopefully, you are not trying to convert me into a kind of failed sorcerer because I never claim to know shit - except that I am frequently attacking and criticizing folks (moreso bears than bulls) who attempt to assign way too much certainty to any price events.... and it does not make them any more correct in their initial prediction, merely because they happened to guess correctly.

So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again. 

The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...

Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels.  So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena.    So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area. 

Those are my tentative and conservative assignments of probability, and I deny any soothsayer qualities, while admit to feel it is a kind of duty of mine to bash those who proclaim soothsayer qualities, even though I am inclined to think that currently, the odds for UP seem to be greater than odds for down, and it would be quite a dramatic change of events (and maybe even categorized as a manipulated bull trap) to even get down to below $3,900 - which would be a greater than 51% price correction (from our current local top of $7585).
JSRAW
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May 12, 2019, 06:30:12 PM

https://www.rockefellercenter.com/blog/2019/04/25/frieze-sculpture-rock/

Kenzawak this can help you out.
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May 12, 2019, 06:35:54 PM
Merited by Majormax (1)

On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k Cheesy

25-30% from 7400 is around 5000.  

There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price.  Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level.

I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300.

Whoaza, Majormax.

Turning into a BIGGER bull than me.   hahahahaha

I am not turning into anything.  


When in doubt, deny.

Have always been exactly the same in my views. There is still a possibilty of a sub 2k low this year (see above), but I would put it at maybe 10% now.

Fair enough.  I would put sub $2k as a bit less than 10%, but who knows, we would have a lot of support levels to break before that outline would once again become feasible, including breaking our current $3,122 low for this corrective cycle.


I  believed the bull was over, and we had entered a bear market when I posted in Jan 2018 , and I now believe that the balance of probabilities is that bear market is ending.

I think that we concur that the bear market has likely ended.

As I said back in Feb 2018, a Bear low of 2k to 3k would seem about right.

I stand by my statement, too, and I had asserted that you had predicted too early.... even though you ended up being correct... so nothing wrong with either of that. 

We are at least seeming to agree, currently, that signs of UP are looking much better now than they had been, in any event.
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May 12, 2019, 06:36:39 PM


I knew the name.  Wink

I just thought it was cool that it's called "Behind the Walls".

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May 12, 2019, 06:44:58 PM

Helo $7k Shocked

Welcome back
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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May 12, 2019, 06:46:24 PM

happy mothers day  Cheesy
happy your mother if you want happy Wink
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May 12, 2019, 06:54:00 PM

happy mothers day  Cheesy
happy your mother if you want happy Wink
And if you do not have Mom?  Cry
How can I be happy?
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May 12, 2019, 06:58:23 PM

Hahaha that’s about correct.

They make it really easy to use leverage on longing or shorting so that makes it appealing.  But it is a home of deep fuckery and the volume and order books are completely fake and their in-house trading team is front running trades.  Hard work to consistently make a profit there.  
... unless you stay under the radar with small trades.

And only use pre-set limit orders - never market orders or market stops...
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May 12, 2019, 07:02:07 PM

On my way I made a few stops, the first one being on 47th st, between 6th and 5th avenue, where there are many gold exchanges.
About half of them accept Bitcoin.
No kidding. The shop up in Boston still sends me christmas cards for the watches I bought for $1000 (1 BTC) I think he sold at 16k.

But yeah, if you want to blow bitcoin a coin shop is one place to do it.
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May 12, 2019, 07:03:27 PM

t
i
m
b
e
r
r
r
7k  Kiss weeeeeeee
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May 12, 2019, 07:05:52 PM

Yeah, 7050. I'm so disappointed... :-)

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May 12, 2019, 07:08:55 PM

Nouriel Roubini.
Poor sad fuck. I literally hate him.

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May 12, 2019, 07:13:17 PM
Last edit: May 12, 2019, 07:30:31 PM by Raja_MBZ

Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?

Hahahahaha!!!!

You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....   Wink


Nah, not at this stage. I'll surely be in one "after" (and iff before testing $3900 again) we break into a new ATH!

So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again. 

The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...

Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels.  So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena.    So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area. 

Honestly, I'm thinking more about the test of $5800 support right now, as it comes way before $4200. Don't forget, we never tested the "major level" of $3000 again after breaking it in 2017 bull run; I know that we can't compare the current mini-run to the last bull run just about yet, as the overall momentum and situation of that run is incomparable to the current run, but still, never forget, it's bitcoin and sh!t can happen any day.

P.S. take my last sMerit!



Let's worry (a bit) about this gap right now:



CME bitcoin futures open today Sunday 17:00 CT.
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May 12, 2019, 07:29:04 PM
Last edit: May 13, 2019, 02:15:16 PM by asu
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

​​Cryptos are in the middle of rally, excitement and wariness are in the air

As cryptocurrencies are in the middle of a rally these days, the market is waiting excitedly (or warily) on whether or not it will continue and how far it will go.



https://twitter.com/phillipnunnuk/status/1127311488870420482

https://telegra.ph/Cryptos-are-in-the-middle-of-rally-excitement-and-wariness-are-in-the-air-05-12
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