Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

This dump was expected. Let's see if it extends further or not.

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Oh wow! That number is extremely close to my overall portfolio worth. We've got some nice mathematicians in this thread, I wasn't aware of that!

Honestly, ADA played a big role in getting me to that number; if ADA hadn't pumped as it did, I'd have been struggling at ...

kidding aside...that's a historical record as long as bitcointalk lives, tread carefully.
This could be worth, say, $6.8-68 mil sometime in the future, give or take.

[JayJuanGee]

No need to worry.

BTCgonna do what BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....

Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC.   Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip.  The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.

I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Yes.  That is the idea.   A step in the right direction.  Usually, I would spread out the buys a little more incrementally. 

I also understand the idea of FOMO buying back - because I have done that kind of thing on a number of occasions. 

I already tend to engage in a BTC buy back practice/strategy that tends to involve buying back way too much BTC and way too early.    In that regard, in the December 2017 bull run, I sold small amounts of BTC all the way up to $19,500 or something like that.  And, I began buying back the BTC that I sold (and acquiring more BTC, too) at about $19k, so I bought back BTC all the way down to $3,200-ish.... So it is NOT like I am making any kind of killing with the way that I buy back BTC, based on my ongoing willingness to buy back BTC and to consider that I am profiting because I am accumulating more BTC than I had previously and without injecting more funds.   

Let's take your example. of selling in the ball park of 5% of your stash at $7,400.    Since you stated that you fear going down to $5,800, you could have structured your BTC buy backs to go all the way down to $5,800 or some price in that ball park.  For example, you could have divided the proceeds up into 10 parts, and set your BTC buy back orders of .5% every $100 (between $6,800 and $5,800), or some other variation of that.  I understand that your buying back all of it at $6,800 was a bit extreme, even though it was a profitable transaction, yet your "FOMO buy back" did not end up insuring you for the $5,800 price that you are likely continuing to fear.

I am not really saying that you need to do anything exactly right now, and personally, I rarely ever sell more than .5% of my BTC holdings at any one time, and even selling that much, at once makes me nervous.  Like I mentioned in my earlier post, it took a movement of more than $3k (80%) from $4,200 to $7585 to cause me to sell a bit more than 2% of my BTC holdings... (and that was more than 15 sales orders.. and I think that my highest sell was at $7,350-ish.. - by the way, I don't set either my buy orders or my sell orders at exact round numbers).

[El duderino_]

And into my HODLshuttle, curious where we @tomorrow and how the coming week, weeks wil look like!

Also members, watchers of the WALL do remember

The next 24-weeks are Extremely CRITICAL

[JayJuanGee]

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Whether accurate or not, great job investigating and showing where there might be holes in opsec choices that members make here.

[Majormax]

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

[infofront]

Welp, we closed above $7,200 yesterday, so we all lost. But then again, we all won.
...except r0ach

[El duderino_]

Welp, we closed above $7,200 yesterday, so we all lost. But then again, we all won.
...except r0ach

You’re so dead wrong!!!!!!



r0ach was very happy with his selling @ 500-700$ it was Some kind of strange victory, I Will not understand but cheers to the guy.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator
^
My brother, the POLL is getting better by the week again hopefully we keep crushing the higher POLL levels

[El duderino_]

Me @the moment a 1%’er .....

Goodnight Wall of the Bulls!

[_javier_]

I was the first to vote in that option..

maybe i got too bullish... lol

[JayJuanGee]

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

How many times did I hear we didn't where gonna see 7xxx this year ........ trying to predict the price is just impossible as just wastin e of time trying

F***  20K could happen in 1-2-3 weeks if BTC want it to be so!!!

Closing in to HODLsleep

Of course, anything can happen, including going to $20k within a few weeks, like you suggested.  Nonetheless, frequently, it is better to maintain some semblance of reality in your thinking about what kinds of scenarios are more likely.  Similar with dee roach..... On an ongoing basis, he is preparing for an Armageddon.. Of course, an Armageddon could happen, and roach would then be correct, but the likelihood is less than 1%, so therefore it is stupid to either put more than 1% preparations into scenarios that are less than 1% likely and/or to talk about them as if they were more than 1% likely.  In other words, we should be preparing for the more likely scenarios, and if the less likely scenario plays out to our advantage, then there is nothing wrong with that kind of extra icing on the cake, either.

So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?  Perhaps 10% at best?  More likely less than 3%, so why the fuck we gonna talk about $20k in 45 days as if it had some kind of meaningful chance of happening when it is a long shot that is in the less than 3% arena.

Regarding your point about no one knows what bitcoin is gonna do, so we may as well wish or plan for anything, that is just a lame assertion.  Even though we might not know what is going to happen, there are a large number of scenarios that are more probable than others, and sometimes less likely scenarios do end up playing out, especially in bitcoin, but merely because some less likely scenarios play out from time to time, that does not mean that we should just throw up our hands, stop trying to be reasonable in our predictions and assert that anything is possible, so therefore, I am going to wish for something that has a less than 3% chance and act as if its chances are greater in order to make that less likely outcome become a reality.

[Biodom]

Voted 8.5K-9K...too bullish, I know, I like to take unnecessary risks 

[Toxic2040]

[JayJuanGee]

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes. 

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.

[Searing]

Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes.  

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.

Depends. I'm in HODL mode for BTC and Crypto for the "Virtual Landscape" reasons. 21 million coins only and as of now I think it is 86% have been mined so far. Thus for

me it is long term HODL and the price gets to 20k or more when adoption and applications and such work their way along.

So does BTC have 'legs' as a structured speculation into someday an investment of note (when I pull the $$$ out, or some $$$) ... in the like we've seen in the last 10

years and hopefully into the next 10 years or not?

Price...hell it is the vision man..not the money! And as 'always' what I am doing above in HODL mode is 'Speculation' on my 'supposed vision'. It is in no way

an Investment, till such time I pull $$$ out.  Thi is still as close to being a Venture Capitalist Play as I'm ever likely to come accross. Best to not muddy

the waters on what color duck we are talking about here.

[Toxic2040]

#dyor
1h


D


W

#stronghands'19

[Stevenirving]

Been here long enough to know that corrections do happen and not always when you expect or can even see them coming. Sometimes right when you expect.

I have also been here long enough to know correction or not, the price will increase because at te end of the day bitcoin still is super undervalued and will be for a long time.

Im a perma-bull but something else great and can be super hard to learn is do not use bitcoin as a gambling device.
We need as many new people as often as we can get for sure but a lot of the horror stories should never happen.

Now like always is the time to buy but do your fuckin research people!
Look at the history of btc and how long down and up periods happened for before you start choosing the size of your investment.

[Torque]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

For the record, I think he meant first buy recommendation in the last 17 months.

But that guy is just another "Bitcoin Trading Expert" retard making predictions from his ass. Those idiots make more money gaining a following and scamming their followers with supposed "insider trading info" (usually for a fee) or racking up YT subscribers, than they do actually trading anything. He was calling for a fall to $1K many times.

[Toxic2040]

Supreme King Uberbear Tyler Jenks issues first Bitcoin buy recommendation in 17 months:



https://twitter.com/LucidInvestment/status/1127250971053129728

Hyperwave might have some merit (although not here and now). But this guy is clearly retarded if he recommends a first buy in 17 months, hyperwave or not.

For the record, I think he meant first buy recommendation in the last 17 months.

But that guy is just another "Bitcoin Trading Expert" retard making predictions from his ass. Those idiots make more money gaining a following and scamming their followers with supposed "insider trading info" (usually for a fee) or racking up YT subscribers, than they do actually trading anything. He was calling for a fall to $1K many times.

re: hyperwaves

Deploying phase one.

That is all.

W

[realr0ach]

I believe manipulation is in full effect currently as these exchanges are trying to cover their butts to liquidate leveraged shorts that have been stacking. As a result this will extend the length of our current bear market, cause a much faster and harder drop and possibly take us to lows lower than previously expected by even the most bearish of bears. Sleep tight!

The sucker's rally scenario looks plausible simply due to the fact there's NOBODY in the general public looking to buy or can afford to buy imaginary timestamps for $7000 nowadays, so who the hell is the greater fool supposed to be? All the greater fools like JayJuanGee and Trollgoossens are already all-in.  Bitcoin is a dollar derivative and the entire world is collapsing in poverty except people like Jeff Bezos that own everything.  So unless Jeff Bezos decides to be the greater fool and baghold a bunch of imaginary, valueless shitcoins, or Bernanke helicopter money is immediately released tomorrow, then what the fuck?