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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 28 (19%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.7%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.2%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.2%)
Total Voters: 147

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21289143 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
Biodom
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May 12, 2019, 10:31:26 PM

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

How many times did I hear we didn't where gonna see 7xxx this year ........ trying to predict the price is just impossible as just wastin e of time trying Smiley

F***  20K could happen in 1-2-3 weeks if BTC want it to be so!!! Cheesy

Closing in to HODLsleep


It's impossible, but then... it happens.
IDK.. if we are mini-bubbling here, then we could finish at around 10K, then down to 7k or even 6K (within 2-3 mo), but then pop all the way to 25-34K a la 2013 "double-pop" style.
PS: funny, I posted this without looking and now I see that masterluc (in infofront's translation) said more or less the same.
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May 12, 2019, 10:34:28 PM

This dump was expected. Let's see if it extends further or not.

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Oh wow! That number is extremely close to my overall portfolio worth. We've got some nice mathematicians in this thread, I wasn't aware of that! Cheesy

Honestly, ADA played a big role in getting me to that number; if ADA hadn't pumped as it did, I'd have been struggling at ~3.75 BTC instead of ~6.5 BTC. I literally sold the exact top of ADA/BTC last month, after it went 2x. Now it's back to the spot from where it pumped; however, I'm no longer interested in getting a crazy bag of it anymore as IOHK failed yet again to release the Shelley testnet on time. Without Shelley (PoS) on mainnet, I'm quite sure that Coinbase won't be listing them either.
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May 12, 2019, 10:37:32 PM
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May 12, 2019, 10:38:40 PM

This dump was expected. Let's see if it extends further or not.

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Oh wow! That number is extremely close to my overall portfolio worth. We've got some nice mathematicians in this thread, I wasn't aware of that! Cheesy

Honestly, ADA played a big role in getting me to that number; if ADA hadn't pumped as it did, I'd have been struggling at ...

kidding aside...that's a historical record as long as bitcointalk lives, tread carefully.
This could be worth, say, $6.8-68 mil sometime in the future, give or take.
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May 12, 2019, 10:43:38 PM

No need to worry.

BTCgonna do what BTC does, and we seem to have enough cushion that any of us HODLers should not be worrying too much... and if we are worrying, we have a bit more profits that we could skim off in this $7k price range in order to prepare us for $5,800 or lower, just in case....

Let's say, for example, our total stash is only 5BTC.
  Let's say that we have been struggling for about the past two years to acquire BTC with every paycheck and upon every price dip.  The reality of the matter is that if we really fear going down to $5,800 or lower, we could shave off somewhere between .05 BTC and .25BTC (that is between 1% and 5%) to prepare our BTC portfolio for such eventuality... personally, I would only play with the smaller amounts, but I understand that some guys (and gal) might be willing to risk a higher amount in order to prepare for down... but we should know that we are preparing for both down and up.. accordingly, we have to be able to tweak our holdings, if we are feeling uncomfortable in order to cause more comfort.

I am not always comfortable, but I have sold a bit more than 2% of my BTC portfolio with the price rise from $4,200 to $7,585... Whether I am able to buy those BTC back or not, I remain somewhat neutral in my feelings.... therefore if the price goes down, I will use some of those proceeds to buy back the BTC that I sold, yet if the BTC price does not go down, I am o.k. with that outcome too... because over 96% of my BTC to fiat value remains in BTC...
Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Yes.  That is the idea.   A step in the right direction.  Usually, I would spread out the buys a little more incrementally. 

I also understand the idea of FOMO buying back - because I have done that kind of thing on a number of occasions. 

I already tend to engage in a BTC buy back practice/strategy that tends to involve buying back way too much BTC and way too early.    In that regard, in the December 2017 bull run, I sold small amounts of BTC all the way up to $19,500 or something like that.  And, I began buying back the BTC that I sold (and acquiring more BTC, too) at about $19k, so I bought back BTC all the way down to $3,200-ish.... So it is NOT like I am making any kind of killing with the way that I buy back BTC, based on my ongoing willingness to buy back BTC and to consider that I am profiting because I am accumulating more BTC than I had previously and without injecting more funds.   

Let's take your example. of selling in the ball park of 5% of your stash at $7,400.    Since you stated that you fear going down to $5,800, you could have structured your BTC buy backs to go all the way down to $5,800 or some price in that ball park.  For example, you could have divided the proceeds up into 10 parts, and set your BTC buy back orders of .5% every $100 (between $6,800 and $5,800), or some other variation of that.  I understand that your buying back all of it at $6,800 was a bit extreme, even though it was a profitable transaction, yet your "FOMO buy back" did not end up insuring you for the $5,800 price that you are likely continuing to fear.

I am not really saying that you need to do anything exactly right now, and personally, I rarely ever sell more than .5% of my BTC holdings at any one time, and even selling that much, at once makes me nervous.  Like I mentioned in my earlier post, it took a movement of more than $3k (80%) from $4,200 to $7585 to cause me to sell a bit more than 2% of my BTC holdings... (and that was more than 15 sales orders.. and I think that my highest sell was at $7,350-ish.. - by the way, I don't set either my buy orders or my sell orders at exact round numbers).
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May 12, 2019, 10:46:48 PM

And into my HODLshuttle, curious where we @tomorrow and how the coming week, weeks wil look like!

Also members, watchers of the WALL do remember

The next 24-weeks are Extremely CRITICAL
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May 12, 2019, 10:48:22 PM

Win-win situation, I love it! I tried to do the same with a little part of my holdings (about 5%) yesterday, which is totally stuck in Binance for now. Sold at $7400 and thought the same thing, "if bitcoin goes down, I'll buy back from this USDC bag, if it doesn't go down, I still win with my remaining holdings". But then I bought back the BTC (FOMO'ed at the dump) at $6800 as I liked the little 0.03 BTC profit off that Binance bag.

Based on what you've just posted, your holdings must be around 6.8 BTC. Not a small amount, well done!

Keep HoDLing!

[...I just love playing with numbers...]

Whether accurate or not, great job investigating and showing where there might be holes in opsec choices that members make here.
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May 12, 2019, 10:51:14 PM


Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !
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May 12, 2019, 10:52:26 PM
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Welp, we closed above $7,200 yesterday, so we all lost. But then again, we all won. Smiley
...except r0ach



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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 12, 2019, 11:00:32 PM

Welp, we closed above $7,200 yesterday, so we all lost. But then again, we all won. Smiley
...except r0ach





You’re so dead wrong!!!!!!



r0ach was very happy with his selling @ 500-700$ it was Some kind of strange victory, I Will not understand but cheers to the guy.
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May 12, 2019, 11:03:15 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
^
My brother, the POLL is getting better by the week again hopefully we keep crushing the higher POLL levels Cheesy
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BTFD, on to 15K a coin !!!!


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May 12, 2019, 11:04:21 PM

Me @the moment a 1%’er .....

Goodnight Wall of the Bulls!
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May 12, 2019, 11:05:20 PM

I was the first to vote in that option..

maybe i got too bullish... lol
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May 12, 2019, 11:05:23 PM

Agree with you there JJG, no $20,000 breach until at least 12 months, probably 18 months. Moon is in sight though & we’ll get there.

How many times did I hear we didn't where gonna see 7xxx this year ........ trying to predict the price is just impossible as just wastin e of time trying Smiley

F***  20K could happen in 1-2-3 weeks if BTC want it to be so!!! Cheesy

Closing in to HODLsleep

Of course, anything can happen, including going to $20k within a few weeks, like you suggested.  Nonetheless, frequently, it is better to maintain some semblance of reality in your thinking about what kinds of scenarios are more likely.  Similar with dee roach..... On an ongoing basis, he is preparing for an Armageddon.. Of course, an Armageddon could happen, and roach would then be correct, but the likelihood is less than 1%, so therefore it is stupid to either put more than 1% preparations into scenarios that are less than 1% likely and/or to talk about them as if they were more than 1% likely.  In other words, we should be preparing for the more likely scenarios, and if the less likely scenario plays out to our advantage, then there is nothing wrong with that kind of extra icing on the cake, either.

So, yeah, what are the odds of $20k in 45 days?  Perhaps 10% at best?  More likely less than 3%, so why the fuck we gonna talk about $20k in 45 days as if it had some kind of meaningful chance of happening when it is a long shot that is in the less than 3% arena.

Regarding your point about no one knows what bitcoin is gonna do, so we may as well wish or plan for anything, that is just a lame assertion.  Even though we might not know what is going to happen, there are a large number of scenarios that are more probable than others, and sometimes less likely scenarios do end up playing out, especially in bitcoin, but merely because some less likely scenarios play out from time to time, that does not mean that we should just throw up our hands, stop trying to be reasonable in our predictions and assert that anything is possible, so therefore, I am going to wish for something that has a less than 3% chance and act as if its chances are greater in order to make that less likely outcome become a reality.
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May 12, 2019, 11:10:00 PM

Voted 8.5K-9K...too bullish, I know, I like to take unnecessary risks  Wink
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May 12, 2019, 11:19:23 PM


Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes. 

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.
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May 12, 2019, 11:36:38 PM


Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days....   More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.

I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.

This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought.

Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small.

I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy !

I do understand both the pervasiveness of a kind of gambling mentality, and also people tend to both think and to talk in terms of absolutes.  

So I cannot really fault anyone for having those kinds of tendencies, but when we are speculating in threads like this one, we should be attempting to learn about both what is more probable and less probable, and also how to express  our ideas in terms of more realistic scenarios while also letting people know if you really believe some kinds of events are probable or you are living in a fantasy world - even if we do not want to come off as too nerdy, there are still ways to qualify BTC price speculations in order that you are not spouting out too many BTC price scenarios that are just "out there" in fantasy landia.

Depends. I'm in HODL mode for BTC and Crypto for the "Virtual Landscape" reasons. 21 million coins only and as of now I think it is 86% have been mined so far. Thus for

me it is long term HODL and the price gets to 20k or more when adoption and applications and such work their way along.

So does BTC have 'legs' as a structured speculation into someday an investment of note (when I pull the $$$ out, or some $$$) ... in the like we've seen in the last 10

years and hopefully into the next 10 years or not?

Price...hell it is the vision man..not the money! And as 'always' what I am doing above in HODL mode is 'Speculation' on my 'supposed vision'. It is in no way

an Investment, till such time I pull $$$ out.  Thi is still as close to being a Venture Capitalist Play as I'm ever likely to come accross. Best to not muddy

the waters on what color duck we are talking about here.
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May 12, 2019, 11:56:10 PM
Last edit: May 13, 2019, 12:23:49 AM by Toxic2040
Merited by bones261 (2)



#dyor
1h


D


W

#stronghands'19
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May 13, 2019, 12:26:55 AM
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Been here long enough to know that corrections do happen and not always when you expect or can even see them coming. Sometimes right when you expect.

I have also been here long enough to know correction or not, the price will increase because at te end of the day bitcoin still is super undervalued and will be for a long time.

Im a perma-bull but something else great and can be super hard to learn is do not use bitcoin as a gambling device.
We need as many new people as often as we can get for sure but a lot of the horror stories should never happen.

Now like always is the time to buy but do your fuckin research people!
Look at the history of btc and how long down and up periods happened for before you start choosing the size of your investment.
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