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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21580265 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
Toxic2040
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May 30, 2019, 08:37:31 PM

  But all the alts,  surely like the dotcom bubble vast numbers of the alt coins need to die.   It's a world of shit with a few diamonds.  And no gaurantees what coins will survie,  im sure there needs to be a mass cull in the next few years.  

Yeah right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

A lot of us BTC hodlers wish that a lot of the altcoins will die, and many of us, just like you, recognize that almost all of them are overinflated and scams, but if you are betting your BTC stash on some kind of rationality or some kind of purging of shit that "must happen" then you are failing/refusing to accept a decent amount of the irrational reality of the world in which we live.

In this regard, you may be completely logically correct, but you are ignoring actual momentum and other phenomena that affect BTC prices, beyond logic (and beyond simple one cause explanations).

I just refuse to see the simple path to 50k that everone else it seems to see as quite the easy ride.

Stop misconstruing.  No one is asserting that the path is going to be without corrections, including acknowledging that BTC prices could go down before up.
 

I honestly belive 2020 and the rest of 2019 will be the cull years. where countless coins are wiped out, and I honestly think it needs to happen.  

Sounds like a stretch, but fair enough.  That kind of prediction is not beyond reason, except for the part that such culling "needs to happen," which seems to place too high of a certainty on something that is likely further from certainty than you are making it out to be. 
 
Look at siacoin that i made so much profit on,  it acts as a decentrallised cloud server on the blockchain, pays people to store other peoples encrypted data with fail safes.  Inginious idea, but still sometihing like only 10 terabytes used,  when $150m is invested (or at least the market cap).  thats 5 x $50 2TB harddrives.

Who gives any shits?  We are talking about bitcoin, not your inability to focus... that causes you to buy shit coins (that may have happen to have been profitable for you).
 
If you're correct i will bow down, say sorry you were right,  

What would I have been right about?  I am not asserting anything, except for saying that you seem to be placing too much certainty into outcomes that you would like, which seems to be pretty obviously causing a decent amount of stress upon you.
 
Im not too proud to admit when im wrong.  

Well, you are going to be wrong when you make predictions.. Being wrong comes with the prediction-making territory.
 
But im convinced this pump is a scam, or at least an effort to avoid a long bear market.  I don't buy the "new money" argument.

Well, sure it is possible that this whole upwards price movement that broke above $4,200 on April 1 and has not really significantly corrected for any meaningful amount of time is a fake out or a bull trap...


Seems like a stretch of wishful thinking, and you surely are entitled to having your opinions and speculation about what is going on, even if such scenarios seem a bit far fetched, at least during our current BTC price dynamics - and maybe if BTC prices go below $5k, then I might come to give higher chances to your scenario, but it seems that even now, there is likely to be a decent amount of support between our current price of a bit above $8,400 and $5k.. so it will take a while to get below $5k, if that is where we are going.

is it just me or does it feel like several paragraphs are missing?

for the record

FO JJG
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May 30, 2019, 08:42:36 PM

Since 2017, I've been following these famous filbfilb charts;
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/W5wwj74c-Bitcoin-Long-Term-Trend-Analysis-A-near-term-clue-BLX-Update/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LGfs4PUa-Bitcoin-A-Long-Tern-Market-Analysis/

I don't remember where I got that one from, but this might be the better version of filbfilb's TA:


https://www.tradingview.com/script/xdPkShYr-Bitcoin-non-linear-regression-curve-REAL/
This was NOT drawn by hand. This was calculated based on btc prices from 2010 to 2018. More than 60 different equations were tested and refined and ranked. This one is the best.
just got all the price historical price action, normalized, ran through a series of tests to find the best curve that fits. Then, got the formula and created the script using it in pine script

Looks like $40k might be the next ATH, $50k at best. Care to take a look and tell me what you think? Is he too conservative? Or realistic?

LFC_Bitcoin
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May 30, 2019, 08:44:55 PM

We’re testing support at $8,500. Let’s see if it holds.
jojo69
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May 30, 2019, 08:52:03 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

.0028175 BTC confirmed

LFC is a man of his word
LFC_Bitcoin
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May 30, 2019, 08:56:12 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)

.0028175 BTC confirmed

LFC is a man of his word

I don’t say I’ll do something if I’m not going to. I’m a man of my word, you have to be on this place.
Enjoy Smiley

Edit - Also BTFD gentlemen!
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May 30, 2019, 09:02:29 PM

.0028175 BTC confirmed

LFC is a man of his word

Hah, forgot about that and checked LTC price! I can't read either. Smiley
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May 30, 2019, 09:07:41 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)

Wahay the lads. It was never in doubt. What a result. Jojo coming in from behind there with a scorcher. Nice follow through from LFC. Makes up for all today's (unrealised) losses.
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May 30, 2019, 09:17:46 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), ssmc2 (1)

Since 2017, I've been following these famous filbfilb charts;
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/W5wwj74c-Bitcoin-Long-Term-Trend-Analysis-A-near-term-clue-BLX-Update/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/LGfs4PUa-Bitcoin-A-Long-Tern-Market-Analysis/

I don't remember where I got that one from, but this might be the better version of filbfilb's TA:


https://www.tradingview.com/script/xdPkShYr-Bitcoin-non-linear-regression-curve-REAL/
This was NOT drawn by hand. This was calculated based on btc prices from 2010 to 2018. More than 60 different equations were tested and refined and ranked. This one is the best.
just got all the price historical price action, normalized, ran through a series of tests to find the best curve that fits. Then, got the formula and created the script using it in pine script

Looks like $40k might be the next ATH, $50k at best. Care to take a look and tell me what you think? Is he too conservative? Or realistic?





A couple of posts from the beginning of the year. Maybe a bit conservative...dunno.

Repost of a classic chart (source unknown):



Leading up to halving price starts to move. Maybe it's different this time.

Looks different..  It has hit the '3000 in October 2019' level way earlier than that chart shows.  So 2023 looks pessimistic, but we will find out in time.  I think the price will be significantly above where we are now by autumn this year.  No ATH, but higher by a good deal.

New ATH? Sometime between late 2020 and late 2021, if the relationship to the halving and the roughly four year cycle holds.  YMMV.

This is my take on that chart that infofront posted after some consideration. I think the next peak will be in the 2nd half of '21 in December. If this is any indication then we will have one week between now and mid-summer of fairly extreme volatility that will make a yearly ATL before trending upwards. Many assumptions and a fair amount of bias here so do your own research.
W

#stronghands


Ack..heading for $8.2k and the o.382 long fib.
W

#stronghands'19
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May 30, 2019, 09:17:49 PM

never a dull moment
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May 30, 2019, 09:18:34 PM

I'm switching to the 30-day graph  Grin
Still well above 1%/day, which I consider to be normal steady rise.
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May 30, 2019, 09:19:39 PM
Merited by gentlemand (1)



Damn a lot can happen during a movie Roll Eyes
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May 30, 2019, 09:21:40 PM

Hanging man detected on 24-hour after quite a while; this pattern has literally worked like ~75% of the times accurately for me in the past. I'm expecting a correction till at least ~$8200:





It seems like bitcoin will cross $9000 on Vegeta's scouter after a few weeks, not very soon.

#DYOR

Worked again, sweetly! Wink



OTOH, Vegeta requires a Senzu Bean!

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May 30, 2019, 09:22:42 PM

This could get ugly
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May 30, 2019, 09:24:35 PM

Hanging man detected on 24-hour after quite a while; this pattern has literally worked like ~75% of the times accurately for me in the past. I'm expecting a correction till at least ~$8200:





It seems like bitcoin will cross $9000 on Vegeta's scouter after a few weeks, not very soon.

#DYOR

Worked again, sweetly! Wink



OTOH, Vegeta requires a Senzu Bean!





Give him a senzu bean!!!! quick!!!!!!!!!!
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May 30, 2019, 09:27:04 PM

Longs are being squeezed, but if the spike was a bull trap I can't understand why it lasted only a few minutes....
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May 30, 2019, 09:28:56 PM

They got their 1,000 dollar down. Now back to the middle?
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May 30, 2019, 09:29:30 PM

hull breach on deck 80

we are venting plasma
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May 30, 2019, 09:29:45 PM

El duderino_
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May 30, 2019, 09:29:53 PM

butt-rekt day-tarding at the bitfinex casino and comes onto WO to cringe-whinge ... get a life, your next stop is a roach-motel shitcoin last-chance-salon exchange ... gambler's anonymous is a thing, you don't have to air your problem in a public forum, it's a mental health issue, keep it private. use roach as your dont-be-this-guy example

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May 30, 2019, 09:31:25 PM

This could get ugly

This is fine. Nobody likes to see a graph that is only going up and up and up. I'm actually glad it happened.

Hanging man detected on 24-hour after quite a while; this pattern has literally worked like ~75% of the times accurately for me in the past. I'm expecting a correction till at least ~$8200:





It seems like bitcoin will cross $9000 on Vegeta's scouter after a few weeks, not very soon.

#DYOR

Worked again, sweetly! Wink



OTOH, Vegeta requires a Senzu Bean!



Give him a senzu bean!!!! quick!!!!!!!!!!

He's refusing it. Lips sealed
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