Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

I think Plan B answered this paradox many times

In my thread Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity there are a few hints about this...

It is interesting that he admits that the model would break sometime in the next three cycles, yet it cannot be priced in, I agree.
I am a bit confused about numbers, as what you attributed to planB is 50K, followed by 400K, followed by a VERY large number that is probably meaningless.
However, lately I saw 100K, followed by 1000K. I think that he tweaked his model later on.
also, what is interesting is the fact that we always exceed theoretical value both going up and down during oscillations, so, I guess, it is entirely possible to go to, say, 150-160K on the upside and back down to 30K on the back slope of that "mountain" in 2022-2023.

[Wekkel]

I believe the ‘Masterluc’ scenario is also still in play?

[fillippone]

The halvening can't be priced in. If the halvening is priced in, is the next halvening priced in too? How about the next 25 halvenings? It's impossible to price in halvenings. The halvening is like a change in physics.

https://twitter.com/RedditBTC/status/1211697573658058759?s=20

I think Plan B answered this paradox many times

In my thread Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity there are a few hints about this...

It is interesting that he admits that the model would break sometime in the next three cycles, yet it cannot be priced in, I agree.
I am a bit confused about numbers, as what you attributed to planB is 50K, followed by 400K, followed by a VERY large number that is probably meaningless.
However, lately I saw 100K, followed by 1000K. I think that he tweaked his model later on.
also, what is interesting is the fact that we always exceed theoretical value both going up and down during oscillations, so, I guess, it is entirely possible to go to, say, 150-160K on the upside and back down to 30K on the back slope of that "mountain" in 2022-2023.

Yeah, he admits that having a bitcoin worth multi millions USD is meaningless: probably this means USD has broken as an unit of measure, losing too much value, transferring this function to bitcoin (if a bitcoin is 3 millions USD, how much is a l’iter of milk, btw?)

Yes, he tweaked the models and numbers a few times, so you might have seen slightly different numbers. Those you posted are not dramatically different. Keep in mind S2F don’t provide trading targets, but some model value around which market price can swing widely. Well, I might add the marked moved up from model 300%, but down only 50%: the model then can be considered underestimating the actual market price.

[Last of the V8s]

F@k me 2020 in 26 hours, who'd a thought?


sorry for poor quality, anyone got a better please?

[Biodom]

I believe the ‘Masterluc’ scenario is also still in play?

The one with broad strokes that predicted the surge to 13-14K following by decline to 6.5, then to 72K (by the tip of the arrowhead)?
Obviously, yes, of course, but I think that he might want to flesh it out for 2020-2021 a bit, although if we get to that tip, I would be perfectly happy.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

F@k me 2020 in 26 hours, who'd a thought?


sorry for poor quality, anyone got a better please?

Fucking Merit whore.

Happy New Year you glorious bastard.

[Last of the V8s]

Ah, 'tis a noble profession.

[Globb0]

Beggars coin talk

[xhomerx10]

[El duderino_]

Sooooooo sorry but I can’t figure out the meaning of this one 

Though it’s nice made ....

What is it I see BoB’s card and posts but but

[El duderino_]

I will shortly go into watching the Witcher after short watching into HODLsleep cause

Tomorrow I will wake up not to late, have a work out, enjoy the last day of 2019—-> eat and drink myself among friends right into 2020 I hope everyone will enjoy his last 2019 day and entrance into 2020

Cheers

[bitserve]

What kind of fuckery that is?  


Oh, and HAPPY BIRTHDAY RAJA!!

[El duderino_]

BTW


via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[Icygreen]

Ooo, Lala, fancy work there homie, have you just torched our secret admirer's art or BLB? That's not how you  play Pokemon, er, is it. Taking custom requests I hear

[jojo69]

wait

what the fuck?

[gentlemand]

wait

what the fuck?

Looks like a wank rag but he values it so much he squirts into the pot instead.

I'd be very honoured if I were Bob.

[jojo69]

BLB wank rag

must have WO accessory

[JayJuanGee]

What is ETH & LTC engines?

Dunno, rumors have it, that they're somewhat boosters/fuel tanks for the BTC rocket.
Here, something like this:



I think the 3rd one was something called Dash.

Wonder if I roll my eyes three times for that one?



Or this level of exacerbation is enough:

[STT]

Overall, you seem quite bearish on upside potentiality of bitcoin.

Yeah, right you believe that gold has some kind of significant ability to absorb distressed value merely because it has financial vehicles already vastly in place and developed, but in the end, you really believe that such grandpa coin (referring to gold) is really going to appreciate in value beyond perhaps a 2x or a 3x in the coming years, even in the best of scenarios?


 and the odds are decent too that we could also end up in a supra $150k territory in the same before the end of 2021 timeframe.

I would have to admit I've been way too pessimistic on alot of things over years especially in technology.  I used some of the first versions of Windows and realised around 1990 it would be increasingly significant and profitable because it was so usable to the ordinary person in whatever trade, enabling utility far past specialists or specific training; I want BTC to be just the same way.   I did recommend buying MSFT but I underestimated how great that growth might be personally or I'd profited instead of mostly just observing the transition, a relative did buy into a tech fund and gained well over 30 times their initial investment so at least someone was paying attention.   I have tried to pay regular attention to markets ever since because its such a massive part of modern economies.
   Similarly I was user of SETI@home and PGP at the beginning of the century, I think Seti relates for its distributed workload and PGP obviously was something new and disruptive  but I failed to recognise Bitcoin at first for its great potential to ordinary people in bringing them a significant change to their lives.     So again I was too pessimistic initially but now I do think Bitcoin can be useful across the world so long as its able to address ordinary people and give them utility unavailable elsewhere.  FIAT has become unreliable and volatility will be a bull market.  

I've always liked technology but however great BTC or any other innovations might be, it wont be replacing gold in world economies.   I think they are on separate paths, both are required and that will increase but I dont see blockchains as replacing everything only 1 choice among many.   Obviously we are going to see governments continue to favour power they can control, first they will try to replace failed FIAT standards with new FIAT and then finally they might be forced to back money with an actual asset as it once was and its most likely going to be gold or similar.  
  It might be once again I'm not being optimistic enough to see a greater switch to technology but I expect commodities to form the backing to world trade for as long as I'm around.   The digital information global economy does fit Bitcoin and gold is fairly useless for a large part of the world because its so difficult and costly to handle for the common person who is not rich.   I cannot see us going back to solid coin value in the main but I wont say that ceases, for a few maybe its best for them and/or their only option.

BTC at $150k in the next 24 months would involve disorderly markets, I wouldn't bet against it but it means some larger failure is occuring.  We dont get to see only sunshine, if theres a rainbow it'll have also involved a storm imo.
  I dont see the greater price changes occurring for BTC or any asset without similar movement in the world and many asset prices and especially commodities every country is a user of.   I think price changes in a market can be like pushing on string, it doesnt do what anybody wants or expects but I do hope BTC is a large part of ensuring competitive markets succeed where political fixed prices fail to serve capitalism.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=jim+rickards+10000+gold

The seemingly ridiculous price objective for gold is $10,000 an ounce, thats by Jim Rickards maths and some others.   I only form my opinions by judging what I read and what seems fair in open markets and I generally agree thats a feasible scenario.    I think its a reasonable target but the price doesnt matter, all that matters is effectiveness of the product to allow an honest working citizen to pay their bills from their wages and save reliably value they have earnt.    Capitalism must serve society or it has no purpose, we dont have capitalism we have a centralised system which is the opposite so whatever the FED is doing now is going to end in unreliability which is a betrayal of those who backed and paid for its existence.   Volcker passed away before Xmas sadly, if anyone remembers his tenure it was a hell of a long time ago both in time and distance policy has fallen.



BTC since December 18th low has been lower volume.  Its not closed below 7150 since, with the 50 day average converging and marking the top price on Sunday.  If it can keep the same low it might reattempt a break of the 50DMA.    Otherwise it needs to stay above 7000 to remain as positive ongoing.

[Biodom]

Overall, you seem quite bearish on upside potentiality of bitcoin.

Yeah, right you believe that gold has some kind of significant ability to absorb distressed value merely because it has financial vehicles already vastly in place and developed, but in the end, you really believe that such grandpa coin (referring to gold) is really going to appreciate in value beyond perhaps a 2x or a 3x in the coming years, even in the best of scenarios?


 and the odds are decent too that we could also end up in a supra $150k territory in the same before the end of 2021 timeframe.

I would have to admit I've been way too pessimistic on alot of things over years especially in technology.  I used some of the first versions of Windows and realised 1990 it would be increasingly significant and profitable because it was so usable to the ordinary person in whatever trade, enabling utility far past specialists or specific training; I want BTC to be just the same way.   I did recommend buying MSFT but I underestimated how great that growth might be personally or I'd profited instead of mostly just observing the transition, a relative did buy into a tech fund and gained well over 30 times their initial investment so at least someone was paying attention.   I have tried to pay regular attention to markets ever since because its such a massive part of modern economies.
   Similarly I was user of SETI@home and PGP at the beginning of the century, I think Seti relates for its distributed workload and PGP obviously was something new and disruptive  but I failed to recognise Bitcoin at first for its great potential to ordinary people in bringing them a significant change to their lives.     So again I was too pessimistic initially but now I do think Bitcoin can be useful across the world so long as its able to address ordinary people and give them utility unavailable elsewhere.  FIAT has become unreliable and volatility will be a bull market.  

I've always liked technology but however great BTC or any other innovations might be, it wont be replacing gold in world economies.   I think they are on separate paths, both are required and that will increase but I dont see blockchains as replacing everything only 1 choice among many.   Obviously we are going to see governments continue to favour power they can control, first they will try to replace failed FIAT standards with new FIAT and then finally they might be forced to back money with an actual asset as it once was and its most likely going to be gold or similar.  
  It might be once again I'm not being optimistic enough to see a greater switch to technology but I expect commodities to form the backing to world trade for as long as I'm around.   The digital information global economy does fit Bitcoin and gold is fairly useless for a large part of the world because its so difficult and costly to handle for the common person who is not rich.   I cannot see us going back to solid coin value in the main but I wont say that ceases, for a few maybe its best for them and/or their only option.

BTC at $150k in the next 24 months would involve disorderly markets, I wouldn't bet against it but it means some larger failure is occuring.  We dont get to see only sunshine, if theres a rainbow it'll have also involved a storm imo.
  I dont see the greater price changes occurring for BTC or any asset without similar movement in the world and many asset prices and especially commodities every country is a user of.   I think price changes in a market can be like pushing on string, it doesnt do what anybody wants or expects but I do hope BTC is a large part of ensuring competitive markets succeed where political fixed prices fail to serve capitalism.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=jim+rickards+10000+gold

The seemingly ridiculous price objective for gold is $10,000 an ounce, thats by Jim Rickards maths and some others.   I only form my opinions by judging what I read and what seems fair in open markets and I generally agree thats a feasible scenario.    I think its a reasonable target but the price doesnt matter, all that matters is effectiveness of the product to allow an honest working citizen to pay their bills from their wages and save reliably value they have earnt.    Capitalism must serve society or it has no purpose, we dont have capitalism we have a centralised system which is the opposite so whatever the FED is doing now is going to end in unreliability which is a betrayal of those who backed and paid for its existence.   Volcker passed away before Xmas sadly, if anyone remembers his tenure it was a hell of a long time ago both in time and distance policy has fallen.

Why would 7X ATH be a disorderly market?
Similarly, why 10K gold is something out of the ordinary when we had almost 2K before?
In 2000 gold was around $250 or so, then it went up about 8-fold in a decade or so, then corrected for a total of 35-38% during almost a decade.
PTB had printed so much fiat (tens of trillions) than any of the aforementioned numbers are not crazy.
BTC at 10mil/coin, now, this is crazy (for the next 30 years that is).