Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Paul Buitink @paulbuitink · 1m

Additional info: the 3 companies bidding on Gox are well-known in the #bitcoin industry. Hope the community can solve the Gox problem asap.

What gox problem? gox is perfectly fine as it is - the best it has been in years. Look how well prices are doing on bitstamp now.

 

[macsga]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-subpoena-japan-us/

The Mt. Gox maelstrom is starting to attract attention from law enforcement in Japan and the US.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.

The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed source, which revealed the federal subpoena was sent this month. Details are rather thin on the ground and at this point in time it remains unclear when the subpoena was sent, or what it is all about.

In any case, federal prosecutors don’t tend to waste their time in vain and the fact that the attorney’s office is declining to comment the matter is consistent with an ongoing investigation.

[ErisDiscordia]

The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:

1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.

wow, this is a pretty good description of the process, hat tip to you, sir.

...meanwhile the price is stealthily making its retraction?

[dreamspark]

Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??

[tailor]

According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.

If true, it'll be be interesting to see which came first: the shutdown or the subpoena?

[billington.mark]

According to the Wall Street Journal, Mt. Gox has been subpoenaed by the US Attorney’s office in New York. Additionally, a few thousand miles west, Japanese officials have confirmed that local authorities are looking into the matter, too.

If true, it'll be be interesting to see which came first: the shutdown or the subpoena?

Or both at the same time...

[Yololintian]

Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??

I absolutely would not, and I will make sure anyone I know does not either.

[slovenc]

Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.

[MelMan2002]

In any case - if Gox is bought by someone else and customer withdrawals are enabled then it will likely crash the Bitstamp market with all of the cheap btc coming out of Gox..

[ChrisML]

Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.

Get out when you can boy. Choo choo up up up 2 da moon and beyond is coming soonish.

[dreamspark]

In speculation terms the more this goes on the more it seems to me that the governments are involved.


Thats why he can't /won't say anything and why the funds are temporarily unavailable.

I mean if you get a subpoena that prevents you from moving any customer funds and carrying out withdrawals and also says that you can't communicate the reason for the restrictions how else could you react?

[TERA]

The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:

1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.

wow, this is a pretty good description of the process, hat tip to you, sir.

...meanwhile the price is stealthily making its retraction?

So far the retracement is not unusual. Remember that silk road consolidated an entire week or so before finally going into a full breakout.

Also, the difference between now and silk road is we were just in a bear market in the middle of final capitulation, while silk road was during an uptrend. Prices attempted to rally here with a lot of force but were opposed by the large bear market counterforces that existed before the gox crash.  This was a rather odd way to end a capitulation and there might be more work to do to buy out all the capitulation coins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.

Obligatory "I had a freind who shorted Bitcoin once, haven't heard from him since."

[ErisDiscordia]

So far the retracement is not unusual. Remember that silk road consolidated an entire week or so before finally going into a full breakout.

Also, the difference between now and silk road is we were just in a bear market in the middle of final capitulation, while silk road was during an uptrend. Prices attempted to rally here with a lot of force but were opposed by the large bear market counterforces that existed before the gox crash.  This was a rather odd way to end a capitulation and there might be more work to do to buy out all the capitulation coins.

Right, the context between these two events is different while they seem similar in how they unfolded.

I feel like a spring has been coiling beneath the weight of the GOXFUD Boulder and now that the boulder seems to be gone it has shot up. Quite fascinating to watch.

[thoughtfan]

Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.

I hope you lose - not because I wish you badly, in fact I wish you well - but because if it does as you predict you will likely consider yourself clever rather than lucky and as a consequence are more likely to make further ill-thought risky trades that may lose you a lot more money in the long run.

Good luck

[seldon]

Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??

If the company is well known and can win back trust (e.g. by implementing a proof-of-ownership for all funds) I'm sure many people would. Also MK would need to be driven away with a large stick first.

[oda.krell]

At the time of the SR closure, the absolutely *dominant* sentiment among the pundits in here was that it will greatly depress price. Anyone who said differently was shouted down. Took a few days, and that sentiment very clearly changed.

I think "the pundits here" mostly have no clue what they are talking about or they are just plain out lying. Most of the things I say here get shouted down. For instance, if you currently say that MtGox demise is important, then you will probably get shouted down by the majority

So, to translate it to the current day situation: yes, I compare the two events in the sense that, at face value, you might naively say "oh, it's going to keep price down for months to come".
In reality, it will probably throw price down for some days, maybe weeks. And then, gradually, it'll be seen differently, as extremely good news.

It's really hard to understand your point. You are telling me, that because of the people here didn't see the SR demise as unimportant, then MtGox demise is also unimportant? Well, I just don't see the logic in that.

Just a few of those reasons, just from the top of my head: (1) the formerly largest exchange was run amateurishly, and was punished accordingly. (2) cheap mtgox coins that would have otherwise flooded the market are now unavailable to arbitrage down the price. (3) Mtgox investors will look to "replace" their coins (not all of them, of course. But those who *do* want to replace them will have to buy them again.

Questions that pop into my head: (1) Are the other exchanges honest or will they repeat the history of gox? (2) How can I know which exchange is honest and which is just building confidence for final strike (3) Could bitcoin be just a tool for those exchange owners to scam the general public?

These are serios questions that will be left unanswered and therefor will create distrust and uncertainty. For instance, I myself, am not as comfortable holding fiat in stamp as I was couple of months ago.
The demise of SR only hurt the BTC drug market, while the demise of MtGox will hurt the integrity of the entire bitcoin market system.

I sometimes have a hard time getting across my point because of my convoluted writing style. Apologies for that.

Here's my point, ultra condensed: Mtgox shutdown (in whatever form it'll happen) *does* matter. No question about that. But the question is *how* it will matter on which time frame.

Short term, it certainly will depress price (and did so already, yesterday for example). But I caution anyone who believes to know with certainty that it will depress prices for a long time. There are several plausible interpretation scenarios that will make mtgox closure *positive* in the long run, just like we know think of the SR closure as (obviously) a good thing.

Note that I'm personally not *sure* if mtgox closure will be seen as positive in the long run, but I see the real possibility for it. The market will ultimately decide, and I just mention the possibility that, in a year from now, we'll talk again about mtgox and everyone will go "Well, d'uh, of course it was good news. The worst run exchange in the BTC ecoystem *finally* went down. That's what brought us to the new ATH of 6000."

[dreamspark]

Serious question: Would anyone use "GOX" if it was bought by a reputable company and re branded allowing limited customer withdrawals but with a guarantee that finds are safe. Then if they implemented full transparancy of user funds??

If the company is well known and can win back trust (e.g. by implementing a proof-of-ownership for all funds) I'm sure many people would. Also MK would need to be driven away with a large stick first.

Well if the company is bought undoubtadley MK would be no where near it, I wouldn't be suprised if any new owners publicly slate him and what he's done ( if lost coins due to negligence turns out to be true).

With the massive customer base and amount of verified accounts it must be like a honey pot to many investors, one can only hope that someone is able to bail them out and an anouncement either way is made soon.

[mmitech]

in other Bitcoin related matter, Blockchain.info is being DDOS-ed and in there were 9 found blocks in only 20 minutes, how odd is that ?