Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

How much fiat was destined for btc that ended up getting gox paper btc. Now when funds are wired to an exchange to purchase btc they will be purchasing btc. Future fiat will have a greater impact as it's not traveling down a black hole.

there will also be a percentage of people who lost all of there stash but now fully buy into the bitcoin bull scenario. They must buy again

I agree that the market system will be of better quality without gox. But the market system hasn't restarted itself yet. The problem with gox is still without answers and solutions.

It was funny to me how many people translated gox just shutting it's doors as the solution and how everything is fixed now.

Step 1 is that all deposited bitcoins should be to per-account wallets with the public key known to the depositor.

Fiat? On your own there.

Edit: This does need some kind of cold-storage option though.

[Sitarow]

[JorgeStolfi]

From my "Predict the next Gox revelation here and win respect from fellow forum members" thread:

I'll go first: Mark has been manipulating trade data since at least last September.

He certainly had the incentive to do so. And we now know he is willing to do almost anything to save Gox, including mislead the public.

Feel free to join in! 

Didn't they replay a segment of the transaction log and price charts, several times, during the December crash --- so that their clients could not see the real depth of the plunge?  (I read that in a customer's blog at the time.)

[soullyG]

Hi im new here.
yesterday i put short on 520$. I still hope we will see retest at arround 500$.

Obligatory "I had a freind who shorted Bitcoin once, haven't heard from him since."

Reminds me of this clip from the show Freaks and Geeks

[oda.krell]

"Well, d'uh, of course it was good news. The worst run exchange in the BTC ecoystem *finally* went down. That's what brought us to the new ATH of 6000."

I don't strongly agree or disagree with anything your saying except this. gox being gone is not going to lead us to $6000 per bitcoin, or really any rise in price, lol. Not one person invests in bitcoin because gox is gone. gox probably wouldn't stop anyone from investing in bitcoin until now. Maybe some people will celebrate by buying a little for the good occasion, but it is no reason to make the price go up.

You completely misunderstood my point. Mtgox closing is not the "reason" for reaching (hypothetical) 6k coins. Nothing is ever the reason, besides market psychology (and fundamentals, as seen through the lens of market sentiment). The point is that, if we reach a new ATH, I'm sure people will look back at Mtgox closing and quoting it as "one of the reasons", just like they now quote "SR closed" or "the Chinese came in" as *the* reason, when in reality those are factors influencing the price, but never in such a straightforward and obvious way as it is made out to be in retrospect.

[Richy_T]

Well, thank the stars he's still in Japan.

 

Winter's cityside, crystal bits of snowflakes
All around my head and in the wind
I had no illusions that I'd ever find
A glimpse of summer's heatwaves in your eyes
You did what you did to me
Now it's history I see
Here's my comeback on the road again
Things will happen while they can
I will wait here for my man tonight
It's easy when you're big in Japan

When you're big in Japan, tonight
Big in Japan, be tight
Big in Japan, where the Eastern sea's so blue
Big in Japan, alright
Pay, then I'll sleep by your side
Things are easy when you're big in Japan
When you're big in Japan...

[fluidjax]

What I find amazing it the variation in opinion about Gox.
But, We have almost no facts and information!, everything is guess work based on a couple of lines of text here and there.
Everyone seems to be going down a mental trip, coming up with their own plausible outcome, but its simply fantasy.
Its interesting reading these ideas, and I should think one or two people may get it spot on, but that would be luck, not their Poirot style intellect.

[FierceRadish]

What I find amazing it the variation in opinion about Gox.
But, We have almost no facts and information!, everything is guess work based on a couple of lines of text here and there.
Everyone seems to be going down a mental trip, coming up with their own plausible outcome, but its simply fantasy.
Its interesting reading these ideas, and I should think one or two people may get it spot on, but that would be luck, not their Poirot style intellect.

Well, yes. But I think even from those few lines of text it's pretty obvious that something is seriously rotten in the state of Karpeles, Mark.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[joehal]

Gox will turn into the greatest exchange ever. The Phoenix like rebirth will reinforce the public perceptions about the resilience of the bitcoin.

Because it will turn into the closest thing to a truly decentralized exchange, controled by the public. And of course will probably be more trusted than all the exchanges

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=488483.0

[JorgeStolfi]

Thus, I would be very surprised if MtGOX gets rescued.

I wouldn't be. I made the argument here, although it's a simplistic one:

http://theblogchain.com/2014/02/26/mtgox-is-getting-rescued-by-other-bitcoin-businesses/

Thanks.

I have one nit about your document: you suggest that the company that would rescue MtGOX could buy coins from the other exchanges.  But the coins in the exchanges' wallets do not belong to the exchanges, they belong to their clients.  

In fact, my preferred explanation at the moment for how MtGOX "lost" all those coins is that they sold them off-market in order to play with the cash, confident that they coudl re-purchse them if and when needed; but then the BTC price jumped from 100$ to 800$  in november-december, and they could no longer do that.

So, I think that it would be too risky (if not criminal) for the exchanges to sell those coins to the Save-MtGOX company.  Ditto for any bitcoin investment funds.

Does this make sense?

[Davyd05]

What I find amazing it the variation in opinion about Gox.
But, We have almost no facts and information!, everything is guess work based on a couple of lines of text here and there.
Everyone seems to be going down a mental trip, coming up with their own plausible outcome, but its simply fantasy.
Its interesting reading these ideas, and I should think one or two people may get it spot on, but that would be luck, not their Poirot style intellect.

I mean we have possibly non-mtgox but not fake leaked documents that are so crude and shotty that it's left people asking the questions, how could you last this long and or be so bad at business management as to let 750k coins and accumulate 55 million in fiat liabilities.

It simply seems impossible, I can imagine shit went sideways but this is stick my head in the sand like and ostrich and wait for my neck to get cut off stupid.

ooo a lil more buying pressure returning to stamp

[kkaspar]

I sometimes have a hard time getting across my point because of my convoluted writing style. Apologies for that.

Here's my point, ultra condensed: Mtgox shutdown (in whatever form it'll happen) *does* matter. No question about that. But the question is *how* it will matter on which time frame.

Short term, it certainly will depress price (and did so already, yesterday for example). But I caution anyone who believes to know with certainty that it will depress prices for a long time. There are several plausible interpretation scenarios that will make mtgox closure *positive* in the long run, just like we know think of the SR closure as (obviously) a good thing.

Note that I'm personally not *sure* if mtgox closure will be seen as positive in the long run, but I see the real possibility for it. The market will ultimately decide, and I just mention the possibility that, in a year from now, we'll talk again about mtgox and everyone will go "Well, d'uh, of course it was good news. The worst run exchange in the BTC ecoystem *finally* went down. That's what brought us to the new ATH of 6000."

Easier to agree with you here. The important question is not yet answered, how will the fall of gox be played out. Will there be a bail-out where gox will be bought and the customers will get what they're owed, or will it just be a bankruptcy with all the money magically disappeared.
The first option isn't easy. It would be a noble act if someone invested so much, just to save the integrity of the market, but it does have it's risks. For instance, what stops another exchange from repeating what gox did and by that nullifying previous attempts to save the integrity of the market? Only solution that I can see, is some kind of an self-regulatory system that will separate trustworthy exchanges from the shadowy ones.
I agree, that right now you can't speculate the future, because there is no solid information to speculate the future on. Fall of gox could be a good way to show integrity and responsibility around bitcoin, but it could also make it lose all of it's existing positive halo.

[Pruden]

there were 9 found blocks in only 20 minutes, how odd is that ?

Since the probability distribution is exponential:

http://www.endmemo.com/statistics/exponential.php

Mean: 2 (2 blocks in 20 minutes, actually slightly greater)
Greater than: 9

A little more than 1%, which means this is expected to happen once every day on average.

[Richy_T]

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off.

Steep howso?

[Sitarow]

[Miz4r]

This would make for a somewhat more realistic bottom.  (though it still looks a little short to me overall)

This is what I think is gonna happen next:

[F-bernanke]

This is what i think:

[podyx]

solid

[dreamspark]

Jorge, what is illegal about an investor buying coins on other exchanges to inject into Gox?

 As long as were on the same page and realise that when we say buying off other exchanges we don't mean buying from exchanges cold storage and giving the money to them, we mean buying them at whatever market price from those exchanges clients with a regular account. What would be illegal with that ?

I also don't buy the liquidated them to play with the cash story. No one who believes in bitcoin (which he clearly did / does) would do that,  they all feel that the price is way under valued and its a life changing tech. Hence why he acquired so many coins and then wanted his own exchange. Why would he then bet against the price going up?

Also back at $100 there wasn't anywhere near the liquidity to sell all of those coins.