Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

What most of you seem to not understand is that one of the biggest results of this Gox fiasco is that many many coins are going into encrypted jump drives and paper wallets. They are not Beany Babies. They are Faberge eggs. There are going to get scarce. Really scarce.

I'm pulling most of my holdings off the exchanges. I should have done it long ago. You can figure out for yourself what this will do to the price.

[Davyd05]

Thus, I would be very surprised if MtGOX gets rescued.

I wouldn't be. I made the argument here, although it's a simplistic one:

http://theblogchain.com/2014/02/26/mtgox-is-getting-rescued-by-other-bitcoin-businesses/

Thanks.

I have one nit about your document: you suggest that the company that would rescue MtGOX could buy coins from the other exchanges.  But the coins in the exchanges' wallets do not belong to the exchanges, they belong to their clients.  

In fact, my preferred explanation at the moment for how MtGOX "lost" all those coins is that they sold them off-market in order to play with the cash, confident that they coudl re-purchse them if and when needed; but then the BTC price jumped from 100$ to 800$  in november-december, and they could no longer do that.

So, I think that it would be too risky (if not criminal) for the exchanges to sell those coins to the Save-MtGOX company.  Ditto for any bitcoin investment funds.

Does this make sense?

The best price would be buying coins not on the exchanges. Anybody with ideas that gox was buying their own customers coins on a crash to replenish holdings I guess doesn't believe in fraud, but I am sure the U.S and Japanese government will if they find such info.

[delphic]

My theory is that the keys to the 740K BTC were on a USB stick, and Mark accidentally dropped it in a frappacino.

[spin]

My theory is that the keys to the 740K BTC were on a USB stick, and Mark accidentally dropped it in a frappacino.

LOL

[kkaspar]

Step 1 is that all deposited bitcoins should be to per-account wallets with the public key known to the depositor.

Fiat? On your own there.

Edit: This does need some kind of cold-storage option though.

I think that the Step 1 you offered is a really good idea.
Only option that I have came up with to keep things honest around fiat is a self-regulatory information based system. The exchanges have to pass quarterly audits to show that all the fiat is there and it isn't being used for anything else that it is meant to. These audits will be voluntary of course, but those exchanges who refuse cooperation will be flagged untrustworthy in the wider field of information around bitcoin. This will cause a problem of neutrality, but I think that this can be overcome with proper methods.
I think that using information to promote some exchanges and warn people about other exchanges is the only realistic regulatory system that doesn't have to involve the state. And the good thing is that it also works globally, while state enforced regulations only work locally.

[fluidjax]

What most of you seem to not understand is that one of the biggest results of this Gox fiasco is that many many coins are going into encrypted jump drives and paper wallets. They are not Beany Babies. They are Faberge eggs. There are going to get scarce. Really scarce.

I'm pulling most of my holdings off the exchanges. I should have done it long ago. You can figure out for yourself what this will do to the price.

Thats sound plausible, until the exchanges are regulated and your coins are effectively insured, there will be a move towards only having traders with coins on exchanges. This will damage liquidity and increase volatility.

[dreamspark]

What most of you seem to not understand is that one of the biggest results of this Gox fiasco is that many many coins are going into encrypted jump drives and paper wallets. They are not Beany Babies. They are Faberge eggs. There are going to get scarce. Really scarce.

I'm pulling most of my holdings off the exchanges. I should have done it long ago. You can figure out for yourself what this will do to the price.

Got to agree with this, I know I started off with just a small % of my holdings on exchanges but as the price has gone up and Ive traded this has become a substantial figure. While this isn't a bad thing there has been occasions where I have sold more than I would of if I had had less on the exchanges.

I guess using your logic, which is fairly sound, supply is going to dry up. I think we will just see more transactions backwards and forwards from personal storage to exchanges but the chance for less panic selling is definately apparent.

[ChrisML]

[dreamspark]

So much win. New wall paper candidate haha

[fluidjax]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1yv26o/gox_horror_story_thread_how_much_did_you_lose/

disposabledealer comment suggest that MtGox have suspended a number of accounts for illegal activites. (SilkRoad) This could be why Mark doesn't current have access to many of the Bitcoins. There are being held by the US government pending some sort of resolution.
This is probably why Mark can't speak about what is going on.

[segeln]

. Bit of an unsatisfactory answer maybe, but "the next few 6h candles will decide how it'll resolve" is the best answer I think that can be given at the moment.

watch  Heiken Ashi and you see better the evolvement than with "normal" candlesticks

sorry I got only 4h chart

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, what is illegal about an investor buying coins on other exchanges to inject into Gox?

Of course it is OK to buy coins on other exchanges from the exchange's customers and withdrawing them.

What is not OK is buying a big lump of those coins in private from the exchange without the clients' knowledge. 

[lumierre]

What a coincidence. My bitcoin price analysis is similar.

[dreamspark]

Jorge, what is illegal about an investor buying coins on other exchanges to inject into Gox?

Of course it is OK to buy coins on other exchanges from the exchange's customers and withdrawing them.

What is not OK is buying a big lump of those coins in private from the exchange without the clients' knowledge. 

Agree but not likely to happen and I dont think thats what anyone was suggesting when they said investors can buy coins from other exchanges.

[fluidjax]

Jorge, what is illegal about an investor buying coins on other exchanges to inject into Gox?

Of course it is OK to buy coins on other exchanges from the exchange's customers and withdrawing them.

What is not OK is buying a big lump of those coins in private from the exchange without the clients' knowledge.  

Is  fractional reserve banking actually illegal, especially with Bitcoins?
Banks are quite happy to use it and screw us .

[kkaspar]

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off.

Steep howso?

The supply of new coins will slow down and become more expensive, while the user count is increasing. That deflationary part is good to attract investors with promises "buy now, and you will be 10000x richer soon", but it does stop bitcoin from becoming a practical currency. What a quality currency needs is price stability, that is just not possible with bitcoin.
Stable deflation rate, that would make a currency work, would be around 1% a year. Bitcoin is far from it.

[Odrec]

I've seen a lot of libertarians whining about MtGox but isn't no regulations what libertarians fight for??

Anyways, everyone of us knew what we were getting into. No use whining now. Thankfully I didn't have any money on MtGox.

[cbutters]

What kind of narcissistic invalid is Mark Karpeles? Why is he even issuing these press releases.... I really think he thinks he is God. Why the hell would anyone care if he was in Japan or not? Where is the money? Where is the transparency? Oh, thousands of people's life savings and substantial investments are "unavailable". And he basically posts a selfie saying "Hey guys don't worry... Mark Karpeles is in Japan."  

but don't worry.... Mark Karpeles is working hard for you...

What does he fancy himself? He acts like its all about him.

At least he finally admits there is an "issue" now. Previous statements have been so vague and he likes to paint himself as totally infallible.

"Oh, by the way, don't ask any questions..... "

DONT ASK ANY QUESTIONS?  IS THIS GUY MENTAL?

There was never a better time for people to be asking questions. A proper response for a company would be to at least provide an outlet for questions to be asked, a helpdesk of some kind, no matter how small the chance of resolution was... damage control mark.... Mark doesn't do this though because Mark doesn't make mistakes, Mark does everything right for the customer, Mark doesn't need to respond to people, Mark knows what is best for Bitcoin, Mark made bitcoin, Mark controls bitcoin, They would be nothing without Mark, Mark answers to nobody,Mark, Mark, Mark,Mark........

Someone get this guy to a therapist.

[Miz4r]

It's the steep deflationary nature of bitcoin that turns most people off.

Steep howso?

The supply of new coins will slow down and become more expensive, while the user count is increasing. That deflationary part is good to attract investors with promises "buy now, and you will be 10000x richer soon", but it does stop bitcoin from becoming a practical currency. What a quality currency needs is price stability, that is just not possible with bitcoin.
Stable deflation rate, that would make a currency work, would be around 1% a year. Bitcoin is far from it.

User count is going to stabilize at some point, and will become lower than the actual BTC inflation rate. I see no reason why that wouldn't lead to price stability (not in USD terms perhaps but that's because USD is actually not stable at all).

[Dr. LY]

Hope this is true. Buitink says investors trying to bail out gox.

Hearsay, but do we have anything better right now?

https://twitter.com/paulbuitink/status/438428157948219392