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September 19, 2020, 10:20:57 PM *
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Question: 9/19 Closing Price:
0 - 1 (1.7%)
<$10,000 - 3 (5.1%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 1 (1.7%)
$10,501-$11,000 - 11 (18.6%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 18 (30.5%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 8 (13.6%)
$12,001-$12,500 - 7 (11.9%)
$12,501-$13,000 - 2 (3.4%)
>$13,000 - 3 (5.1%)
>$20,000 - 5 (8.5%)
Total Voters: 59

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 22377577 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
nutildah
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March 14, 2020, 06:41:58 AM
Merited by 600watt (1), bitserve (1)

Perhaps you might even be able to figure out that 1 USD at time t (e.g. in the year 1995) is almost never the same as 1 USD at time s =/= t (e.g. today).

Yes, it is. 1 USD = 1 USD, always, every day since April 2, 1792.

Your example doesn't hold regardless of the presence of a central bank as it concerns the argument at hand.

 Roll Eyes

My example was serving to make what you were saying more logically palatable, and then you mangled it to make it once again illogical.

When bitserve said this:

It's just an equal sign with both *IDENTICAL* values at each side of the equal sign. That shouldn't be debatable.

he is _clearly_ talking about a reflexive property here, X = X. You are arguing against that, saying no, X doesn't equal X because X before is different than X now. While its value changes, the USD is not inherently different. It is always the same denomination of legal tender to be used in the U.S. for goods and services. The _value_ as measured against a basket of currencies or a gallon of milk or whatever is different -- that is a characteristic of X. You're just saying flat out X ≠ X, which is dumb.
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OutOfMemory
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March 14, 2020, 06:44:38 AM

Today is the first day in like 2 years my nocoiner friend mentioned BTC and that he'd like to buy because he heard "it dropped 50%"  Grin Bullish!  Cool

Wow. Most people of that ilk think either 'it's ded' or 'it'll go lower' and then buy 5 minutes before the peak several years later.

Your man sounds like he was born to it.

When i picked up the kids at school today (which is closing down for at least two weeks now) i heard other parents talk about investing in bitcoin, because the price sunk $1000 (...) "No, it's even down $2000! ...", "Then i'm gonna buy for sure now!" ... (and so on). I didn't join the talk, but what i really heard from it was:

"Bitcoin is low, i'm gonna catch the falling knife"
"Bitcoin is even lower, i'm finally buy the blood and become a coiner"

So i guess that BTC will tank even lower after the rise from $4.x cools off.
Many people gonna loose their newly invested money to the whales, at least to some good percentage.
I'll wait for it. I can still buy on the way up until about $6.5k if i'm totally wrong.
My final word (opinion): Bitcoin will go lower before the slow rise to next ATH. When i look at all the pumps after 04/2019, i'd say the bottom could be somewhere between $3 and $3.5k.


You sound a bit too bearish, out of memory.  After a quickie 63% correction, it is likely better to be betting on up rather than down.. although I know that you are not shorting.. but you are hesitating to buy, and I suppose that is not really bad.. it is just seeming a bit overly pessimistic.

Good morning!

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.
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March 14, 2020, 07:04:44 AM

But if I take my fiat and convert it to cash, I can use it as toilet paper. You can't do that with BTC.
I don't know what you think when you use the "convert" word here  Roll Eyes If you convert fiat into cash, I can also exchange BTC for cash, what is the difference? Can BTC still be used as toilet paper in a different way? Just kidding  Wink
I think that's called intrinsic value  Cheesy
No way, can't think of a better way to call it  Cheesy So what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? Can I call the terrible volatility the intrinsic value to bitcoin?
A historic ~49% range in a single 40-minute candle.
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March 14, 2020, 07:18:57 AM

But if I take my fiat and convert it to cash, I can use it as toilet paper. You can't do that with BTC.
I don't know what you think when you use the "convert" word here  Roll Eyes If you convert fiat into cash, I can also exchange BTC for cash, what is the difference? Can BTC still be used as toilet paper in a different way? Just kidding  Wink
I think that's called intrinsic value  Cheesy
No way, can't think of a better way to call it  Cheesy So what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? Can I call the terrible volatility the intrinsic value to bitcoin?
A historic ~49% range in a single 40-minute candle.
Not at all, Bitcoin is a mere 100 billion market cap today on it's journey to replace a irresponsible monetary policy.
Volatility is expected. There won't be as much volatility when BTC has a much larger market cap like gold. You're just early if you thought it should be stable.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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March 14, 2020, 08:23:57 AM
Merited by dbshck (4), LFC_Bitcoin (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

@Geovanydesiju10
Quick Reminder" No one holding #bitcoin  lost anything Example: If you had 0.01BTC Before this Market sell off Guess what: You still have 0.01BTC in your wallet You only loose if you anxiously try to convert BTC to worthless FIAT
https://twitter.com/geovanydejesu10/status/1238564266879471618?s=21

Some day I will buy a baseball bat and start punching everyone that repeats that same old shit about one BTC being still one BTC.

C'on, Bitcoin dumped, it fucking sucks... just accept it like a man and don't invent silly excuses that mean fucking nothing! Tongue

Look how the same idiots start going full party when Bitcoin moons... wasn't it already 1BTC = 1BTC? C'on....

I "lost" a shitton of paper profits. There's no need to sugarcoat it. All this will pass when Bitcoin really moons.

I surely feel good to have been able to ride this out, so far, and really I would prefer not to dig into fiat that is NOT supposed to be dedicated to BTC. 

It's one of those things that we cannot really know, and we have to try our best to our own comfort level to figure out a psychological and financial balance that works for us, including considering what are we going to do for extremes that we do not want to happen, and then those extremes end up happening.

Spouting out bullshit on this thread sometimes has consequences too, including if guys (and gal) are saying that they are 100% in but the price is in the $9ks or $10ks, and fuck, it is not going to feel very good if the price corrects 60% down from there in a relatively short period of time, and you thought that you should go 100% in because other members were saying that they were 100% in.

So, yeah, the more that you are in, the tougher it is to take any action. Also, some of the guys waiting on the sidelines with their fiat ended up in a real good opportunity place, as long as they were able to pull the trigger when the price dipped, and not pull the trigger too early.  Of course, I have never really been one of those guys, because I always have been a bit nervous about making sure that I am adequately prepared for UP, which means that more value is in bitcoin and more value, ends up losing its value when the BTC price drops more than 60% in a short period of time... so all the BTC that I bought on the way down, do not even add up to a fraction of the loss of value. 

I did a rough ballpark look at how much BTC I bought, and yeah, I increased my BTC stash between about 4-5% during that 60% drop... but just looking at the matter, we can see that the value dropped 60% so how can increasing the stash by 4-5% make up for that loss - except for when the BTC price goes back up (assuming that it does), then it is likely that those of us who play with this kind of incrementalism and attempt to increase our BTC stash will have slightly more BTC when the BTC price returns to $10k and above... and it all adds up and the volatile periods add up, so it could still take a while and several ups and downs to add 1-5% of actual more value to a stash.

Maybe I should be a little bit embarrassed about my own system, but I make a choice NOT to sell very much on the way up, so when the BTC price is going back and forth, I am NOT making any kind of killing, but I feel good about the whole matter at a level that I have thought about and chosen for myself and sometimes I will think about tweaking the amounts of the sales or the buys in one direction or another if I feel that either I am not stacking enough sats or that I am not comfortable with the amount that I am selling on the way up.. and there is a trade off that requires being willing to take more BTC off of the table if the BTC price runs in the upwards direction without correcting back down.
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March 14, 2020, 08:52:50 AM

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.


I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!

Icygreen
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March 14, 2020, 09:11:04 AM
Merited by Majormax (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.


I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!


Thanks for sharing, no shame really. I'm also similarly positioned using bitcoin as my 100% savings. The only difference is that I don't need the capital I've allocated for any reason in the short term (except in emergency). I have a somewhat reliable income stream I can reasonably live from.
If you'll entertain, its a great lesson really.  Is your investments in Bitcoin to help bitcoin evolve or for some other reason?
Other reasons get complicated very easily as I'm sure you are aware and as Bitcoin stands it's ground, it will claim the advantage over unaltruistic investments.
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March 14, 2020, 09:29:31 AM

Hey fam,

i hope everyone used the fuck up on bitmex to make loads of BTC - probaly the most profitable day in history for me.

100x with a discount of 650$ lol


I would sacrifice my first born for such an opportunity again Grin

What does that mean?

If you were playing with $1,000, then depending on your entry and your exit, you could have made up to $100,000-$1,000 = $99,000-$650?  which would mean if you were working with $1,000 as capital, you could have made $98,350?  Of course, if you were only betting $100, then you would have just been able to make $10,000-$100 = $9,900-$650= $9,250?

Something seems to be missing, in regards to your entries and exits and then in what circumstances you would actually be able to achieve 100x?


I think cryptix meant something like this
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March 14, 2020, 09:37:42 AM

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.


I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!



Not really capitulation, unless it represents a large proportion of your holding. It is a sensible move. Plenty of canny hodlers have had to sell small parts of their BTC at lows over the years. It is always better to make sure you have enough liquidity to be comfortable for a long wait.
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March 14, 2020, 10:05:59 AM
Last edit: March 14, 2020, 10:16:52 AM by Biro Bob

Yeah, i might sound too bearish because of the $3k - $3.5k range, but i will buy at higher prices too without much loss (or much less gain, if you want to see it that way).
I'm easy with holding out and waiting, in times of uncertainty i refuse to make moves, because this has brought negative results in the past, mostly.


I (shamed to admit it) capitulated at £3660 on Thursday night and liquidated 0.4 BTC for £1500. Sadly, I needed to make sure I had the money to pay a bill. I use BTC as my overall savings account with very little in my actual bank account other than general operating costs and some on exchanges to play with. It means I lost about 0.03 BTC / £150 in real terms. I had been buying bits and pieces during the crash  - then panicked and sold at a loss.

I am the master of capitulation. I did it at $280 and I’m sure I’ll do it again. This is a sign we can go up now!



Not really capitulation, unless it represents a large proportion of your holding. It is a sensible move. Plenty of canny hodlers have had to sell small parts of their BTC at lows over the years. It is always better to make sure you have enough liquidity to be comfortable for a long wait.

I have other long term investments and earn a salary, but BTC is my most liquid saving. Stupidly, I spent a ton of money in February renovating... and now the bills are due!

*edit* I call it capitulation because I broke every rule I believe in.... NEVER PANIC SELL!!! IF I PANIC AND WANNA SELL THAT MEANS BUY BUY BUY!
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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March 14, 2020, 10:16:40 AM

Guys look at the master races who dont use toilet paper at all but a so called bidet Wink

How do you get your arse dry afterwards? Do they have an arse dryer like a hot air hand dryer?

yes.

some also come with deodorizing filters, but with the ones ive encountered the filter always seems to be broken or defective.

so im told.
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THE NEXT 24 YEARS ARE CRITICAL🍄💊


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March 14, 2020, 10:21:13 AM
Merited by nutildah (2)

Bittrex to introduce new trading pair
BTC to TP


Will dump all my TP at the peak in 2 weeks
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March 14, 2020, 11:11:11 AM


https://twitter.com/wef/status/1238782011969548293

How does quarantine actually work?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-restrictions
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March 14, 2020, 11:15:40 AM

Perhaps you might even be able to figure out that 1 USD at time t (e.g. in the year 1995) is almost never the same as 1 USD at time s =/= t (e.g. today).

Yes, it is. 1 USD = 1 USD, always, every day since April 2, 1792.

Your example doesn't hold regardless of the presence of a central bank as it concerns the argument at hand.

 Roll Eyes

My example was serving to make what you were saying more logically palatable, and then you mangled it to make it once again illogical.

When bitserve said this:

It's just an equal sign with both *IDENTICAL* values at each side of the equal sign. That shouldn't be debatable.

he is _clearly_ talking about a reflexive property here, X = X. You are arguing against that, saying no, X doesn't equal X because X before is different than X now. While its value changes, the USD is not inherently different. It is always the same denomination of legal tender to be used in the U.S. for goods and services. The _value_ as measured against a basket of currencies or a gallon of milk or whatever is different -- that is a characteristic of X. You're just saying flat out X ≠ X, which is dumb.

This is exactly what I meant... explained in better words and proper notation.

I didn't expect something that simple would cause that much arguing, more so when the differences between BTC and USD are clear and we all agree on that... but that is a completely different thing that has nothing to do with the fact that both are equal to themselves... as absolutely everything is (equal to itself).

Anyways, "1 BTC = 1 BTC" is a strictly true statement and many people will keep using and giving it whatever meaning they want. This is fine.
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March 14, 2020, 11:45:41 AM
Last edit: March 14, 2020, 01:09:20 PM by ivomm
Merited by Biodom (1), 600watt (1), El duderino_ (1), JSRAW (1)

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.
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March 14, 2020, 12:02:37 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), LFC_Bitcoin (2), 600watt (1), bitserve (1), bitcoinPsycho (1), JSRAW (1), BobLawblaw (1)

I read some of those coins were sold on exchanges didn't move in the last 10 years.

Tip of the iceberg? Weak hands? You decide.

I am cool btw. I am focusing more on my business, will also follow my (new) DCA plan. Hopefully I won't make the same mistake this time.

I always thought It wouldn't come near of my point of entry price. which was 4700. The moment I saw it at 4000 I was about to lose my mind in the middle of the night 4.00AM... I am over it now. New day, new opportunity.
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March 14, 2020, 12:12:36 PM

I am over it now. New day, new opportunity.

Yeah, that's the spirit bro.... my best wishes
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March 14, 2020, 12:21:15 PM

I read some of those coins were sold on exchanges didn't move in the last 10 years.

Tip of the iceberg? Weak hands? You decide.

I am cool btw. I am focusing more on my business, will also follow my (new) DCA plan. Hopefully I won't make the same mistake this time.

I always thought It wouldn't come near of my point of entry price. which was 4700. The moment I saw it at 4000 I was about to lose my mind in the middle of the night 4.00AM... I am over it now. New day, new opportunity.

That's the attitude. Mistakes do happen but in the long run they are experiences and life goes on. Glad to see you back and with a new perspective.
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March 14, 2020, 12:25:29 PM

@mindrust

You don’t need to go anywhere. Just put on your big boy pants & buy back at least half of what you sold. We all make mistakes.

I’ve spent over £60,000 on bitcoin in the last 12 months. If I spent that money when I first knew about bitcoin I’d have thousands of coins, I’d be a whale (I don’t & I’m not).

You have to make the best of any situation you’re in. You fucked up, admit it & buy back. Have a really nice holiday & do something with the rest of the fiat but buy back some at least.

I agree with LFC, take your loss like a man and buy back.

Bitcoin is a way out of the system.

If you need a reminder how the system is currently run just look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObgXtL2bD7k

Bunch of apes in suits  Grin

I don't think I can buy back in it is over 1.7btc loss for me now. What if it goes down again. I managed to keep my mind state stable, if it goes down again, I'll suicide this time.  Grin

The only situation I can buy back in now is if  it again comes down to my capitulation price which is not likely.

edit: I can take a loss like ~0.5btc though. I am ok with $4.8k. Let's see Monday.
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March 14, 2020, 12:28:12 PM
Last edit: March 14, 2020, 12:49:28 PM by Icygreen

BTCitcoin fire sale 45% off
Limited time only
Get rekt!
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