Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

Busy day today, and to be honest this really fits my mood:

[Biodom]

Let me guess: last hour 1000-1500 points rally in the Dow-60% chance; decline to 13% loss and circuit breaker #2-40% chance.
Maybe both? Just seems unlikely to persist at this 9-10% loss.

[goldkingcoiner]

Corona is temporary... it will go away eventually...

Or stay permanently.

In Hubei province 2 cities (Xiaogan and Tianmen) locked down again after opening for only one day, this happens when you force to reopening facilities while the virus is still going on.

Spreading route is unstoppable, at this point there is always someone out there who keeps infecting other people and most likely without realising it.

Even when China ore Italy trying to get their country back to nomal there is a very high possibility to get reinfected again. Epicentre might be located in another city/region.

I don't want to see people suffering ore boomers to die -this needs to end asap- i'm a realist, as far i see it Covid19 will stay here for a while.

Teams around the globe working 24/7 finding a vaccine, i have full confident they will solve this problem. But when and how the virus behaves along the way is still uncertain.

It's a pretty crazy situation. If the virus doesn't recede significantly over the summer, will we stay on global lockdown for 1 year+, while waiting for a vaccine?

As far as I see it, corona will never disappear. We can't even fully get rid of AIDS or other simple viruses which are spread throughout the world. Whats the chance we can make corona disappear? And its not like the chickenpox. You can keep reinfecting yourself. Survive once sure, but the second time, your immune system is going to be running on low.

Suddenly I have an urge to visit foreign countries. I think I got the corona. D:

[OutOfMemory]

Local bottom forming, and support strengthening, resistance remaining constant.
Breakout very likely, imho. But also a very good opportunity to counter-trade and dump coins on us.
  what's next  

Getting rejected by the 200 Week MA and volume point of control on the hourly time-frame isn't promising imo, it was looking like a nice breakout for a moment there.

...

I also feel looking at smaller time-frames when the Weekly candle is about to close in 10 hours is somewhat redundant...

Sorry, i wasn't too wise in choice of words and i second your opinion. Not really optimistic.
But on the smaller timeframes: I chose it for visualizing the narrowing spread. Trading activity seems to be quite low, something might be in the air, imho.

Forgot to reply yesterday (too drunk, housemates birthday ) but please NEVER apologize for posting your charts or ideas in this thread - especially if I disagree with it. There is little to no benefit in everyone believing the same thing will happen, especially when a majority are usually wrong.

For example, while me and exstasie disagreed a lot in the recent past during the mini-bull (dead cat bounce) last year, this was beneficial because we could both benefit from each others alternative perspectives when shared. In the past few months, we have been sharing the same opinions a lot more often, and therefore the only benefit is seeing the same picture from a slightly different angle - therefore there is almost no benefit to either of us for this, or anyone else for that matter, as it only entrenches our own perspectives further.

Hence, often a don't have a response to exstasie's TA, because all I would have to say is "I agree, thanks for sharing", which I find better said with merit than words.

TL:DR: Please continue posting your charts and opinions, especially if they contradict my opinions  

No worries, i will
I just wasn't very precise, using the term "Breakout", which is commonly associated with a sudden UP move. I found the probability for a down move more likely, and i tried to correct that statement in my reply. We were both biased in the same direction, but my initial post was reading like the opposite. That was what i was apologizing for.

More and more traders seem to follow triangular boundaries on shorter timeframes. The lines almost always match, i tried to emphasize my "prediction" with the chart.
But you were right on the weekly candle, i tend to forget basic things like that more than often (points at his nickname).

Today i got hold of a bottle of my favourite vodka (made from milk), so maybe i'm the one that will be too drunk to reply later on today  

[JayJuanGee]

OK, I gave in. Just sent £8,000 to Coinbase & bought.

I obviously have a good sized corn stash but I now literally only have £2,000 worth of fiat in my entire list of banks & savings.

Effectively I am all in.


(Feeling guilty - the 2BTC were £7,700 combined so I had £300 left. I bought Litecoin with the £300 )

Yes... presumptively, you have an ongoing cashflow that could be made available for buying more bitcoin in the event that BTC prices stagnate in this arena for 6 to 12 months.. in a kind of worser case scenario.. .. though I do concede that even your 99% scenario seems quite optimistic on the lower end possibility.. and I hope you are correct in your seemingly too optimistic optimism.

@Lambie

Thanks man, I’m balls deep any way, I’m pretty much all in now. If you’re not buying now & you have spare fiat then I guess it proves you don’t fully believe.

You're welcome.   I wish I could buy more rn, but I fired off my last rounds before the Virus crashed everything.

I’m still going to buy regularly as I always have done & always will but it’ll be £500 here, £500 there & not larger amounts now.

Subsequent answer to my earlier (above) question regarding your anticipated ongoing cashflow that can reasonably be anticipated to be dedicated to ongoing BTC buys...

[JayJuanGee]

Bought some etherium at the cheap to diversify my portfolio.

Corona is temporary... it will go away eventually...

So bitcoin (and etherium) will rise once again  

Fuck ethereum...   you don't even know how to spell it, anyhow...  

I don't think ETH will rise like it did again unless you can find another round of ridiculous amount of idiots to get scammed by ICOs again..

ETH rose while facilitating all those disgusting scams..
ETH just made those scams too easy to pull off, and pumped on gas prices..

Fuck ETH almost the same as you would fuck ethereum or etherium.  Fuck them all!!!!   

[bkbirge]

The "experts" are at it again, the comments are pretty dismissive...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-is-crashing-more-than-stocks-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-161615204.html

“It is quite fascinating to watch how bad it’s performed,” said David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies. “To see bitcoin off $1,400 in a day, that’s not going to give people a lot of confidence that it’s doing what it’s sort of marketed to do.”

[BHSMC]

Guys,

Excuse my ignorance on this matter but is there a website that I can deposit fiat via wire transfer and can purchase some tether from the U.S?

It seems like I can only do BTC to Tether but any way I can get fiat to USDT?

Thanks a lot.

any help guys?

[Biodom]

Guys,

Excuse my ignorance on this matter but is there a website that I can deposit fiat via wire transfer and can purchase some tether from the U.S?

It seems like I can only do BTC to Tether but any way I can get fiat to USDT?

Thanks a lot.

any help guys?

Kraken.
You can transfer even by ACH to Gemini and trade immediately, but I am not sure that they trade USDT.
Wire transfer would take time too.

[JayJuanGee]

@Lambie

Thanks man, I’m balls deep any way, I’m pretty much all in now. If you’re not buying now & you have spare fiat then I guess it proves you don’t fully believe.

Seems to me that I sufficiently believe in BTC as much as most of the most ardent of BTC supporters, but surely that belief should not result in my employing more gambling and/or risk than I would prefer to employ, if I can avoid it... Therefore, I do not want to put myself into any more stress than i need to.

Yeah, I did not want BTC to go below $5k and I believed that it had pretty damned decent chances of NOT going below $5k.. but it did, anyhow.  Fuck that, but that is this kind of market.. cannot really know anything with any kind of meaningful level of confidence.

So, yeah, I have Buy orders down to $3k currently.. and really I do not want to inject any more fiat into this, but I have some fiat that is already theoretically allocated to BTC... and yeah, I will likely transfer half or so of that fiat to one of my exchanges if the BTC price breaks below $3,850 again... NO, NO, NO... I don't want the god-damned BTC price to be dipping below $3,850 because I do not want to transfer that money.. but fuck, I already have that tentative plan.. which is a hopefully it does not happen, one....  

Anyhow, that transferred in money would be to set up buy orders for below $3k.... Yeah. .I do not want it to happen, but BTC does not give any fucks about what I want.

Point is that "all in" is NOT the only strategy, and ONLY ends up being "the best" strategy, if you happen to end up being correct in a kind of gambling outcome.. which currently seems to be around 50/50 at this time... Nonetheless, I do happen to understand that it is NOT going to make a whole hell of a lot of a financial difference if you (or I) buy at $4,700 or $3,500, but it seems to me (projecting into the reasonable what-ifs) I am going to feel way the fuck better psychologically if I have money to buy in the lower $3ks, if the BTC price goes to that outrageous range rather than running out of money.

I have run out of money on several occasions in the past (at least resorted to more rationing than I would want based on NOT wanting to run out of money to buy BTC), and even in recent times, I have been kicking myself a little bit for having to ration my dollars as much as I have had to ration them in order to have more ability to meaningfully buy BTC than merely symbolic buys in the sub-$5k prices (that I had hoped to fuck would not have come, but those sub $5k prices did come, as we concretely and experientially know).

[BHSMC]

Guys,

Excuse my ignorance on this matter but is there a website that I can deposit fiat via wire transfer and can purchase some tether from the U.S?

It seems like I can only do BTC to Tether but any way I can get fiat to USDT?

Thanks a lot.

any help guys?

Kraken.
You can transfer even by ACH to Gemini and trade immediately, but I am not sure that they trade USDT.
Wire transfer would take time too.

Gemini doesn't support USDT.

If I buy bitcoin, then buy USDT, I will have to pay commission twice right?

[jojo69]

fuck Kraken

[rdbase]

Guys,
Excuse my ignorance on this matter but is there a website that I can deposit fiat via wire transfer and can purchase some tether from the U.S?
It seems like I can only do BTC to Tether but any way I can get fiat to USDT?
Thanks a lot.

any help guys?

Kraken.
You can transfer even by ACH to Gemini and trade immediately, but I am not sure that they trade USDT.
Wire transfer would take time too.

Gemini doesn't support USDT.
If I buy bitcoin, then buy USDT, I will have to pay commission twice right?

Check the banks which are supposed crypto friendly here since you are from the states.
https://moonbanking.com/?country=US

They will take a fee so dont expect to get 1:1 when looking to do a fiat to tether exchange because all exchanges do only btc -> USDT transactions.
Thats why you will have a hell of a time getting fiat into tether.
Banks will always take their cut above 10-25% cause they restrictively arent sposse to allow you to do transfer for crypto purchasing.
This is what they are fighting against so they dont lose customers.

Burn fiat, burn!

fuck Kraken

Aye Captain!

[Febo]

Corona is temporary... it will go away eventually...

Or stay permanently.

In Hubei province 2 cities (Xiaogan and Tianmen) locked down again after opening for only one day, this happens when you force to reopening facilities while the virus is still going on.

Spreading route is unstoppable, at this point there is always someone out there who keeps infecting other people and most likely without realising it.

Even when China ore Italy trying to get their country back to nomal there is a very high possibility to get reinfected again. Epicentre might be located in another city/region.

I don't want to see people suffering ore boomers to die -this needs to end asap- i'm a realist, as far i see it Covid19 will stay here for a while.

Teams around the globe working 24/7 finding a vaccine, i have full confident they will solve this problem. But when and how the virus behaves along the way is still uncertain.

It's a pretty crazy situation. If the virus doesn't recede significantly over the summer, will we stay on global lockdown for 1 year+, while waiting for a vaccine?

By Autumn all countries will have set systems to detect virus much faster and many will already get over it and have immunity.  Businesses and people will be way more organised to work and live with virus.  Elder citizens and sick will get quarantined.  Life will go on, just different then it went half year ago.  

[BHSMC]

Thank you so much ALL!!

Truly appreciate it.

[JayJuanGee]

Fair play award goes to them ....

In 1 week (3/23): $2,100 - $10,970
In 1 month (4/16): $1,500 - $12,970
In 3 months (6/16): $2,500 - $17,250
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $4,600 - $150,000

Yeah, and I can predict this:
In 1 week: $1,000 - $10,000
In 1 month: $500 - $20,000
In 1 year: $200 - $50,000
In 3 years: $100 - $100,000

Seems to me that both the bottom and the top are important numbers, and the bottom number will show a certain level of confidence that is likely to be the more important number...

so gosh, if I were to project out a bit further beyond the one year timeframe, like AlcoHoDL did, I am more certain about how to attempt to calculate the bottom number, but the top number becomes quite a bit more difficult to project out, because it likely becomes exponentially higher than current price and upward trajectories rather than linearly higher than current price and upward trajectories.

So the bottom number would likely average out to be an increase in value of 6%-10% or so per year .. and of course, the more conservative would be at the lower end of that projected percentage appreciation range. 

The upper number would likely attempt to extrapolate from BTC's past performance, but knowing that slope of the upward price moves has some limits, so the slope of the price up has to become somewhat more gradual  with the passage of time and the already increases in price... as many BTC price predictors have been attempting to outline since the beginning of bitcoin's having a market price and the theorizing of s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/metcalfe principles that goes back to 2010-ish and has been subsequently developed and expanded upon based on subsequent data gatherings.

[OutOfMemory]

It was a big mistake to try to migrate Covid discussion to the Coronavirus Outbreak thread.
Almost only pseudoscience adherers and esoteric morons to discuss with there 
This was so much better and respectable when we were discussing it here.

Most WOs are just very special, it seems.

[nullius]

This is a good debate, i.e. thoughtful disagreement.  Thanks, Phil_S:

Why do you assume that a replacement must exist before it [the dollar] collapses!?

Because its value is rooted in psychology. Right now people sell all types of assets (even gold) to buy dollars. Completely illogical, but that's a reality.

By that logic, every scam called out on the Scam Accusations forum has actual value as long as people believe in it.

Dollar will collapse when people will lose faith in it, when they'll rush to sell dollars to buy something else. That "something else" will become a new universally-recognized replacement.

Lots of worldwide value is locked in dollars right now. That value will not disappear. It will flow into "something else", into a replacement vessel.

Boldface on a faulty assumption.  Wealth is not a zero-sum game—not in either direction.  No quasi “law of conservation” applies.  Value is both created and destroyed.

I have long predicted that the collapse of the dollar and the collapse of industry, technology, and society will be intertwined in a feedback loop.  Massive amounts of real value will disappear.  Not flow to something else.  Things of durable value will remain; but not many people will have them.

I must now revisit something here:

Right now people sell all types of assets (even gold) to buy dollars.

That is incomprehensibly stupid.  It is also a very good way for the people who control dollars to extract the last bit of durable value from total idiots.  Well, I don’t have anything against that, in and of itself.  Total idiots don’t deserve to have things of durable value.  The only unfortunate part is that there are massive side effects to people who are not total idiots.

It's a pretty crazy situation. If the virus doesn't recede significantly over the summer, will we stay on global lockdown for 1 year+, while waiting for a vaccine?

A technocratic, industrialized, globalized international economy based on massive centralization and long supply chains cannot survive such a scenario as “global lockdown for 1 year+”.

That is why I accuse headless-chicken governments of destroying the world in a futile attempt to save it from a virus that is not being significantly slowed by all the lockdowns.

[El duderino_]

fuck Kraken

Sssjjj they provided me good services in the past, I know you have had some struggeling...

[lightfoot]

Let me guess: last hour 1000-1500 points rally in the Dow-60% chance; decline to 13% loss and circuit breaker #2-40% chance.
Maybe both? Just seems unlikely to persist at this 9-10% loss.

They keep injecting money and the market keeps going down. Reminds me of the end of "Inside Out" when all the emotions are pushing the buttons and....

it's not working......