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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26369750 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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March 22, 2020, 06:25:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

Completely inappropriate comparison, IMHO.
Intent matters in this case as long as it positive (enabling) and not negative (restricting).
Personally, I would like to know if i had it or not.
If I had it, then behavior and options available should change, apart from having less stress.
Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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March 22, 2020, 06:28:33 PM


That was priceless.
Thanx dude for my Sunday lol.
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March 22, 2020, 06:29:04 PM

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

Completely inappropriate comparison, IMHO.
Intent matters in this case as long as it positive (enabling) and not negative (restricting).
Personally, I would like to know if i had it or not.
If I had it, then behavior and options available should change, apart from having less stress.
Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.


See? So you are saying if you KNEW you are already inmune you would change your behaviour, relax your profilactic measures, and think yourself entitled to don't follow the restrictions, right?

Well, that's why it would be wrong to do that. Yet.
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March 22, 2020, 06:30:46 PM

... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour...

the girl is sewing up some ghetto ass fabric masks to go over our top quality N95 (which we have adequate supply of because...fucking duh) so we don't get the envious looks when out.
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March 22, 2020, 06:38:42 PM

Nice feel good article...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-was-designed-for-a-financial-crisis-so-far-its-working-well
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There are many who argue that Bitcoin cannot be a store-of-value based on its whipsaw volatility but valuable insight can be drawn from gold’s price action during the 2008 financial crisis.

Gold certainly doesn’t look like a safe haven after a 24% plunge in less than 2 months, even more worrisome is the fact that the S&P 500 remained flat during that period. Therefore, is it really fair to analyze any correlation over such a short period? Does that sharp movement in price invalidate gold’s resilience during market uncertainties?

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.
Said in laymen terms: Honey Badger doesn't give a fuck.
I won't comment again my own theory about "mining capitulation" induced dump in bitcoin, only to be reinforced by general asset classes crash. So Bitcoin capitulation started for reasons all inside the bitcoin "ecosystem" only to be later reinforced by general market crash.

Bitcoin going down because other asset classes crash (Equity, Debt and Gold) going down could lead you to think that bitcoin is still used as a gambling tools by many.
Trading bitcoin has low correlation to other asset classes and high volatility, this is a wonderful instrument for scalping (beware: this doesn't mean in any way it is a profitable strategy to scalp on bitcoin).
So, despite the digital gold is the best narrative I can think of while dealing with bitcoin, this proved to still be a narrative, not supported by data and market evidences.

Actually, if you want to have a ray of light, you can think that bitcoin is not the one you observe on the exchanges.
As beautifully pointed out by @Plutosky on the Italian board, bitcoins used for trading are only a minuscule part of the whole bitcoin used out there.

If bitcoin would have been a pure gambling tool, given the enormous swings during the last days we would have seen a great surge in  bitcoin transactions and a subsequent rise in transaction fees. Ok, we observed a rise in both metrics, but nothing comparable to what would have happened if we had observed a "rush" to the exchanges to trade bitcoins. We observed a few weak hands running to convert into Fiat, a few buying) but the vast majority of hodlers kept on...hodling.

If we look at LN statistics we see that the allocated bitcoins in LN are almost unchanged. Sign that no one thought their precious coins were at risk committed to a LN channel.

https://i.imgur.com/dLGzujP.jpg

Number of allocated BTC coins actually slightly increased over the market dump: sign that the LN user didn't think their coins were at risk being committed to a channel instead of rushing to a fiat exchange.

So, don't infer anything about bitcoin only looking at the price: the price is one of the many aspects of bitcoin, but there is much more to deal with than price.





Hey, could you please share the source where that graph comes from? Thanks.
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March 22, 2020, 06:43:14 PM

... or people will riot because some people are so "lucky" to have the PPE and can roam freely and they can't. Because that's predictible normal people behaviour...

the girl is sewing up some ghetto ass fabric masks to go over our top quality N95 (which we have adequate supply of because...fucking duh) so we don't get the envious looks when out.

Forget the envious look. If you were allowed to go to the street JUST because you have the protection and other people don't (and can't manage to obtain it)... you would probably be shouted and thrown all kinds of household objects at you from the balconies and windows of isolated people.

The other day a friend told me that when he was going to get on his car very early in the morning, an old woman started shouting at him to "stay at home / people are dying" from her balcony and started to throw him little stones from the flower pots while he was driving away in his car. He is a doctor and was going to work.
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March 22, 2020, 06:45:31 PM

Guys, I'm not at all religious, but I certainly don't appreciate where this is going.
Like, for real? You have to be shitting me.

I prefer to drop dead right now - than to physically mark me in any way, against my will - like sheep.
Do wake the fuck up. It is matter of freedom. This what is really tested.



Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.

I usually don't get sick at all, but last year around this period, I had a flu like no other.
It was like the cough insisted for a month after a full treatment cycle. My parents also got it, whilst living in another city. Some friends too. ONE fucking YEAR AGO.

Icygreen I think it was, reported something similar a couple of months back (not in Vietnam, before).
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March 22, 2020, 06:46:22 PM

I bought 0.35 Bitcoin recently when the price hits $3,850

Best decision I ever made, what a profit.  Cool

And YES, Bitcoin was already dead long time ago.

And, you always (and only) bang 10s, too.   Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Those were mine. I sold them by accident. Please can I have them back. I’ll give you £5 for your trouble.
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March 22, 2020, 06:46:22 PM
Merited by Torque (2), AlcoHoDL (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Bitcoin above $80K

But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn...  Grin Grin Grin

Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that.

What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K  in ten years. Or higher.

And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad.

The longer that I have been studying the bitcoin space, the more I have come to consider that both the bottom spikes and the bottom floating arena are amongst the more important factors, rather than the various upward price spikes, and of course, nothing is guaranteed, even while "~$80K  in ten years" as a floor seems to be a relatively conservative bet......   

and yeah, it could be argued that some of us are drinking too much BTC kool-aide, but given the whole way that these matters are playing out, bitcoin remains bullish as fuck.. and surely, hope that many of us (including yours truly) is still alive and well and even feeling powerful enough to witness 2030 and even to enjoy the likely wealth from such passage of events... thinking about it.. a floor BTC price that is more or less 13x greater than our current bouncing around price.

For younger folks, folks just learning about bitcoin, folks with a very limited budget or even folks who fucked up in their bitcoin strategy(ies) in the past (not only mindrust, but others), you should be able to figure out a way to reasonably and prudently profit from this decently likely situation, without going too fucking crazy in terms of a target timeline and not gambling too much with your own finances or psychology, either... and even DCAing a modest amount of $100 per month (or whatever amount that you can reasonably manage without devolving into a mindrust-like meltdown) is going to likely put you in a very fucking good (great) place in 10 years or so.
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March 22, 2020, 06:49:37 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

<...>
Hey, could you please share the source where that graph comes from? Thanks.

Easy!

https://bitcoinvisuals.com/lightning
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It's all mathematics...!


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March 22, 2020, 06:53:07 PM

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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March 22, 2020, 06:55:23 PM

The fact is that Bitcoin has zero correlation with other asset classes.

Not a fact. Even @aantop recognizes the correlation:



There's other more mathematically sound ways of identifying increasing correlation but they are too cumbersome and boring to reproduce at the moment.


I would be ecstatic if all institutions drop off completely (well, maybe except a couple that were super-early) until bitcoin gets to $20-50K based on NEW users.
Then, institutions can re-join the game and panic at 300K all they want (as long as we don't drop below 50K).

Couldn't agree with Andreas more, but don't forget it'll work the other way too, once price gets super comfortable, they'll pile on like flies on shit.
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March 22, 2020, 06:57:54 PM

Sen. Rand Paul has tested positive for coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/rand-paul-coronavirus/index.html

Shit, this is not how it was supposed to happen
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March 22, 2020, 06:59:17 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2020, 07:09:36 PM by Torque
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1)

Bitcoin above $80K

But... but... you're trying to say I'll be too old for the $100k party? Damn...  Grin Grin Grin

Not at all. Before 2030 comes I'm almost positive we'll see a spike above that.

What I'm talking about is the low, or sideways, price of BTC will float around ~$80K  in ten years. Or higher.

And by that time asset inflation will have been really really bad.

The longer that I have been studying the bitcoin space, the more I have come to consider that both the bottom spikes and the bottom floating arena are amongst the more important factors, rather than the various upward price spikes, and of course, nothing is guaranteed, even while "~$80K  in ten years" as a floor seems to be a relatively conservative bet......  

and yeah, it could be argued that some of us are drinking too much BTC kool-aide, but given the whole way that these matters are playing out, bitcoin remains bullish as fuck.. and surely, hope that many of us (including yours truly) is still alive and well and even feeling powerful enough to witness 2030 and even to enjoy the likely wealth from such passage of events... thinking about it.. a floor BTC price that is more or less 13x greater than our current bouncing around price.

For younger folks, folks just learning about bitcoin, folks with a very limited budget or even folks who fucked up in their bitcoin strategy(ies) in the past (not only mindrust, but others), you should be able to figure out a way to reasonably and prudently profit from this decently likely situation, without going too fucking crazy in terms of a target timeline and not gambling too much with your own finances or psychology, either... and even DCAing a modest amount of $100 per month (or whatever amount that you can reasonably manage without devolving into a mindrust-like meltdown) is going to likely put you in a very fucking good (great) place in 10 years or so.

Well said JJG. DCAing every month or three is a much better strategy that just FOMOing in during every bull run spike.

I mean, even if my conservative prediction of a $80K/btc floor in ten years turned out to be wrong, and it was instead say half of that. $40K+/btc. That's still, what, like 7X higher from here? Tell me what stock or other investment would do that by 2030? I'd be willing to bet none of them. None. Certainly not a corporate-blessed 401K, that's for damn sure.

For fk sake, even if people didn't like or want to own Bitcoin, they should at least be buying some Gold or Silver and hold it long term. But the sheeple aren't even willing to do that much. And then ten more years pass by and they wonder why they feel even poorer (Pssst! It's stagflation, stupid).  Roll Eyes
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March 22, 2020, 07:07:24 PM

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Humans are still the biggest threat to the human species.

Mind to share some additional thoughts about that $4800 statement?

For fk sake, even if people didn't like or want to own Bitcoin, they should at least be buying some Gold or Silver and hold it long term. But the sheeple aren't even willing to do that much. And then ten more years pass by and they wonder why they feel even poorer (Pssst! It's stagflation, stupid).  Roll Eyes

They are driven into over-consumption (and so into debt) for a reason.
It's an educational problem. If we can get people to be educated well, or self-educate well (for the older generations), they are able to step out of this filthy spending game.
Also nobody but the biggest idiots (minorities) would vote a ***tard like Donald for president.
But nowadays the media is educating people to be selfish little consumer zombies.  Roll Eyes
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March 22, 2020, 07:16:45 PM

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Humans are still the biggest threat to the human species.

Mind to share some additional thoughts about that $4800 statement?


The institutions will be a huge piece of the Bitcoin price going forward imho. Some of the wealthiest investors I know live New York and 12,300 New Yorkers just tested positive! I'm sure they don't care about investments right now when they are out looking for toilet paper and cleaning supplies.
It's the tip of the iceberg...
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March 22, 2020, 07:21:42 PM

Worldometers just reported over 12k cases in New York today! See below...
Some idiot lady just walked past me going into a supermarket coughing like crazy!
Maybe Bitcoin could hit 4800$ again soon imho

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Humans are still the biggest threat to the human species.

Mind to share some additional thoughts about that $4800 statement?


The institutions will be a huge piece of the Bitcoin price going forward imho. Some of the wealthiest investors I know live New York and 12,300 New Yorkers just tested positive! I'm sure they don't care about investments right now when they are out looking for toilet paper and cleaning supplies.
It's the tip of the iceberg...

Thanks. Now it makes more sense than that single statement on its own.
As such investor, i'd rather drop a lot of other assets instead of bitcoin, but that's just me (not a big investor).
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March 22, 2020, 07:23:32 PM

We come from here:

JJG https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54071466#msg54071466

Added the links to each page, I have also added some more.

Bitcoin Podcast

- The Bad crypto podcast https://badcryptopodcast.com/

- Bitcoin & Markets https://bitcoinandmarkets.com/

- Bitcoin echo chamber https://bitcoinechochamber.com/

- The bitcoin knowledge podcast https://www.bitcoin.kn/

- The bitcoin network podcast https://thebitcoinpodcast.com/

- Bitcoinmeister https://player.fm/series/2540016

- Bottomshelf bitcoin https://anchor.fm/bottomshelfbtc

- Citizen Bitcoin https://citizenbitcoin.world/

- Crypto & Grill https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/crypto-grill-cryptoandgrill-szVfuj_FecH/

- Crypto Cousins https://cryptocousins.com/crypto-cousins-podcast/

- Crypto Voices https://soundcloud.com/cryptovoices

- The Cryptoconomy https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy

- Fun With Bitcoin https://anchor.fm/funwithbitcoin

- Noded Bitcoin https://noded.org/

- The pomp https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pomp-podcast/id1434060078

- Pov Crypto https://povcryptopod.libsyn.com/

- Rekt podcast https://www.rektpodcast.com/listen-1

- Stephan Livera https://stephanlivera.com/

- Tales From the Crypt https://talesfromthecrypt.libsyn.com/

- Unchained https://unchainedpodcast.com/

- Unconfirmed https://unconfirmed.libsyn.com/

- World Crypto Network https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-world-crypto-network-podcast/id825708806

- Bitcoin Podcast https://www.lopp.net/bitcoin-information/podcasts.html

- Blockdigest https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCb53lXz2IzEFT5JNHSbdvPg/videos

- Cryptoconomy https://twitter.com/TheCryptoconomy

- Messari Crypto Podcasts  https://messari.io/resource/crypto-podcasts

- aantonop  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJWCJCWOxBYSi5DhCieLOLQ

- CoinDesk Podcast Network https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/late-confirmation-by-coindesk/id1414384043

You can summarize every podacst you hear in a post, we will read it carefully. Cool

The amount of additional work that you did (or seem willing to do) on this topic, VB1001, seems to justify that this could be its own thread that is updated periodically.  I am not sure if such a thread exists on the forum, but it surely is a prolific space and surely if such a thread were to be created, it might become somewhat overwhelming to keep track of not only if the podcast is still currently having new episodes coming out or if it is converting into a shitcoin podcast... hahahaha..

Fair (and reasonable) shitcoin deviance is likely something that varies from perspective, and sometimes even some of the greatest of podcasters might have some deviance that may or may not be tolerant... Recently, I had heard a coupe of the podcasters who had been in the podcast business for nearly three years and hundreds of episodes bantering about why the halvening date keeps changing, and they had been raising that issue in the past few episodes (it was actually the bad crypto podcast), and  I thought holy fucking shit, they don't even seem to know some basic shit that makes bitcoin amazing and that is regarding the re-targeting that takes place every two weeks... but anyhow, my main point is that sometimes very experienced podcasters might not know basic shit (which is even true from me, too, as you can see from my posts, from time to time, I will bring up some shit that I don't even know, and I ask for an explanation, then after someone explains it, then I realize that was some pretty basic shit that I had not even known or considered).
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March 22, 2020, 07:27:21 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A temporary tattoo can identify the certifiably fine, and they can spend unemployment doing things that will help. Pay them from the Govt and you have a serious solution to this mess.

Tattoo with the person's SS number and maybe sew a symbol on peoples' clothes. Like a big star to show people that you're a shining star in the darkness.

Completely inappropriate comparison, IMHO.
Intent matters in this case as long as it positive (enabling) and not negative (restricting).
Personally, I would like to know if i had it or not.
If I had it, then behavior and options available should change, apart from having less stress.
Now, the word is going around that it originally started in September and a few people who had nasty "flu" in late 2019 might have had CV instead.


See? So you are saying if you KNEW you are already inmune you would change your behaviour, relax your profilactic measures, and think yourself entitled to don't follow the restrictions, right?

Well, that's why it would be wrong to do that. Yet.

Not really...What i am saying that if someone knew their antibody status then they CAN take a bit more appropriate risk, like going to a grocery shop without much fear of being infected by a sneezing lady/guy nearby. Some can even volunteer for civic services. I am totally not saying that having antibodies would make you a superman partying day and night.

Having more information is almost always better. Regarding timing, I agree that maybe it is not the time, but only because the number of antibody-positive is probably low, although without testing we don't even know if it is a fact.
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March 22, 2020, 07:28:23 PM

A new Day, a new restriction in Italy.

Now it is forbid to move out or your local municipality.

Quote
Coronavirus, ban on the movement of people from the municipality where they are "except for proven needs"

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_22/coronavirus-divieto-spostamento-le-persone-comune-cui-si-trovano-af7a9136-6c51-11ea-8403-94d97cb6fb9f.shtml

Italy has now closed every non-essential activity.
You can exit from home only in a 200 m radius, for whatever reason, but work and food shopping.
Many supermarkets have now restricted opening hours, in addition only one person per family can enter the shop.

The only last step to be exactly like China is welders on the house doors.

Huh?  is that true?

There was not welding of doors in china, was there?
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