Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Run for your livers.

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/27

Prediction posted on: Thursday 2014-02-27, 04:04 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-02-27, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Recall that I had given two predictions, one for bulls, one for bears.  The actual price was between the two, closer to the bullish one:

Huobi's bearish predicted price: 2781 CNY
Huobi's bullish predicted price: 3802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3533 CNY
Error of bullish prediction: 269 CNY

Bitstamp's bearish predicted price: 454 USD
Bitstamp's bullish predicted price: 621 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 585 USD
Error of bullish prediction:  36 USD

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp had its normal value R ~ 6.12.  It seems that arbitrage trading has been restored.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R.

[mb300sd]

Chinese Slumber stuff coming next.  Run for your livers.

Between the alcohol and the coca that BTC has driven me to consume this week, I don't think there's much of one left.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday Feb/28

Trade volume for today Feb/27 volume (~123 kBTC) was about half of yesterday's (~251 kBTC), and apparently broke the seven-day spell of hectic trading at Huobi where the price, even at Slumber times, seemed to have no definite trend. It is as if the seven days Feb/20--26 had been one single "trading session", like Feb/11--12, Feb/13--14, and Feb/16--17.

The price at the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) hardly changed from yesterday's: from 3543 CNY to 3533 CNY.  Even though today was nominally a False Slumber Point, it suggests a rather simple pattern that seems to fit most of the True Slumber points since Feb/06.

The general form of the trend is a shifted decaying exponential, p(d) = A + B*Q**d, where A,B,Q are constants and d is the day of the month. The ratio Q, fitted by hand computations to the Slumber Points Feb/6--9, is about 0.66 (i.e. a 34% decay for each day of the part of the price above the constant A).  Since Feb/20 the term B*Q**d is so small that the trend can be approximated by a horizontal line p(d) = A.

That trend is broken into three pieces by two sharp and permanent down-steps, one by ~232 CNY on Feb/10 (the first press release by MtGOX), and the other by ~372 CNY on Feb/20 (the second press release).  Each piece has different values of A and slightly different values of B, which can be found by least squares fitting on the True Slumber points.  See the figure:


The prediction for today (blue rectangle) is obtained by extrapolating the last part of this stepped-exponential trend line --- that is, practically repeating today's value:

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-02-28, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3533 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 577 USD.

For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: As you can see, predicting the past is much easier than predicting the future.

[Erdogan]

Your complaint about bitcoin boils down to this:  You can't force people to use their savings on what you want them to use it for.  I regard that as a feature, not a bug.

If an country would adopt this "feature" in it's currency then it will soon fall behind competitiveness, because it hurts both trade and production. That is why countries are not using this model. The bitcoin community isn't a pack of tortured geniuses who knows the answer how to prosper, while the rest of the world is just so dumb, that they wont understand the enlightened truth. This is the work of the cult mentality that I've been talking about.

There are two reasons why "countries", really governments of countries, wants fiat money in stead of sound money. Number one is that they can repeatedly, without their subjects discovering, steal from the money supply. Number two is that they think they can force investments through the zero interest rate policy. They can not really, because the credit made available goes to suboptimal production, sometimes even capital consumption, taking everybody down in the process.

Sound money (of which bitcoin is an example) is in the interest of everyone except governments of countries.

[theonewhowaskazu]

We're in post-triangle area right now. Breakout any minute now.

[shmadz]

...what I have understood is that bitcoin isn't a good invention, but it's a good innovation...

The blockchain man, it is a fucking invention, the world had to wait 30 years for this one after public key cryptography was invented.

While I agree, that blockchain is the part that could be classified as an invention the most. Then I still have to say that I see it more as an innovation, because it is built on already created inventions in cryptography. I think that blockchain is a great innovation, but I also think that it will be as great of an innovation in the future as iPhone1 is right now.

I partly agree, because the blockchain (the distributed blockchain, really) was inspired by some proof of work testing as an email spam antimeasure. But following crypto developments from the sideline for many years, reading the bitcoin whitepaper was a revelation.

I know most here have read it already but for those that haven't:   https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

I suggest everyone who hasn't already done so, first download this pdf and back it up in every place you can imagine; then, actually read the thing.

An idea like Bitcoin is exactly the kind of stuff that book burning was invented to combat.

[bitjoint]

An idea like Bitcoin is exactly the kind of stuff that book burning was invented to combat.

Precisely...

Printing Press == Free thought
Bitcoin == Economic Freedom

[shmadz]

An idea like Bitcoin is exactly the kind of stuff that book burning was invented to combat.

Precisely...

Printing Press == Free thought
Bitcoin == Economic Freedom

thanks dude, very concise.

how I'm feeling right now, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZCDifG3zQc  <- by ZhouTonged, first time I heard it I thought it was crap, second time I actually paid attention to the lyrics... third time, I loved it.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Lol bitcoin tried to breakout to the upside twice, and failed both times. At least something is happening !

[hmmmstrange]

i demand for loaded to give his 'whale eater' title to mark

hmmm, how to say that was funny without pissing off some really pissed off whales.......

[kkaspar]

There are two reasons why "countries", really governments of countries, wants fiat money in stead of sound money. Number one is that they can repeatedly, without their subjects discovering, steal from the money supply.

Fiat money and sound money aren't opposites. There are fiat that are soft and there are fiat that are hard. People are whining that money isn't directly connected to gold anymore and they don't even bother to study why. Instead of gold, today we have the petrodollar, where the actual thing that gives value to the dollar is oil that has better practical value and less speculative value.

How come can the government, or more specifically an politician, steal more in case there is a steady inflation rate?

Number two is that they think they can force investments through the zero interest rate policy. They can not really, because the credit made available goes to suboptimal production, sometimes even capital consumption, taking everybody down in the process.

Sound money (of which bitcoin is an example) is in the interest of everyone except governments of countries.

Problems with suboptimal production and capital consumption come from places that lacks education, tradition and culture. I think you are right on that, there is a connection there on how more developed societies can handle themselves better under more intensive investment pressure. There could be a rule that less developed countries need stable deflation rate instead. But.. in this subject we are talking about bitcoin, that has no stable deflation rate. It is volatile and with a never-ending rise. It's a beautiful piece of art, but it has no place in serious finance because of that.
It's job is to introduce the entire subject, so it needed to be attractive to the regular folks who believe financial fairytales. Through regular people, the subject can also reach more influential people, who can start implementing the realistic parts of that idea to everyday finance.

There is no use trying to convince me that bitcoin can survive more then couple of years, before it will get eaten by competition. To me it sounds like, when someone is the first to struck oil, and then no one else on earth will drill for oil any longer, because someone else already did it. Creating the perfect digital currency will soon be the holy grail to everyone who consider them to be geniuses at software engineering.

[solex]

Lol bitcoin tried to breakout to the upside twice, and failed both times. At least something is happening !

The market will always take it's own time to act. I think 590 is the major resistance. If you look at the 3-day chart, it is where the downtrend is presently set.

[surfer43]

Haven't seen this stability in a while  Whales tired of volatility telling there bots to keep the price at 565? 

[PoolMinor]

I made this for the CCMFers, I hope you like it.










Image used for educational purposes.

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !   Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !                     
  EXCHANGE   ! 02/19 !  02/20 !  02/21 !  02/22 !  02/23 !  02/24 !  02/25 !  02/26 !  02/27 ! Currencies considered


  Bitstamp   | 20.76 |  34.97 |  29.61 |  18.08 |  20.87 |  51.84 | 115.76 |  49.11 |  17.05 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  5.84 |  23.37 |  23.64 |  18.68 |  14.24 |  20.78 |  73.86 |  33.61 |  14.60 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  BitFinEx   |  4.71 |  25.27 |  28.46 |  14.73 |  15.80 |  27.16 |  94.55 |  37.71 |  12.04 | USD                 
  Kraken     |  0.38 |   1.60 |   1.15 |   1.08 |   1.06 |   1.06 |   2.23 |   1.87 |   0.89 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |  0.54 |   0.70 |   0.76 |   0.61 |   0.50 |   0.73 |   2.23 |   1.00 |   0.50 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |  0.11 |   0.75 |   0.60 |   0.20 |   0.23 |   0.30 |   2.15 |   0.32 |   0.31 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |  0.14 |   0.73 |   0.24 |   0.26 |   0.22 |   0.37 |   0.42 |   0.36 |   0.05 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 32.48 |  87.39 |  84.46 |  53.64 |  52.92 | 102.24 | 291.20 | 123.98 |  45.44 |                     

  Huobi      | 34.12 | 131.14 | 187.12 | 154.12 | 185.15 | 163.47 | 352.76 | 250.64 | 123.38 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     | 26.29 |  53.49 | 140.75 |  87.71 | 141.90 |  84.03 | 275.68 | 150.41 |  83.60 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |  2.04 |  10.97 |  15.23 |   9.29 |  10.42 |  13.12 |  27.72 |  14.72 |   6.71 | CNY                 
  Bter       |  0.37 |   0.77 |   0.63 |   0.48 |   0.62 |   0.53 |   1.10 |   0.53 |   0.31 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 62.82 | 196.37 | 343.73 | 251.60 | 338.09 | 261.15 | 657.26 | 416.30 | 214.00 |                     

  TOTAL      | 95.30 | 283.76 | 428.19 | 305.24 | 391.01 | 363.39 | 948.46 | 540.28 | 259.44 |                     



All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

NOTE: MtGOX is now closed.

[Hypnoise]

waiting for more cheap coins   

[Amechan]

I made this for the CCMFers, I hope you like it.










Image used for educational purposes.

Why is his penis labeled?

[sonofliberty]

[cbutters]

I made this for the CCMFers, I hope you like it.










Image used for educational purposes.

Why is his penis labeled?

Also, why is the train going the wrong ways? needs to be going up and away
Unless its going back in time to 2011 to buy a ton of bitcoin for cheap!