Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[heslo]

if there's anything I've learnt from BTC over the years, it's once you think you've got it worked out... you don't

Amen to that.  Doesn't stop us trying though !

That's half the fun isn't it!?!

[nutildah]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.488.17.pdf

Faketoshi had about BTC50 on Gox. Yep, definitely sounds like a creator of BTC who owns BTC1MM

Thanks for sharing this, I'm reading the whole thing. It's kind of dry -- the part you mentioned seems to be some of the only interesting stuff.

Craig had kept some of his - had - well, "some of it", I think he kept all of his bitcoin there...

Again, doesn't sound like something Satoshi would do... keep all his bitcoin on MtGOX...

[El duderino_]

Come on hairy grow a sack 

[random_australian]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

I agree with almost all of that. The only thing I would say is wrong is what happens when the economy gets refucked. The end game for the current financial system should have been a decade away at least, but once the cascading defaults begin, there will be two options. Massive deflation, on a scale never before seen as the debt unwinds through default, or massive inflation as all the debt is printed to oblivion to avoid the deflation scenario. The people making the decisions know they are going to have to destroy both the dollar and the current monetary system. They all wish they could have kicked the can a little bit further so it was the next person who had to deal with it. But COVID has bought the whole clusterfuck to a head. Bitcoin will soar against a dollar that destroys itself, because it must be destroyed. The deflation scenario will be too terrifying for those in charge to contemplate. They will see their heads on spikes. Things are going to get very weird I think, it will probably be good for bitcoin, but it will be really fucked up in so many other ways we may not care as much as we think we will.

[heslo]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.488.17.pdf

Faketoshi had about BTC50 on Gox. Yep, definitely sounds like a creator of BTC who owns BTC1MM

Thanks for sharing this, I'm reading the whole thing. It's kind of dry -- the part you mentioned seems to be some of the only interesting stuff.

Craig had kept some of his - had - well, "some of it", I think he kept all of his bitcoin there...

Again, doesn't sound like something Satoshi would do... keep all his bitcoin on MtGOX...

Exactly. That in itself is why it's so laughable that Craig claims he's Satoshi

[Tash]

.....

China was in lockdown for 16 Days (not Wuhan) and there was no need for it. Millions of commutes to all major citys including Beijing and Shanghai before anyone know of COVID or any bullshit test was available. Singapur, Belarus, Japan never locked down no, how crowded is Tokio.
Its a scamdemic and time to get satanist Bill and others in court.
If the fishtank is dirty and fish die you dont vaccinate the fish, clean the tank.

[Wekkel]

The whole story hangs on the notion that the virus is bad. Yes, it kills people. But is it a global pandemonium? Despite what the news wants to tell us, the jury is still out on that one

[HairyMaclairy]

Come on hairy grow a sack 

I'm not selling bro.  I'm postulating.  And putting my leveraged long entry points very deep. 

[HairyMaclairy]

.....

China was in lockdown for 16 Days (not Wuhan) and there was no need for it. Millions of commutes to all major citys including Beijing and Shanghai before anyone know of COVID or any bullshit test was available.

China also track and trace the fuck out of everyone.  You get measured your temperature everywhere 20 times per day.  You can't enter the mall without showing a government form on your phone that you are a coronavirus free.  They track and analyse your location constantly.  They have CCTV inside apartment hallways watching your door.  If you have a cough, they put you in a white van and you disappear.   It's not comparable.  

Also all Chinese statistics are bullshit and always have been.  It was that way when I was working there in the early 2000's.  They could bury 10 million people in a field and no one would know.  

[rolling]

The US populace is not going to have an appetite for another shutdown, especially when this virus is not the killer they thought it was. It's more like .1% not 1% given that they aren't doing widespread testing. They caught people off guard this time but the protesters and lawsuits will be ready if they try to shut us down again.

Remember, we have guns in this country and we won't be bullied by the government for too long. If that means 300,000 die, so be it. If you don't want to die from it, you stay home, you don't imprison a whole population. This is the American way whether people realize it or not.

Also, on the numbers, there is a financial incentive for US hospitals to inflate the numbers. Any death, regardless of the cause, is tested for Covid in order to get federal emergency funds by calling it a Covid death. The numbers are probably half which is a tiny number given the huge population and limited lock-downs.

Lifting the lock-downs is the right decision.

[El duderino_]

We maybe AYH this weekend

[bitcoinPsycho]

We maybe AYH this weekend

I like your way of thinking

[vapourminer]

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked. 

I'm turning you in vapourminer. 

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

meh apparently im too stupid to post images right now i guess
https://imgflip.com/i/40r3ec

[NeuroticFish]

We maybe AYH this weekend

Naaah, that'll have to be around Christmas. Why break such wonderful tradition?

[Phil_S]

By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early

It's just not possible NOT to "half-arse" the lockdown.

The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.

I think Russia's numbers are lower - 1700 total deaths, but they do LOTS of tests, so the number of confirmed positives is 200,000 and rising fast. The real number of positives is probably 2x-3x higher.

[soullyG]

We're still trying to break out of long term triangles, S2F model indicates we may be pulled kicking and screaming towards $20k by around October time if we haven't already broken out by then, and July 2021 is the crunch point if we are really slow-rolling things.

[virasog]

[Millionero]

HrMcL
ultimate FUDDER
#nevergofullchickenlittle

The US populace is not going to have an appetite for another shutdown, especially when this virus is not the killer they thought it was. It's more like .1% not 1%

Plus Hairy was taking 1.33% and multiplying it by the entire population, not the caseload, to get millions of deaths.
The toll of deaths will be maybe a hundred thousand or a couple of hundred thousand at most in the first year, and drop off drastically after that.
What's the rate of people dying by falling in the shower?  Suicides?  Workplace accidents?

We had the same logic in response to a few thousand deaths at the World Trade Center.  The world must be forever after changed, with a security/surveillance state and non-stop wars for our lifetimes and maybe a few generations after us.
Now the state responds to the virus the same way.   The public's being herded into pens and the economy slaughtered to keep us... safe.
Well, maybe not so safe.  Just fucked.

And let's get this straight.  The virus can't fuck up the world economy.  That's up to us, and we're doing a bang-up job!
Even the Spanish Flu only had marginal effects on the economy, because people kept going to work.

[STT]

The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.

Lockdown is a temporary measure, its not feasible as a solution while waiting for a 'cure'.    What is going to have to change is how people behave, the distance they keep and so on but they cant just not operate an economy for months.   Most countries have way too much debt, if we had all stored up value it'd maybe work a bit better.   The more important action now is adaption over months even years to slow down the ease it spreads.
   Summer at least has the advantage of being able to do more things outside, if I was in charge and the situation forces everyone into close proximity I'd just advise them we are done for today.  In terms of profit making and the competition of business vs business I'm not sure how that can be regulated, goodwill only goes so far so its probably down to unions and workers rights to be respected in not being forced to take unneeded risks.
 
As to whether its a pandemic because most should survive, I think it is pandemic because it can spread so easily.   One person in a restaurant can spread it to over half a dozen and one or two of those could die which is lethal enough to take extreme actions such as only allowing outside eating, I dont think thats too much to ask for years forward even.
  The world is always changing and now this remote factor is going into fast forward, in terms of crypto its probably a good thing and backs its usefulness to society long term also.   Early in 2020 I read some possible threat of harsh legislation vs crypto so I do hope that idea is filed away and forgotten forever now that once again decentralisation has proved important to human resilience.


I think the pullback from 10k is a fakeout, 9200 would be a true test and we'll see clearer over the halvening event, lots of maybes and sideways action is my rough expectation.

[Elwar]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

How is this an unpopular post? You are posting the government narrative that is being pushed right now. They even have pictures.




But what will likely happen in the US is people are sick of the lockdowns, they see that the US dun goofed after seeing the results in Sweden obtaining herd immunity.

So...lift the sanctions, sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss...time to do like Sweden and just get over it once and for all instead of this screwing around with peoples' lives for a few people in nursing homes that are on their death beds.

The curve will not be as high as in Sweden due to a small percentage of the population already having it already.

Will a lot of people in the socialist New York health care system die...oh yes...many many people in New York. So many New Yorkers will feel the first hand results of government intervention into their health. That really sucks. A microcosm of communism as a demonstration of what not to do. Perhaps useful as an example for the rest of the country of what not to do to your health care.

Now that is the unpopular opinion.