Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early

It's just not possible NOT to "half-arse" the lockdown.

The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.

I think Russia's numbers are lower - 1700 total deaths, but they do LOTS of tests, so the number of confirmed positives is 200,000 and rising fast. The real number of positives is probably 2x-3x higher.

[soullyG]

We're still trying to break out of long term triangles, S2F model indicates we may be pulled kicking and screaming towards $20k by around October time if we haven't already broken out by then, and July 2021 is the crunch point if we are really slow-rolling things.

[virasog]

[Millionero]

HrMcL
ultimate FUDDER
#nevergofullchickenlittle

The US populace is not going to have an appetite for another shutdown, especially when this virus is not the killer they thought it was. It's more like .1% not 1%

Plus Hairy was taking 1.33% and multiplying it by the entire population, not the caseload, to get millions of deaths.
The toll of deaths will be maybe a hundred thousand or a couple of hundred thousand at most in the first year, and drop off drastically after that.
What's the rate of people dying by falling in the shower?  Suicides?  Workplace accidents?

We had the same logic in response to a few thousand deaths at the World Trade Center.  The world must be forever after changed, with a security/surveillance state and non-stop wars for our lifetimes and maybe a few generations after us.
Now the state responds to the virus the same way.   The public's being herded into pens and the economy slaughtered to keep us... safe.
Well, maybe not so safe.  Just fucked.

And let's get this straight.  The virus can't fuck up the world economy.  That's up to us, and we're doing a bang-up job!
Even the Spanish Flu only had marginal effects on the economy, because people kept going to work.

[STT]

The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.

Lockdown is a temporary measure, its not feasible as a solution while waiting for a 'cure'.    What is going to have to change is how people behave, the distance they keep and so on but they cant just not operate an economy for months.   Most countries have way too much debt, if we had all stored up value it'd maybe work a bit better.   The more important action now is adaption over months even years to slow down the ease it spreads.
   Summer at least has the advantage of being able to do more things outside, if I was in charge and the situation forces everyone into close proximity I'd just advise them we are done for today.  In terms of profit making and the competition of business vs business I'm not sure how that can be regulated, goodwill only goes so far so its probably down to unions and workers rights to be respected in not being forced to take unneeded risks.
 
As to whether its a pandemic because most should survive, I think it is pandemic because it can spread so easily.   One person in a restaurant can spread it to over half a dozen and one or two of those could die which is lethal enough to take extreme actions such as only allowing outside eating, I dont think thats too much to ask for years forward even.
  The world is always changing and now this remote factor is going into fast forward, in terms of crypto its probably a good thing and backs its usefulness to society long term also.   Early in 2020 I read some possible threat of harsh legislation vs crypto so I do hope that idea is filed away and forgotten forever now that once again decentralisation has proved important to human resilience.


I think the pullback from 10k is a fakeout, 9200 would be a true test and we'll see clearer over the halvening event, lots of maybes and sideways action is my rough expectation.

[Elwar]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

How is this an unpopular post? You are posting the government narrative that is being pushed right now. They even have pictures.




But what will likely happen in the US is people are sick of the lockdowns, they see that the US dun goofed after seeing the results in Sweden obtaining herd immunity.

So...lift the sanctions, sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss...time to do like Sweden and just get over it once and for all instead of this screwing around with peoples' lives for a few people in nursing homes that are on their death beds.

The curve will not be as high as in Sweden due to a small percentage of the population already having it already.

Will a lot of people in the socialist New York health care system die...oh yes...many many people in New York. So many New Yorkers will feel the first hand results of government intervention into their health. That really sucks. A microcosm of communism as a demonstration of what not to do. Perhaps useful as an example for the rest of the country of what not to do to your health care.

Now that is the unpopular opinion.

[Millionero]

I wanna be umpopular too.

[xhomerx10]

I wanna be umpopular too.

 That's it!!  Welcome to my ignore list.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Seems we're having a bit of trouble staying in 5 digits... currently $9734USD/$13645CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Meanwhile the halving is only a couple of days away.

Go Bitcoin go.

There's the problem. $100 a week are $400 a month. You can perfectly feed yourself and even cover some (if not all) of the basic survival needs with that amount. Yet people do decide to go ahead with that and then they need someone else to feed them? No, that is indeed BAD.

You (should) only use credit to SAVE (ie: to own a property instead of renting for the same monthly amount or even lower) not to SPEND more. Doing otherwise is nuts and usually the reason why people with a more than healthy income are constantly in the verge of bankruptcy.

I say you should only use credit to earn money, not to spend it.

Borrowing to spend on unnecessary luxuries like cars and phones is silly unless they are essential tools for earning money. Even then there are usually cheaper options that don't require borrowing.

Of course most people have been brainwashed by lifelong propaganda:

student loan, diploma, employee job, credit card, car payments, mortgage, overtime (or 2nd job), overpriced holiday package, designer clothing, etc.

They think borrowing and buying is the normal thing to do.

[xhomerx10]

The next 60 hours are not entirely insignificant!

Fuck... it's snowing here.

[nutildah]

Now that is the unpopular opinion.

Not really. You'd be right at home in the P&S section of the forum. Or at a Trump rally for that matter.

New York doesn't have a "socialist healthcare system." They have the same healthcare system as all 49 other states: most people are privately insured, some are on medicare or medicaid, and the rest don't have any insurance. That's how it is across the entire country.

And this...

sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss

What?

[Phil_S]

Two more examples of low death rate:


Iceland: 1,801 confirmed cases, 10 deaths.

Singapore: 21,707 confirmed cases, 20 deaths.


They also do LOTS of tests (Iceland is number one with 144,800 tests per mil)

[Millionero]

I wanna be umpopular too.

 That's it!!  Welcome to my ignore list.

Oh thank you thank you thank you.
Now I know what it feels like to be wanted!
#nohomo

[soxxx]

Just my opinion but I think we go back down to $9500 over the weekend, retest the trend line we broke out of, then we move up come Sunday night/Monday, probably go up to $10.5k this week, if not on monday. We may see some fireworks on monday, keep your fingers crossed.

We nearly hit the downside target of 9.5k, prepare for fireworks starting Sunday Night/Monday

[xhomerx10]

I wanna be umpopular too.

 That's it!!  Welcome to my ignore list.

Oh thank you thank you thank you.
Now I know what it feels like to be wanted!
#nohomo

 You mean unwanted!

Back to ignore!  

 Edit: it should be illegal to have this much fun at work.

[elrippos friend]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

How is this an unpopular post? You are posting the government narrative that is being pushed right now. They even have pictures.




But what will likely happen in the US is people are sick of the lockdowns, they see that the US dun goofed after seeing the results in Sweden obtaining herd immunity.

So...lift the sanctions, sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss...time to do like Sweden and just get over it once and for all instead of this screwing around with peoples' lives for a few people in nursing homes that are on their death beds.

The curve will not be as high as in Sweden due to a small percentage of the population already having it already.

Will a lot of people in the socialist New York health care system die...oh yes...many many people in New York. So many New Yorkers will feel the first hand results of government intervention into their health. That really sucks. A microcosm of communism as a demonstration of what not to do. Perhaps useful as an example for the rest of the country of what not to do to your health care.

Now that is the unpopular opinion.

And you honestly believe in a Vaccine 

[Elwar]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Seems we're having a bit of trouble staying in 5 digits... currently $9734USD/$13645CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Meanwhile the halving is only a couple of days away.

Go Bitcoin go.

There's the problem. $100 a week are $400 a month. You can perfectly feed yourself and even cover some (if not all) of the basic survival needs with that amount. Yet people do decide to go ahead with that and then they need someone else to feed them? No, that is indeed BAD.

You (should) only use credit to SAVE (ie: to own a property instead of renting for the same monthly amount or even lower) not to SPEND more. Doing otherwise is nuts and usually the reason why people with a more than healthy income are constantly in the verge of bankruptcy.

I say you should only use credit to earn money, not to spend it.

Borrowing to spend on unnecessary luxuries like cars and phones is silly unless they are essential tools for earning money. Even then there are usually cheaper options that don't require borrowing.

Of course most people have been brainwashed by lifelong propaganda:

student loan, diploma, employee job, credit card, car payments, mortgage, overtime (or 2nd job), overpriced holiday package, designer clothing, etc.

They think borrowing and buying is the normal thing to do.

You should use credit to buy bitcoins. Go deep in fiat debt to be crypto positive.

[VB1001]

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked.  

I'm turning you in vapourminer.  

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

(Done, image uploaded for vapouminer)

[Elwar]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

How is this an unpopular post? You are posting the government narrative that is being pushed right now. They even have pictures.




But what will likely happen in the US is people are sick of the lockdowns, they see that the US dun goofed after seeing the results in Sweden obtaining herd immunity.

So...lift the sanctions, sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss...time to do like Sweden and just get over it once and for all instead of this screwing around with peoples' lives for a few people in nursing homes that are on their death beds.

The curve will not be as high as in Sweden due to a small percentage of the population already having it already.

Will a lot of people in the socialist New York health care system die...oh yes...many many people in New York. So many New Yorkers will feel the first hand results of government intervention into their health. That really sucks. A microcosm of communism as a demonstration of what not to do. Perhaps useful as an example for the rest of the country of what not to do to your health care.

Now that is the unpopular opinion.

And you honestly believe in a Vaccine 

Yes, like I want to be one of Bill Gates' beta testers for his innovative new vaccine.

Because when you get injected with something it's best if it is untested and innovative.

[Elwar]

New York doesn't have a "socialist healthcare system." They have the same healthcare system as all 49 other states: most people are privately insured, some are on medicare or medicaid, and the rest don't have any insurance. That's how it is across the entire country.

Except how their hospitals are under a central government control.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/3/21207310/coronavirus-new-york-hospitals-andrew-cuomo?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

I didn't even know about this until just now but I assumed that the high number of deaths had to do with some sort of government intervention. Sure enough...there it is. Anyone with a history book knows that socialism kills people aggressively. So if people truly don't want people dying...try less socialism. But...I know, you really don't care about people dying. You care about the fear that you can use to spread more government. If you cared about life you'd be all about supporting life extension technology, allowing a free market health care system, encouraging population growth...

sorry about the thousands of deaths due to unemployment and job loss

What?

Are you new to economic downturns? First time?