Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

JJG:  my bad.  I meant not holding open leveraged long positions which could get liquidated.  I am about 93% BTC, 7% cash at the moment.  

I don’t know what level we could revisit and I am not going to forecast it.  It could be mild or it could be severe.  But the stock market is way too high right now.  

Here is the SPX500.  There is no justification for us to be sitting at October 2019 levels.  The market has gotten ahead of itself with the promise of reopening, not realising that reopening is going to see bad times.  The stock market "should" tank.  In writing this I acknowledge conventional wisdom is you should never fight the Fed.  So the market is going to swing on interpreting the Fed.

Fair enough... I otherwise agree with a lot of what you had already said about the potential negative calamity and fall out from various bullshit policies that sometimes seem to be devolving into categories of intentional evil rather than mere incompetence...... even if there might not be a need for anyone here to panic, exactly, unless they had otherwise been ONLY preparing for one direction, which has never been something that I have considered to be feasible, even in less ambiguous times, so it is just a matter of attempting to prepare for both directions, and maybe tweaking your thinking and your holdings a bit in order to account for some changes in macro factors.

[cAPSLOCK]

So today I had a bit of a heart thumper...

I run nodes.  Because I think it is important to run nodes.  Do I think everyone should? No.  Just like I think many of the thoughts of the crypto community (yes i said CRYPTO, JJG) are pie in the sky idealism with ideas like "being your own bank" or citadels.  Lol.

It's not that you have to. It's that you CAN that is the revolution. You CAN be your own bank.  You CAN run a bitcoin node.

Well i was cleaning up the studio a little today to make room for this thing which fedex delivers today:


And I happened to glance at one of my lightning nodes.  It's running on a rPi and has a itty bitty screen that just lets mne know it's all good.

give root password for maintenance or press ctrl+d to continue

Oh, shit.

Quick log into 1ml.com and go look at my node.  Last update?  7 days ago.  Dang it! 

• How did I let that slip by so long???
• What is the expiry on the HTLCs for this one?  Did I happen to set them to a week?
• What if the damn HDD is toast?
• Did I remember to set up the channel backups?
• If so did I do it properly?
• Where is my seed for this one again?
• What version of LND/bitcoind/rtl/etc am I running again?

So then I downloaded puppy linux, used rufus to set it up on some trash USB thumbdrive booted, plugged in the HDD, and tried to mount. 

"Cannot mount. Structure needs cleaning."

Oh, thank God.  This is probably just a borked filesystem from a power outage I didn't notice.

fsck -y /dev/hdd1

Repaired.

mkdir ~/ln
mount /dev/hdd1 ln
Filesystem mounted.

la -la

etc...

Whew...
mkdir /mnt/windowsdisk/ln
cp -fR ln/ /mnt/windowsdisk/ln/

Go get coffee...

It backed up... Shut it down properly, umount it, power up the rPi again...



Whew...

So, yeah.  Nothing was ever all that wrong.  There was no catastrophe.  I was able to get it up and running easily, it was the absolute least bad thing that could even have happened.

But here's the thing.  I know what I am doing.  I mean where am I on the continuum from enough-to-be-dangerous------------the-guy-you-should-call? Probably pretty solidly on the left hand side over there.  But that's just it.  Running a lightning node is technically complex for most people, even one like this using an out of the box product (raspiblitz... can't say enough good about it.  Solid and well done, although I have upgraded lnd and rtl manually... can't help it).  My other LND note was built fully from scratch (well, not LFS, but Arch), and if it just had not been one of the first 200 nodes... EVER... I think I would take it down and replace it with another one of these. And you know, I just might take it down and be DONE with it.

Why?

Doing this is still risky!  It is still overly complicated.  If you are not behind TOR you are running a effing hotwallet on a public IP out in the open with experimental bitcoin smart contracts holding (in my case) waaaaay more value than I would feel comfortable losing.

Be your own bank, run your own node, build your own citadel... These are pie in the sky ideals.

Most people are going to STILL NEED BANKS.  Most people are going to find it best to hire professionals to safeguard their money.

Again, the revolution is not that you HAVE to take all this responsibility yourself... it is that you CAN.

Anyway.  Be careful out there fellow edge cutters.

And here's to the bull run that is still just barely getting cranked up!  I have a feeling in a year or so this is going to be a pretty smug group.

 

[Toxic2040]

-snippage of manywords-

If you conclude that I am being too pesky, then I will proclaim that "I am asking all of this for a friend."       

+1 WOsMerit


------

the noon wall report

a couple of charts with a couple of observations   

$10k boil achieved..simmer until al dente      this small correction was only obviously visible on the three hour chart     #dyor
3h


obviously things can be turned off or turned down...but when dealing with longer time frames..there is no switch to flip sometimes..trades sometimes having been set up months or years in advance need to unwind

the point being markets have inertia and at this particular juncture the inertia appears to be upwards
W

#stronghands

[serveria.com]

I am suspecting that you bought some cheap alt...confess 

Got some LTC around but no big numbers.

Wow it is going nuts.

Good news is, my acquisition cost is now near zero. Bad news is I own only a fraction of what I had before.

When the price is nearing 10k I guess good news isn't actually good. Send this to 100k and I can get myself a tesla.   To the moon!

I am not sad for selling actually. I am sad for buying too much and becoming overinvested. Hopefully a mistake that I won't repeat again. We are still the early adopters right? Right? 

Your acquisition cost is near zero because you have a near zero amount of Bitcoin. How can that be any good news?

I really still don't understand why you went all out and then started to DCA instead of just having left the intended (even if just 1BTC) amount in... anyways, if you are happier this way then it's all good. Stress is a huge killer.

I dunno man I stopped thinking about it. I want to stop thinking about it.

I had that pause before I clicked that sell button at that night but you know It was already decided what to do when I transferred the btc to the exchange.

Then I realized I managed to hodl all that time because I wasn't checking charts every day and wasn't investing heavily. When these 2 things changed, my stress levels started to increased in time. I used to sleep well because I knew I wasn't overinvested and if bitcoin just collapses I wouldn't lose much and again, that feeling wasn't there when it fell down to $3k...

It is one of these times you really see what you really want.

I was calculating my networth in btc rather than usd in the last 6 months but that drop put me back in my senses. I realized it is the Dollars I really want, not btc. Btc is just an asset for me to increase my dollar amounts. It is just another stock. Nothing wrong with that and as we have seen, it moves with the stock markets too.

Good, so I can invest in the US stocks without having to bother with all the paper work. That's good, I guess. (probably not for btc itself)

Damn if I were you I guess I'd just buy the most expensive gun I could afford with my remaining funds, golden bullets and then I'd just pull the trigger and send a bullet straight through my head... or less painful way: rebuy at ~$5-6-7k and become a millionaire within the next 12-24 months.

[Elwar]

A. Sweden disagrees
B. The actual fatality rate among infected is somewhere between 0,36 and 0,2 according to the latest studies in Europe.

Sweden has a Case Fatality Rate of 12.3%.  Obviously the real CFR is lower than that, but impossible to tell what it really is due to lack of testing.

Liechtenstein had a total lockdown and their deaths were only 2905 from COVID. So obviously total lockdown is the way to go considering the number of deaths is lower.

[Biodom]

The stock market is way too high right now.  

Here is the SPX500.  There is no justification for us to be sitting at October 2019 levels.  The market has gotten ahead of itself with the promise of reopening, not realising that reopening is going to see bad times.  The stock market "should" tank.  In writing this I acknowledge conventional wisdom is you should never fight the Fed.  So the market is going to swing on interpreting the Fed.

yea, but there is that pesky gap close to the top.
In one insane scenario that I am contemplating, we would close that gap before reversing to find a 'true' bottom.
It doesn't have to happen, but it usually does, especially in index charts.

[Hyperjacked]

Soon.....

 "soon" has already been happening

In other words, maybe I should speak with memes so my straight-forward message might MOAR better sink in.

This is what I am saying:



Makes sense?

Hate 2 admit it ... it makes sense 😀

It's all mathematics...

[JayJuanGee]

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked.  

I'm turning you in vapourminer.  

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

meh apparently im too stupid to post images right now i guess
https://imgflip.com/i/40r3ec

I am not sure why posting images does not work for you.  Probably you need to attend re-education, and get yourself out of distracted thinkenings...



Protip:  Start re-programming, now.   Better to get it out of the way early.

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked.  

I'm turning you in vapourminer.  

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

(Done, image uploaded for vapouminer)

You are enabling.

Re-education camp for you, too.. VB1001

[jojo69]

[Icygreen]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

[Toxic2040]

+1 WOsMerit

Its actually quite hard to 'stop' in space..a fact not wholly appreciated.



------

in other news..combat operations continue in the upper $9,000's with Bears gaining the upper hand in the short term today and pushing the Bulls away from ten thousand

we have unconfirmed video from the front lines brought to you by GAINZ CORP



 

[Cryptotourist]

I really despise putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though various aspects of the current path seems to be striving in that direction... whether purposeful or incidental.

Perhaps the word you are looking for, is "apocalyptic" scenarios - in the true sense of the word - which means to unveil/uncover/disclose.

 "soon" has already been happening

In other words, maybe I should speak with memes so my straight-forward message might MOAR better sink in.

This is what I am saying:



Makes sense?

Hate 2 admit it ... it makes sense 😀

It's all mathematics...

Confirmed?

[Globb0]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I

[rolling]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

[Cryptotourist]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

Exactly what Icygreen said it was. Protests around the world.
Billy doesn't like that.

[Elwar]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

Nothing to see here. Everyone is following government orders. Don't leave your house. Wear a mask in bed. Wash your hands.

[lightfoot]

I (if I controlled the government) would have done the same thing the government does during a bad flu season.

If I also controlled the government I would likely use the crisis as an opportunity to turn the health care system into a completely decentralized blockchain aided free market system.

If it was truly a bad pandemic people would be able to buy respirators (or 3D print their own), have a negative pressure room in their home/garage/basement, and AirBnB the hospital space. Uber Doctors and Nurses that come and check on patients and give monitoring advice to AirBnBs.

Elwar, if you were in control with the government this would never have been an issue. Heck if a fucking chicken had been in control this would probably have been a minor issue. The thing that really ticks me off is that this happened THREE times in the past.

• In 2002 we had the SARs epidemic. World governments worked together to contain and mitigate it, and the result was a minor issue with no recurrence.
• In 2011 we had the H5N1 nightmare. World governments tried to suppress, then because of me they worked together to identify and create vaccines for it. No problem.
• In 2012 we had the MERS epidemic. World governments worked together to contain and mitigate it, and the result was a minor issue with no recurrence.

Now in 2020 we have COVID/SARS. Same thing but this time world governments are all fighting with each other over pointless shit, did not work together, and the US government in particular not only did nothing but instead spread lies that allowed it to not be contained, to arrive on cruise ships released by fucking political pull, and spread like wildfire in the country.

As icing on the cake this moron leader disbanded the teams who knew how to work on this in 2018, ignored the runbooks, and put the president's moron son in charge of responses that were not only laughable but totally counterproductive.

Sorry. Those trillions of dollars down the drain is the complete and final responsibility of one Donald Trump and his less than worthless Rethuglican cronies. Their lies, inaction, and malicious response has directly cost this country trillions of dollars and as of this afternoon 78,397 dead people.

Yes, I do believe Elwar that you would have done a great job. Really, I do. But this is what the people of the US wanted, and this is what they get. They can deal with it.

[JayJuanGee]

Now my base cost near zero, I don't really care if it goes to zero. And that feeling is awesome. It would have been more awesome If I cashed %50 out at 10k instead of waiting for 4.5k but when you promote casinos in your signature for months, for years, it just gets into you.

I never did understand whats so wrong with promoting a casino?

Would you care to explain that to me and then explain why if it bothers you so much you lowered your values to the point of doing it when you had that stash already?

What's there to not understand, I wasn't investing in the last 4-5 months when I started to put big numbers. I started gambling. Those big btfd's wasn't in the original plan. I wasn't buying the fucking dips, I was killing myself.

At least you have a pretty decent grasp upon recognizing part of where you went wrong, and your tendency to devolve into too much of a gambling state... which partly is understandable.

So many of us were likely considering that the odds were pretty goddamned great that the bottom was in and that the BTC price would not go below something like $6k and even if it went down below $6k it would spike and end up back up again..... so there surely is something that makes sense that you started to engage in a kind of leveraging upon UP.

So, sure, it could be possible that you have an inability to control an internal (can we say gambling?) characteristic that you have.  So, I suppose part of the ability to attempt to fix such a problem is by recognizing the issue and working towards fixing it, and that is what you seem to be trying to do.

[JayJuanGee]

Since this time are more miners and future contracts, even if bitcoin falls under $5000 don`t will be there much time. The psychology of the market maybe will make that the people hodl, more time than other times. But if with this crisis  large reputed investors intereset in bitcoin like the case with Tudor, That will become a new resistance and also the use case that cryptocurrency is bringing all over the world. So I think the trick here is find the fundamental reisistance

Seems to me that when you use the word resistance, above, I think that you are meaning to use the word support.

When we refer to the lowest price that we believe the BTC price can go and it being held up by that, we are referring to support. 

When we refer to the highest price that we believe the BTC price can go and it being unable to go above that, we are referring to resistance.

[Toxic2040]

Nice capture of the protests building.  https://youtu.be/Ze1m8W12Bys?t=3062

What was it? Video has been removed for violating YouTube policies...

Nothing to see here. Everyone is following government orders. Don't leave your house. Wear a mask in bed. Wash your hands.