Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[heslo]

This is a food distribution center (bread line) in Las Vegas.



I have to note that every single car there is much nicer and newer than anything I own.

Hm.

A possible interpretation is that people who have otherwise led comfortable middle class lives their entire life are suddenly on the bread line through no fault of their own.

Or maybe they did overspend in the car (and presumably other things too) if they don't have enough savings for at least a few months.

In the USA, outside of the BIG cities, almost everyone owns a car, even poor people.  

Typically, a beaten up truck, NOT a LEXUS, and it is in the middle of the sin city, but i get your point...someone could be just one paycheck away from losing that vehicle to a repo-man.

If you need to buy a car with credit that's not the car you should be buying. You can buy perfectly nice and working used cars of any type just for a few thousands in cash. Even some mid-high end ones for a couple tens.

Almost the only thing reasonable to buy on credit is real estate... and that after careful planning and consideration.

And, as I said, someone that does that probably also overspend in many other things.

I don't think necessarily buying a car on credit is a bad thing. Every car I've bought apart from my first (which was just a regular shitter) has been on credit. It's having everything you "own" on credit when it all goes to tell. If I can't make a $100 payment for a car every week then there's something wrong. The problem is people think that for multiple items and all of a sudden they're paying $100 a week for 6 things and it just spirals from there

See? There's the problem. $100 a week are $400 a month. You can perfectly feed yourself and even cover some (if not all) of the basic survival needs with that amount. Yet people do decide to go ahead with that and then they need someone else to feed them? No, that is indeed BAD.

You (should) only use credit to SAVE (ie: to own a property instead of renting for the same monthly amount or even lower) not to SPEND more. Doing otherwise is nuts and usually the reason why people with a more than healthy income are constantly in the verge of bankruptcy.

As I said it's a slippery slope and needs balance. For me, $400 a month is nothing, I need to work one day a month and that's covered. It's when people stack multiple commitments when they come undone. You're right of course that most people can't help themselves and that's why we're in the mess we are.

When all these lockdowns started my wife lost her job so we lost her income. We were fine but a lot of her co-workers couldn't afford to even put food on their tables. They said we were lucky... and in a way we are. But it's more we're responsible; that's the key difference

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[bitserve]

As I said it's a slippery slope and needs balance. For me, $400 a month is nothing, I need to work one day a month and that's covered. It's when people stack multiple commitments when they come undone. You're right of course that most people can't help themselves and that's why we're in the mess we are.

When all these lockdowns started my wife lost her job so we lost her income. We were fine but a lot of her co-workers couldn't afford to even put food on their tables. They said we were lucky... and in a way we are. But it's more we're responsible; that's the key difference

Well, you are lucky, or more probably skilled, or whatever, to earn $400 for a day of work but, then, let me ask you... why do you need/want to buy a car on credit?

Also, as it is clear you won't have any problems with that standing liability, what interest do you pay for that credit? Because unless it is very near zero I still don't get why you do use credit when you could perfectly buy straight for a "discount".

And yeah, it is those people (your wife co-workers) what I am talking about. If you are rich enough or earn way more than your needs so no one will need to come in your financial rescue, then you can spend your money as you please (even on unnecessary credit). It is people that NEEDS credit who shouldn't be using it for (OVER)SPENDING but just for SAVING, otherwise they are just perpetuating their self-imposed "slavery".

[HairyMaclairy]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

[heslo]

As I said it's a slippery slope and needs balance. For me, $400 a month is nothing, I need to work one day a month and that's covered. It's when people stack multiple commitments when they come undone. You're right of course that most people can't help themselves and that's why we're in the mess we are.

When all these lockdowns started my wife lost her job so we lost her income. We were fine but a lot of her co-workers couldn't afford to even put food on their tables. They said we were lucky... and in a way we are. But it's more we're responsible; that's the key difference

Well, you are lucky, or more probably skilled, or whatever, to earn $400 for a day of work but, then, let me ask you... why do you need/want to buy a car on credit?

Also, as it is clear you won't have any problems with that standing liability, what interest do you pay for that credit? Because unless it is very near zero I still don't get why you do use credit when you could perfectly buy straight for a "discount".

And yeah, it is those people (your wife co-workers) what I am talking about. If you are rich enough or earn way more than your needs so no one will need to come in your financial rescue, then you can spend your money as you please (even on unnecessary credit). It is people that NEEDS credit who shouldn't be using it for (OVER)SPENDING but just for SAVING, otherwise they are just perpetuating their self-imposed "slavery".

The car is a 1.5% loan, it works out better for me to use my money on other things at that cheap rate. But yes as I said, you're totally right, those who need the credit and are overspending are just locking themselves into a constant state of being a debt slave. It's not nice, it downright sucks but unfortunately that's the world we live in. If we taught financial responsibility at schools perhaps this would be a far less common issue

[heslo]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  But saying 'increased case levels are just a result of increased testing levels' is not a positive answer because it assumes that things are worse than we currently know. 

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

I'd agree with everything posted except the last two paragraphs. I think (and hope) that we are much bigger than US demand by now. But only time will tell and if there's anything I've learnt from BTC over the years, it's once you think you've got it worked out... you don't

[HairyMaclairy]

if there's anything I've learnt from BTC over the years, it's once you think you've got it worked out... you don't

Amen to that.  Doesn't stop us trying though !

[heslo]

if there's anything I've learnt from BTC over the years, it's once you think you've got it worked out... you don't

Amen to that.  Doesn't stop us trying though !

That's half the fun isn't it!?!

[nutildah]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.488.17.pdf

Faketoshi had about BTC50 on Gox. Yep, definitely sounds like a creator of BTC who owns BTC1MM

Thanks for sharing this, I'm reading the whole thing. It's kind of dry -- the part you mentioned seems to be some of the only interesting stuff.

Craig had kept some of his - had - well, "some of it", I think he kept all of his bitcoin there...

Again, doesn't sound like something Satoshi would do... keep all his bitcoin on MtGOX...

[El duderino_]

Come on hairy grow a sack 

[random_australian]

I am going to post something quite unpopular.  It will make some people mad at me.  This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now.  I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.  

The US has dun goofed its coronavirus response.  The US locked down too slow, and now it is reopening up too fast.  With the exception of New York, case rates are still rising in every state.  Nebraska, which reopened on Monday, reported a 57% case rate rise in the past 7 days.  In saying this I acknowledge that testing levels are so low it is hard to work out what is really happening except we know there are superclusters at the meatworks which are not closing because they have been deemed essential.  

We have extremely bad economic data.  On some readings, the data is worse than the Great Depression.  This puts the political leadership at both State and Federal level under enormous pressure to reopen.  So I can understand why they are doing it, particularly given there is not the appetite for the social welfare schemes which have been rolled out in other countries to support workers staying in their jobs.

But know this.  By half-arsing the lockdown and pulling out too early, and then triggering a crushing second wave in late summer / early fall, the economy will get refucked.  The number one mistake is thinking that fighting the virus and supporting the economy are mutually opposed aims.  They aren't.  Crush the virus and you can have a thriving economy back.  Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.  Because when your hospitals overflow and your doctors are all dying and there are bodies in the street, there will not be a functioning economy.  Reopening now, before adequate testing and tracing is available, and while case loads are still rising, is an act of surrender.  

The consequences are not going to flow immediately.  Things are going to feel just fine through the next couple of months of summer.  It will be warm out.  People will say that the warm weather killed the virus.  Everyone will be outdoors, drinking beer and having a nice time.  Food and bev will start to do a roaring trade again.  People will think we are winning.  There will be cluster outbreaks which will be blamed on poor management by the Governors.  Some regional hospitals will be overwhelmed, but they will be a long way away.  

But come late summer or early fall, shit is going to start to become visibly bad.  We know the second wave of the Spanish Flu killed far more than the first wave.  195,000 Americans died of the Spanish Flu in the month of October 1918.  There are 328 million people in the US.  The Lancet estimates the Case Fatality Rate of coronavirus at 1.38%.  Australia's actual Case Fatality Rate is 1.33%, which is one of the lowest CFRs in the world, reflecting a world class health care which is not under stress and massive testing, increasing the size of the denominator.  If half of the US population catches coronavirus, and the CFR is optimistically 1.33%, then that is 4.3 million deaths across America.  If the hospitals collapse, the death toll has the potential to get much higher.  

I think the reality is we will not get there, and there will be a series of smaller state level, or town level lockdowns.  This rolling wave of small lockdowns will fuck the economy good and will spark open conflict between the White House and State / local government.  

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.  

I agree with almost all of that. The only thing I would say is wrong is what happens when the economy gets refucked. The end game for the current financial system should have been a decade away at least, but once the cascading defaults begin, there will be two options. Massive deflation, on a scale never before seen as the debt unwinds through default, or massive inflation as all the debt is printed to oblivion to avoid the deflation scenario. The people making the decisions know they are going to have to destroy both the dollar and the current monetary system. They all wish they could have kicked the can a little bit further so it was the next person who had to deal with it. But COVID has bought the whole clusterfuck to a head. Bitcoin will soar against a dollar that destroys itself, because it must be destroyed. The deflation scenario will be too terrifying for those in charge to contemplate. They will see their heads on spikes. Things are going to get very weird I think, it will probably be good for bitcoin, but it will be really fucked up in so many other ways we may not care as much as we think we will.

[heslo]

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.488.17.pdf

Faketoshi had about BTC50 on Gox. Yep, definitely sounds like a creator of BTC who owns BTC1MM

Thanks for sharing this, I'm reading the whole thing. It's kind of dry -- the part you mentioned seems to be some of the only interesting stuff.

Craig had kept some of his - had - well, "some of it", I think he kept all of his bitcoin there...

Again, doesn't sound like something Satoshi would do... keep all his bitcoin on MtGOX...

Exactly. That in itself is why it's so laughable that Craig claims he's Satoshi

[Tash]

.....

China was in lockdown for 16 Days (not Wuhan) and there was no need for it. Millions of commutes to all major citys including Beijing and Shanghai before anyone know of COVID or any bullshit test was available. Singapur, Belarus, Japan never locked down no, how crowded is Tokio.
Its a scamdemic and time to get satanist Bill and others in court.
If the fishtank is dirty and fish die you dont vaccinate the fish, clean the tank.

[Wekkel]

The whole story hangs on the notion that the virus is bad. Yes, it kills people. But is it a global pandemonium? Despite what the news wants to tell us, the jury is still out on that one

[HairyMaclairy]

Come on hairy grow a sack 

I'm not selling bro.  I'm postulating.  And putting my leveraged long entry points very deep. 

[HairyMaclairy]

.....

China was in lockdown for 16 Days (not Wuhan) and there was no need for it. Millions of commutes to all major citys including Beijing and Shanghai before anyone know of COVID or any bullshit test was available.

China also track and trace the fuck out of everyone.  You get measured your temperature everywhere 20 times per day.  You can't enter the mall without showing a government form on your phone that you are a coronavirus free.  They track and analyse your location constantly.  They have CCTV inside apartment hallways watching your door.  If you have a cough, they put you in a white van and you disappear.   It's not comparable.  

Also all Chinese statistics are bullshit and always have been.  It was that way when I was working there in the early 2000's.  They could bury 10 million people in a field and no one would know.  

[rolling]

The US populace is not going to have an appetite for another shutdown, especially when this virus is not the killer they thought it was. It's more like .1% not 1% given that they aren't doing widespread testing. They caught people off guard this time but the protesters and lawsuits will be ready if they try to shut us down again.

Remember, we have guns in this country and we won't be bullied by the government for too long. If that means 300,000 die, so be it. If you don't want to die from it, you stay home, you don't imprison a whole population. This is the American way whether people realize it or not.

Also, on the numbers, there is a financial incentive for US hospitals to inflate the numbers. Any death, regardless of the cause, is tested for Covid in order to get federal emergency funds by calling it a Covid death. The numbers are probably half which is a tiny number given the huge population and limited lock-downs.

Lifting the lock-downs is the right decision.

[El duderino_]

We maybe AYH this weekend

[bitcoinPsycho]

We maybe AYH this weekend

I like your way of thinking

[vapourminer]

so we should start practicing screaming like little girls?

oh shit.... your elaboration causes me to doubt proper attributes ....

since many of us realize that Searing has "screaming like a little girl" trademarked. 

I'm turning you in vapourminer. 

crap. caught plagiarizing already. ill never be a csw level faker at this rate.

apologies to brad

you gotta up your game.... I know I am borrowing a statement, too.... a just recently used one.  .. .but since you guys (and gal) are so witty, cannot help but to get influenced.

meh apparently im too stupid to post images right now i guess
https://imgflip.com/i/40r3ec

[NeuroticFish]

We maybe AYH this weekend

Naaah, that'll have to be around Christmas. Why break such wonderful tradition?