Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[machasm]

Us boomers got to stick together.

I never liked the term "boomer" as if everyone born between 1945 and 1963 was a member of the same cohort just because they were all products of the postwar economic boom. Yeah, our parents may have all decided to have a zillion kids at the same time (after the Great Depression and WW2 could you blame them?) but really it was 2 distinct groups:
_____

I was a member of the first group, those born in the 1940s and very early 1950s. When I was a kid we still had horse-drawn daily delivery wagons in the city, bringing us our milk, bread, ice, and coal. More people still had iceboxes than refrigerators and more people shoveled coal into their furnaces than had thermostatically-controlled gas or oil. A wringer washing machine was a modern labor-saving device. Many people still used washboards. Public transit was mostly streetcars.

We had no running hot water. On bath night my father would light a gas water heater to warm our bathwater. When my mother did dishes or laundry, she heated water in a big kettle on the kitchen stove. She dissolved ends of bar soap in the dish pan with a metal cage thingy with a handle because they didn't sell liquid dish soap yet.

After dinner, we'd sit around the floor-model vacuum tube radio (no permanent-magnet speakers: a speaker had a voice coil and a field coil) and listen to radio shows like Amos and Andy or The Lone Ranger. Phonograph records were 78 RPM and made of shellac. Most people who had record players had wind-up acoustic phonographs. My father was a classical music collector so he had a electric turntable with a piezoelectric cartridge that you mounted metal needles into with a thumbscrew. It connected to the radio. When the first TV arrived on our block it was quite the novelty. All the neighbors came around to look at the tiny round screen reflected in a mirror because the CRT was mounted vertically. Music was still mostly crooners and big bands.

We bought our meat at a butcher shop, our produce from a greengrocer, and what baked goods that weren't homemade came from a bakery. Cheese was cut and weighed by the piece, also by the butcher.
_____

By the mid-1950s everything seemed to change. Everybody had a fridge, hot water, an automatic washing machine (and dryer) and a thermostat. All the horses and many of the streetcars were replaced by internal combustion engines. Supermarkets replaced specialized food shops. Foods were pre-wrapped and packaged.

Television ruled. Radios were relegated to music and to a small degree, talk. TV commercials effected how people shopped, ate, clothed themselves and went about their daily lives. The propaganda was relentless. McCarthyism gave us a new enemy to hate and fear. It wasn't the Gerrys and Japs anymore. It was the Commies.

As the decade went on, transistors started replacing vacuum tubes and vinyl replaced shellac. Rock&roll replaced swing and new attitudes arose. It was OK to have fun and be sexy again, just like during the roaring '20s before the Depression and the war made everybody miserable and security-conscious.

Anyone who wanted a job could get one and everyone seemed to have lots of money. A guy with an average job could afford to own a home, a cottage, a stay-at-home wife, 3 or 4 kids, a new car every 3 years, and still be able to save enough to send his kids to college.

The "boomers" born in these times were a completely different cohort from the "boomers" of the 1940s.
_____

Modern generational divisions are usually based on technological or social differences. GenXers are those who came after the cultural upheaval of the early 1960s with the Kennedy assassination and the emergence of the counterculture. The Millennials are defined by growing up with the internet. GenZ by life-long internet access and post 9/11 oppression. Gen Alpha by social media.

The early and late Boomers, however, get lumped together despite major societal and technological changes in the 1950s simply because of their numbers, which has more to do with their parents than them.

Well I was born on the other end of the scale in 1963 and had my early years in London where my parents were still living with my grandmother. I remember having baths which were filled using a kettle boiled on the stove in a freezing iron large bowl in a single glass paned washroom. Though my pre teen years we moved to a suburb of Melbourne in Aus and things were pretty rustic there too with a chemical toilet in the "dunny" out in the back yard which needed emptying by some poor bloke who came round once a week to replace it with an empty one.
Admittedly we did have the luxury of a black and white TV but since there were only a couple of channels with hardly anything a kid would want to watch I spent a lot of my time outside exploring the outback.
I had a whale of a time! Felt great to be left alone and be truly free to muck about with my mates catching lizards, going fishing or just riding our bikes till we were exhausted.
So maybe it was different to your experience but I wouldn't change it for the world.

[fillippone]

Very interesting tweet from @loop based on @coinmetrics

The amount of BTC held by BitMEX and Bitfinex has reached new lows following the March 12th crash. Bitfinex now holds 93.8K BTC, down from 193.9k on March 13th. BitMEX’s BTC supply is now down to 216.0K BTC, down from a peak of 315.7K on March 13th. H/T @coinmetrics

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1260189246511513601?s=21

The mid March market crash scared the traders, not the holders. He who wanted to gamble their funds, kept them on hot wallet on the exchanges (those are the traders). They lost their funds towards the holders. The holders, being savvy and knowing that “not your keys, not your bitcoin”, withdrew their funds from the exchanges.

[jojo69]

this just in

Proudhon cures Covid!

https://www.sciencealert.com/llama-blood-could-play-a-role-in-helping-people-fight-off-coronavirus-infections

[DaRude]

If they print tether out of thin air and don't actually have the USD reserves, wouldn't that be just like printing USD out of thin air?

If tether is outed as a scam, wouldn't peopl just sell as much tether as they could for BTC? How would that make BTC dump?

"Tether is a scam so I'm going to sell Bitcoins for tether.." I don't think so..

If a scam came out wouldn't people just be dumping tether for BTC, WDing, and running away with whatever they could?

I don't see how this printing of tether is a bad thing for BTC..

They are just printing more buy orders for BTC, and if it turns out to be a scam, Wouldn't it all just get dumped for BTC?

How does a scam in tether hurt BTC? Wouldn't it just reinforce the fact that Bitcoin is scure, and other shitcoins like centralized tether are not secure or safe compared to Bitcoin?

You are correct that tether going down doesn't directly impact BTC.

But indirectly, Tether and Finex have the same owners, so if Tether will go down expect it to take Finex down with it. People loosing $6B in tethers and another exchange going down is not good publicity and will not raise confidence. As i understand it, tethers are used for arbitrage between exchanges, and speculation. Tethers going down will take a lot of liquidity from BTC as people would have to either keep money on exchanges or wait for wires to clear when they want to buy.

Tether is the weakest link and a prime target, so it's not a matter of if Tether will go down but a matter of when, the sooner it happens the better.

[vapourminer]

Some of us, surely need to work on our brains, first. 

1st?

my few remaining brain cells laugh in your general direction.


hahahahahbbpppftt

[DaRude]

this just in

Proudhon cures Covid!

https://www.sciencealert.com/llama-blood-could-play-a-role-in-helping-people-fight-off-coronavirus-infections

Heard Proudhon confirmed it

[JimboToronto]

this just in

Proudhon cures Covid!

https://www.sciencealert.com/llama-blood-could-play-a-role-in-helping-people-fight-off-coronavirus-infections

Llama? Alpaca? Ahhh... who cares?

[STT]

It appears there's about 3300metric tons of gold mined each year, that translates to about global supply of 9metric tons/per day. In comparison, if you have BTC3.5 in about 30yrs you'll own daily global supply of BTC.

The strange thing about the gold supply is that it has risen gigantically in the last century as industrial process and engines have helped achieved great advances in earth moving, add that to other advances already in play prior and the spread of humans to previously unmined locations and the supply is enough to drop the price but the opposite happened and price has always kept up with the various cash measures for it, price appearing to rise.   One reason is human population growth at the same time has risen massively which means we do have more people to buy or use gold but I think gold has just proven itself useful and worthy of holding for tradable value at least long term.   If governments were doing a good job they would make this value more even and viable to their populations to provide stability for domestic and business growth but they dont.  We've come up with our own alternatives like crypto but both give a similar purpose to avoid politics manipulation and failings towards people savings.
There is about enough gold for 3 rings for each person on earth apparently,  most have none I think.

BTC price recovered the 2 day average today, confirmed it as a low a few times and now has 9200 as a larger target overhead.

[JimboToronto]

get off Jimbo's lawn

LOL I haven't had a lawn since the 1970s.

Lived in houses downtown most of my life with zero lawns. At one time a quarter century ago, I owned 3 houses and no lawns.

Last time I had a lawn was when I made the mistake of living in the burbs for a couple of years. Never mowed it. Pissed the neighbors off. Someone murdered the beautiful thistle that was its crowning glory. Always wanted to plant more dandelions to beautify it. That would've really pissed them off.

I could never understand why people wanted boring plain green single-species lawns. Why not just get astroturf? Save a lot of time, money and headaches.

If I had a lawn, anybody could feel free to walk all over it. Just don't step on my blue suede shoes.

[d_eddie]

Vegetation phase again?

[jojo69]

Vegetation phase again?

put it in the light dep

[JayJuanGee]

Tether is the weakest link and a prime target, so it's not a matter of if Tether will go down but a matter of when...

Let me, for a second, go along with your presumption that bitcoin is vulnerable to losing value because tether is propping up its price too much by causing more liquidity than what would otherwise be present.
 That is a pretty BIG presumption.. but let's just accept such presumption as a given.

Then...

What if Tether goes down in 50 years?  Why the fuck should we care?

Let's make it a shorter period of time.  What if it goes down in 10 years?  That is still pretty far into the future too.

No, no, no... you are presuming Tethers impeding death... because regulators have been going after it for years and years... therefore, it must be impending to die sooner than 50 years, right?

It could go any minute, right?

That's what she said.

[JayJuanGee]

Some of us, surely need to work on our brains, first. 

1st?

my few remaining brain cells laugh in your general direction.


hahahahahbbpppftt

I think that I get your point.

There are some of us who have been working on a our brains for a damned long time, and we have to work on making sure that we can get our bodies from point A to point B.

Fair enough.. fair enough.

We also have to make sure that we do not get the corona virus.  O.k. boomer.  Or should we change the expression... o.k. Jim.   

[JSRAW]

~snip~

Nice read Jimbo..

-----
@infofront new poll?

ChartsBTC Update.

The 3rd #bitcoin halving cycle is complete Cara de festejo
Genesis $0
1st Halving $12
2nd Halving $658
3rd Halving $8,572

[img width:100]https://i.imgur.com/r0kCezf.png[/img]

Source: https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1260230406835630084

More beautiful charts..

Dude went gaga on charts.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1260248990999699457?s=19


https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1260257580502278145?s=19

#bitcoin went up 13x from halving to halving.  

$8,572 3rd halving / $658 2nd halving = 13x

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1260262087244144640?s=09


https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1260272677236772864?s=09

Whats next...?? With in 2 year
8572 * 7x  = $60,004  
8572 * 10x= $85,720
Or Biiiiiggg rally?

[jbreher]

More to the point: Requiring the wearing of masks is like requiring the wearing of pants. Sorry, otherwise you smear your shit everywhere you sit, thus society requires pants. You exhale virus particles and infect others so society requires masks.

Which, of course, is why it is mandatory, under penalty of fine and imprisonment, to swaddle your fur baby in Doggie Diapers^[tm] whenever they are outside your home.

 

[JayJuanGee]

Whats next...?? With in 2 year
8572 * 7x  = $60,004  
8572 * 10x= $85,720
Or Biiiiiggg rally?

Well, if you are looking at the BTC price at the time of the halvening, then the BTC price at the time of the next halvening, could be interesting... and that could reasonably end up landing somewhere in the 7x to 10x arena as you indicated, and seems really difficult to know where the BTC price might land in 4 years, and where it might land in 2 years or within the peak of the next price run (if we get one) is another question.

Seems to me that the range in which BTC prices might peak in two years or less (perhaps 18 months) would likely have a much broader range of possibilities that are greater than 7x to 10x.

So if we remember the BTC price from the 2016 halvening (yeah its in your charts as mid $600s), then calculating from that jumping off point to the next high of about $19,666 in December 2017 (about 18 months later), we got about a 30x price increase.

Let's hope that we do not get a 30x BTC price increase from this 2020 halvening in around 18 months because we would all be too stressed out by going up that greatly, correct?  

$8,572 x 30 = $257,160 .  Those levels of BTC prices would be tough to deal with, right JSRAW?  

That is why you had proposed a 7x to 10x BTC price increase range in order that we will feel MOAR better, and not become tooooooo cittttteeeeee?  you are saving us from ourselves? right JSRAW?   

[Hueristic]

[jbreher]

too... many... pages....

must... keep... going...

[jojo69]

we are confident you will soldier through

[JSRAW]

Whats next...?? With in 2 year
8572 * 7x  = $60,004  
8572 * 10x= $85,720
Or Biiiiiggg rally?

Well, if you are looking at the BTC price at the time of the halvening, then the BTC price at the time of the next halvening, could be interesting... and that could reasonably end up landing somewhere in the 7x to 10x arena as you indicated, and seems really difficult to know where the BTC price might land in 4 years, and where it might land in 2 years or within the peak of the next price run (if we get one) is another question.

Yeah, Halving closed price range is landmark..
Hard to tell where it might land in next 4 years but if we look at last 2 halving closing price range, then it could give us some roadplan for speculation

2nd halving ($658)
3rd halving ($8572)

13x difference, so if we take this as a benchmark or speculate from here then it put us around $111,436 by the end of the 4th halving.

Seems to me that the range in which BTC prices might peak in two years or less (perhaps 18 months) would likely have a much broader range of possibilities that are greater than 7x to 10x.

So if we remember the BTC price from the 2016 halvening (yeah its in your charts as mid $600s), then calculating from that jumping off point to the next high of about $19,666 in December 2017 (about 18 months later), we got about a 30x price increase.

Holy cow 30x.. Everyone would like to see that happening. BTW do you really think that there is big possibility of another parabolic run similar to last one in short period of time? I can live with that if there is even 1% chance.

Let's hope that we do not get a 30x BTC price increase from this 2020 halvening in around 18 months because we would all be too stressed out by going up that greatly, correct?

$8,572 x 30 = $257,160 .  Those levels of BTC prices would be tough to deal with, right JSRAW?  

That is why you had proposed a 7x to 10x BTC price increase range in order that we will feel MOAR better, and not become tooooooo cittttteeeeee?  you are saving us from ourselves? right JSRAW?   

Perhaps, Some of us might get panic attack if its happens..    

But i just don't want to jinx anything even in speculation . Will celebrate the victory when we cross the finish line. Till then i am keeping my head down and stacking Sats.