Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Raja_MBZ]

@nutildah, that's an awesome avatar.

[1714678249]

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[1714678249]

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[1714678249]

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[1714678249]

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[nutildah]

@nutildah, that's an awesome avatar.

Thanks! @xtraelv made it for me.

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1264491582289375232

1. I consider all those little fuckers and all the other altcoiners to be scammers. The altcoin experiment failed, and bitcoin can absorb any of their 'features' if necessary. They now exist purely to take people's bitcoin away by subterfuge. It's a finite resource; once it's gone it's very hard to get any more back.

2. I find these repetitive, variation on a theme memes to be like pornography. I need new and different all the time, otherwise I can't raise a smile.

i especially like ver in that cardboard tank. lol

[Arriemoller]

Sunday afternoon dump.
Nine thousand just keep coming back.

[VB1001]

^
Is the recovery going well, Arri?

[Toxic2040]

the morning wall report


Another rejection at $9.25k has bitcoin looking for support at $9k levels again. Testing lower monthly lows seems likely as we get ready to move into the last week of trading for May.

1h



4h

[El duderino_]

Sunday bummer

Pizza is getting cheap, buy them while you can only .xxxxxxxxbtc for a slice

[jojo69]

the beatings will continue

[Globb0]

Lockdown is numbing
Every day is Sunday
Thank fuck there's Bitcoin

5 days a week I have been sat in front of a computer from 8 in case my boss wanted something. Monday the true monotony begins.

All I have left is cooking for the family and shopping for that food.

Sheesh

[ivomm]

Fake dump. Next week->10K!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

My thoughts are more about seeking a probably 'bottom' in technical indicators. While TA is generally not lauded in this thread, I do think technical indicators can give indications of tops/bottoms. It's all about finding probable setups.

Largely agreeing with the analysis of your earlier post, but just want to respond to the above portion.

I believe that the initial OP of this thread was largely welcoming of TA, and even had a kind of preference that BTC price speculation should be backed up by more than non-substantiated assertions.

Of course, thread culture kind of evolved, and frequently we are not really posting TA, but even aside from the broad topicality of this thread, I would not conclude that many of us don't respect TA, but instead some of us, including yours truly, have become somewhat hostile to nonsubstantiated BTC price assertions, especially when they are prognosticating for down.

Yeah, I said it, we have a biasness for up, and I have no real problems with that on a personal level, and maybe it is largely an overreaction to the beartrolls and shills - who surely tend to take decent beatings in this thread in recent times, and not going to get any sympathy from me for anyone devolving into something that smells or a beartroll or a shill.

I believe that in recent times, I have warmed up to some kinds of TA, and I will admit that I did edit my earlier post several times to tone down some of my hostility towards your assertion that some down BTC price might be in the cards.

My actual hostility towards TA has frequently revolved around what I perceive to be too much assurity (confidence) assigned to squiggly lines drawn on a chart.  Like you said, maybe a lot of the times we might be floating around in a kind of 50/50 level of confidence regarding which way that we believe that the BTC price is going to go in the short term, but some chart indications are going to tip the balance to cause greater degrees of confidence that cause short and medium terms to no longer be 50/50 and the further we move off 50/50, the more confidence that we can have to bet in the direction that favors our leanings.

So, yeah in my thinking sometimes charts could provide something approaching 70% probabilities in a certain timeline, but I personally might not agree or understand the chart, and I might not be willing to move very far off of 50/50, and maybe I understand a bit of it, but I only assign 58% to such direction, which does not motivate me to make any changes, but the one who understands and recognizes the 70% is motivated to make some "calculated bets" as you deem them, and over time, the multiple bets would likely cause the one who is calculating better to have more profits as long as s/he is not betting beyond what the TA is able to accurately tell him/her and accounting for the unknowns, too.   

So, yeah, I become a bit irritated by either assignments that are too high, and surely, for clarity of my above hypothetical, I am granting that there might be some scenarios that actually show 70% probability, which I would argue is a rare fucking set of circumstances, even though there are frequently posters who are either assigning that level of probability or even higher levels of confidence to areas that are quite unknown and then they promote theirselves as a genius if they end up being correct - which ended up being way more luck than they were willing to admit.

Many times, the TA is not going to be giving high levels of confidence, but it could create some edge, as you mentioned.

By the way, even though I was kind of fighting you in my earlier post, I do recognize that even if the $3,850 from March 12 was filled with a lot of bullshit and a lot of probable manipulation, we have not had too many corrections on our way back to $10k, so when we bounce around and have difficulties breaking up, at a certain point, down just starts to seem easier.. so we surely have to accept that if whales are able to muster up some coins (and maybe even some spreading of FUD or whatever) to get the BTC price to go back down, they are not going to let such opportunities go to waste.. and just allow regular dip buyers to get 150% profits without any check... and without trying to incentivize some of them to lock in their profits, even if such "lock-in" ends up taking place at a much lower level... which means scaring those March 12 dip buyers to sell (or skim off) their BTC on the way down.

[VB1001]

Every day I like this thread more, it is one of the best things I have found on the Internet.

StrongHats

[Biodom]

Are we safe in our holding cell?
Are we safe in our citadel?
Asks KGATLW..

Enjoy, if you can.

Crumbling Castle

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1264491582289375232

1. I consider all those little fuckers and all the other altcoiners to be scammers. The altcoin experiment failed, and bitcoin can absorb any of their 'features' if necessary, or just bung things on Layer 2 to play with. They now exist purely to take people's bitcoin away by subterfuge. It's un-brr-able, a finite resource; once it's gone it's very hard to get any more back.

2. I find these repetitive, variation on a theme memes to be like pornography. I need new and different all the time, otherwise I can't raise a ... smile.

edited

Don't get me wrong. I am NO shitcoin enthusiast, and during a large portion of our 2018/2019 flushing out of weakhands from bitcoin, and even though the shitcoin correction tended to be greater than bitcoin's, I still had tentatively conjectured that there is likely going to be at least one more shitcoin season.

Of course, more and more confidence might be drawn away from shitcoins, and if they would hurry up with their ethereum 2.0, then that will likely show a lot more lack of there, there, but I still have troubles writing off the shitcoins from having another pumpening.. even though I certainly would not be bothered if they don't.

Another reason for this particular post relates to your changed avatar.  For some reason, I had not even thought about stock 6-door station wagons, and when I googled it, I had not realized that there had been quite a few of them from different car makers.. limited edition, but still.  Surely, any of those 6-door station wagons would be collectors items if you had a garage big enough to store one of them... Interesting to drive around from time to time, too, when you are feeling like having a lot of passengers, whether adults, kids or a combo.

[Globb0]

Stretched x or y cars are good for hire purposes mainly.

I don't think many just sit in a garage

[JayJuanGee]

Hertz has filed for Chapter 11

Damn. And Rickards told me to short _Avis_. Oh well.

If you are short on something and it folds? do you lose anyway?

I can never remember which it is but longs or shorts you have to make a buy to exit at market price? or both

Forgive my lack of comprehension. I probably read it here over the years and lost the fine detail.

1.  When you are short, you sell for $X and hope to rebuy it at a lower price.  Your profit is $X - your buy price - fees and charges.  

2. If you are short something and it folds, then it is complicated because you have sold it and still have the obligation to buy it.  It may have a zero value but if it is suspended from trading then you can’t buy it.  Which is awkward.  So unfortunately the answer is “it depends” on the terms of the trade you entered into which is probably set out in the Exchange rules.  This is a trap for young players.

I am no expert about any of this, either, which is maybe causing me to be overly confused by your explanation 2.

Let's stay with the example of a short, for now:  I thought that Globb0 was suggesting a situation in which a trader wants to get out of short prior to getting force out of it (presumably a trader gets forced out when the BTC price moves too far up before the trader can close the position).

So, for the sake of attempting to learn MOAR better (hypothetical) let's also assume some terms of a recent BTC trade, let's say on May 21, a trader was convinced that BTC prices were going down to below $8,500 or lower before the BTC price goes above $9,200, so that trader enters a fairly aggressive position to short 1BTC at $8,800-ish, with a plan to close that short at around $8,500 - but will be willing to ride out such short under certain circumstances or to close such short earlier if the BTC price does not reach $8,500 as expected.  So the level of confidence causes the shorter to leverage in such a way that he would be forced to close his short at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC- so feeling some confidence that he has a cushion between $9,200 and $9,300 because he does not expect the BTC price to go above $9,200 before it at least goes down to $8,500.

The BTC price ends up moving against this trader's short, and on May 23, he gets nervous that he is going to be forced to close at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC, so instead he manually closes the short at $9,250.  I am thinking that he just closes and loses most of his position but not all of it.  Maybe he loses 80% rather than 100%?  Globb0 seemed to have been asking whether the trader has to buy into the trade to close early, but I am thinking that the trader had already put up all of the collateral that he needed, so if he decides to close early, it is just a matter of where he closes that determines how much he is going to lose, but he does not have to put any more BTC into his trade because whatever he does is already been put up as collateral.

My whole point in bringing this up, Hairy, is because I thought that your answer was only addressing the more extreme situation of being forced out of the position when I thought that Globb0 was trying to explore the extent of the negative impact on a trader (or perhaps if a trader could save himself some money) when the trader decides to close out early rather than being forced out of his position.

[Biodom]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

[Globb0]

Hertz has filed for Chapter 11

Damn. And Rickards told me to short _Avis_. Oh well.

If you are short on something and it folds? do you lose anyway?

I can never remember which it is but longs or shorts you have to make a buy to exit at market price? or both

Forgive my lack of comprehension. I probably read it here over the years and lost the fine detail.

1.  When you are short, you sell for $X and hope to rebuy it at a lower price.  Your profit is $X - your buy price - fees and charges.  

2. If you are short something and it folds, then it is complicated because you have sold it and still have the obligation to buy it.  It may have a zero value but if it is suspended from trading then you can’t buy it.  Which is awkward.  So unfortunately the answer is “it depends” on the terms of the trade you entered into which is probably set out in the Exchange rules.  This is a trap for young players.

I am no expert about any of this, either, which is maybe causing me to be overly confused by your explanation 2.

Let's stay with the example of a short, for now:  I thought that Globb0 was suggesting a situation in which a trader wants to get out of short prior to getting force out of it (presumably a trader gets forced out when the BTC price moves too far up before the trader can close the position).

So, for the sake of attempting to learn MOAR better (hypothetical) let's also assume some terms of a recent BTC trade, let's say on May 21, a trader was convinced that BTC prices were going down to below $8,500 or lower before the BTC price goes above $9,200, so that trader enters a fairly aggressive position to short 1BTC at $8,800-ish, with a plan to close that short at around $8,500 - but will be willing to ride out such short under certain circumstances or to close such short earlier if the BTC price does not reach $8,500 as expected.  So the level of confidence causes the shorter to leverage in such a way that he would be forced to close his short at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC- so feeling some confidence that he has a cushion between $9,200 and $9,300 because he does not expect the BTC price to go above $9,200 before it at least goes down to $8,500.

The BTC price ends up moving against this trader's short, and on May 23, he gets nervous that he is going to be forced to close at $9,300 and lose his whole BTC, so instead he manually closes the short at $9,250.  I am thinking that he just closes and loses most of his position but not all of it.  Maybe he loses 80% rather than 100%?  Globb0 seemed to have been asking whether the trader has to buy into the trade to close early, but I am thinking that the trader had already put up all of the collateral that he needed, so if he decides to close early, it is just a matter of where he closes that determines how much he is going to lose, but he does not have to put any more BTC into his trade because whatever he does is already been put up as collateral.

My whole point in bringing this up, Hairy, is because I thought that your answer was only addressing the more extreme situation of being forced out of the position when I thought that Globb0 was trying to explore the extent of the negative impact on a trader (or perhaps if a trader could save himself some money) when the trader decides to close out early rather than being forced out of his position.

No I wasn't saying exit early. it was an question about the absolute. You come to exit but you cant

[Globb0]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

So the opposite side still gets screwed

My thoughts were specifically around an asset heading to zero I suppose

[Biodom]

In US, it is relatively easy. Typically, bankrupt company still trades with a different stock symbol, so you can still close the short, and if it is not traded, then you can still effectively "close" it once it becomes "worthless entity", might take some time, though. The best scenario is when it still trades at a few cents as a bankrupt entity. However, you NEVER "lose" when you are short and company goes bankrupt.

So the opposite side still gets screwed

My thoughts were specifically around an asset heading to zero I suppose

Of course, for longs in an equity bankruptcy typically means prices close to zero, eventually hitting that zero when it is declared a "worthless entity".
For bondholders, chapter 11 means some recovery, typically in the 30% range, sometimes more, sometimes less. Very often, their bonds will get converted into newly emerged company (Newco) equity, so eventually, prior bondholders can even make some money, but it would require time.