Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[soullyG]

ACAB

There is no need for this here, brother. The world is a nuanced ball of shit right now. There are indeed many good officers out there that are being sullied by actions of the bad.

Thanks for the reminder Bob, I had been watching all the videos of the US protests and was feeling a bit disenchanted with the world. I do hope this crazy year spurs on some kind of change for the better, because I'm not sure how much more we can take before sliding into an orwellian dystopia..

edit: aw shucks, thanks all. Something a little inspiring to lighten the mood:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ayizzcv-NCE

[Biodom]

Exactly, Mark gives absolutely no evidence or even detailed opinion to support why it's "not fungible" and "can't be a replacement for the current system."

Just open blockchain explorer. You will see then why Bitcoin is not fungible.

I hate it when people make broad statements like this and just walk away.

Care to explain what you mean in more detail?

Every Bitcoin have whole history written in it. On what wallet it was and with what other coins was in other wallets. It is the same as we would have a dollar bill and on back of the bill would be written who own them all the way back from when they come from FED printers room. That is not fungible. Fungible is gold that you can at anytime melt into new ingot or coin and no one have any ideas in what shape that gold were in past and who owned it.

Cuban is extremely smart guy and totally get crypto.

$ in your bank account are not truly fungible by this description too. If you wouldn't need to pay taxes on small tx (de minimis carveout that we don't have yet), then most users wouldn't care much about the lack of fungibility. Also, it seems that bitcoin's fungibility is a feature that could be solved by a software update, but I am not sure if we even need this for 99.9% cases.
That said, I am curious about what Wyoming did with regards to bitcoin (title, etc.) It would come handy if and when people would start borrowing serious money (in $$) against their btc (without selling it).

[LUCKMCFLY]

An interesting fact to keep in mind, the Bitcoin market always gives unpredictable things...

The Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin (9706.63 USD) is now 1.2.
It has historically been higher than today's value 42.95% of the time.
The average historical value is 1.36.
Get real-time data and more information on https://mayermultiple.info

Source: https://twitter.com/MultipleMayer/status/1269389111661604865

[Syke]

Just open blockchain explorer. You will see then why Bitcoin is not fungible.

Bitcoin is fungible. Any wallet can send/receive bitcoins to/from any other wallet. Any sort of "unfungibility" is outside the bitcoin protocol.

[jojo69]

[Torque]

Exactly, Mark gives absolutely no evidence or even detailed opinion to support why it's "not fungible" and "can't be a replacement for the current system."

Just open blockchain explorer. You will see then why Bitcoin is not fungible.

I hate it when people make broad statements like this and just walk away.

Care to explain what you mean in more detail?

Every Bitcoin have whole history written in it. On what wallet it was and with what other coins was in other wallets. It is the same as we would have a dollar bill and on back of the bill would be written who own them what random anonymous wallet id contained them all the way back from when they come from FED printers room.

FTFY. Doesn't ID the person behind the wallets. And also here's the thing about that "feature"...

[infofront]

I would prefer an opaque blockchain. Privacy and fungibility are pretty important aspects for a currency - especially a blockchain-based one where the entire history of every unit is public knowledge otherwise.

[Ibian]

I would prefer an opaque blockchain. Privacy and fungibility are pretty important aspects for a currency - especially a blockchain-based one where the entire history of every unit is public knowledge otherwise.

Agreed, but there are also advantages. The fact that bitcoin can technically be tracked will make it easier for our authoritarian overlords to permit its use. And it makes it easier to serve as proof of payment in legal disputes.

[xhomerx10]

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years

30 years?

I’ll be in my 60’s or dead.

In that case we millennial need some lessons from JimboToronto, he seems to figured it out some stuff and ticking all the right boxes. Bad boys don't die that early anyways so don't you worry.

BTW I was being generous with the 30 year timeline in context of world reserve currency.

Jimbo is a boomer. He complains about being lumped in with those "other" boomers of a slightly different age, yet says not a word about the taxes they have imposed on all of us. Boomers are inherently narcissistic. Look elsewhere for answers.

 What does JimboToronto have to do with the taxes you pay in Scandanvia?  The social safety net in Nordic countries is unparalleled in the rest of the world!  Your high taxes are a result of your desire for comfort.  Jimbo lives in the jungle and covers his own medical costs.  You're barking up the wrong tree man.

[OROBTC]

It has been a strange and awful year.  And likely to get stranger still, perhaps with a very hard landing in our economy and COVID again.  Will they lock us down again?  Something for sure will come up to stymie us and Trump (and Europe too I would guess). 


I have no idea what, but something wicked walks this way.


Even if you play everything right, bad things can happen.

[heslo]

I am back in the 100 million club.

May I post again? 

Welcome back! Although I question your timing. Better late than never I guess!

[Arriemoller]

I'm selling everything in the next FOMO top, in Q4 2021.
For two reasons, I want to square everything with the taxman, I bought small amounts a gazillion times in 2013 and 2014 and need to get that straightened out. I also need some life changing money in my life.
So, 30% goes to the taxman, the rest will be divided in two equal sums, one for me to do what I want with, and one that will be put in something that pays a good interest. After a year that sum will be used to buy back bitcoins since the bottom comes almost exactly a year after the top, at least it has the last two times.
And then I will be 100% in bitcoin again for three years when the next top comes and I repeat.

[lightfoot]

Well, I went to a local protest.... 60 people or so.

Everyone was wearing a mask
I stayed 6 feet away from anyone
I wore a normal mask not a respirator
  Figured if everyone was wearing it would be safe if not I would leave immediately.
  Outdoors
  6 feet distance possible
  Stayed an hour
  didn't touch anyone or their stuff.

We'll see if I come down with anything. More risk than normal but time to roll dice a bit. But it was pretty nice to see people. No violence, no big deal, no problems, cop drove by once and waved.

There you go. Going to a major protest with people without masks there would be insane in my opinion right now. But people choose their risks and it looks like a lot of idiots out there.

[infofront]

I recall reading a while back that there were no documented cases of transmission outdoors. That was probably 2-3 months ago though.

[JayJuanGee]

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years

Let's not fool ourselves. Bitcoin will no longer be in 20 years from now. In a world where ecological awareness is growing everyday, the idea that Bitcoin, a disaster for the environment, will still be there is very naive.

For now I love trading it, and plan to buy 2 more BTC at 5k soon, to sell 100% of it at the next bubble top (85k) that should occur before 2025 (and this answers the poll's question too)   but Bitcoin in 20 years? Dream on my friend.

Even the most voracious financiers of London's square mile agree that a greener world is the only way (source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWdL5VtFCxQ ). Bitcoin will be among the first to fall. 2020 is showing already that a new world is coming, and that will be without Bitcoin.

We will be lucky enough if we can cash out at 85k in the next four or five years my dear friends.

One of the most idiotic posts I've ever seen.

Either Bossian does not understand either bitcoin or the world, or he is just trolling us with his bullshit pie in the sky wishful thinking scenario. 

I am thinking that probably the latter is more likely.  Even though i find him to be annoying, ultimately he does not seem to be that dumb; he merely appears to be someone who is purposefully posting illogical, inconsistent gobbledy-gook that is meant merely to either misinform or to incite.

[JayJuanGee]

I was going to put 0% in the survey, but I thought I would sell 10% to take advantage of the volatility and would buy back in case a colossal offer came up without warning. It wouldn't be a bad idea to leverage 10% (long) if the price goes down.

 It's somethings...

Have you been in bitcoin for longer than your registration time on the forum?  

You registered your account on the forum towards the top of the 2017 BTC price rise, so maybe you have not been able to accumulate a lot of BTC prior to that 2017 BTC price rise?  

And, then if you were still trying to figure out the difference between bitcoins and shitcoins, then those kinds of learnings about bitcoin might have kept you away from establishing a decent position in BTC, too?

Personally, I would find it quite reasonable to consider that you might not be selling very many bitcoin in the next exponential run (presuming that we have one), if you consider yourself to be in a phase of still accumulating your BTC stash.  Maybe you can let us know a bit more about your situation, and of course, you do no need to provide any details about how many coins you have.. so for example, with me, I had come into bitcoin in late 2013, but I had already had investments into a lot of other kinds of assets, so I considered bitcoin to be a hedge investment, and therefore, my initial target in BTC was to establish a BTC position which largely took me about a year to establish (by the end of 2014), but thereafter I did continue to DCA into BTC and to tweak my strategies in other ways, which largely involved just selling small positions as the BTC price moved up rather than selling large positions, and then buying back when the BTC price went down.

I am back in the 100 million club.

May I post again?  

Some people are kind of mad at you, and maybe even losing some confidence in your judgement, but surely we cannot stop you from posting... and I doubt that people are just going to get over any temptation to razz you in a variety of ways until we might get used to what had seemed to have been a kind of craziness that is very difficult for many of us long term HODLers (and also suffering the pains of downward price movement without selling our BTC).  

Hopefully, having re-established 100million is going to be somewhat helpful for you to attempt think somewhat more practically about these matters (even though a lot of people are going to consider your position in BTC to be significantly insubstantial.. especially given your previous position, but it seems to be a much better place than you after going to zero and merely just dipping in your toes)...

Of course, a lot of this is on you.  I look forward to hearing from you, and hopefully you do not traumatize us too much.  I am crossing my fingers.    




#nohomo

[Biodom]

I'm selling everything in the next FOMO top, in Q4 2021.
For two reasons, I want to square everything with the taxman, I bought small amounts a gazillion times in 2013 and 2014 and need to get that straightened out. I also need some life changing money in my life.
So, 30% goes to the taxman, the rest will be divided in two equal sums, one for me to do what I want with, and one that will be put in something that pays a good interest. After a year that sum will be used to buy back bitcoins since the bottom comes almost exactly a year after the top, at least it has the last two times.
And then I will be 100% in bitcoin again for three years when the next top comes and I repeat.

I am close to 100% sure that what you described won't work, sorry.

It won't work time wise-you don't know it it would be in Q4 2021 or Q1 (or Q2?) 2022.
It won't work price wise-you don't know if it is going to be 55K, 100K, 288K or 572K (2X288K), the rest are numbers that were posted by just ONE analyst. There is no firm consensus.
Similarly, bottom is also unknowable. However, maybe, once you have a high top, then you would be able to chop off 80ish % to calculate the bottom, but I seriously doubt that we would chop off 80% if we peak at 55K.
Or, it could be a two peak season, like in 2013, with a short valley in between.
In any case, prior behavior does not determine future chart trajectory.

Intuitively, I dig the next peak as being between 55 and 572K.
Maybe an average of these two numbers is the most probable, but it is truly unknowable.

[Ibian]

^^ Next 30 years are critical...
Okay 20-30 years

30 years?

I’ll be in my 60’s or dead.

In that case we millennial need some lessons from JimboToronto, he seems to figured it out some stuff and ticking all the right boxes. Bad boys don't die that early anyways so don't you worry.

BTW I was being generous with the 30 year timeline in context of world reserve currency.

Jimbo is a boomer. He complains about being lumped in with those "other" boomers of a slightly different age, yet says not a word about the taxes they have imposed on all of us. Boomers are inherently narcissistic. Look elsewhere for answers.

 What does JimboToronto have to do with the taxes you pay in Scandanvia?  The social safety net in Nordic countries is unparalleled in the rest of the world!  Your high taxes are a result of your desire for comfort.  Jimbo lives in the jungle and covers his own medical costs.  You're barking up the wrong tree man.

...it's almost like the boomers came out of a world war. But maybe this is news to you.

Anyhow the main point was that the only thing you can learn from a narcissist is how to be narcissistic. Which yes, I class him as.

[fonship]

i have not sold any since 2016, so this time, need to sell some good amount

That was too long to hodl that coin if you think you already gained profit why not sell it instead of getting for another long term again.

Agree, it's just I came as an idealist and consider bitcoin as a movement rather than an investment so hodling is my form of support to this movement. But I understand that I need to sell and buy again to even increase my bitcoins.

[bitebits]

Just open blockchain explorer. You will see then why Bitcoin is not fungible.

Bitcoin is fungible. Any wallet can send/receive bitcoins to/from any other wallet. Any sort of "unfungibility" is outside the bitcoin protocol.

True. Unfortunately the real world matters though: Any sort of “value” is outside the Bitcoin protocol as well.

Fungability is a concern and I am glad the topic is on the (development) agenda.