Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fillippone]

After almost 3 years on these boards, I've never really dared to take the leap to visiting this thread. I'm wondering how much time I'd need to start reading the WO from the very first post all the way to the last one. I'm also wondering if it'd deliver me inner peace or other life-changing insights.

I sense the seducing perfume of a challenge...

This is my favorite thread my brother .... :-)

Here they did make an honest and solid hodler out of me

Just wait for him to find the page with your drunk quasi-dick pic!

The sentence

I sense the seducing perfume of a challenge...

will suddenly get a totally new meaning.

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[Hueristic]

I sense the seducing perfume of a challenge...

will suddenly get a totally new meaning.

We will know he's a year or so in when he starts speaking in tongues.

[Elwar]

I do have a bidet actually.

Or as we call them in Thailand...a bum gun.

People using pants as an example of why wearing masks is normal. They don't understand that I have never fully accepted that wearing pants should be required either.


Also...leprosy exists. If a leper touches you, you will catch it. That is why everyone in ancient times walked around in full plate mail.

If you are not walking around in a full suit of armor you can catch leprosy and eventually die. Let that little fact sink in.

I question your facts.

Fact: Leprosy exists (about 200,000 people as of 2016).

Fact: Leprosy is transmitted via touch.

Fact: If you are walking around in a full suit of armor, nobody can touch you.

Fact: If you are not walking around in a full suit of armor, somebody can touch you (and thus, you could potentially catch leprosy).

Fact: You will eventually die.

[Hueristic]

I do have a bidet actually.

Or as we call them in Thailand...a bum gun.

People using pants as an example of why wearing masks is normal. They don't understand that I have never fully accepted that wearing pants should be required either.


Also...leprosy exists. If a leper touches you, you will catch it. That is why everyone in ancient times walked around in full plate mail.

If you are not walking around in a full suit of armor you can catch leprosy and eventually die. Let that little fact sink in.

I question your facts.

OK, went back and see you are making a horrible analogy because you think the pants one is horrible.

got it.

[rdbase]

After almost 3 years on these boards, I've never really dared to take the leap to visiting this thread. I'm wondering how much time I'd need to start reading the WO from the very first post all the way to the last one. I'm also wondering if it'd deliver me inner peace or other life-changing insights.

I sense the seducing perfume of a challenge...

This is my favorite thread my brother .... :-)

Here they did make an honest and solid hodler out of me

Just wait for him to find the page with your drunk quasi-dick pic!

The sentence

I sense the seducing perfume of a challenge...

will suddenly get a totally new meaning.

That one will leave a scar and have him running for the exits I am sure!
The regulars to our Cheers watering hole won't soon forget it.
I try to out do it but can't seem too win the challenge.
The coomer one I just been exposed to today was the best I could muster into the convo and keep semi-on-topic.

[lightfoot]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

[vapourminer]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

years ago steam took btc. so at todays values i have like ~20 grand of steam games (couple bitcoins worth - maybe a couple hundred bucks at the time many years ago). bought i think like 4 or 5 games and a steam controller.

i even played a few. one shows 3 minutes total time, couple others less than 30 minutes. i think there was one i that i played through.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well, JJG, I will say it. I'm jealous. Jealous of you, and many other early adopters, and most of the WO brothers. Jealous in a good way. I love you all (no homo) and wish you the very best. As much as I understand the inner workings of Bitcoin (and that was the main force that drove me to it), I can't help but admitting that I could have done better. Much better. I had the fiat. Lots of fiat. A good part of which I used to buy BTC. But not when I should have. I waited, and ended up buying much less than I could have bought. Sometimes we must take risks. And not just take risks, but take them at the right time. Because if you time it wrongly, you end up risking more for less. So, hats off to you guys 'n' gals, you deserve it.

Probably the vast majority of us fucked up in one way or another.  So why kick ur lil selfie about that?

I started buying at the top of the 2013 market, so it took a decent amount of time to be profitable, and surely I could have had 2-3x more BTC by just waiting to buy lower.. but I thought that it was much better to just keep buying because I did not know when the bottom was going to be in, even when I was buying BTC in the $900s and all the way down to $180 was my lowest purchase, but way too little because I hardly had very much money by that point to really stock up on satoshis (we called them bitcoin back then.... hahahahahaha).

By the way, in about September, October 2013, I was already trying to look for a place to put some investment to largely supplement a 401k that I had but I was not able to further contribute to it.. so when I finally got around to reading about bitcoin in mid to late November 2013... I did not need a lot of convincing regarding bitcoin being the supplemental thing that I was looking for that would fit in well as a kind of 401k replacement (even though I still had - and still have the 401k that I have not added value to since late 2013.. but it still has grown, about 30% over 6.5 years).

It's cash. That's the beauty of it. You don't need to know who I am, I don't need to know who you are.

I think that is called a bearer asset.  Whoever bears it, owns it.  In other words, once you transfer the private key to me, I own it (or vice versa).

Add to this the ability to transact over-the-air, via a channel that only needs to be able to transfer information, and you're entering Star Trek territory.

you don't have to sell me.  

You're Captain Kirk and I'm Scotty and we're thousands of miles away from each other and we're beaming up cash to each other. It's as clean and pure as it gets. And the more you understand how it all works, the more it sucks you in. It's like a beautiful woman you just can't take your eyes off of. And she wants you too. She accepts you for who you are...

Whoa... that's deep.

No, I'm not smoking leaves from the elephant garden, although it sounds like it. The second time I felt so excited about something was when I watched a BBC documentary about Fermat's Last Theorem. The next day I called BBC and asked for the transcript (there was no YouTube at the time), which they kindly sent me. Such mathematical theorems may sound boring and pointless to most of us, but they really are maps. They're mapping the universe. It's like being in a pitch-black room without a single clue of what's inside. So you start to feel the objects, forming some images in your mind, of their shapes, their function, their significance. And at some rare moments during the course of this exploration, a brilliant mind comes along and flicks a switch, which illuminates part of the room, helping you see the treasures that exist right next to you, waiting to be harnessed, to be understood. Satoshi Nakamoto helped illuminate part of that room and gave us this brilliant mathematical construct called Bitcoin. That's the way I see it anyway...

Wish that I would have emphasized the hard sciences a bit more than the soft sciences (to the extent that they could be called sciences).

As for Lambos, hookers and blow, this is something that may happen, but not just yet. Not for me. My stash's current value is far too small to be spending it on such indulgences. Their time will come, but we're (I'm) not there just yet.

That was just an example of a possible future transaction.

Regardless of where this path will lead us, though, I feel lucky and blessed to be part of this. Let the riches come when they should (fully agree with your "why not both" comment), but let that not be a target, but a consequence.

Much more lucky to already have learned about it.. and it kind of sank in, which reminds me of your above comment about "mistakes were made."

I know that I was in bitcoin in the very lat 2013 and all of 2014, but there are a lot of folk who could have come to bitcoin in 2015 or even 2016, and either would have been much better than me, or at least NOT worse than me - except my only advantage was that I spent the whole of 2014 convincing myself why I was "in" bitcoin, so by the time 2015 came, I had already convinced myself that I was "in" bitcoin.  

There might have been some people who came to bitcoin in 2015 or 2016, but they were not convinced that bitcoin was a thing of importance...  

I forgot your story, AlcoHoDL, are you saying that you were one of those could have been earlier adopters, but you did not rise yourself to the level of action which would likely mean figuring out some kind of reasonable budget to get "in" at some earlier date?  When are we talking?  and why did you NOT act?  would have it made a difference?  I had some asset that I had invested into in early October 2013 and I would have had that money available for bitcoin, but I will say that I did withdraw all of that money that I had invested in that October 2013 asset and I invested into bitcoin between about October and December 2014 which I believe largely played out better for me.

What is your "could have," "would have," "should have," and would have it made a difference in terms of what you did, your resulting financial status or even your mindset?

[Elwar]

I do have a bidet actually.

Or as we call them in Thailand...a bum gun.

People using pants as an example of why wearing masks is normal. They don't understand that I have never fully accepted that wearing pants should be required either.


Also...leprosy exists. If a leper touches you, you will catch it. That is why everyone in ancient times walked around in full plate mail.

If you are not walking around in a full suit of armor you can catch leprosy and eventually die. Let that little fact sink in.

I question your facts.

OK, went back and see you are making a horrible analogy because you think the pants one is horrible.

got it.

Exactly.

[degxtra1]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

in feb 2015 bought laptop -basic model  of Acer about 1.45BTC today= 13500$

[Dunkelheit667]

The monthly update:



Summer, it's definitely summer now. We saw a red hot dot in June. There was not much to observe. Folks are getting lazy, the volume was pathetic. A lot of us just float along with the whales. Good news for all those currently accumulating (be it the first, second, third or... phase). I recently had a look at the accumulated amounts of my recent DCA purchases and have been buying almost the same amount of Satoshis with the same amount of fiat money for the past year. Guess history books will call it the veggie zone? Looking at the data above, I have to agree it should continue until Q4.

Other than that... still working at home, still double the work for the same fiat salary, the crisis, sure, more work is coming, gathered new (old) business. Exactly the same situation we faced during the last crisis. Well, now we can live in perfect osmosis with our office chairs at home, this is new. My slave owner promised me the first week off this year, my most urgent question is now how and if I will get out of this fraking chair when the time comes, seriously.

Gentlemen, have a relaxing month of July!

[Toxic2040]

the evening wall report

taking a good look into the...cloud, bitcoin looks ready to test 0.5 short fib resistance   #dyor
4h


snake climbs up mountain and spits fire
D


just some thoughts on a pivotal candle imho..its high and low the trading range we have been in since then..its open and close at that $10k psychological level
we have traded in or hit this range around 8 times..turning this resistance into a support zone is when I will consider the next bull run starting
the strong support zone is also visible with the top of several candles clearly defined in this range
M

#stronghands

[JimboToronto]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

If nobody had ever spent any of their bitcoins, Bitcoin would have no value.

Lazlo did his part back in 2010 and gave Bitcoin its first real-world monetary value. He said the pizzas were delicious. Hopefully he 's still holding much more than he spent and he's filthy rich.

I've still got my 2 black BTC ballcaps , which cost me about $30 in Bitcoin at the times I bought them and are now worth thousands (the older one) and hundreds (the newer one). They're still comfortable, albeit a little worn and sweat-stained. I wear them now only on special occasions, mainly for $5 wrench reasons. I feel I too was doing my part in my small way. I managed to hold enough coins to live happily ever after. Maybe some day I'll be filthy rich too.

Be proud that you did your part toward making Bitcoin what it is today and what it will be some day. Hopefully you're still holding enough coins to be filthy rich some day too.

[Biodom]

[edited out]

I was blown away by a couple of bitcoin ideas (in addition to no third party control, etc.):

1. Emission curve
2. The fact that you can convert electricity into something that is essentially, money (or at least immediately convertible good), and it appeared to be legal.

Hodling idea came at least a year or two later.

I noticed that you are still NOT completely convinced about the bitcoin HODL theory, Biodom, especially when you share some angles of your correlation speculations, from time to time...  

 
By the way, I am not even close to suggesting that you are anywhere near the level of a mindrust... unless you would like to disclose some of your previously undisclosed emotions about panic on or around our March 12 drop to $3,850?  Were you tempted to sell some BTC around that time or not?  Tell us.  Spill your guts... do it ... do it...

Huh? No, not really tempted. I did sell some a couple of weeks later or so, nothing major-that was my small sacrifice to ya'll (hodlers of perpetuity).
I did sell some mid 2017, though, Vinny Lingham "influenced" me...I guess my hodl was not too strong back then.
Used a half of proceeds to buy something that is not to be named, but it outperformed btc during 2017-2020, albeit I sold that "thing" as well a few weeks ago.
Taking huge risks becomes more difficult with each passing year, so i don't take large % portfolio risks on anything anymore.
DCAing is definitely NOT my style, though. That said, taking profits never ruined anybody, AFAIK.
Additionally, in prior years people were less ambivalent about spending btc on regular life items (as Jimbo and lightfoot show)

P.S. I lost almost all btc in 2017 hurricane Harvey flood. That was such a bummer.  

[xhomerx10]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

 I bought a WiiU with cash a few years back... WiiUsed it very little.   I wish I had spent that money on Bitcoin!
   

[Biodom]

So, in the meantime I thought I would fire up an old bitcoin wallet from 2014 and see just what I was spending coins on.

Some gems include:

Wii U console: .5 bitcoins, $4,600 in today's money
Delivered Pizza including tip: .02btc,  $184
Towels for the house: .4 bitcoin, $3680


While it is true I have been able to enjoy these things for the past 6 years, they did wind up costing me a lot. Something to keep in mind if you sell your bitcoins today, in 6 years you might be thinking "I could have bought xxxxx with that money"

 I bought a WiiU with cash a few years back... WiiUsed it very little.   I wish I had spent that money on Bitcoin!
  

you can say this about almost anything that appreciated..it's not unique to bitcoin.
example:
AAPL stock in lieu of iMac in 1998 (spent 1K, 364K now). Bought iMac. Bought stock as well, sold when it 10X, lol.
AMZN-same ($400 on AMZN books in 1997: 400K or even more now). Books were bought, of course, no stock.

[JimboToronto]

you can say this about almost anything that appreciated..it's not unique to bitcoin.
example:
AAPL stock in lieu of iMac in 1998 (spent 1K, 364K now). Bought iMac. Bought stock as well, sold when it 10X, lol.
AMZN-same ($400 on AMZN books in 1997: 400K or even more now). Books were bought, of course, no stock.

Yeah, but it was a pretty far stretch to figure that an iPod company that made really shitty computers would end up exploding in value due to cellphones. Equally long shot for a bookseller to become a tech giant and mega-retailer.

Bitcoin, on the other hand was amazing breakthrough technology, fated to change the world, which anyone with a brain could see.

No comparison.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I was blown away by a couple of bitcoin ideas (in addition to no third party control, etc.):

1. Emission curve
2. The fact that you can convert electricity into something that is essentially, money (or at least immediately convertible good), and it appeared to be legal.

Hodling idea came at least a year or two later.

I noticed that you are still NOT completely convinced about the bitcoin HODL theory, Biodom, especially when you share some angles of your correlation speculations, from time to time...  

 
By the way, I am not even close to suggesting that you are anywhere near the level of a mindrust... unless you would like to disclose some of your previously undisclosed emotions about panic on or around our March 12 drop to $3,850?  Were you tempted to sell some BTC around that time or not?  Tell us.  Spill your guts... do it ... do it...

Huh? No, not really tempted. I did sell some a couple of weeks later or so, nothing major-that was my small sacrifice to ya'll (hodlers of perpetuity).

Common Biodom. 



Your detailed answer makes me feel a little badly about trolling you.

I will admit that I sold a bit more BTC than I probably should have subsequent to the price drop to $3,850, partly because I had bought all the way down to $4k, and then I felt that my fiat supply was running low, in the event that BTC prices were to test lower $3ks or lower, again.  So I felt that I needed to prepare myself for that possibility (that has not materialized, so far), and even though I cannot recall the exact details off the top of my head, I outlined a plan in which I would sell a bit extra BTC when the BTC prices were going back up, which largely ended up filling those higher BTC sell orders between about $6k and $8k-ish... which were my insurance for possibly going back down to $3k or lower (which we can see has not yet happened, and my not happen, either).

I did sell some mid 2017, though, Vinny Lingham "influenced" me...I guess my hodl was not too strong back then.

Yeah.  I recall that one.  Vinny was making his rounds in the $1k arena, and saying that the BTC price was for sure going to drop below $500 (yeah, I said it), and he was saying that the BIG money had already sold.. and blah blah blah..

The price never went below $850, and only briefly.  Lot's of people got screwed there.  that was a round March 2017.

Used a half of proceeds to buy something that is not to be named, but it outperformed btc during 2017-2020, albeit I sold that "thing" as well a few weeks ago.

Well, at least that part worked out for you.  There are not very many assets that would have outperformed BTC for that whole period.. even though there would have been several to outperform BTC on the way up, maybe until early 2018, but then they dropped harder, and many of them did not get BTC's 3.5x bump in April-June 2019.

Taking huge risks becomes more difficult with each passing year, so i don't take large % portfolio risks on anything anymore.

That has been my approach through my whole BTC investment, even though probably many people would have sold more BTC along the way than I did, too.  Or reallocated their investment portfolio at some point, and I had just decided to continue to let my BTC largely ride.. even though I am not really too adverse if I need to sell a few extra BTC here or there because I am feeling a bit overallocated in BTC.

I had been hearing some pretty shitty forecast news in terms of some of my equities, and maybe if I was not already feeling somewhat over-allocated in my BTC, I would panic sell some of my equities, right now, rather than risk their losing a decent amount of their value, but who knows?  I am thinking just to let my allocations ride as they are, and maybe it will take more than our projected expectations of 18 months for all of this to play out, including BTC, yet I kind of believe that if I am suffering in significant ways in the way that I am allocated, then other people are likely going to be suffering just as bad, if not worse.. and maybe we will have an actual revolutionary war that we have to contend with?  aka the feared (but low probability event) Armageddon?

DCAing is definitely NOT my style, though. That said, taking profits never ruined anybody, AFAIK.

Some people engage in a variation of DCA, even though they refuse to call it DCA.. because they are buying on BIGGER swings and more spread apart rather than regularly.. and, maybe you are not doing DCA... and taking profits here or there can sometimes cause too much underperformance, so sure, investors are going to balance the extent to which they might take profits or allow some of their winners to continue to ride. Surely a discretionary approach, and maybe difficult to know scientifically if one approach might be better than another and maybe it takes 10 years or more for a plan to play out (or even a lifetime of building of a portfolio that might be sufficiently personally tailored and time based so difficult to replicate, even though sometimes we can concede that there might be places in our own plan that we could have performed better, when we attempt to look back at what choices we had in front of us and how we chose to allocate  or reallocate).

Additionally, in prior years people were less ambivalent about spending btc on regular life items (as Jimbo and lightfoot show)

There seem to have been some changes in the thoughts about spending in recent times, and many jurisdictions are not really very friendly to small spending, either.

P.S. I lost almost all btc in 2017 hurricane Harvey flood. That was such a bummer.  

I have some similar situation regarding heavy losses, but mine was not a hurricane, and I still am not sure how much tragedy has come to the life of my lil selfie or how to calculate it, exactly.  bitcoin sucks.. one day hookers, lambos and blow, and the next day, pondering over an excel spreadsheet regarding how the life of my lil selfie could have been and other related accounting matters.   

[OROBTC]

...

NONE of us (I suppose) have had perfect vision re BTC prices over the years.  Like most of you guys, I think anyone with over even a tiny amount (say 0.1 BTC) is already a "winner", even if you bought it yesterday (ah perhaps if you only bought in late 2017 maybe not, but we'll ignore that anomaly).  Anyone with over 1.0 BTC is, or will be, a big winner.  Anyone with 10.0 BTC or more would be, perhaps, a "Giant Shrimp" (to borrow FOFOA's term).  Over 100?  Hey, don't forget your friends!

An example of me making mostly bad calls: on ALL of infofront's polls I have been wrong each time except once. 

You guys could make money taking the other side of any short-term trades I would make (guesses too). 

*   *   *

Just today I bought more at CVS (the LibertyX service I discussed a day or two ago).  This time I paid a total fee amount of just 1.63% or so (well, plus gas to drive over), and the process was a snap today.  Just asked the gal at CVS to scan the barcode off my cellphone and plunked down my cash.  Easy-peasy.

I think I figured out why the cost was a little higher than expected (that's twice now): I paid "ask" price ("their price"), both times "their BTC price was some $45 over mine (preev.com, I like that one because it's fast, I like fast esp. on my cellphone at CVS...).

LibertyX will start charging their own fee after July 31.  If you don't care (much) about the KYC, then it's a pretty good deal for buying BTC in July.

[Toxic2040]

1h

#stronghands