Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html

Interesting article

Yes. very interesting, but Mr Burry is known to first LOSE a big chunk of his bets before making a large profit, so taking an opposite short-term position might just pay off..it is a bit cynical, but so are his bets as well.

[1715336124]

1715336124

[thewaterloggers]

So my hope is that price reverses more of less immediately following the TD 9. Otherwise, the 200 Day MA becomes the point of hopium as part of an imperfect setup.



Even a drop below 42.300 and I'd have to lower my bullish prediction from 90% to around 60%, which is more or less like flipping a coin. Ie: shit.

For now nothing has changed. The TD 9 Sequential represents the potential for a trend change.

[Elwar]

General Von Clausewitz wrote in his famous book "Vom Kriege" ("On War") something like this.
If two parties go to war, the only way to get a lasting peace is for one of the parties to win a victory so overwhelming that the looser will not try to retaliate in a new war.
That's what the allied did with Germany, and the USA did with Japan.
I think that is what is eventually going to happen in this conflict too.

*sigh* Pretty much. The US civil war is an example of what happens when the loser is given honorable terms and troops removed quickly. Result: Century of "lost cause" baloney.

We'll see.

If you read the Old Testament you'll see that God instructed the jews to battle the various towns in their path and to leave nobody alive.

Early strategy that may translate to continuing today.

[d_eddie]

General Von Clausewitz wrote in his famous book "Vom Kriege" ("On War") something like this.
If two parties go to war, the only way to get a lasting peace is for one of the parties to win a victory so overwhelming that the looser will not try to retaliate in a new war.
That's what the allied did with Germany, and the USA did with Japan.
I think that is what is eventually going to happen in this conflict too.

*sigh* Pretty much. The US civil war is an example of what happens when the loser is given honorable terms and troops removed quickly. Result: Century of "lost cause" baloney.

We'll see.

If you read the Old Testament you'll see that God instructed the jews to battle the various towns in their path and to leave nobody alive.

Early strategy that may translate to continuing today.

They learn the Old Testament by heart, so they know well about the "leave nobody alive" bit.
Still hurting from the Shoah, they behave like children abused by a violent parent: spread the love!
There is no justification for what they are doing. It's the law of the bully: this is it because I say so.

[BobLawblaw]

LOL. Did I ever pick a great time to set up a $30/day recurring buy or what?

* BobLawblaw punches himself in the nuts. Feels nothing.

[philipma1957]

LOL. Did I ever pick a great time to set up a $30/day recurring buy or what?

* BobLawblaw punches himself in the nuts. Feels nothing.

hmm

my downward ladder buy

42
41
40
39
38

I knocked off the 42.

[smartcomet]

https://twitter.com/Kpaxs/status/1394588201549975554
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-factors-driving-crypto-markets-boom-and-the-challenges-ahead-11621243809

[True Myth]

Oh no! My bitcoin is now worth *checks chart* only double what it was in December.

Been busy the past 6 months.  Good to see nothing has changed here (didn't expect it to  )

Also... can we start posting Christmas cards early? Seemed to help back in December 

[AlcoHoDL]

@Swedish_HODL
This dip follows the previous cycles pattern of 6 30%-40% dips, #Bitcoin  -> $100,000 soon

2017 bull run


Current cycle


https://twitter.com/swedish_hodl/status/1394775125082484743?s=21

Forgive me for saying this, but the second graph does not really look very promising... The first one clearly follows an upward, parabolic curve. The second one looks like a sorry-ass camel...

In any case, no worries. Corn does what corn does. We'll just have to postpone the fireworks for another couple of months. Or years.

[philipma1957]

I extended the downward buy ladder


42
41 gone
40
39
38
37 added
36 added


I will check it before I go to bed and will extend it more if need.


I am Buying lots of cheap BTC

[Biodom]

A generous gesture, but, still, you should buy when stuff is going up and sell (or holdl) when things go down, NOT vise versa.
BTW, it is difficult to do, granted, I even bought a small amount of COIN when it was on the decline slope, but started to temporarily recover.
Not buying that anymore after reversal.
Hodling all btc, not selling a satoshi.

[Richy_T]

Same gif, different context

[JayJuanGee]

So my hope is that price reverses more of less immediately following the TD 9. Otherwise, the 200 Day MA becomes the point of hopium as part of an imperfect setup.



Even a drop below 42.300 and I'd have to lower my bullish prediction from 90% to around 60%, which is more or less like flipping a coin. Ie: shit.

For now nothing has changed. The TD 9 Sequential represents the potential for a trend change.

I am going to suggest that even predictions around 60% can be quite overly certain in bitcoinlandia and even needing explanation order to understand why such certainty is being espoused to others.  On the other hand, on a personal level you can come to as high of certainties as you like, and if you place your BTC bets accordingly, you may well be getting reckt quite a lot if you are actually betting in ways that consider yourself to have better than 60% odds of being correct.

At the same time, many of us realize that both gamblers and sorcerer wannabes tend to overstate their success history, and if they are forced into a practice of actually having to timely report such bets in order to see how they play out in actual practice, they are frequently humbled in a fairly quick timeline, even though some might have something up to a 6 month streak from time to time.. even jupiter9 - that kind of reminds me of your vague-ass TD9 was successful for a seemingly long-ass time, may have been greater than 3 months if my recollection is serving me with some level of accuracy.

You don't really seem like a dumb guy, so hopefully you will get ur lil selfie humbled a wee bit in order that you might be able to be helpful to others in this thread beyond being another example of what NOT to do.. and we surely already have a decent abundance of those, so it seems....

At the same time, I do believe that we are quite blessed in this thread in terms of the number of really full of shit participants .. so there does seem to be a lot of decent ideas being presented and outlined herein on a quite regular basis.. even during stressful times like these.. what are we at?  a current low of $40,127 (within the past 20 minutes-ish) as I type which would be a bit more than a 38% correction from our current ATH of $64,895?

No real actual clear sign of a violent bounce back that sometimes can help to provide some evidence that the bottom is in - even though neither a violent spike down nor a violent bounce back would be a condition precedent for the bottom being in because the bottom could get reached without such wicks.

LOL. Did I ever pick a great time to set up a $30/day recurring buy or what?

* BobLawblaw punches himself in the nuts. Feels nothing.

Hahahahaha

That might be the key.. bob...

Maybe we do have to get Blawb to start screaming like a little girl before the bottom is actually in....

that might be a decent indicator.. And you cannot be faking it either.. .. put ur lil selfie emotionally back in the time when you were deleting all your posts, or you were whining about going below $10k but the BTC price did not want to stop there...

King daddy knows the difference between a real scream like a little girl and a fake one.

[philipma1957]

A generous gesture, but, still, you should buy when stuff is going up and sell (or holdl) when things go down, NOT vise versa.
BTW, it is difficult to do, granted, I even bought a small amount of COIN when it was on the decline slope, but started to temporarily recover.
Not buying that anymore after reversal.
Hodling all btc, not selling a satoshi.

I sell on the way up in ladders.

and I buy on the way down in ladders.

[Biodom]

A generous gesture, but, still, you should buy when stuff is going up and sell (or holdl) when things go down, NOT vise versa.
BTW, it is difficult to do, granted, I even bought a small amount of COIN when it was on the decline slope, but started to temporarily recover.
Not buying that anymore after reversal.
Hodling all btc, not selling a satoshi.

I sell on the way up in ladders.

and I buy on the way down in ladders.

It is almost the same "system" as @JJGs. It ought to be the exact reverse/opposite.
I know that it sounds counterintuitive, but it is supported by many leading market practitioners and my own 24 year long market experience as well.
Just my 2c.

[JayJuanGee]

A generous gesture, but, still, you should buy when stuff is going up and sell (or holdl) when things go down, NOT vise versa.
BTW, it is difficult to do, granted, I even bought a small amount of COIN when it was on the decline slope, but started to temporarily recover.
Not buying that anymore after reversal.
Hodling all btc, not selling a satoshi.

I sell on the way up in ladders.

and I buy on the way down in ladders.

It is almost the same "system" as @JJGs. It ought to be the exact reverse/opposite.
I know that it sounds counterintuitive, but it is supported by many leading market practitioners and my own 24 year long market experience as well.
Just my 2c.

Of course, I have frequently asserted that my system works quite well for me in terms of what I have done in bitcoin.. and no real need to redescribe it at this point.. beyond to say that it buys on the way down with buy orders set down to about $13k currently.. and sell orders that go up to about $100k currently..

But I do have some real world deals that may well cause me to change some of my orders and also give some considerations to me cash on-hand considerations.. including potentially removing some of the sub $30k buy orders.. even though this does seem to be a time to be keeping those in place...  but in the real world, I hardly gives no fucks.. and I can even shave off some extra BTC at any time that I want to.. even though it is seeming right now would not be a good time to do so..  but my decision does not have very much at all to do with whether the BTC price is moving UPpity or DOWNity... and just a matter of already being in "fuck-you" status that mostly allows to NOT pay so much attention if the shaven off portions of the BTC stash are in 65x profits or they "only" happen to be in 32x profits. or even some smaller number.. assuming a cost basis of around $1k per BTC.

Even though my authorization to be able to sell as needed above $5k went into effect sometime after the 2019 recovery from the 2018 dippening.  My authorization to sell above $5k as needed has been reverted into using the 208-week moving average as my guidance in terms of whether I may remove myself from being able to sell or to shave off some BTC here and there at will, which allows me to sell without worries so long as the price is above the 208-week moving average.... and largely I am able to sell up to 12% per year based on those numbers.. which seems a bit high, and I have not even come close to selling much of any (beyond a few percent here and there and even those were subsequently largely replaced)...

So anyhow, the 208-week moving average is currently approaching $12,500-ish.. so even shaving off some BTC now (at these current prices of $40k-ish).. would still result in 3x more value than the 208-week moving average, if I were to want to shave up to 12% per year of the 208-week moving average total which I may well restrict myself to 3% per quarter, but have not thought it through yet since it has NOT yet needed to actually be applied.. yet... so hopefully no panic from me, if all of a sudden I might need to shave off some BTC and it might go higher than the limits that I had already set for myself. hope that it does not happen, but I feel decently secure, currently.

I surely understand that there are going to be some folks who might consider any kind of selling to NOT to be a good when the BTC price is going down, and surely I agree with that, so I tend to prefer to time any sales for when the BTC price is going up, in the event that I were to need to make any sales.. which currently, I am still in the buying on the way down mode.. as I already mentioned.... 

Sorry to confuse peeps with personal details because personally tailorizing anything that you do (including bitcoining) does seem to be a quite winner strategy - even though the individualized particulars from time to time might not apply to others... especially if we consider if that BTC HODLers are likely in various different locations and degrees of whether they are largely accumulating, maintaining or liquidating, so understanding where one HODLer might be in comparison to another HODLer may well help to be able to appreciate why one HODLer may have taken his/her particularized tailored approach in the event that they were to be asked further regarding personal details and see if any of that might apply to the circumstances of other peeps or how they might plan and strategize their own approach to bitcoin based on their personal situation and whether they are in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage (or some hybrid variation).

[ivomm]

I just woke up to see we dipped to $40 300. I gotta confess that my plans for buying mining equipment failed (I blame UK covid variant for that), and I took the decision to take back 1.17BTC around $40 600. So now, I am better prepared for the next massive bull run. Thanks Moron Musk!   I already cashed out enough for my retirement, so cheers mates! My next sells will be in the 333K-600K area, some day, very soon I hope! And the newly mined coins I will perhaps sell around 120K, to be completely honest. With the current pace, I mine with a profit 6x than my monthly salary, so that would mean 18x at 120K. Life is good  

Edit. I see that the dip continues. I knew that it will dip below 40K but I wasn't sure for how long and will I have time to buy. Anyway, I expect a rebound coming soon. 25%+ recovery in one day or something.

[marcus_of_augustus]

fuck the commie Musk and fuck the chinese communists ... fuck the lot of them in their commie clusterfuck

[macson]

fuck the commie Musk and fuck the chinese communists ... fuck the lot of them in their commie clusterfuck

https://twitter.com/TheCryptoLark/status/1394826096374288385

yeah....F*uck them all

#keephodl
#stronghand
#buymoredip

[BayAreaCoins]

Dear baby jesus, please let a really weird fucking celeb twatter about bitcoin tonight and save us... because that's what successful eco systems are based on. Amen

All you guys need to sell your 2010ish honda's, buy these "cheap" $39,000 Bitcorns' and save us!

Bitcoin to sub $10k.  Serves it right for being unusable, expensive and full of fags like Elon Musk/Jack Dorsey/ and the rest of the tag along fagmos + their blind cheerleaders.

Bitcoin was the best around $100-$1000 anyways IMO.

I just cant wait to read articles like "Mark Cuban Save His Team Billions Talking Them Out Of Bitcoin Salaries!"