Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

Anybody like to share their thoughts on the current market, price action?

It looks weak AF to me. I mean, I think everything is OK & we should rally in Q4 but we really need to start moving up soon. Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

[El duderino_]

                           

Very cool, but not as cool as this one

Piece of fine home interior

[Cryptotourist]

Indeed, I will tell you more: the Stock to flow is going to break 100% in the future.

That’s probably going to become true, when 99% of the coins have been mined - or maybe a bit sooner like around the 2032 halving.

In a few halving at best, the stock to flow is going to break, ~

Call it for what it is, 2-3 halvings (2024, 2028, 2032 max).

~ either because Bitcoin is going to break, ~

What if, it doesn’t “break”, and becomes kinda stable up there - let’s say around the $4M USD mark.
It will continue to be deflationary in it’s nature, far less volatile, making the boom and bust cycles a thing of the past. Stablecoin bitcoin.

~ or because the dollar is going to break.

That’s already broken man!

Your choice. 

Not really. It’s a no-brainer.

Let’s pretend that we are already there (2032-33, $4-5M per coin), and you still have the choice between BTC and FIAT. What’s it going to be?

~ go to $10m, $20m, $50m, even $100m. Over time.

I really don’t see that Dabs, like ever. Unless you’re talking about the Idiocracy Era (year 2500+).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

OK!  That's really cool!

pictures are very well done, I have to say...@sirazimuth may think of making a limited NFT series out of it...I know , I know, you guys mostly dislike that "nifty" concept.
Nobody knows the people on the list outside of WO, though, but who knows, when btc would be at $5mil, WO might have a place in history, lol

[Biodom]

EDIT: You could also leverage. Who doesn't these days?  

I don't...f-n hate leverage, NEVER used it since 2002  . The siren call of leverage is strong, but the results are dismal...sooner or later.

[BobLawblaw]

gasnow shutting down, 1inch legal warnings on website, more services going to shut down.  seems the china crackdown has more muscle this time.  good riddance china

Waitaminit here.

It's an informative site that provides ETH  I N F O R M A T I O N and even the info is being cracked down on?

Hmmmm...

Ser. We can see your fucking shorts. Have a modicum of decency, pls.

EDIT: LOOP channel established and gonna baby it like a little Tamagotchi. Gonna try not to let it get entirely drained this time around... I hope...

[Dabs]

~ go to $10m, $20m, $50m, even $100m. Over time.

I really don’t see that Dabs, like ever. Unless you’re talking about the Idiocracy Era (year 2500+).

Maybe not in our lifetimes, but you never know. I've seen more than a few essays talk about these numbers and hyperbitcoinization. It's going to approach those numbers within the next 100 to 200 years, not all the way to year 2500. Maybe even before year 2140 (the last satoshi mined.)

Again, we'll have 20 million coins already by 2028, and 99.9% mined by 2048 (another 20 years after 2028). So it will start happening between those two years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

~ go to $10m, $20m, $50m, even $100m. Over time.

I really don’t see that Dabs, like ever. Unless you’re talking about the Idiocracy Era (year 2500+).

Definitely. By that time, the world will see an unprecedented crash in all state issued currencies, including UNY (USA New Yuan).

[Farmer Bill]

Ivomm good luck and speedy recovery! Glad everything is at least moving in the right direction.

Offtopic but still important: stumbled across an interesting article, for those who are interested in the dark state in all it's forms, and the rich and powerful threatening (social) freedoms: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/30/revealed-council-national-policy-republicans-extremists

Just take it with a pinch of salt.

The Guardian is a news outlet which promotes Marxism as does SPLC.

Jason Wilson who wrote the piece, who can loosely be described as a journalist, is extreme left wing.

Marxism is the biggest threat to freedom everywhere, not the people who they label as far-right, who are blocking Marxism's progress.

It is off topic, but lets bring this full circle, Bitcoin can act as a bulwark against these Marxists, who would control every aspect of your life. why do you think the CCP are so keen to ensure that ordinary citizens do not own Bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

OK!  That's really cool!

pictures are very well done, I have to say...@sirazimuth may think of making a limited NFT series out of it...I know , I know, you guys mostly dislike that "nifty" concept.
Nobody knows the people on the list outside of WO, though, but who knows, when btc would be at $5mil, WO might have a place in history, lol

nice work

Thanx Phil.
Created on Mastercam 2018 .
If you (or any wo bro) want a blown up jpeg of your medallion with any desired edits (colors, font, etc) just ask here and I will post it.
Really easy to make now with this template on file. Keeps me amused in my old age while the Mazak is in CNC milling cycle.

yeah you can make a large one for me. my eyes need the big print.

I think you may have missed my post.  capslock style is very nice may I have one similar?

[JayJuanGee]

Part of me is fucking concerned if I’m honest.

My gut is telling me S2F falls apart soon. In shambles and an afterthought by March 2022.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we should expect a slower rise than some are anticipating.

seconded.
But by all means, i don't follow the "fool of the bulls" argument from Torque. Bulls know how capitulation looks like, wait for it then and get in (around the infamous "mindrust point").

Even though I can recognize some value in a buying a dip approach, many of us need to be careful with any such approach that is going to hold large quantities of our fiat waiting for dips that do not end up happening.

Of course, we are going to feel smart as fuck if we end up buying upon a mindrust kind of moment.. but those kinds of moments are definitely difficult to identify and/or prepare for.

I am not really writing my response for you OOM, but instead about your seemingly misleading comment in regards to your rendition of your buying on the dip intentions/practices.

Let's say that anyone who has already accumulated a decent bitcoin stash, but that same person is trying to time some of the BIGGER BTC price swings in order to get some additional profits from what is a somewhat inevitability in bitcoin, which is decently high volatility.  So, a kind of presumption is that person is already pretty well prepared for UP, they just want to supplement their BTC stash with some additional BTC from the quite likely inevitable BTC price dips.  My suggestion would still be to figure out some kind of a formula that attempts to anticipate the most extreme that we might expect any dip to be able to go, and to stagger buys at various points on the way down, and surely still hopefully being able to take advantage of the most extreme aspects of the extremes... if those extremes were to end up happening.  

One possible measurement would be to use weekly moving averages, and I consider the 208-week moving average (currently $16,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme of BTC price lows for bear markets and the 104-week moving average (currently $24,000-ish) to be the now current measure of extreme BTC price lows for bull markets.  Accordingly, staggered buy (buy on dip) orders could be set to go down to something around those levels of extremes..

However, i'd need a new car within the next two years, solar power my home and pay off approx. $12k to the government to free myself from a payback plan from the government. Only the latter is really important, because otherwise i'd have to pay it off for the next 15 years for about double as much (mainly interest).
I can easily hodl the majority of my/the family stash for one or two decades.

You are not going to get any arguments from me in regards to attempting to anticipate and prioritize your expenses... which I agree is a good thing to do at the best of your ability and perhaps to tweak from time to time too, for example as your wife nags you about how her priorities (or even choices in expenses) might be different from yours.. and you cave in like a little wimp (not even saying that you are an actual wimp, in real life).. .. hahahahaha
 

Y'all remember that get-rich-quick-vs.-not-get poor-slowly quote, right?

For sure.. relatively speaking having bitcoin in your portfolio (whether apportioned appropriately or not) will likely help with the not getting poor aspect.. but there still could be some getting rich more quickly than expected (or more rich than expected) aspects that inadvertently come by holding bitcoin, too.. .even if the getting richie part might not have been the main goal (for sure, it has already happened to quite a few of those of us who have been in a while and have been somewhat aggressive with our approach.. not even saying that 0.21 BTC would not be a good aggressive starting point, currently.. then working your way up to 0.63BTC, then 1 BTC, then 2 BTC, then 10 BTC, then 21 BTC.. etc.. no normie is ever going to need more than 21 BTC, right?).

Also, I remember that you had started out your post by agreeing that S2F is potentially "falling apart soon," but you hardly made any arguments or assertion to support such likely to be baloney "agreement.".. but of course, you (and others) can believe what you want in terms of what are currently the most credible of the BTC prediction models or even to spin (or should it be "roll"?) your own likely to be wrong and based on gut feelings BTC price prediction model(s), too.

Edited a few of the above ideas 30 minutes after the original post, to clarify what I had been attempting to say

[AlcoHoDL]

[...] Greedy much?

ummmm lemme think.... errr.. YEAH!!!!!

is this a trick question? am i in the wrong thread through some black magic sorcery?

You greedy little devil you...  

Sure I'd like the price to reach and exceed $100k this year (which quite possibly will happen -- still 3 months to go), but even if it stays in the $40k range throughout 2021 I'm OK with that. You can call me a bear, but I think $40k is an amazing achievement, even more amazing if you consider what's happening in China. 5 years ago, $40k was the stuff of dreams, and yet here we are, posting "Come on, Bitcoin, do something!" memes.

Yeah, it seems we are greedy... How can we not be? This is Bitcoin!  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

I know it’s not a Sunday, but it’s one of those nights.

suchmoon my swaying star,
cryptotourist is in love,
skull sex included.

#haiku

[El duderino_]

I know it’s not a Sunday, but it’s one of those nights.

suchmoon my swaying star,
cryptotourist is in love,
skull sex included.

#haiku

6 liner 

[JayJuanGee]

The make or break moment is nearly upon us. If the next 40 days doesn’t produce the beginnings of a major bubble, it will start to discourage those of us who have been watching the stock to flow ratio for a couple cycles now.

Luckily it seems there’s news of an approved ETH incoming that seems to be legitimate…

Every person with some intelligence should now that the model could be invalid at some point….
It’s nice to follow and we all hope it stays accurate, but there can’t be exact price prediction in BTC…
S2F is a very good and interesting model with a lot of logic, but I don’t really believe in the that month = price X, next month = price y etc etc

If BTC proves us one thing then it’s that it’s unpredictable price wise

I just hope not to many people pinning there selves on price predictions in near future…




Please PlanB stay on point, S2F is all I got, my full hope is on that model.

Surely dude, I agree with the overall sentiment of your above post in terms of not getting too tied down to exactness, but you must recognize and appreciate that S2F is not any kind of new model. He was largely taking from various previous models and then extrapolating data to put within another kind of way of expressing similar ideas that were already out there.. and for sure, there is nothing wrong with re-packaging because it will become a wee bit more digestible for a lot of us mere mortal normies (especially some of the less technical, less mathematics, and less science oriented).

Another thing is that the S2F model does not really take into account exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects, and his model get's criticized based on a failure to account for demand or to even project the demand curve as a kind of upwardly sloping constant (which surely could be a way of saying that the model does attempt to account for exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects because it presumes a kind of onward and upward trajectory.. while at the same time saying that the historical data (plotting on the lines) actually supports such theory that the demand curve remains onward and upwards - which is similar to what a lot of us presume, and we know (or appreciate) that the future cannot be projected based on future data that has not happened yet.. so any kind of future projection is going to seem somewhat presumptuous since the future has not happened, yet.. hahahahahaha

Another thing that we know is that a lot of shit could end up going haywire, and in that regard, there surely can be some value in NOT having 100% of your eggs in the bitcoin basket.. so even if many of us can appreciate that our odds in bitcoin's future are quite great, we should be careful - and probably more careful if we have things to lose or we might be older or even that we might have some limitations (such as health issues or potential health issues).  Even though I would NOT consider 100% investing to be prudent, I can appreciate that there might be some very young people who could risk putting 100% into bitcoin, and then just considering that they will diversify a wee bit later down the road.. maybe after this cycle or the next one.. perhaps they could get away with such a gamble that seems a bit too much from my perspective of even considering what the youngest of folks should be doing (but they have to decide for themselves).  Oh, and by the way, if someone hardly has a pot to piss in, besides being able to garner up $1k to $20k in value, then perhaps there could be some value in putting 100% into bitcoin.. perhaps? perhaps?

[UnDerDoG81]

US not banning crypto video is out and the pump has started. ATH October.

[PoolMinor]

Long time no see

Good to be back.