Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

Getting back to the enjoying the value now, I can appreciate that there can be quite a bit of value in that, but in bitcoin we have seen a lot of examples of guys cashing out way too much bitcoin too soon because they believe that the bull run is over, and we sometimes will see that at previous ATHs where the price passes through and never comes back down, but we see it at other sticking points and it could take a year or two years or even longer to recognize that the BTC price is highly unlikely to come back down to those levels... saw that in the $400s in early 2016, saw that in the $2-3ks in mid-2017...and some people still waiting for sub $10ks from 2020.. and that ship seems to have sailed.. just like $55k could end up being one of these price points as well..  hard to know at this point because we surely have been visiting and passing through $55k quite a bit since February.

Well, he does still have a substantial quantity left by current standards and he hasn't gone full fiat like a certain person occasionally known by 'AA' did so he's still good. I wouldn't get too caught up in the percentages as 25% of X is only 12.5% of 2X and so on. The question is "should they be happy with what they still have?" which can only be answered on a personal level. Bear in mind also that they may have placed themselves in a better position to continue to accumulate bitcoin which, while slightly weaker overall, may be well worth it for the improvement of quality of life.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

If you have access to debt instruments you should attempt to use those to the extent reasonable....

Debt is risk and obligation. How much that is acceptable will depend on your personal viewpoint. However, many people do not treat it this way and then get all surprised when things go wrong.

This doesn't apply if you're a large corporation, of course. In that case the government just bails you out.

By the way, I did a quickie approximation in my spreadsheet to find that payments for such Lambo would be around $11,500 per month to pay off such $600k-ish loan in 5 years and the payoff amount would reach around $692k after the interest is calculated into the payoff amount.

Debt also accumulates. So that's 100k on top of your original payment. Now, you may be expecting Bitcoin to appreciate to more than offset that in the intervening years but so also goes the thought processes of the gambler who is just needs to borrow 200 to put on an accumulator and pay of what he owes so that "Jimmy the hammer" won't remove his kneecaps.

Debt is also fungible. If you have a large quantity of Bitcoin and borrow to buy something frivolous, consider whether you would have borrowed that money to buy Bitcoin. No? Well, you may as well have.

I will at this point state explicitly that I am not anybody's mother and they can handle their finanaces how they please. I am just giving my angle on the matter.

[JayJuanGee]

Nice green dildo this morning, although it didn't reach my sell order yet.

For mine, I had about 11 buy orders fill every $1k increment down from about $53k to $42k.. and then I set my sell orders staring at $49k-ish.. which ended up filling 3 between $49k and $51k, so I therefore reset three buy orders between $42k and $44k... so therefore my next sell order is still $52k-ish and my next buy order is $44k-ish...

Your orders are probably much bigger than mine, though. 49k hit today, so my next sell is 50k and next buy 46k.

Of course, I am very proud of myself and the kind of system that I have continued to practice and to kind of tweak along the way with learnings along the way, and I doubt that the amounts are as important as figuring out the percentages including attempting exercise quite a bit of discretion to tailor to your own finances and emotions. 

Of course, from your disclosure, I can see that your spreads are smaller than mine, but I cannot really tell about how much of your total holdings you are playing with... On a ballpark basis, I am thinking that in 2016/2017 when I was newer to the practice, I was selling around 1.5% of my total value for every 10% the BTC price went up.. and currently, I am thinking that I may be selling 0.5% of my total value for every 10% the BTC price goes up.. Either one of those is completely sustainable forever Laura.. but surely selling a smaller percentage does tend to emphasize HODLing and less playing around.. and surely, I could easily increase the percentage on a short term basis merely to extract some extra value.. whichI have done from time to time, and maybe I am kind of contemplating if I need to do anything like that..even though my current 0.5% ends up adding up to way more dollar values than it did in 2016/2017, and you can imagine too, right?  If we ballpark speculate that the BTC price went up around 50x to 100x since 2016/2017 - using a ballpark value of $500 to $1k versus our current BTC price of around $50k, so then even the use of 1/3 the previous percentage would still result in about 17x to 33x more value in terms of the actual substantive amounts.

My recollection of when I started in around late 2015 (when BTC prices were ONLY $250-ish), my spreads were very small in terms of percentage but also it seems to me that by the time we got to late 2016 and even into parts of 2017, I was likely selling a higher percentage of my stash too.. so maybe my sellings ended up being sometimes bordering on 1.5% of my stash for every 10% that the BTC price went up... ..so I had to jigger and jigger.. and both my spreads were smaller back then (even in terms of percentages) and my intervals between orders were smaller too.. so I was able to get a lot of practice, but really not a whole hell of a lot of profits (even though I felt that it was largely serving my psychological and financial purposes).  I am thinking that my spreads might not have been much higher than 7% or so, and my intervals were probably around 1% or so.

These days with about a $7k to $8k spread, that's around 15%, but still my intervals of only $1k is only in the ball park of 2%, even though at one point I had barely reached into $2,500 and even $3,333 intervals.. so it seems that if we return to supra $69k at some point I will cross back over into $2,500 and $3,333 intervals.. and sometimes there are just too many balancing and rebalancing that have to take place based on other things that I am trying to get out of my moving around of values in terms of BTC/fiat values..

So of course if the actual values go up and the spreads go up then the profits from each trade will go up too, but they are executing way less frequently... less practice... your spreads of around 6%-ish do seem closer to what mine were in 2017-ish... and they are still not bad. they could be smaller if you want more practice and action or they could be larger if you want less practice and more profits per trade.. but also greater possibility that they will never get filled.. if the price goes up and leaves all your orders behind.. which happens quite bit in bitcoinlandia.. as we know.

And sometimes I am playing around with rebalancing, and in my current situation, I still have not completely gotten rebalanced from my BinanceUS dip that had happened a couple of months ago.. even though BTC prices still went down to fill all of the Buy orders that would have filled anyhow.. but I still did have some ups and downs in there that I was attempting to balance out, and I suppose the non-playing out of my little side bet (on the margins) that we would get through $55k to $80k without much effort had caused me to have put off getting my portfolio back in balance because in part I was expecting some of the rebalancing to happen as a result of the noman's land theory playing out.. and it did not ...

It is not any kind of BIG deal to me because like I mentioned my bet is on the margins which largely means that I I am not tweaking my practice in any kind of major or meaningful way based on such vision, but maybe changing the order sizes by 5% to 20% or whatever I might be feeling at the moment to play around with some extra little funzies... so instead of selling $100, I sell $105 or $110 or $120... until it all balances out.. but sometimes, if there might be some kind of feeling of urgency after a mistake like the one that happened on BinanceUS, I might want to get rebalanced in a very quick manner.. so I might double or triple the size of my sell orders in order to get back into a balanced status more quickly based on my speculation that the BTC price is toping.. and in the current situation, I am speculating that the odds are NOT that the BTC price is topping.. and it is a fair bet.. maybe I am right and maybe not.. and hopefully the changes to the size of my orders is not so much that I cause it to bother me psychologically or financially if I happen to end up wrong.

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

You might like

"Physicist Sean Carroll Explains Parallel Universes to Joe Rogan"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_ZsDBMPQMI

(Reference to your post from approx. 9:20min )

[JayJuanGee]

Getting back to the enjoying the value now, I can appreciate that there can be quite a bit of value in that, but in bitcoin we have seen a lot of examples of guys cashing out way too much bitcoin too soon because they believe that the bull run is over, and we sometimes will see that at previous ATHs where the price passes through and never comes back down, but we see it at other sticking points and it could take a year or two years or even longer to recognize that the BTC price is highly unlikely to come back down to those levels... saw that in the $400s in early 2016, saw that in the $2-3ks in mid-2017...and some people still waiting for sub $10ks from 2020.. and that ship seems to have sailed.. just like $55k could end up being one of these price points as well..  hard to know at this point because we surely have been visiting and passing through $55k quite a bit since February.

Well, he does still have a substantial quantity left by current standards and he hasn't gone full fiat like a certain person occasionally known by 'AA' did so he's still good.

You are referring to andreas antonopolis? or someone else?  You are referring to a recent example?  I remember the charity situation for andreas a few years ago... but I am not sure about your reference here.

I wouldn't get too caught up in the percentages as 25% of X is only 12.5% of 2X and so on.

Why would you not want me to get caught up on the percentages?  That was my whole point to get caught up on the percentages.  Yes, I know that people have total discretion regarding what they do, and even if they do dumb stuff, but if we give analysis regarding different kinds of ways to think about the matter, then we are discussing and hopefully being helpful to people (and sure maybe even helpful to myself to go through the exercise).

The question is "should they be happy with what they still have?" which can only be answered on a personal level.

That's ridiculously a different topic than what I was attempting to discuss... so just seems weird that you want to go there.

Bear in mind also that they may have placed themselves in a better position to continue to accumulate bitcoin which, while slightly weaker overall, may be well worth it for the improvement of quality of life.

Well, sure that part of having potential to put themselves in a better position is always true in terms of making attempts at trading or gambling that varies in terms of if they were wanting to play with buying back, and sure maybe that is part of what cryptorich13 was attempting to do.. even if my way of framing the matter was addressing some other issues than where you seem to be wanting to take this..

[eXPHorizon]

James Webb Telescope to Launch Christmas Eve!


What a gift for Christmas if it goes well ! Then 9 Month of waiting and nail biting period for the 1st Pic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Everyone spare yourselves from Matrix 4

Not gonna say more about it

[cAPSLOCK]

This sure looks good... But there are two things bothering me.

1. STILL NO VOLUME.

2. It's the witching hour point in the year.  Nothing happening right now can be counted on meaning what it looks like it means.

Other than that?  Pretty exciting!

[Richy_T]

You are referring to andreas antonopolis? or someone else?  You are referring to a recent example?  I remember the charity situation for andreas a few years ago... but I am not sure about your reference here.

The very same

Why would you not want me to get caught up on the percentages?  That was my whole point to get caught up on the percentages.  Yes, I know that people have total discretion regarding what they do, and even if they do dumb stuff, but if we give analysis regarding different kinds of ways to think about the matter, then we are discussing and hopefully being helpful to people (and sure maybe even helpful to myself to go through the exercise).

Percentages are useful in some cases, less so in discussions like this. A house is $X, You have BTCY which is worth $Z, you are probably targeting particular values to own or buy. Percentages are not especially meaningful in these contexts.

The question is "should they be happy with what they still have?" which can only be answered on a personal level.

That's ridiculously a different topic than what I was attempting to discuss... so just seems weird that you want to go there.

Not really. I just recontextualized it. If you got why I said what I did about percentages, this follows on. I never look at my sells in terms of percentages, merely if I am happy with the amount of $ I am getting for my BTC and whether I am happy with the amount of BTC I have remaining (though it would always be nice to have more, of course).

[Richy_T]

Everyone spare yourselves from Matrix 4

Not gonna say more about it

There were a 2 and 3? /s

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lightfoot]

Everyone spare yourselves from Matrix 4

Not gonna say more about it

Aw fuck. Another waste of film?

I never saw Matrix 2 or 3 and in a way I am glad. The Matrix was true lightning in a bottle and I feel if I watch the sequels I will somehow overwrite my memories.

[Gachapin]

Everyone spare yourselves from Matrix 4

Not gonna say more about it

Let me guess...

Neo is now a Mexican tranny in a wheelchair and Morpheus fights against the omnipotent white patriarchy together with the Smiths ??

[lightfoot]

Bitcoins spent well.
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rk9rhe/i_sold_9_bitcoin_over_the_past_3_months/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

I've been thinking about this. Back in the old days I did buy a 928 Porsche for 2btc (~5k) and to be honest I don't regret the choice: The car has brought me a lot of pleasure, it looks good, and those years were better with the car than without. Granted I could buy one now for .1btc but those 5 years of enjoyment are gone no matter what.

Truth be told, the movie "In Time" and thinking like this is making me realize that the true value *is* time. Every day you work in a job that sucks is another day shaved off your life. Items of shoddy quality that require your time to buy/use improperly/junk when they break really suck time. Lousy relationships suck time. Your time. The time that is draining away from you every day.

Like... tears in rain.

So if this guy spent some coins to make his life better and more worth living and leaving him with more quality to his time, then more power to him.

Hm.

[Toxic2040]

the 2021 winter solstice wall report


#dyor

4h


D

#stronghands



----

Happy Holidays everyone.

[eXPHorizon]

Tesla proposed that electromagnetic waves had little to no effect on the phenomenon of light production. Although he agreed that his apparatus gave off some EM waves, he theorized that they were blotted out after they had traveled a short distance from the transmitter. This, he assumed, was because by the time their necessary frequency could be reached, the conductor would become opaque to the passage of the waves. The only reasonable explanation to the cause of the phenomenon was an electrostatic effect. Tesla then went on to demonstrate that these electrostatic waves could be used to light wireless light bulbs before a spell-bound audience. The concept was so far ahead of its time that the people in the auditorium literally started panicking and running out the doors because they thought he was doing the devil's work. His demonstrations would introduce the basic principles to the wireless transmission of energy we all use today in our everyday lives.


Moral of the Story:

Always ignore the Trolls and Naysayers , go with the Darers and people who are willing to Do The Extraordinary.