Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Not a religious person myself, but nevertheless, * MERRY CHRISTMAS * to all WO brethren. Health, happiness and prosperity to all. The last part is mainly King Daddy's job, so may your Bitcoin wallets get fatter and fatter and be worth more and more in the years to come!

There are pretty decent chances that even withdrawing at around 10% per year will still allow a bitcoin wallet to become fatter and fatter in terms of its fiat value..

Some have asserted that 100% per year have pretty good odds of happening over the coming 10 years, and sure that might end up being true, one of the problems would be withdrawing at high rates during down periods and not really knowing which points are the down points...

Of course, there are quite a few of us who are not quite ready to enter into any kind of practice of withdrawing any of our bitcoin - no matter the withdrawal rate.. and just let the BTC keep accumulating or holding steady with the passage of time. so those BTC holdings will likely get fatter and fatter in terms of the fiat value and surely some of those folks are still adding BTC along the way to get to a certain threshold prior to beginning any kind of withdrawal process.. so in theory, even if it could be quite sustainable to withdraw at 10% per year, there may be some folks who want to error on the side of BTC portfolio size preservation because of views that bitcoin has been and likely will continue to serve as the most valuable of assets to hang onto, so in that regard, if they are withdrawing any BTC from their holdings (converting into fiat or otherwise) they may well be working their way up to 10% per year at a gradual and incremental pace, so maybe they would withdraw somewhere between 1-4% per year for a few years and then 5% to 9% for a few years and then at some point feeling comfortable enough to start to withdraw at something like 10% per year... and still be sustainable at that withdrawal level.. no problema.. no problema..

Merry Christmas to you too AlcoHoDL and other WOs who are reading the thread during these holidays.

Get ready for +$200K next year!

Current situation on Wall Street Market Cycle......

New phase called "Belief-Denial" located just above "Optimism" and below "Belief"



I am predicting next blow-off top near May 2022. Since it didn't happen already this year.

Same thoughts here: Late Q1 - early Q2 we're going parabolic!  

There could be some truth that there is a need for the BTC price to go into a kind of ramping-up prior to just entering into a blow-off top, yet one of the problems of trying to assert that the blow-off top would more likely to occur in late Q1 or early Q2 is the fact that we have already been having a kind of mini-ramping up that has been happening since about early August (and sure we had a 39% correction along the way.. but still) that could end up starting to go more and more UPpity until it turns into vertical, and sure it does not have to take 3 months or longer to play out... but whatever, it's not really unreasonable to consider that there are still a quite a few more weak hands that could be shaken out in the ballpark of these current BTC prices in the upper $40ks and lower $50ks which thereby justify taking a bit longer time to get to an actual blow off top.. whereever that price point (and timepiont) actually might be..

And sure I am also on the page as you serveria that blow-off tops are not too damned likely to disappear from bitcoin's price dynamics anytime in the near future.. and they are just a part of the ongoing manipulation that happens in these kinds of free markets involving a new asset class like bitcoin.. push down the price as low as you can and for as long as you can, then it ends up that you cannot stop it or slow it down once it starts going too much in the UPpity direction.. just part of what has happened and likely to continue to happen these days.. and not likely to stop any time soon..


.. and how far it goes up before it can be brought back into some kind of controllable range is still to be seen..

Is it going to be a mere 2x to 4x from here or do we end up having another 8x to 30x from here... either scenario could end up playing out.. and sure the lower end of the scale does seem more reasonable and more likely, but since when has king daddy either been reasonable or can we expect the greatest wealth transfer in history to play out without a few more "surprises" along the way. ... the most impact of our likely ongoing surprises are for the naysayers, fence sitters..,  and of course, the shitcoin pumpeners.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

is it going to be a mere 2x to 4x from here or do we end up having another 8x to 30x from here... either scenario could end up playing out..

I've only got small needs, so I'd settle for a modest 8x from here.

[JayJuanGee]

Sadly, I also feel the same. It would have been so much better for him to be a man about it and admit defeat. But instead of facing the facts, he seems to be moving the goalposts on every failure. OK, he may now be selling fewer PlanB hats, but that's his own problem. Bitcoin is fully alive and kicking last time I checked.

For me, the best "model" is the White Paper itself. Halving = supply reduction by half / 4-year period. That's enough for me to know for a fact that "it's going up forever, Laura!" That's a qualitative assessment that's good enough for me. As for quantitative, short-term, Crystal Ball^TM predictive models, I'll leave those to the resident magicians, purely for amusement purposes, with the occasional collateral damage (read: mindrust events caused by masterluc).

No plan is flawless. We haven't developed psychohistory yet. When the model breaks, adjust it.

Yes, but his Twitter posts show arrogance and inability to stand up to his own earlier tweets about his S2F model being invalid if price does not reach $100k in 2021. In that sense, one could take any equation, adjust it to fit any short-term trend, keep adjusting ad-infinitum and call it a model of everything.

Edit (post-Syke's merit): Having said the above, I don't mind PlanB's work, it has its purpose and value, but IMHO, should not be taken very seriously. He's essentially attempting to predict a non-deterministic, noisy system being affected by more parameters that anyone can process. Short-term predictions of such systems are Crystal Ball^TM material in my book. It's good as a Hopium source though, and I've used it in the past to get my "fix", but it seems the drug is not as potent as it used to be...

I do agree that sometimes PlanB has been too strict in both his assertion of what needs to happen and also what would break his model.  His model is still good and even his discussion of the model does have tendencies to both educate people and attempt them to better understand where we have been, where we are at and where we might be going even if he sometimes seems way too locked into various things that have to happen blah blah blah.

I think that the discussion of 1 or 2 deviations from the mean is helpful, and even some considerations regarding how long we might be able to stay 1 or 2 deviations from the mean and to allow the model to still be valid or a justification that either the mean has to come down or that some of the various presumptions in the model are not correct (that still may well fall quite far from short of actually invalidating the model).

I think that it is a good thing that PlanB continues to comment and defend and even seem to back away from aspects of his model on a fairly regular basis, even if people accuse him of moving the goal posts in terms of some of the seeming contradictions in his ongoing explanations.. and I see no reason for him to give up.. and not even close to any need for him to give up on the model..

Maybe if we get quite a bit into the third year of the post halvening (this halvening period - which third year would start around April 2022) and we are still below $100k and if we had not even gone above $100k by then, there might be some needs to change the "as is" aspect of the model...

...so for me, we still quite far from the model being even close to broken.. even if it may well be pretty obviously underperforming in the past couple of months and even though there are a lot of folks whining about the BTC price NOT being high enough blah blah blah.. and if some of these whiners were only relying on the S2F model for their BTC price expectations, then maybe they are going to end up selling all or some of their lillie fiends, and then find out that the model was NOT as far off as they had perceived it to have been and in other words pretty damned close enough in terms of horseshoes and handgrenades and no need to hit the exact spot... . even if such model had seemed to have had been so very far off blah blah blah..

. and for example, if we ONLY end up experiencing a halvenigng average of $80k rather than $100k or some other price average that ends up falling quite below $100k.. which seems like a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT to me... but hey.. who am I besides a PlanB (at least his model) quasi-sycophant... and I could give a ratt's ass about what peeps might conjecture about my too much willingness to continue to defend PlanB and his model and his supposed goal post shifting whine whine whine... .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[El duderino_]

[tertius993]

is it going to be a mere 2x to 4x from here or do we end up having another 8x to 30x from here... either scenario could end up playing out..

I've only got small needs, so I'd settle for a modest 8x from here.

Merited as that made me smile … though I bet there are 100 other scenarios that are equally as likely …

[philipma1957]

is it going to be a mere 2x to 4x from here or do we end up having another 8x to 30x from here... either scenario could end up playing out..

I've only got small needs, so I'd settle for a modest 8x from here.

Merited as that made me smile … though I bet there are 100 other scenarios that are equally as likely …

Yeah but only one is correct.

The correct on is that the 50k number is = to the $950  number of jan 2017

we loose about 21x from jan 2017 to dec 2017

so we go 21x from dec 2021 to nov 2022

21x x 50k = $1,050,000  you read it here first.

All a result of the  covid-19 elongation of the common 4 year cycle theory.


WTFN?

At JJG you can pick at this if you please. But I know that just like me you want this theory  to be the right one.


to all wo people if you have 1 BTC you are in the top 19,000,000 btc holders by default. actually much better ranking as that assumes every btc holder has exactly 1 coin.


to understand this better 1% of 8 billion is 80 million

so if you have 1 BTC you are in the top  0.25%  of the world by default and it is actually better since the btc is not spread perfectly at all.

[jojo69]

wtf?

[PoolMinor]

A little secret which the government doesn't want to disclose to the general public



But like inflation they can't hide it anymore and they are just piece of paper not backed up by anything and most importantly US government irrelevant policies have destabilize the economy and Bitcoin can save them but still they will issue such useless statements.

Unfortunately for this video the narrative is to purchase gold  , though they admit that the price is heavily manipulated.

If one were to replace their arguments with BTC, the video will hold a lot more value. Teaches a fair amount of how the Federal Reserve being the global standard and no longer tied to gold instantly made all currency of the world "fiat" (backed by nothing but promises).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJd6RKsY5H4

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Common buddy

Boost us up

[philipma1957]

Common buddy

Boost us up

I am drinking a pot of hazelnut coffee right now and picturing a buddy lift past 55555.55

[El duderino_]

Common buddy

Boost us up

I am drinking a pot of hazelnut coffee right now and picturing a buddy lift past 55555.55

You are easily satisfied 

I’m picturing 135k to start with

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

It's sad really.  Because he came up with a glorious model.  And even from the beginning of it all he said all models break.

All he needs to do is shrug is shoulders and say "Well damn, the model has broken earlier than I thought it would."  And THEN get about the business of trying to explain why, or adjusting the model somehow to possibly be accurate into the future.  Not move the goalposts, but openly try to improve the model...  And the whole world would listen to him because he earned some serious credibility with S2F.

He could even do less than that, like say "Yeah my 100k by December" stand was a foolish and capricious move that actually ignores the way this model works (because it is and was)"  And then point out that the model has still not been invalidated entirely.

Basically what he is doing now, but with humility rather than the whole "Well here is what I really always meant" line which 7 year olds can see.

It reminds me of the constant gaslighting, redefinition, and post moving that corrupt politicians and narcissists do.

Or people like CSW or Roger Ver: "BCash will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" BSV will take over and put an end to Bitcoin!" "Follow me, listen to me! I know something that you don't!"

I mean srsly, aren't we over listening to, or even following, these types by now?

Do people really need to follow false prophets in order to invest in and be bullish on something? To be lead by the collar? Bitcoin is self-explanatory, it needs no leaders or prophets. Either you get it, or you don't.

I feel like if Michael Saylor woke up tomorrow and said he no longer believed in Bitcoin and said he was going to sell it all, 99% of his acolyte followers would all sheepishly sell their bitcoin as well. This is the state of the world we live in now.

You are really full of shit today, Torque.  PlanB is not even close to Roger Ver and/or Craig Wright.  And people are not following Saylor as if they (we) were lemmings.  Many of us have been in Bitcoin way the fuck longer than either of those newbs, and we can appreciate the newbs for articulating ideas pretty damned well and clearly , including their abilities to provide evidence to back up their ideas.  So it doesn’t even matter if some of them are newer to the space or maybe we have some divergences in our comparative opinions.   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Makes you think what billionaire schmucks listen to us while we say : "it's going up!" ... "it's going down!" .... "I'm full in in <Shiba-Sh!tcoin>" ... "I'm full of "Dog(e)-Sh!t>!!!!" ... or whatever we have ever advertised. (Red & Green dildos that hack your computer and steal your bitcoin while you do a USB update for it to vibrate more potently??!!!)))

We got 99% of that number as followers. This is like our own 'Twatter' account with that many millions of subscribers.

So..... LISTEN BOYS!!! I GOT A PLAN!!! ... LET'S TROLL EVERYBODY ROYALLY FOR THE NEXT F^CKING 500 YEARS!!!