Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

I'm not sure I understand what all the fuss is about Bitcoin or any other crypto blockchain having complete privacy of transactions.

[BobLawblaw]

There is no bot that can balance the channels?

Yes. They all suck, and don't work very well right now on large nodes.

'perfectly-balanced' and 'rebalance-lnd' being the two scripts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Here is some 'dubious speculation' as Ben Cowen calls it:

In 2018 we first moved to an approx $6.2K plateau (from the $19.78K peak), which was about 68.65% decline from the top.
Then, we precipitously declined another 50% to bottom out at $3.1K.
This time, we did not have a blow-off top.
Assuming that btc decline to $42K plateau is Stage 1 (39% decline instead of 68.65% decline in the prior cycle), then, adjusting Stage 2 for the magnitude of Stage 1 decline, gives me approx 25% decline to about 30K as a worst case scenario. That said, we already traveled to 30K and even slightly lower, suggesting that we are already in a long term consolidation. Down to 30K is possible, but, unless something goes horribly wrong, it should be it.

Not going to speculate on upside because there is basically no limit now that we are mostly out of 4 year cycle dominance and into, hopefully, usage dominance.

That's a weird way of framing everything... first starting off from the December 2017 peak.. seems just weird and maybe even self-defeatist.. and failing/refuse to appreciate more overall representative prices, not that the December 2017 peak did not have some bearing, including a need to return to it three years later... ... but surely we should not be writing off those three years.. and what happened therein, but then also the kind of weird and flamboyant way that bitcoin went past the December 2017 peak.. I mean really did not spend very much time between $10k and $30k.. when passing through in late 2020.. and not even saying that we have to go back there in spite that recent passage.. and now all of a sudden (another year and a half later) the 200-week moving average is just going above that same $20k price point.

I cannot really disagree with you that we already revisited $30k around 3 times (1) January 2021, 2) May/June/July 2021, and 3) January 23, 2022).. but you are now currently suggesting that $30k would have to be a pretty solid bottom, even though you had been insisting that we needed to visit $20k and perhaps below $20k when we were testing the lower $30ks in May/June/July.   I understand, we are 6-7 months later, so in that regard, you are probably right to change your mind because the bottom has likely moved up.. and I doubt that there are many folks who are not considering that there is quite a bit of support in the lower $30ks.. but then the question remains whether it will hold or not because we are not really that far away from it... and we been there a few times... 

You are also now suggesting that this $40k is a kind of solid bottom that compares with the $6k price point in 2018.. so surely we could get a break down from it.. so therefore back to $30k again.. but then again we have already been to $30k.. so we may not need to go back down there again (that's your kind of getting more bullish part.. and suggesting the bear market (to the extent that it ever existed) is over)..

In some sense, you are coming off as more bullish than me, but you are also coming off as a wee bit whimsical in terms of just throwing out strange frames.... I will agree that $30k is a pretty solid bottom so long as we are in a bull market.. because it is the 100-week moving average, but if we end up being in a bear market, then $20k would be the bottom... still because that is the 200-week moving average.. and yeah, I believe that we are not in a bear market, yet.. even though our ongoing corrections are pretty strong.. and surely, continued down pressures and even staying down could end up triggering a testing of lower $30ks that may or may not end up holding, depending on if it ends up being coupled with other scary macro-events - and it seems that TPTB are never ending in their abilities to keep screwing things up and acting like they have things under control when they do not.

So bitcoin is not controlled or lead by mainstream macro-factors, but in the short-term those matters can play out that way.. and bitcoin could end up getting played in some of those circumstances - even though there can be opportunities that develop in which some bullwhales and even bitcoin retail can end up fucking some of the traditional status quo institutions that are playing around too much with their ongoing naked shorting of bitcoin - and yeah those matters end up blowing up in their face.. but I have no clue about if some of those kinds of dynamics could end up playing out, even if some of them likely realize that their fractional reserve playing bitcoin does run some of those risks.. but maybe they are so arrogant that they are willing to play those games anyhow... thinking that they got it all figure out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

BUT the need for privacy is also quite real, and we are best off when we are aware of the situation.  Privacy in Bitcoin use is a VERY important issue.  And at the risk of being Batslapped... there is a reason Monero has taken BTC's market in many of the dark net sites...

Yeah overall I see what your saying in your post. But... I feel like your last statement above is a little bit back to that of a typical Bitcoiner who disregards everything I said #1-#3 in my post above. It's the dodge of the elephant, again.

Case in point: Monero users might have private transactions (or so they believe, wink wink), but the goods and services they are buying with it, or the fiat conversions they are doing, are being monitored and tracked by the establishment. So then what's the point? How is that really private? I heard a story a while back of a bodybuilder that used Monero to purchase steroids. He/she thought their transaction was private, but the FBI still tracked the illegal mail package to their house and arrested them. The "privacy" of the transaction made zero difference, they got caught anyway. I'm sure the same has happened to people trying to use Monero to buy illegal drugs, guns, shady services, etc.

Regarding the idea of countries splitting into smaller municipalities..the trend is certainly in that direction.
Whether it would be formalized as depicted in "Snow Crash" or not remains to be seen.

I read an interesting article about how people are moving to stay with populations that are 'more like them'.

Call me crazy, but I purposely moved to a certain state to live out my days for exactly this reason. I already see the writing on the wall in terms of where things are heading, and it ain't good.

I honestly think we are taking past each other really...  I recognize that privacy is a spectrum, and any transaction has parts that are not at all private.  I just see the fundamental design of Bitcoin as something that is going to cause some issues for people when they read pseudonymous as anonymous.

[cAPSLOCK]

#LNMETA

Closed all my channels. Shutting it down.

Given everything going on in my life, managing a LN node is more negative, parasitic energy that has complicated my life beyond any rational measure.

I need to step away, for my own mental health and sanity.

Respect.  No reason to let something like that stress you out when you can just use something like Muun wallet perfectly well, and get along just fine on lightning. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

Price looks like crap again, maybe we are heading to 35k this weekend after all, I thought it was likely considering the current environment, but was hoping I was wrong. I still reckon we'll get a bump upwards next week when it becomes far more evident that Russia won't be invading anyone. Fed FUD should be all over after next month as well, markets go shit till the first interest rate increase, but afterwards they usualy head up. Of course, being that the economy is now heading towards a recession and global supply issues have peaked there won't be many rises.

Mark my words, this time next year I reckon the Fed will be talking about low inflation being an issue again.

[aysg76]

Buddy are we heading backwards again? Oh nobody wants to get derail and the final destination is way ahead so please speed up and end this $30-$40k station gameplay man


Although I am mostly very calm but this is exactly how I want to behave with people who talks shit about Bitcoin knowing nothing about it and claiming to be most smart people but in reality they don't know anything and btc don't give a damn f*ck about it so think before you speak :



The shitcoiners enjoying their home on lake side views seems really fantastic and this is actually true :



When this will be over will see how many bitcoin obituaries we have gained as additional to 444 at the moment but then those people will be dead inside.

HOLD STRONG WO BROTHERS

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[somac.]

HOLD STRONG WO BROTHERS

I'm not satisfied with just doing that, at these levels I'll be buying every payday as well.

Bitcoin shows time and time again that these kind of sales don't last very long.

[El duderino_]

#LNMETA

Closed all my channels. Shutting it down.

Given everything going on in my life, managing a LN node is more negative, parasitic energy that has complicated my life beyond any rational measure.

I need to step away, for my own mental health and sanity.

HODL, sell if needed, live the retirement life in FULL….

[modrobert]

Case in point: Monero users might have private transactions (or so they believe, wink wink), but the goods and services they are buying with it, or the fiat conversions they are doing, are being monitored and tracked by the establishment. So then what's the point? I heard an example a while back of a bodybuilder that used Monero to purchase steroids. He/she thought their transaction was private, but the FBI still tracked the illegal mail package to their house and arrested them. The "privacy" of the transaction made zero difference, they got caught anyway. I'm sure the same has happened to people trying to use Monero to buy illegal drugs.

Would love if you proved me wrong but I think Monero advocates like Monero because transactions themselves are harder to trace and do not care as much about the packages they receive.  Say a local shop accepts Monero for their goods.  You can shop for anything you like, pay offline and nobody would know you have been there.  With Bitcoin this gets more difficult as your public address is left there as a footprint and Blockchain Analysis tools become very handy.  I love Bitcoin, it is great but when I feel like not giving up my privacy, I use Monero.  I used to do Coin Joins instead but found out that mixing and Coin Joining makes me look like a criminal more than using Monero directly does.

Personally, I am using Monero to run away from data collection and control.  I do not care if FBI tracks an Amazon parcel to my home address, I just hate letting them build a clear ledger of every thing I do with every penny I own.  Sure, there is an invoice with my name and address on it, but it gets harder for them to connect the ends financially and yet nothing illegal is in the middle of it.  I use cash, same reason.  I avoid using loyalty cards as well because I do not want corps to know my shopping habits and budget.  I see loyalty cards as intrusive and not worth the discounts I get for the data they collect on me.

What I typically hate is that we got to automatically link Monero to illegality in our brains.  It is not like that.  I just want my actions to be private.  I do not use private messaging applications for drug deals.  I want to tell my friends anything without ever fearing someone may listen.  Canadian protestors are getting knocks on their door for liking posts on Facebook groups.  Why would I bother with all of this and be part of it?  Why bother when I can mind my own business instead?  I use cash all the time and nobody cares but most start caring if I look for a private Cryptocurrency.  Why?  Call me old school, I may be but I love it.

I am simply against data collection and centralization.  You say you can not hide Monero to fiat transactions because there is a record on your banking statement, but have you considered some users are doing peer to peer Monero to fiat transactions?  You can disconnect from the centralized and build a more private life.  I am trying to avoid banks as much as possible.  Totally or partially disconnecting, it is your choice.  To me, even disconnecting from social media is a big step.  The worst part is giving up comfort for privacy, but I have to admit I feel so much better and free when I know my life, actions, hobbies, habits are not being monitored on a 24 7 basis.

Bitcoin definitely helps.  I will repeat, I love it and it still is a beast.  I just use Bitcoin and Monero the same way I use card and cash.  Bitcoin and card for transactions I do not care about enough.  Monero and cash for when I want the transaction to be my own business.  Porn subscription?  Grocery shopping?  Taxi?  A date out in the city?  I do not need them authorities to know what porn I watch, which legumes I eat, in which city I've been today or where I ate.

And yes, I do know the number of places you can use Monero at is still very limited.  You can barely use Bitcoin anywhere, let alone Monero.  This post is just my mindset spoken out loud.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

I agree with this, and would like to add; privacy should be the norm, not the other way around as it is now.  No one needs to defend or explain why they need privacy, the ones who constantly track and store all user activity indefinitely need to explain and be transparent.

Regarding banks and big exchanges, they can be avoided by using cash and trade for Bitcoin/Lightning with individuals, there are online rating/reputation systems to keep this type of trading reasonably safe, although it's probably best to deal with sums you can afford to lose. The Bitcoin wallet transactions can be tracked on the block chain, but it is possible to keep the wallet owner anonymous with some effort/strategy. I haven't checked the privacy when using Lightning in depth, it depends if channel nodes are being tracked/logged. The longer Lightning channels are open before finalized in the Bitcoin block chain, the harder it gets to untangle any individual transactions, that would be my assumption. In any case, there is a growing market for privacy, Lightning will improve over time. When using AES (Rijndael) encryption you have mixing rounds, perhaps that could be implemented in a topological way (thinking about channel constructs) to make Lightning very hard to track even in the case when some nodes are logged.

[jbreher]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Before you get all mad at me, and Batslap me... I am NOT making a case for a shitcoin.  I am just being honest about a feature of bitcoin that we need to come to grips with, and the sooner we do the better.

Careful there, brother - you're deviating from the anointed canon. You might be drawn and quartered over the coals.

[jbreher]

Not only is Bitcoin NOT fungible it is ABSOLUTELY NOT fungible from a pure mathematical aspect.  EVERY satoshi has a pedigree.  You can trace it's origin all the way to the coinbase it was initially realized in.  And you can see the trail of addresses it is passed through to wherever it currently rests.

Not really. When you combine inputs you make the source indeterminate. Coins may taint coins they're mixed with if you want to take that view but that's something different.

From a statist's viewpoint, you've just tanked every coin involved in the join.

Cheers!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation