Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Wexlike]

Putin could end this, but he's not the man he used to be. He was known to be rational with his decisions, but i can't see any rationality here. I guess that ongoing isolation in the fear of SARS-CoV-2 messed with his brain.
I feel sorry for everyone involved and having to suffer, regardless of nationality. This war is completely unnecessary. It's the result of a couple of complex happenings, from the pandemic, to various (also inter-) national political parties, economic forces and their shared weakness of corruption, and not to forget: Foreign influential agendas carried out over the course of years.

Sanity seems to become even more scarce than Bitcoin. (To stay a wee little bit on topic.)

Yeah, to be honest this whole situation is just plain baffling. It really doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense.

Sure it does. Just follow the money and the monetary incentives for an invasion of Ukraine, and everything falls into place.

For the people? No, it absolutely doesn't make any sense.

Care to explain a little more ?

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[degxtra1]

Sure it does. Just follow the money and the monetary incentives for an invasion of Ukraine, and everything falls into place.

For the people? No, it absolutely doesn't make any sense.

Care to explain a little more ?

I'm curious too.

[goldkingcoiner]

Russia began active preparations for disconnection from the global Internet

this might affect Bitcoin.

Short term will be affected by FUD.
Long term, mining becomes easier. However the easier mining might drive the price down due to supply going up and demand (from Russia) dropping.
Russian coiners will be forced to hodl their bags maybe indefinitely.

I see good things long term. Short term quite the dippo.

[Toxic2040]

Are you just making shit up, ToxicMoxic?

most of the time, yes...havent found a play book yet that explains how this is all supposed to go     just observing and reporting what I see juansnowgee

There is no absolute formula in terms of what has to happen before king daddy is able to go up, especially to suggest that it has to have some kind of opposite correlation to shitcoins.. and the extent to which there is correlation or not to shitcoins is all over the place.  Much of the time they are hanging onto bitcoin's coattails until they are not.

Another thing.  Remember April to June 2019?  Do you believe that supports your point?  I don't think so.  in early 2019, there were a lot of folks suggesting that bitcoin was going to have to suffer with the purgening of the froth of alts.. and that shit did not happen.  Bitcoin pumped and the shitcoins largely stayed stagnant.. who fucking knows what the shitcoins did because who was paying attention?

Anyhow my point is that there is no "x has to happen to shitcoins before bitcoin can pump".. that's nonsense, and you should realize that by now.  Sure shit can happen including bitcoin and shitcoins going down together, but I am not going to presume that to be any kind of condition precedent - especially given the overall state of affairs at the moment.. whether considering what is going on with shitcoins, considering what is going on with macro-circumstances, and considering where bitcoin happens to be in its cycle (to the extent that anyone happens to believe in such "cycle" existing) and any other potentially relevant factors that I have not mentioned (mining anyone?). 

whilst i agree in theory the proof is in the pudding as is said


so we are not in a bear market...yet the last quarter sure looks like the beginning of one    performance in a time of crisis when you would think everyone would flock towards a store of value has not been observed...in fact the opposite has been

if you think bitcoin can pump to $100k on its premise as a store of value and drag all the other shitcoins up into billions of dollars of valuation go for it     I personally think most of the alts have zero value..and at most maybe a tenth of their observed market cap     its not very realistic that these other projects just automatically go up or down in price because bitcoin does is it?   I dont know..just seems like something needs work there

so bitcoin pumps, alts pump...and then all of a sudden everyone wants to convert their alts that just pumped into bitcoin   do you think all those swaps can be supported?...because it could stack up fast

in fact I really dont care about the fiat price...we all know its worthless..or will be...its the ratio between bitcoin and alts that seems like it needs purging

its all very circular imo with no easy answers     if you find any please post asap   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Russia began active preparations for disconnection from the global Internet

this might affect Bitcoin.

Short term will be affected by FUD.
Long term, mining becomes easier. However the easier mining might drive the price down due to supply going up and demand (from Russia) dropping.
Russian coiners will be forced to hodl their bags maybe indefinitely.

I see good things long term. Short term quite the dippo.

They are not taking into account border towns that can catch wifi & 5G from the air. Also, the people that cross a border into any of other neighboring countries, no one can stop them from downloading a video and uploading it into the network anonymously or to just buy a sim card from the other country and have signal for miles off the border.     

[JayJuanGee]

Are you just making shit up, ToxicMoxic?

most of the time, yes...havent found a play book yet that explains how this is all supposed to go     just observing and reporting what I see juansnowgee

Fair enough.. but sometimes, you just seem to really go out on a limb.. that's for sure... or should we refer to it as fantasylandia?... hahahahahaa

snap out of it



snap out of it




you fuck


  (nohomo)

There is no absolute formula in terms of what has to happen before king daddy is able to go up, especially to suggest that it has to have some kind of opposite correlation to shitcoins.. and the extent to which there is correlation or not to shitcoins is all over the place.  Much of the time they are hanging onto bitcoin's coattails until they are not.

Another thing.  Remember April to June 2019?  Do you believe that supports your point?  I don't think so.  in early 2019, there were a lot of folks suggesting that bitcoin was going to have to suffer with the purgening of the froth of alts.. and that shit did not happen.  Bitcoin pumped and the shitcoins largely stayed stagnant.. who fucking knows what the shitcoins did because who was paying attention?

Anyhow my point is that there is no "x has to happen to shitcoins before bitcoin can pump".. that's nonsense, and you should realize that by now.  Sure shit can happen including bitcoin and shitcoins going down together, but I am not going to presume that to be any kind of condition precedent - especially given the overall state of affairs at the moment.. whether considering what is going on with shitcoins, considering what is going on with macro-circumstances, and considering where bitcoin happens to be in its cycle (to the extent that anyone happens to believe in such "cycle" existing) and any other potentially relevant factors that I have not mentioned (mining anyone?). 

whilst i agree in theory the proof is in the pudding as is said

Does not seem to be the correct expression... but hey.. go ahead.. 'splain ur lil selfie, if you must.

so we are not in a bear market...yet the last quarter sure looks like the beginning of one    performance in a time of crisis when you would think everyone would flock towards a store of value has not been observed...in fact the opposite has been

I don't know if that is a healthy way of looking at the matter.  Surely bitcoin remains a bit of it's own beast and does not really fit traditional definitions regarding bear/bull market - and of course, if any of us can get ahead of figuring out that we have transitioned into a bear market, then surely, that could be quite profitable kind of knowledge... but part of the problem is that BTC's price momentum has a large variety of factors.. and yeah, there have been people asserting that we have transitioned to a bear market since May 2021, then it appeared that maybe that was not correct until about late November 2021, and then the bear market proclamations started coming out again.. so yeah.. the longer that the BTC price stays down, there tends to be some depressing aspects that end up interfering with the uppity momentum and also converting our corrections into longer lived events.. and surely, we have been having some quite extensive corrections that's for sure.. that even causes the most bullish of bitcoiners to start to conclude that we might not be in kansas anymore (flippant way of referring to not being in a bull market anymore).

if you think bitcoin can pump to $100k on its premise as a store of value and drag all the other shitcoins up into billions of dollars of valuation go for it     

I was not making any prediction.. I was merely criticizing you for your assertion about some kind of supposed "need" for bitcoin to decouple from the various crap that is out there.. yeah.. maybe there should be (or could be) a decoupling and maybe there is not.. but a "need" seems a bit much to be asserting coming from uie poo-ie.. When you say that bitcoin "needs to" decouple from shitcoins, then you are placing a pretty damned high (I believe too high) set of certainty regarding what you believe needs to happen.. that's all that I was saying.. that you were coming off as too certain regarding what you believe needs to happen.

I personally think most of the alts have zero value..and at most maybe a tenth of their observed market cap     its not very realistic that these other projects just automatically go up or down in price because bitcoin does is it?   I dont know..just seems like something needs work there

We've been seeing that kind of froth for the past 7 years, at least... and sure from time to time, there is a bit of a reckoning of the froth.. but still the froth seems to persist too.. so just seems like dreamlandia to believe that justice is going to come into the world all of a sudden.. I am a sceptic.. even though I do not disagree with the wish that such a thing would happen... in other words you seem to be getting too much into the prescriptive rather than descriptive in terms of your describing what you believe is going to happen or likely to happen.

so bitcoin pumps, alts pump...and then all of a sudden everyone wants to convert their alts that just pumped into bitcoin   do you think all those swaps can be supported?...because it could stack up fast

I think that it is all over the place, and I am neither going to dabble in that bullshit or desire to spend much if any of my brainpower (to the extent that I have any) thinking about the multitude of directions that those crazy-ass ongoing frothy matters might go.

in fact I really dont care about the fiat price...we all know its worthless..or will be...its the ratio between bitcoin and alts that seems like it needs purging

Ok.  there could be purging of the shitcoin froth in the next 1-3 months or maybe even lasting a year or so, as you suggest, or maybe there is no purging for a few years or maybe there is no purging for 20 years.... or 50 years... I am not really disagreeing with you that it may well come and it may well get nasty.. yet another problematic aspect is that you are now suggesting that king daddy has to somehow be wedded to whether such purgening happens or not? or when it happens?  It seems to me, like I already said several times, that king daddy can pump whether shitcoins are purged or not.

its all very circular imo with no easy answers     if you find any please post asap   

I am not claiming to have the answer.  I was merely criticizing for your because you proclaim to have the answer.. which probably has about a 50/50 chance of being correct... or maybe your particular answer has higher odds, such as 70/30, but it is no where even near the certainty that it "must" or "need to" happen that you were proclaiming to be the case.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

-snipped-

Fair enough.. but sometimes, you just seem to really go out on a limb.. that's for sure... or should we refer to it as fantasylandia?... hahahahahaa

snap out of it



snap out of it




you fuck


  (nohomo)

+1 WOsMerit

-snipped-

I am not claiming to have the answer.  I was merely criticizing for your because you proclaim to have the answer.. which probably has about a 50/50 chance of being correct... or maybe your particular answer has higher odds, such as 70/30, but it is no where even near the certainty that it "must" or "need to" happen that you were proclaiming to be the case.

poor choice of words and emotions are running high...there is no doubt      bitcoin will do what it always has done...what it wants to do    i know this Jay

i did however, put all my biases into what i said....and for sure way too many assertions....apologies        it does not make my concerns or observations less valid i think

[lightfoot]

Russia began active preparations for disconnection from the global Internet

this might affect Bitcoin.

Short term will be affected by FUD.
Long term, mining becomes easier. However the easier mining might drive the price down due to supply going up and demand (from Russia) dropping.
Russian coiners will be forced to hodl their bags maybe indefinitely.

I see good things long term. Short term quite the dippo.

They are not taking into account border towns that can catch wifi & 5G from the air. Also, the people that cross a border into any of other neighboring countries, no one can stop them from downloading a video and uploading it into the network anonymously or to just buy a sim card from the other country and have signal for miles off the border.     

Well, this is why you depopulate the borders, with a nice no man's land with barbed wire, guns, towers. You know, like old times.

Hm. I just realized.... maybe they took Chernobyl not for the reactor trashpile, but for Duga. Steel yard and that woodpecker sound, that's something I have not thought about for 40+ years now... Wow.

However this sounds more like a DNS trick than actually chainsawing their AS. The former just allows them to block DNS queries that aren't in their .ru domain (which won't do shit of course), the latter really removes them from the net.

BTW if you want to chainsaw these fuckers from your network their IP addresses are here.

https://lite.ip2location.com/russian-federation-ip-address-ranges

They even have downloads in iptables or cisco ACL formats. Or just route their traffic to 127.0.0.1

[ImThour]

Bitcoin Weekly Chart Analysis - 7th March

Positives:
1. Bitcoin is making a Hidden Bullish Divergence i.e. Price going Up, RSI and MACD going down.
2. Bitcoin is close to dynamic support level i.e. 100 EMA
3. MACD is giving a bullish crossover

Concerns:
1. If BTC closes this weekly candle below EMA i.e. 35,907, we might retouch the 200 EMA Weekly i.e. $26k.

Overall: Bullish




Ignore my previous stupid TA's, I have actually taken a TA Course and it has really helped me to be a non-homogenous trader. I have been working on myself and I think, this will help me a lot personally.
Nevertheless, it's my own perspective and can differ from yours. BTC


EDIT: Just after posting this here, I got a really interesting offer from TradingView itself.

[Biodom]

200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.

[ImThour]

200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.

200 EMA of Weekly is at $25,800.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

-snipped-

I am not claiming to have the answer.  I was merely criticizing for your because you proclaim to have the answer.. which probably has about a 50/50 chance of being correct... or maybe your particular answer has higher odds, such as 70/30, but it is no where even near the certainty that it "must" or "need to" happen that you were proclaiming to be the case.

poor choice of words and emotions are running high...there is no doubt      bitcoin will do what it always has done...what it wants to do    i know this Jay

i did however, put all my biases into what i said....and for sure way too many assertions....apologies        it does not make my concerns or observations less valid i think

I am having a hard time with this one... , yet I believe that you deserve a +1 WOsMerit anyhow.. .. Even though supplies of such are limited (scarce, I mean), what the heck. yolo...

200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.

200 EMA of Weekly is at $25,800.

Maybe you have a personal preference for the EMA?  or maybe you learned some new term and you want to throw it in there to just speak in the language of gobbledy-gook?

A lot of us in these parts are not even that excited regarding too much emphasis on TA.. but hey, the thread does not exclude the discussion of TA.. so surely some members want to talk about TA and even to emphasize it... Yet, I don't see why we would want to start referring to the EMA in these here parts when there are a lot of folks who refer to the regular MA to make various points.. and there seems to be a lot of analysis that largely account for the MA (and do not refer to the EMA)... .. and if you are throwing out other references such as the EMA, then maybe it just comes off as gobbledy-gook since many of us have not really looked into it or tried to figure out why we would want to use it.  

If you insist on using the EMA rather than the MA, then maybe you should be pointing out why it is either something that we need to pay attention or that there is some meaning and value in using it, rather than merely seeming to contribute to chaos and confusion.. ...

[Biodom]

200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.

200 EMA of Weekly is at $25,800.

OK, but the confusing part in this is that most of other TA parties/people are using another type (SMA).
Why use EMA, then?

[Toxic2040]

200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.

   EMA gives more weight to current data of a trading period, while SMA calculates the average price data of the entire period.
    Exponential moving average is different from simple moving average in that a given day’s EMA calculation depends on the EMA calculations for all the days prior to that day. You need far more than 10 days of data to calculate a reasonably accurate 10-day EMA.
    Another difference is that the EMA is slightly more sensitive to price changes compared to the simple moving average. High sensitivity makes it possible for traders to identify a trend faster compared to the SMA.

https://www.warriortrading.com/exponential-moving-average/


just as with anything, multiple data inputs are usually better than one    using and understanding different indicators is important in TA imo    there are quite a few flavors of moving averages...smoothed, exponential..simple....I tend to use simple averages most of the time myself when not looking at the clouds

[ImThour]

Why use EMA, then?

Yet, I don't see why we would want to start referring to the EMA in these here parts when there are a lot of folks who refer to the regular MA to make various points.. and there seems to be a lot of analysis that largely account for the MA (and do not refer to the EMA)... .. and if you are throwing out other references such as the EMA, then maybe it just comes off as gobbledy-gook since many of us have not really looked into it or tried to figure out why we would want to use it.  If you insist on using the EMA rather than the MA, then maybe you should be pointing out why it is either something that we need to pay attention or that there is some meaning and value in using it, rather than merely seeming to contribute to chaos and confusion.. ...

I have been using EMA forever and works good for me and is also a good support/resistance level for the BTC in the past.


"Since EMAs place a higher weighting on recent data than on older data, they are more reactive to the latest price changes than SMAs are, which makes the results from EMAs more timely and explains why the EMA is the preferred average among many traders." - https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-simple-exponential-moving-average/

[Toxic2040]

12h


3D

[Biodom]

Why use EMA, then?

Yet, I don't see why we would want to start referring to the EMA in these here parts when there are a lot of folks who refer to the regular MA to make various points.. and there seems to be a lot of analysis that largely account for the MA (and do not refer to the EMA)... .. and if you are throwing out other references such as the EMA, then maybe it just comes off as gobbledy-gook since many of us have not really looked into it or tried to figure out why we would want to use it.  If you insist on using the EMA rather than the MA, then maybe you should be pointing out why it is either something that we need to pay attention or that there is some meaning and value in using it, rather than merely seeming to contribute to chaos and confusion.. ...

I have been using EMA forever and works good for me and is also a good support/resistance level for the BTC in the past.


I have never used MA or SMA in any of my analysis.

"Since EMAs place a higher weighting on recent data than on older data, they are more reactive to the latest price changes than SMAs are, which makes the results from EMAs more timely and explains why the EMA is the preferred average among many traders." - https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-simple-exponential-moving-average/

well, but this makes the phrase 'bitcoin has never gone below 200wk average [for more than a week]" meaningless, as shown in your own chart above, hence it cannot predict the all-important bottom, which is quite important. in fact, the chart shows that you cannot predict almost anything based on 200wk EMA.